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SSP Daily Digest: 8/6

by: jeffmd

Fri Aug 06, 2010 at 12:01 PM EDT


  • CO-Sen: In yet another example of the perils of Citizens United, Americans United for Life, a non-profit anti-abortion group, is endorsing GOPer Jane Norton. Worry not, circular firing squad enthusiasts, as other pro-life groups endorsing Norton's more conservative rival Ken Buck are already hitting back promoting Buck as the pro-lifest option.

  • FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek, seeking to stanch the bleeding of support to Jeff Greene in the Democratic primary, has released an internal poll showing him leading by the slimmest of margins, 36-35, with 8% going to Maurice Ferre and 20% undecided. Meek has three events planned with the Big Dog in the coming weeks - which isn't surprising given Meek did endorse Hillary Clinton for President in 2008.

  • KY-Sen: Braun Research (8/2-4, likely voters):

    Jack Conway (D): 31
    Rand Paul (R): 41
    Undecided: 28
    (MoE: ±3.46%)

    Braun Research is out with another poll in Kentucky, showing a result consistent with other pollsters of a slight lead for mountain-hater Rand Paul.

  • NV-Sen: Sharron Angle's Tour de Crazy continues, as she's now bandying about criticizing gay adoption (which is legal in Nevada) and advocating for the right of religious officials to endorse political candidates - which flies squarely in the face of Section 501(c)(3) of the tax code.

  • CO-Gov: Former state legislator Tom Wiens - last seen briefly running for the Senate seat currently held by Michael Bennet - may have set his sights on the Governor's race as a post-primary option given the utter fail of both GOPers on the ballot, Scott "plagiarist" McInnis and Dan "lien collector" Maes. Wiens claims to have already voted for Scott McInnis, but his follow-up statement that "I voted for Scott McInnis and let's hope things work out" is hardly a ringing endorsement.

  • MN-Gov: Target's CEO, Gregg Steinhafel, is apologizing for the company's recent $150,000 to the shadowy right-wing group Minnesota Forward, which was last seen airing ads in support of the waitstaff-hating, gay-bashing, Christian conservative-cozy GOP nominee, Tom Emmer. The irony in all of this, of course, is that Target is the successor to the Dayton-Hudson Corporation...to which Democratic gube-hopeful Mark Dayton is an heir.

  • AL-05: With many of their members at risk in November, the Blue Dog Coalition senses an opportunity to add to their ranks here, endorsing Dem nominee Steve Raby. The Blue Dog Coalition goes way back in this northern Alabama district, as Bud Cramer - who held this seat until 2008 - was a co-founder of the coalition.

  • ID-01: It's hard to to tell who's campaign's been more amusing, Bill Sali's or Raul Labrador's. The normally GOP-leaning Idaho Associated General Contractors - who even endorsed Bill Sali in 2008 - are opting for Dem Walt Minnick, even citing Minnick's opposition to the stimulus as a point of reservation for the group.

  • TN-08: The dust's hardly settled from last night's bloody GOP three-way...primary, which has fortunately allowed Democratic nominee state Sen. Roy Herron to build up a huge financial advantage. Outside groups are stepping in though, with the conservative-leaning 60 Plus Association dropping $240k in ad buys against Herron in the Memphis, Jackson, and Nashville markets.

  • VA-05: To the disappointment of cat fud lovers everywhere, the teabaggish Jim McKelvey - despite his earlier reluctance - is endorsing the man who beat him in the primary, "moderate" state Sen. Robert Hurt. Fortunately, there's still the teabagging independent in this race, Jeff Clark.

  • WA-08: In a major surprise, the Seattle Times has decided not to endorse incumbent GOPer Dave Reichert, criticizing his constant nay-saying. The Times - which has endorsed Reichert in the past - is instead opting for Microsoft exec Suzan DelBene (D) and Expedia senior manager Tim Dillon (R) in Washington's unusual top two primary.

  • Polling: Daily Kos, after having fired their pollster Research 2000, is back in the polling game, to the delight of Swingnuts everywhere. While Daily Kos has yet to decide on a national pollster, they've settled on the always reliable Public Policy Polling for state-level horserace polling.

  • Rasmussen:
  • CA-Gov: Brown (D) 43%, Whitman (R) 41%
  • MI-Gov: Bernero (D) 37%, Snyder (R) 49%
  • NC-Sen: Marshall (D) 40%, Burr (R) 49%
  • jeffmd :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/6
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    FL-Sen: M-D poll too
    reprint from yesterday's digest

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    The new survey, conducted August 2-4, is in agreement with an internal poll  released Thursday by the Meek campaign, which also showed Meek and Greene in a statistical dead heat. Both polls are at odds with a July 27 Quinnipiac survey, which put Greene ahead by 10 points.

    The M-D datapoint suggests that at least that the Meek internal poll has some credibility.


    Wow
    surprised Snyder only leads by 12 points in the fantasy land of Rasmichigan. Come on Scott, you can do better than that.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Always reliable?
    How can that be used on any pollster?

    Repost from yesterday's digest
    http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    IN-SEN
    Coats 50% (R)
    Ellsworth 35% (D)

    IN-02
    Donnelly 52% (D)
    Walorski 35% (R)

    PA-03
    Dahlkemper 46% (D)
    Kelly 42% (R)

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Also
    OH-01

    Chabot-51 (D-inc)
    Driehaus-41 (R)


    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    [ Parent ]
    Oops switch the D and R.


    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Dammit
    I literally raised my hands in praise and dropped my pen on my desk at work (think touchdown) reading that.

    OH well.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


    [ Parent ]
    Polls
    OH-1 is the one of the seats most likely to switch.  It's currently # 9 on my list.

    Glad to see that Donnelly appears okay, and that Dahlkemper is slightly ahead.  That race is # 40 on my list, so it shows how close Republicans are to taking control.


    [ Parent ]
    I don't see them taking control
    Good to see Donnelly and Dahlkemper doing good and OH-1 is the most likely to flip due to the fact african americans in OH-1 came in droves to vote in Obama and Driehaus won't be there this year but I don't see them taking control.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Death knell for Bennet?
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08...

    Good news for Dem prospects of holding the seat.


    Oh man
    I'm back on Team Romanoff after having switched to Team "Eh, Whichever, They're Both Fine." Now, I'm not saying Bennet is a bad guy, and I think he's been a rather good Senator, and he's certainly better than anyone the Republicans could offer, but man, this is awfully damning:

    ....the JPMorgan deal closed in April 2008, just weeks after a major investment bank, Bear Stearns, failed.
    snip
    they [Bennet & his COO at the time] maintain that no one could have predicted the credit crisis of 2008 that elevated the deal's costs.

    Yeeeah. Okay. I don't know about you, but I was buying duct tape and bottled water for the coming Apocalypse in April 2008. And supposedly, Bennet has all this financial sector knowledge? Although, hey, on the bright side, getting hosed by JP Morgan is something Bennet has in common with millions of ordinary Americans.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    Thoughts
    CO Senate- I HATE Citizens united.

    FL Senate- I supported Obama in the primary but I went to a Bill Clinton rally in Corydon and I seem to remember Meek being there. Bill is very loyal.

    KY Senate- I can believe the final result although some SSPers smarter than me pointed out some errors with the poll so IDK.

    NV Senate- Gotta Love Angle. I do not usually watch countdown but Keith's "interview" was recommended to me and I found it hilarious.

    CO Gov- Sounds like Wiens regrets not running.

    MN Gov- I do not shop at Target a lot anyway but I will avoid them until after November. I am not going to say that I am officially boycotting but rather I will just try and go elsewhere.

    AL-05- Do we have a shot here? It is historically Democrat after all. I would kind of like to see a poll. Wouldn't it be something if we ended up winning this? Ha, I bet Griffith regrets his stupidity. At least Griffith is going to be a one termer. I honestly think he may have won had he stayed D. No use crying over spilt milk though.

    ID-01- It is hard to believe but I think we will actually keep this seat. I think pretty much everyone wrote this off when it was clear we were facing a tough year. Yet it looks like Minnick is well on his way to a second term while some of the people we never expected to face competitive elections may lose. Funny how that works.

    TN-08- Yikes, that's not good. We have a good chance in the general though.

    VA-05- Oh well I doubt his endorsement matters much anyway.

    WA-08- That's good news. If only this was a better year we might beat him. Sigh, he is probably going to be around awhile.

    Polling- That is a fair choice, I was hoping for live caller but I like PPP. Does anyone know if PPP is going to mainly just poll for kos like R2K did or will they poll just as much independently?

    Rasmussen
    CA is believable. I doubt Michigan is that close, just another Rass primary bump, he will be out with a poll fixing it soon. I can buy the NC numbers although I think they are a bit to the right.

    Also is this your first Daily Digest Jeff? Congrats.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    PPP
    will still do independent national polls and NC polls. They will do a "fair amount" of other state polls but it maybe slightly less

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    I like very much this new

    I hope PPP increase the number of polls whit the new contract. I think DailyKos is the right influence what PPP needs.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes, it is, and thank you!
    They're...a lot more work than I expected. The rest of the crew is out for the day, and I'm about to head off and enjoy the summer weekend also.

    [ Parent ]
    WA-08
    I think assuming Reichert wins and WA gains a seat, the new seat will be a super-Democratic suburban Seattle seat with Reichert's home in Auburn drawn into a more Republican district, but I'm not an expert on that.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    WA uses non-partisan redistricting
    if I remember right -- I could see an extra competitive seat, instead of incumbent protection.

    [ Parent ]
    I was under the impression
    that WA acted more like NJ (commission that aims for incumbent protection) than IA (commission that aims for compact districts) but I'd take your knowledge of WA over mine.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I think Michigan is going to be much closer
    Rick Snyder has personally shipped jobs overseas.  When the Democrats make a big deal about this, Snyder will start to tank. Michigan hates job killing trade deals like NAFTA and hates people who ship jobs overseas. In 2006, Granholm looked like she was in trouble against Dick DeVos, until it was rumored that he had shipped jobs overseas, and then he started tanking and Granholm won easily.  In the case of Snyder it is not a rumor but fact.

    Democrats also always do better than the polls show in Michigan.


    [ Parent ]
    Also if I were advising Bernero
    I would encourage him to come out hard against illegal immigration and tie it to jobs.  That would help move him to center and also burnish his strongly populist credentials and brand Snyder as just another irresponsible CEO.  

    [ Parent ]
    Absolutely not!!
    Bernero should NOT "come out hard against illegal immigration."  Copying the Republican playbook is a horrible idea.  If he did this, he'll likely lose progressive votes, including mine.  He doesn't need to move to the center...he's already there.  

    As far as your other comment, I agree.  Snyder wasn't criticized much during the primary.  Once the Democrats go after his business career, Snyder won't look so attractive to voters.  


    [ Parent ]
    ID-01
    It's starting to look like Minnick has the makings of a Chet Edwards.

    Meh…
    I do not dislike Minnick but Edwards is usually there on key issues when he can get away with it. He is actually fairly liberal. I mean he voted against HCR, but he said very little negative things against the bill but rather truthfully said he was doing what his constituents wanted. I do not blame Minnick, he is doing what he has to do. Perhaps he will move more to the left when he becomes more entrenched.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Minnick strikes me as more of a Gene Taylor than a Chet Edwards
    In that if he survives 2010 he'll probably be a very conservative, but fairly low-profile Democrat. I don't see any leftward drift in the future for him, unlike Edwards who I think would vote considerably more liberally if his district was bluer.

    With all that said, Minnick did at least vote in favor of repealing DADT, something even Edwards didn't do.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


    [ Parent ]
    Minnick
    is very liberal on DADT, abortion etc. I don't think he voted for the Stupak Amdt.  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    He's libertarian on social issues
    and hardcore fiscal and economic conservative. Chet Edwards is much more progressive on (the more important to me), economic issues and tries to vote as liberally as he can on those issues. He's just a social conservative.  

    [ Parent ]
    Gene Taylor
    is a good comparison.  Although Gene Taylor is more of a populist conservative (he's led the charge against totally bogus trade deals like NAFTA), while Minnick is a libertarian conservative.

    For their districts, I like both of them.  The Democrats I like least are the ones who are beholden to campaign contributors and corporate lobbyists.  


    [ Parent ]
    New York Passes Anti-Prison Gerrymandering Law
    http://atlantapost.com/2010/08...

    good stuff

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


    Durbin's candidate pick (followup)
    Thanks to a lot of you for your suggestions.

    I think I'm going to go with Conway.  Conlin was on my short-list but this year I'm inclined to focus on playing defense, and I see greater danger in letting Rand open his hole on the Senate floor than in not shutting Grassley's.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    And I have the current results:
    1. Paul Hodes (NH) 559 4.71%

    2. Elaine Marshall (NC) 5067 42.69%

    3. Lee Fisher (OH) 518 4.36%

    4. Roxanne Conlin (IA) 2703 22.77%

    5. Charlie Melancon (LA) 593 5.00%

    6. Robin Carnahan (MO) 1056 8.90%

    7. Jack Conway (KY) 1374 11.58%

    Oh well.  I guess Marshall is on her way to claiming this prize anyway.

    But it's still a good cause.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    [ Parent ]
    WV-SEN Is Gov Machin under investigation by the US Attorney's office?
    Looks like Machin's office confrimed they have been contacted by the U.S. Attorney's Office this week regarding an ongoing investigation. The target may be Manchin himself, according to a source who asked to remain anonymous.

    Here is the link:
    http://watchdog.org/6117/sourc...

    According to the government source, Manchin was subpoenaed as part of a federal grand jury investigation. The subpoenas asked for contracts and records for businesses that have done work at the governor's mansion as well as provided services for parties there. The investigation is into whether Manchin has complied with bidding and state contract requirements.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    Should read Gov Manchin!
    I no type well...

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    WV - Not As Bad
    West Virginia is more comfortable with "moral ambiguity" in its politicians than some other states.  

    [ Parent ]
    Like
    Arch Moore and Alan Mollohan (until this yr anyway...)

    [ Parent ]
    Doesn't sound like it's that big a problem for Manchin
    His statement:

       "The State of West Virginia was served this week with two federal subpoenas.

       "Neither subpoena was directed to Governor Manchin or the Governor's Office. No individual in the Governor's Office was served with a subpoena.

       "The Governor has directed State officials to fully cooperate and comply expeditiously.

       "Governor Manchin wants to get to the bottom of the issue as soon as possible.

       "The State has not been informed that Governor Manchin or any other state employee is under investigation."


    [ Parent ]
    NC-Sen - Rasmussen vs. PPP, round whatever
    The thing that gave me the most hope for Marshall was not PPP but that Survey USA poll in Heath Shuler's district, showing Burr barely beating her in that district. There may be some truth to what some of our North Carolina commentators have been saying - that Burr is so unpopular in North Carolina it doesn't matter this will be a Democratic year.

    Actually, it occurs to me that Burr has the same problems as Democrats nationally. His base just isn't very excited about him.  


    I don't know much about kentucky but...
    I'm surprised Rand Paul is doing as well as he is doing. Kentucky is much like Tennessee and a candidate like Rand Paul (see Zelenick, Wamp) don't tend to do well state wide. Somebody that knows more about Kentucky why do you believe he is doing as well as he is after making those outrageous statements.

    Generic lean
    We've gotten so used to sending R's to Washington than they're almost always going to start off with the advantage in federal races. Paul's statements hurt him when he first made them, but he's shut up recently. But he's going to have to own up to them eventually. The race will really start then.  

    20, Democrat, KY-01

    [ Parent ]
    Although Conway hasnt blasted the airwaves with this statement yet
    He only made it once, but once is enough in politics.

    [ Parent ]
    Sharron Angle
    What is wrong with my party? Good lord.

    Angle
    is a disaster.  As a Republican I would vote for her and then hope to primary her next time.

    Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

    [ Parent ]
    Take this as a lesson and come back in 2012
    And hell, thanks for finally giving us the opposite spectrum version of the "beatnik dirty hippy."  Marijuana and acid can only do so much while fundamentalism and fear-mongering racism, lordy lordy, look at all the freaks.

    [ Parent ]

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