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SSP Daily Digest: 8/5 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 3:41 PM EDT


IL-Sen: Barack Obama's in Chicago today to help get Alexi Giannoulias across the finish line, at least on the fundraising front, where he's faltered lately. The fundraiser he's appearing at today is projected to raise $1 million for Giannoulias's coffers. Meanwhile, this is a little gossipier than we usually like to get into, but you might check out Chicago Magazine's interview with Mark Kirk's ex-wife, which, jaw-dropping as it is, seems to raise even more questions than it answers, especially regarding Kirk's former aide and Svengali-figure Dodie McCracken.

NH-Sen: Here's an indication that Bill Binnie still has to be taken seriously in the GOP Senate primary in New Hampshire: a conservative group called Cornerstone Action (affiliated with the Family Research Council and Focus on the Family) has launched a $125K ad buy attacking Binnie on his socially moderate stances (he's pro-choice and apparently pro-gay marriage). While Cornerstone hasn't specifically backed Kelly Ayotte, Binnie's camp is trying to link them together.

CO-Gov: Democratic candidate John Hickenlooper announced his pick for a running mate today: the president of CSU-Pueblo and former Director of the state Dept. of Regulatory Agencies, Joe Garcia (no, not the FL-25 one). Meanwhile, Dan Maes -- who was a Some Dude until Scott McInnis imploded -- is starting to rival Sharron Angle in terms of his ability to get into the digest every single day for having said something dumb or having some terrible detail from his past revealed. Today, the Denver Post is out with a comprehensive list of his delinquent filings over the years, ranging from annual reports to the state's SoS office for his credit reporting business for the years 2007-2010, to a lien against his house for not paying his homeowners' association dues for seven months.

FL-Gov: Ex-Gov. Jeb Bush is throwing a lifeline to Bill McCollum. He'll join McCollum on the stump for appearances around the state on Monday. Meanwhile, the spotlight is starting to swing over from Columbia/HCA, Rick Scott's old healthcare company, to his new one, Solantic. The Miami Herald looks at various lawsuits that Solantic has racked up, ranging from filing false medical information with the state to discrimination lawsuits.

GA-Gov: Breaking with Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney (who've endorsed suburban Karen Handel), Mike Huckabee announced his support today for the more southern-fried Nathan Deal in the GOP gubernatorial runoff.

MI-Gov: Looks like Rep. Peter Hoekstra, douchebag to the bitter end, may need some time to pout/mourn after his sizable loss in the GOP gubernatorial primary to Rick Snyder. He sent an e-mail to supporters yesterday thanking them but making no mention of support for Snyder. A Hoekstra endorsement, of course, would go a long way toward helping consolidate conservatives behind Snyder, whose moderation may leave them cold.

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley has liked to emphasize her accounting background on the campaign trail, but she filed her federal income taxes more than a year late in both 2005 and 2006, and has accrued more than $4,000 in late-payment penalties since then.

CT-05: Justin Bernier has filed a complaint with the state's SoS against GOP primary rival state Sen. Sam Caligiuri. Caligiuri sent out a mailer calling himself the "Republican nominee," not the "Republican-endorsed candidate" (which he is, thanks to the convention). Of course, the mailer then asks for the recipients' votes in the Republican primary, which according to elementary logic would mean that he is not yet the Republican nominee, but, then again, Republican usually =/= logic.

MI-02: Jay Riemersma, who finished 2nd in the open seat GOP primary in MI-02 by a margin of about 700 votes to ex-state Rep. Wayne Huizenga, has said he won't seek a recount. Not that a protracted battle would have been any aid to Democrats, who aren't expected to be a factor in November in this dark-red district. (A recount, of course, may still loom in MI-01, where there's either a 1-point or 14-point gap, depending on your source, and both GOPers have claimed victory.)

Washington: PPP looked at a whole lot of miscellany in their Washington Senate poll, too. They look ahead to both the 2012 Senate and gubernatorial races, finding Maria Cantwell in fine shape for now: she's at 46/38 approval, and she leads Rep. Dave Reichert (not likely to run) 47-41 and Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (who's largely unknown statewide) 49-37. The gubernatorial numbers for now favor the likely GOP nominee, AG Rob McKenna, though. He leads Democratic state Sen. majority leader Lisa Brown 47-29 (although her problem is that she's completely unknown, with 81% with no opinion, though she as Generic D is probably also weighed down by Chris Gregoire's approvals, currently at 39/52... I'd have been more interested in seeing how Rep. Jay Inslee matches up, although he may be just as unknown statewide). Finally, they find a 41-41 tie in support for I-1098, which is on the November ballot and would create an income tax for high earners. SurveyUSA, of all people, has given a big lead to "yes" on this initiative, so it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out.

State legislatures: You may recall Louis Jacobson's piece at Governing Magazine from last month where he handicapped the most competitive state legislative chambers this year. He's out with an expanded version, with every state legislature included and with more detailed writeups. Well worth a read (and maybe even a bookmark). Another similar piece worth checking out today is from Taniel, writing at Open Left, with a comprehensive rundown of who is likely to control the redistricting process in all the states that don't have independent commissions (or only one CD).

Rasmussen:
CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 45%, Carly Fiorina (R) 40%
KS-Sen: Lisa Johnston (D) 28%, Jerry Moran (R) 61%
OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 42%, John Kasich (R) 45%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/5 (Afternoon Edition)
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Not exactly...
A ringing endorsement of Mark Kirk's "heterosexuality" in that interview with his ex-beard, huh?

I'm really surprised
Really am, Kirk was supposed to be a savvy, good candidate, he'd proved that in the past. But his roll out to a statewide campaign has imploded. It's been nearly 2 months of discussions about his own problems and untruthfulness, (that is a word, not a Bushism), and he's sort of missed the window; Gianoullias's banking issue has sort of died down. Now if he can just get his fundraising in order he's got a solid chance at holding this seat for Democrats in November and staying there for a very long, long time.  

[ Parent ]
Target apologizes to employees
for how donation played out.  Not much of an apology and I think the CEO simply felt the need to issue an apology only because the downtown office is widely known for having many LGBTers working there.  They create many a power gay.

A "power gay"?
like a "gay czar"?

[ Parent ]
Makes me think of the Ambiguously Gay Duo


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Well they're definitely not power bottoms
It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia ftw.

[ Parent ]
GA-Gov
Does GA have a sore loser law?  Given how acrimonious the runoff seems to be getting, could Deal run as a 3rd party candidate if he loses the runoff?

Filing for independents and third party candidates has already finished.
He might can try a write-in campaign, but he will not be on the ballot if he loses the runoff.  And it wouldn't matter anyways; Georgia has runoffs, so splitters in the general election are almost irrelevent*.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
You know this is
vaguely politically relevant, so I'm throwing it out there. I can't help but wonder if Scott Brown even wants to get reelected in 2012; he doesn't seem to be trying. First he voted against a ridiculously moderate and compromised Don't Ask Don't Tell repel that was actually a TRIGGER dependent on the Defense Departments ultimate recommendation, and then he grandstanded on Financial Reform, (after getting special exceptions just for MA banks), and now, today, he voted against Elena Kagan, right as every other New England Republican voted for her. MA voters can't seriously think this guy is a moderate still.

Oh, and I know this is against the normal rules, but I'm flat out going to pull a bit of DKos purity trolling and say I'm looking forward to Heineman defeating Ben Nelson in 2012. Ben Nelson has hurt Democrats this entire session. It was him and Collins, (more so than Specter and Snowe), who got the stimulus slashed into a smaller bill. He set Democrats back continuously on healthcare reform, he refused to back bipartisan Financial reform, and now he's voted against Kagan's confirmation. I think there are limits, and electorally I don't see how having a Senator like Nelson helps Democrats, (and recall that senior Democratic Senators  admitted they'd stopped trying to negotiate with Nelson on Financial reform and were instead pursuing Republican votes).


I
hate purism. Seriously I hate Jane Hamsher and FDL. In fact one of my favorite members of Congress is a blue dog (Chet Edwards). However I can honestly say I feel the same way about Nelson. He has proven that he is not a real Democrat and seems corrupt. He only hurts us. I would not be even slightly surprised if he switched parties. He needs to go.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I agree
I hate purism in all forms. The Democratic Party has to be big tent party if we want to be a viable national party, but Ben Nelson has been a pain in the ass towards Obama and the Democratic leadership this year. His antics on health care especially the Cornhusker Kickback, abortion, hurt our party dearly and himself. I wouldn't donate a dime to him since he's proven the only thing he wants to do is screw us over on everything. He's not speaking out for Nebraska, he's speaking out for his own damn ego.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
You
are preaching to the choir. I mean voting against extending unemployment benefits goes against the core principals of the Democratic Party. I am not a member of this party because I am socially liberal or environmentally friendly (although I mainly am for both). No, I am a Democrat because I support the working class. I know some say that he supports a balanced budget and opposes raising the deficit, and perhaps I could buy that bologna but he supports extending Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy. He does not care a damm about the deficit. He cares more about himself than he does about the people of Nebraska or anything.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I will be the voice of dissent here, Nelson DESERVES SSPers' support......
Nebraska is both dark red ideologically AND ancestrally Republican.  It's harder for Democrats there than anywhere in the South or Southwest.

Nelson has been a "yes" on every floor vote on all major legislation except a couple times when his vote wasn't needed.  Health care reform doesn't happen without him.  I don't want to hear complaining about the bill itself, both Nelson and Bernie Sanders voted "yes" on the final up-or-down, not just for cloture.  Yes Nelson is foolish to vote "no" on Kagan and think that helps him, that's dumb politics......but that's a minor political mistake, not a serious failing.

Nelson has never bad-mouthed his party, he's not out there parroting Republican talking points in speeches or on TV or in op-eds.

In short, Nelson is no Joe Lieberman, even though it's in his best interest to be just that rhetorically.

I realize it's irritating when Nelson makes himself a problem for US on important things like the public option or the Kagan vote.  Go ahead and be irritated.  I sure am.

But if you profess NOT to be a purity troll, this is a test of whether you really live up to that or not.  If Nelson represented even purple Colorado, I'd say a pressured retirement or even a primary would be in order.  But Nebraska is Nebraska.  If you want to keep moving the ball downfield, toward the left, then that requires supporting people like Ben Nelson in states like Nebraska.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Respectfully Disagree
First off I mean no offense in this post, we are all entitled to our own opinions. Now to the post. Unemployment benefits. You talk about how he is from uber red Nebraska and has to vote against us from time to time. Yeah, fine, I understand and agree with that. However voting against unemployment benefits? That is an EASY vote. America wanted them extended, including 43% of Republicans. That vote would not hurt him, not at all. You could argue that financial regulation would probably not hurt either but I am going to focus on UB. Not only does he oppose extending UB but he supports extending Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. Are you shitting me? If he would oppose both I could understand but supporting tax cuts for the wealthy while opposing UB is pure hypocrisy. You can't be a Democrat and oppose them, it goes against the core principals of this party. Also I will say it again IT IS A EASY(!!!!!!) VOTE!!!!!! So easy, my gosh it would not hurt him at all. So yes I oppose him because he opposes us. He only voted for HCR because he had to and his tactics in HCR hurt us badly. One of the reasons HCR was unpopular is because of the cornhusker kickback and the stall tactics he used. I am NO purist. I would vote for Walt Minnick, I would vote for Bobby Bright, I would even vote Joe LIEberman if it was him verses a Republican in a two person race. However I would never vote for Ben Nelson. I just could not do it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I'm sorry but your comment just reinforced that Ben Nelson is merely the villain of the moment, undeserved......
He's the new Blanche Lincoln, nothing more.  And that turned quickly, Blanche Lincoln was Blanche Lincoln just a couple months ago!

You can't really say you'd vote for people like Minnick and Bright and yet no on Ben Nelson as any rational choice.  Nelson's constituents are not much less politically conservative than Minnick's or Bright's; Nelson's voters perhaps are less deeply religious, but not much less politically conservative.  And Nelson has been clearly to the left of people like Minnick and Bright.

Nelson is just the latest intraparty villain, singled out not for any rational reason.

I'm with everyone here when it comes to Joe Lieberman.  CT is a blue state, period.  Democrats shouldn't put up with someone like him there.

But celebrating the defeat of Lincoln and Nelson by Republicans is really reverse ClubForGrowthism.  It's OUR undoing, not Lincoln's or Nelson's.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Agree..
We should only get "better" Democrats in blue states where we have conservative Democrats like CT

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
ugh
I support Lincoln. I support Landrieu. I support Bright. I support Minnick. I support Marshall. I support Ellsworth. I support Bayh. I support 99% of the blue dogs. I am NO Dem Club for Growther. I mildly (I really did not give a fuck) supported Halter because I thought he stood a somewhat (still no chance at all chance) better chance in the general but I do not dislike Lincoln that much. I am rooting for her now. You did not answer about UB. That was the turning point for me. I am sorry, you can't be a Democrat and vote against them WHILE supporting Bush Tax Cuts. No, there is just no excuse. I take insult at being called a purist, I am no such thing. Nelson is no longer a Dem. I want you to defend his vote for unemployment benefits, come on defend it. Also would you still defend him if he switches parties? What if he goes Zell Miller and endorses the R nominee in 2012? Do not be surprised if he does.

Nelson is just the latest intraparty villain, singled out not for any rational reason.

VOTING AGAINST EXTENDING UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! VOTING AGAINST KAGAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!! VOTING AGAINST FINANCIAL REGULATION!!!!! Do you want me to go on?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


[ Parent ]
Sorry
I hope my tone was not rude in that comment. Accept my apologies if it is. I do not bold to shout but rather to emphasis my point.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
No apologies necessary, I don't dismiss your concerns on his votes. BUT......
Full disclosure, I'm a government employee and work specifically in the area of unemployment compensation, and I personally am strongly supportive of unemployment benefits for their macroeconomic and individually remediative benefits.  And of course I object to Nelson's vote on that bill and the others you cited.

And I think Nelson's votes on all those constitute bad politics.  There isn't a swing-voter or mainstream conservative groundswell against those things that would give Nelson any political benefit from his "no" votes, all he can hope to do is use them in a meta-argument that he's "independent from the national party."  Of course, those votes are independence WITHOUT helping Nebraska, so even that meta-argument is of very limited value.

But all that said, it still isn't rational to treat Nelson's votes on UI or those other things as straws that break the camel's back to the point of opposing his reelection when he's the only Democrat who would have ANY chance of holding that seat.

Ben Nelson isn't Zell Miller, and Nebraska isn't Connecticut.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Eh...
Truth be told, Nebraska has such a low unemployment rate right now, that extending UI isn't exactly a big help to the state (not that I'm not pissed off with Ben Nelson over it, or that there isn't just a moral case to be made for their extension which there definitely is).

So I don't even know if what Ben Nelson did was even bad politics given the state of Nebraska (though I agree with everything else you said).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Nelson is going to be 2012's Lincoln Chafee
He's painted himself into a corner; on the one hand, Republicans hate him for supporting HCR and financial reform, while on the other hand, Democrats are sick of his constant opposition to things like extending unemployment benefits and his opposition to some of Obama's nominees. I don't know if he'll get primaried or not, but he's just got no chance of being re-elected at this point.

[ Parent ]
I don't doubt that, Nelson indeed might be a goner already......
If the Governor runs, Nelson could be toast immediately.  It wouldn't surprise me if he up and retires.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Excuse me?
Dark red ideologically and ancestrally Republican?

Sorry to argue, but I think the long stream of Democratic Governors and Senators over the past 50 years say otherwise, many of them were far better Dems than Nelson.


[ Parent ]
Is there any D bench in Nebraska?
Scott Kleeb is not enough. If I remember right, Esch is no longer a D. Bob Kerrey is still in NYC.

While your point is good, it's not relevant without a D bench, someone who can credibly run for the seat. Without a D bench, it might as well be a dark red and ancestrally R state.  


[ Parent ]
Big deal, Massachusetts had 3 straight Republican Governors over 16 years......
Connecticut has had a long string of GOP Govenors.  Same with Rhode Island.  Minnesota is going on a quarter-century of Republican Governors.  Illinois had Republican Governors for a loooooong time before Blago.  RI put Chafee in the Senate, MN put Norm Coleman there, Illinois put Pete freakin' Fitzgerald there!

Voters cross their own partisan impulses sometimes, simply out of fear of one-party rule and affection for a particular candidate.

Yes, Nebraska is ancestrally Republican, as well as ideologically very conservative.  All the plains states are like that, except that Iowa flipped from red to genuinely purple when I was a kid in the 70s and never went back.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Anybody remember Bob Kerrey?
Bob Kerrey was also an ass. But Nelson makes me very, very nostalgic for Kerrey. Sure, Kerry could be a douche. He was a Lieberman-y war hawk who was an annoyingly inconsistent deficit scold and wanted to privatize Social Security. But at least Kerrey was a genuine social liberal (voted against DOMA) and was at least genuinely maverick and progressive on many things (voted against welfare reform, endorsed single-payer health care).

So while he wasn't exactly anybody's idea of an orthodox team player, even Kerrey seems to me to have been a vastly more reliable Democrat than Ben Nelson. And it supports the idea that Nelson is VASTLY more right-wing than a Nebraska Democrat need be. Nobody expects Nelson to be Barbara Boxer, but a quiet, moderate, but generally reliable Democrat would probably do just as well. Nelson is an ass, waters down the Democratic agenda, and his egotrips just backfire by attracting attention to himself and turning his constituents against him.

Now, I'm not calling for a primary challenge, as I suspect that a primary challenger would just get characterized as far-left for having the temerity to challenge him, meaning we'd just lose the seat. What I'm pushing back against is simply the idea that he has to be this right-wing to win in Nebraska. No, he doesn't.


[ Parent ]
Chet Edwards isnt a Blue Dog


[ Parent ]
Good Catch
Still love him though.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Brown isn't going to get reelected
and I think he's realizing he's in over his head as Senator.  He's become pretty invisible and curiously pathetic when in the spotlight.  That he's in over his head is the view of a lot of people who have dealings with him and his office.  Don't expect a whole lot from him in any department, including consistency.

For all the morons bitching and whining and faulting Coakley, the truth of the election in January is that Brown got elected for being The Not-Kennedy after 47 years of Always Kennedy.  (A remarkably large chunk of the little folk here- older working class people- resented Kennedy enormously even though he did everything for them that he could.)  Brown certainly isn't Kennedy, even in basic competences.

Ben Nelson is headed where Blanche Lincoln is going- polling shows him with iirc 42% approval in Nebraska last I checked.  (That's practically identical with the generic national Democratic support in the state.) The Republican-leaning swing voters of Nebraska have left him.  And when the swing voters in a Red state leave a conservaDem they don't go back.  


[ Parent ]
Kos has hired PPP
said it was down to them and Mason Dixon. Picked PPP cause they release more transparency.

Kudos to PPP, hope they double the releases with their normal work AND with what ever Kos hires them to do.

Says someone else is getting hired for weekly state of the nation polling.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


YEAH
Wow, PPP was exactly the pollster I was rooting for. Some here said it wasn't likely, but I'm glad they're in, I'd like to se more polling from them/  

[ Parent ]
Sigh…..
No polling Indiana then. I like PPP though. A live caller would be nice but oh well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah
PPP will never poll Indiana or North Dakota

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Yup....
Just Rasmussen. All great Rasmussen. Rasmussen, Rasmussen, Rasmussen. Ugh.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Why can Rasmussen poll these areas but not PPP?
Isn't Rasmussen automated too?  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's my question, too! Why did everyone on this thread miss that???......
I do see Rasmussen run robopolls in IN, and I wonder how they do it, because I'm aware they have a ban in that state.  I imagine there MUST be some loophole Rasmussen exploits?  If not, why doesn't the state go after them?  It's not like they poll in secret!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Their polls
Are introduced by a real person, then it switches to machine.  

[ Parent ]
Thanks
I was not sure how to answer the questions above. I knew it was some technicality but I was not sure what off the top of my head. Thanks.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Would make it seem like PPP
Wouldn't have trouble mimmicking Rasmussen then.  And with the KOS money I wouldn't think hiring a few extra human so as to nto avoid states would be that big of an issue.

[ Parent ]
We desperately need more Indiana polling
Literally all we've got of the Ellsworth-Coats race is Rasmussen. And while I don't doubt Coats is favored and probably ahead, I really have trouble imagining this race is as far gone as Rasmussen keeps saying it is. I'll believe it when we get confirmation from other polls. And unfortunately, there are virtually none.  

[ Parent ]
What not Indiana?
Why would PPP not poll Indiana?

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
some sort of law
about automated calling, (they are an automated pollster).

[ Parent ]
Thanks
That is a bummer, I would like to see some more polling on Indiana's Senate race.

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Ditto


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Si Senor


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe
Kos would pay enough for them to get live interviewers?  

[ Parent ]
Tom Jensen
is not sure how much non-Kos polling he'll do outside of NC. He says he'll do a fair amount but less.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Hire more people then
HIRE ME!

[ Parent ]
ME TOO!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Bravo Kos...
I think this is a great choice. Even when I've taken issue with some of there polling, it's only because they are so transparent that I'm able to take issue at all. (if that makes sense)

 


[ Parent ]
Paul 41 Conway 31
Conway has plunged since the last Braun poll, which had it a 41-38 race.

http://politics.mycn2.com/2010...


Bravo Paul
He has done an excellent job of keeping his wacky views to himself recently. If he manages to keep this up until November he will win. I have no doubt of it. The reason he has upped his polling is because he has gone from nutcase to generic R. Let's see how this plays out. If Conway can make this race about Paul and how his views do not fit Kentucky then he will probably win. Talk about farm subsidies and getting rid of social security. If Conway runs a good campaign then I think he will win.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
This poll isn't credible, I call bullshit on this one......
I can believe Paul winning by 10 in a conservative state like KY in this anti-Democratic environment.

But it makes no sense voters would go from 41-38 to 41-31, with people abandoning Conway for "undecided."  That's absurd, voters don't do that without a specific reason.  We see that sort of thing happen in IL-Sen where voters don't like Giannoulias or Kirk and the undecideds grew after the Broadway Bank takeover and Kirk's gaffes.  But nothing has happened in Kentucky that would drive voters away from Conway who still don't go toward Paul.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
These are the goofballs whose last sample was 77% over 50 years old
It's 54% this time, which is still way high, but also makes a person wonder what cataclysm happened in kentucky to wipe out that extra 23% of the AARP generation that were likely voters in July but not so in August.

These guys don't seem to even know how to do a poll.


[ Parent ]
It's variance
May I suggest that you study some statistics before jumping to such conclusions?

[ Parent ]
The topline itself isn't credible, tietack......
It's 41-31 with just 3 months to go?  Huh?  That's credible for a U.S. House race, not in a hotly contested open-seat U.S. Senate race.

And the trendline has Paul steady but Conway bleeding to undecided?  That makes no sense.  As I said in my other comment, you see that sort of thing happen in IL-Sen where a candidate gets in the trouble but the alternative is also disliked.  But nothing's happened to Conway to get him in trouble.

"Variance" doesn't explain it, a methodologically sound poll simply doesn't have this topline or trendline.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
The question was not the topline
but a cross-tab. Your question w/r/t the numbers suggests that this may be an outlier.

[ Parent ]
May I suggest instead of your rejection of mathematical analysis
you come back with a specific explanation of how 77% represents both a random sample, and where a sample like this falls on a scale of actual variance.

This is the approximate equivalent of a sample with 80%+ men.  Of course such a result to you would just be "variance" and you'd believe it, as you believe all polls, no matter how they contradict each other.


[ Parent ]
You stated
It's 54% this time, which is still way high, but also makes a person wonder what cataclysm happened in kentucky to wipe out that extra 23% of the AARP generation that were likely voters in July but not so in August.

My answer -- variance. By definition, variance is larger in a cross-tab.

Perhaps it's like getting 4 royal flushes on video poker on one night. Perhaps it reflects the true nature of the KY electorate that is ready to vote.

The only way to know what poll is an outlier is with additional polls.

KY-Sen will be polled again. And again. We will soon know if this is an outlier.

But outliers happen due to variance. Once again, I suggest that you study some statistics before saying things like:

also makes a person wonder what cataclysm happened in kentucky to wipe out that extra 23% of the AARP generation
not so in August.  

[ Parent ]
Addition: variance within a poll
Say there are 20 questions asked of all respondents to a poll. Given a 95% confidence level, on average, one out of the 20 questions --should-- have screwy results.

And there are many polls with about 20 questions.

In fact, if 1 out of 20 questions on average do not have screwy results, then the methodology of the pollster --should-- be questioned. Sometimes that screwy result is in the topline, sometimes in a different question.

Given the random nature of variance, it could be the responses to 4 questions -- on none.

When analyzing subgroups, that variance goes up -- to perhaps 2 or even 3 of those 20 questions, on average, having screwy results. And if that many results are not screwy, that's evidence that pollster is "adjusting" or playing with the results.


[ Parent ]
I know there are statisticians here
who can explain all of this better than I.

If they refute / correct / show that I'm full of it, that's OK too, as we all might learn something about statistics and the nature of polling.


[ Parent ]
5 gov races in 2011?
If Chris Gregoire is nominated and confirmed as Solicitor General after Oct. 3, a special election would be held in 2011. This would be in addition to regularly scheduled elections in MS, KY, and LA. http://blog.thenewstribune.com...
There is another potential 2011 election, if Manhcin is elected to the senate, and if state law is interpreted as saying a 2011 special is needed. Thats not really certain, just like the Sen law.  

Obama wouldn't appoint Gregoire
it would unnecessarily make Democrats more likely to lose an important Governorship.  

[ Parent ]
He appointed Janet Napolitano
With predictably disastrous consequences for Arizona.  

[ Parent ]
Oh pick her!
Let's Dino Rossi' head explode over it!

[ Parent ]
I think
He'd be very happy if the election was this year, which is not likely. If it was this year, he could ride McKenna's coattails.  

[ Parent ]
WA
Since Jay Inslee has held elective offices on both sides of the mountains, he is probably better known statewide than McMorris Rogers who is a relative unknown to westside voters.

DE Could have special election for Castle seat
If he wins. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...
Sounds like another stupid law like in WV and IL. Would this be the first time that an incumbent has had to run in a special election for their own seat without resigning and running for it?  

What
a freaking stupid law. I can't get over how stupid it is. I do not care about the special election part I just dislike that they can collect twice the funds. Sigh....

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
The other day
Everyone loved in in the IL-Sen race when it favored Alexi.  Its another one of those good for the geese issues.  And I don't see it having much of an impact really.

[ Parent ]
No
I opposed it there as well. I remember talking to GOPVOTER about it a while back. You are right though, it is probably not a big deal but I just do not like the idea of them collecting twice the cash. Oh well though, it is not the worst thing in the world. I can't remember people doing it like this in the past for Senate seats.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
NY-29 goes 8 months without congressional representation....
and DE-Al can't go 30 days?

NY-29 has no representation for over a third of the 111th Congress because Gov David Patterson refused to call a timely Special Election.

While Deleware might have to call a Special Election to serve out the last week of the term. Crazy!

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[ Parent ]
Just another reason why I quit law school
Such rigidity and stupidity.  Laws are supposed to help form a more perfect community and are a benefit to the populace at large.  Then we have laws like this that do do this in most situations, but then you get special circumstances that make following the law downright stupid.

You can always just change a law, it's why we have legislatures and governors.  But then special sessions cost money, it's hard to get everyone on board for it for whatever dumb reasons they have, etc.  And it's not hard to change this law to "when a seat is left vacant, you may use the previous election to decide who fills the seat if said election was in the past three months."  That would cover any one of these lame-duck sessions.


[ Parent ]
New MN Gov DFL Primary Poll
http://kstp.com/news/stories/S...

43% - Dayton

27% - Kelliher

22% - Entenza

1% - Idusogie

7% - Undecided



"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Idusogie?
I know who I'm supporting!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
MN Gov-SUSA General election numbers
Emmer (R) - 32%
Dayton (DFL) - 46%
Horner (IP) - 9%
Undecided - 13%

Emmer (R) - 33%
Kelliher (DFL) - 39%
Horner (IP) - 12%
Undecided - 17%

Emmer (R) - 33%
Entenza (DFL) - 38%
Horner (IP) - 12%
Undecided - 17%

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


[ Parent ]
Wow
I think this race is officially lean D. Looks like you guys are FINALLY going to get a D back in the Governs Mansion. It's been twenty years right? I bet your happy.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I get nervous when...
... things start to look to good. I expect things to tighten but for the good guys to come out on top.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Sorry
I don't want to jinx it either. But a 14 point lead!!! I'm feeling pretty good right now.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Especially considering SUSA historically has a Republican lean in their MN polling


[ Parent ]
We all know what happened with Mike Hatch
Bringing up his name makes me want to drink and sigh heavily.

For the non-Minnesotans, he was clearly in the driver's seat and was going to win, and then his LG didnt know what E85 was, which made Hatch call a reporter a Republican whore or a Republican hack depending which press release you believe.  Classic snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

And I remember saying this on here before and people here didnt know what E85 was, which shocked the hell out of me because I thought everyone knew what it was.  It's a mixture of corn-based ethanol and old fashioned gasoline mixed together to save oil.  If you live in a farm state, you know what this is, you see signs at rural gas pumps and her not knowing what E85 was probably the biggest palm-to-forehead Ive done in politics.

Im getting bitter, time to move on to another topic, heh.


[ Parent ]
Random question in light of the Prop 8 business...
how many senators (current and past) have openly declared their support for gay marriage? the only ones I can think of are Russ Feingold, Barbara Boxer, Lincoln Chafee, Sheldon Whitehouse, Chris Dodd, Ted Kennedy, Kirsten Gillibrand, I think also Dianne Feinstein? Any others?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


oh yeah.
I think Ron Wyden too.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Chuck Schumer
Link:

http://www.queerty.com/ny-sen-...

I would assume Barbara Boxer does too, but while I could find statements opposing Prop. 8, I couldn't find direct "I support same-sex marriage" statements, although someone could easily prove me wrong here.  


[ Parent ]
According to
this link, both Boxer and Feinstein seem to support gay marriage. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

they both voted against DOMA, although that isn't a guarantee of gay marriage support (John Edwards and Obama both oppose DOMA, for instance). My senior senator, Jack Reed, voted for DOMA when he was in the House, but I wonder if he's come around.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Has John Kerry come around?
I mean, the guy ALSO voted against DOMA and it seemed pretty obvious he said he opposed same-sex marriage because of the 2004 election.

Now, MA has had gay marriage for six years. Has he officially come out in support?


[ Parent ]
Not sure...
back in 2004 Kerry was certainly a huge douchebag on the issue, even backing a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in MA: http://www.boston.com/news/spe...

but I can't find anything more recent.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Well
thank god Judge Walker didn't deliver his verdict on Prop 8 during the Kagan confirmation hearings otherwise we would of seen most of the Republicans in the senate go off into delusional homophobic rants during their floor speeches. I shutter to think what garbage logic senators like Jim DeMint would of used to justify Prop 8. Though I expect the term "activist judge" and "Prop 8" to be smacked around during confirmation hearings now sadly.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Oh let them speak garbage
The more pissed off they are, the closer they'll finally get to  say they think homosexuality should be illegal and we should all be hung.  Im sure Jim Demint could have a whole rally in South Carolina about the need to holocaust teh gays with a number of people showing up.  (Exactly why I dont I dont go to LGBT oriented rallies, Id probably get way too sassy with some counter-protestor with a bible verse and a noose on a sign.)

I just said this in another thread somewhere and it's that the GOP has finally found their alternative to the hippy.  Average people everywhere think of the hippies as moronic extremists, and now the GOP has the tea-bagger, their own moranic extremist.  And it's their time to shine; gays, blacks, and Hispanics, oh my!  And you can always use code words about welfare and being an illegal when it comes to racial minorities but attacking the gays will backfire someday because eventually, white middle class Americans will view us as their own because 'we dont live in ghettos', 'speak poor English' and 'we dont have too many babies we can't handle.'


[ Parent ]
NY13 - Grimm tries to milk Nelson scandal with FEC complaint....
...involving some other mind numbingly stupid thing the ex-Molinari/Pataki hack said about the list being compiled to "poach" donors from Grimm.

http://www.silive.com/news/ind...

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


Do you blame him?
I mean if a GOP candidate's campaign were stupid (or anti semetic) enough to put out a list its opponents "Jewish Money" supporters I certainly hope they they would try to milk it for every thing its worth.

The bottom line is McMahon's campaign really messed up with a very offensive attack against Grimm and Grimm would be an absolute idiot not to make the most of it.


Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
Wow A BUNCH of Indiana and other polls
Indiana Senate Poll
Coats-50
Ellsworth-35

Yeah I know it's not great, not at all but Ellsworth is still unkown. Once voters get to know him it will tighten. The race has really not begun yet. Do you know how many comercials I have seen from either canidate. Zero. Coats has the upper hand and stands a good chance of winning but it will be by a closer margin. If Coats wins it will be because of the R by his name, that means a lot. However if Ellsworth wins it will be despite the D by his name. This poll is not horrible news, it is what I expect for the time being.  

Donnelly-52
Wacky Jakie-35

No surprises here.

Chabot-51
Driehaus-41

Closer than I expected

Dahlkemper-46
Kelly-42

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Ellsworth
has already run 1 or 2 ads.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Yes
but they are not statewide buys. I do not think so anyway. I know I have seen absolutely zero ads for either candidate in the primary or now and I watch the local news 2-3 times a day. I am fairly sure the buy for the first one was VERY small and I am not sure about the second but I do not think it was large either.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I've seen Ellsworth ads a few times
I don't watch TV very much, but have seen his ads run maybe two or three times here -- but not much.

[ Parent ]
FL-Sen (D) M-D: Meek over Greene
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

The new survey, conducted August 2-4, is in agreement with an internal poll  released Thursday by the Meek campaign, which also showed Meek and Greene in a statistical dead heat. Both polls are at odds with a July 27 Quinnipiac survey, which put Greene ahead by 10 points.

The M-D datapoint suggests that at least that one Meek internal poll is credible.

Or perhaps Meek's campaign is actually running a significant number of ads now.



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