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SSP Daily Digest: 8/4 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Aug 04, 2010 at 8:51 AM EDT


  • FL-Sen: Is Marco Rubio off the supply-side reservation? He admitted in a recent campaign stop that "tax cuts don't pay for themselves," which seems like high-grade Republican apostasy. I look forward to his undoubtedly forthcoming apology.
  • Meanwhile, more interestingly, Jeff Greene is getting in some hot water for his maritime adventures. At a debate on Sunday, Greene claimed he had visited Cuba in 2007 - a very touchy subject in South Florida, of course - as part of a Jewish humanitarian mission. Oops, says a campaign spokesbot - "What he meant to say was that in 2007, he went on the boat from Honduras to the Bahamas, and en route the boat had a hydraulic problem" and made a pit-stop in Cuba. Yuh huh - cuz I always mix up yachting hijinks with charity tours with my rabbi. But wait, there's more! A former Greene deckhand (and there are quite a few who despise their old boss) says the candidate is lying, and that "It was their total intention to go to Cuba. We never went to Honduras, not even close. I figure it was the glamour of wanting to go to a banned country." Good luck explaining this one away.

  • CA-Gov: Props to Jonathan Martin at Politico for making sure this one didn't get flushed down the oubliette: Ins. Co. Steve Poizner still has not endorsed Meg Whitman, who vanquished him in the GOP primary.
  • NM-Gov: A new front in the New Mexico governor's race: Dem Diane Denish says she supports a domestic partnership law, which would give same-sex couples many of the same rights as heterosexual married couples. Predictably, Republican Susana Martinez is opposed. Domestic partnership bills have come up regularly in the state legislature but have always foundered. Of course, this issue may or may not get a lot of traction in a year like this.
  • TN-09: Willie Herenton is claiming that early voting patterns show him well on the way to a 3-to-1 victory over Rep. Steve Cohen. You can supply the laughter.
  • NY-24: Rep. Mike Arcuri, spurned by both the Independence and Working Families Parties, is still trying to get on a second ballot line - one of his own creation. His campaign is petitioning to create an "NY Moderates" party.
  • IN-02: Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly is up with a pair of ads attacking "Wacky" Jackie Walorsky for her support of Wall Street and for "free trade" deals with Mexico and China. Of course, NWOTSOTB.
  • FL-22: This just shows you how stark raving insane Allen West is. While serving in Iraq in 2003, he claims he got wind of a plot... against himself. Rather than recuse himself from the investigation, he ordered his subordinates to beat a detainee, and then threatened the man with summary execution - going so far as to fire a gun over his head. You can find the full story here, but the reason why this is coming up is that West just released an absurdly self-serving video where he portrays himself as some kind of heroic Jack Bauer - but the reality is that West only avoided criminal charges by tendering his resignation to the Army.
  • PA-07: Look, if I were Pat Meehan, I'd howl about this, too - but the fact is, even if Dem Bryan Lentz's campaign did help teabagger Jim Schneller qualify for the ballot, that's just fucking politics. (The Lentz camp isn't answering any questions, but a lot of Schneller's petitions were circulated by Lentz supporters.) And what's more, as Alex Roarty at PoliticsPA points out, Schneller is very likely to stay on the ballot, which will undoubtedly help Lentz - and all the whining in the world won't change that.
  • WI-07: A shadowy right-wing 527 (are any of them not shadowy?) with the oddly dystopian name of "the New Prosperity Foundation" has a new TV ad trying to stereotype Dem Julie Lassa as a "big-spending politician." Of course, NWOTSOTB.
  • Fundraising: Aaron Blake and the staff at the Fix have truly done heroic work: They've compiled gubernatorial fundraising numbers, an epically daunting task given that you need to navigate a million different state SoS websites, with different interfaces, reporting requirements, and reporting periods. Still, somehow, they managed to do so, and they have the most recent fundraising nums for all the major gube races around the nation - just click on the "Governors Races" tab.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/4 (Morning Edition)
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    Sharron Angle is out with a new ad.
    You'll find it embedded here: http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    It's much better than her last ads, but it's rather hard to tie the falling house prices to Harry Reid.  That was the inevitable result of the bubble bursting, which was caused by runaway greed at all levels.  I don't think it'll do much though.  It may persuaded some undecideds, but I don't know.  

    Paging DCCyclone! ;)

    P.S. Allen West is a frightful person with no respect for human rights.  He's essentially in the same vein as Dick Cheney.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    It's her first good ad, but my thinking is like yours to some extent......
    I agree that the tie between Reid and the economy is a little weak in this ad.  The ad talks about Harry Reid's "policies" as if he's Governor or President.  Some swing voters will see it that way and go "meh."

    But then, I've read that the economy really is hurting Reid, just like it hurts every Democratic incumbent, Reid moreso because Nevada is the worst off of anywhere and Reid is the Senate leader.  Some swing voters will see it that way and move away from Reid for this.

    The real problem Angle has is that she's no longer a viable alternative to Reid.  It's not literally true that people vote for anyone against an unpopular incumbent.  Merely dragging down Reid doesn't translate into many more votes for Angle if people are convinced Angle will be no better for Nevada or for them personally.  A challenger HAS to meet the threshhold of being a minimally acceptable alternative, but Angle has become someone LESS than minimally acceptable.

    That being the case, I don't think she can win without rehabilitating her public image somewhat.  I'm surprised she hasn't put out a soft bio ad, because she needs it.  And she needs to weave her personal history into her campaign messaging.  Talk about happy stuff like being a mom and a grandma and her past jobs (outside politics) and her life as a kid and all those kinds of experiences to which most voters can relate.  She's got to soften her image somehow to actually win, or else the votes she doesn't get over the hump.

    I only hope her campaign doesn't read SSP and see my advice, because I'd hate to be the one responsible for reviving her campaign!  :-)

    But alas, she doesn't have anyone in her campaign smart enough to read this site.  :-D

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, really
    where the hell is the bio ad that makes her look awesome.  It appears her campaign is sticking to their campaign strategy of making this race about Reid when it no longer is.  This is probably a hard concept for her but she needs to evolve her campaign strategy and adapt to the new environment.  

    And thank you for finally pointing out why her attacking Reid seems so weak.  She needs to use different language.

    And to think, we thought Lowden was going to be fun to destroy after we were all reeling from her HCR/chicken comments.  I dont know if anyone compares to Angle.  Meet the Press needs to invite her and Reid, if she turns them down, she'll get negative press.  If she goes on, she'll be a gaffe-a-thon.


    [ Parent ]
    It's a better ad than the first one ...
    ...  because she's not in it!!  Seriously, the less she actually makes her campaign about herself, the better off she'll be.

    [ Parent ]
    "Runaway greed at all levels?"
    I think it's more that Las Vegas was one of those places, like Phoenix, the fringes of metro California (Riverside/San Bernardino in the south, and Stockton/Modesto in the north), and much of Florida, that were growing so fast that the housing market was the economy. Practically everyone was employed in a housing-related job: building, selling or financing houses. When the bubble burst, the entire economy collapsed.

    [ Parent ]
    LV
    Vegas was still more dependent on tourism than housing even during the bubble, but tourism always gets hammered during recessions. Combine that with the most ridiculous bubble of any metro area and you get the highest state unemployment rate in the nation. Nevada's way ahead of even Michigan now.  

    41, Ind, CA-05

    [ Parent ]
    NY-24
    That's bad news for Arcuri.  Both WFP and Independence Party's are actual parties that have voters that will vote that line.  I won't say they are straight party-line voters since obviously they are not.  Also seeing one candidates name 3 times on a ballot vs. another candidate only being there once could psychologically sway the uninformed voter. (Hence Arcuri'sa ttempt to "create" a NY Moderates Party)

    This is actually really bad news.  It will be interesting tos ee if Arcuri (D) beats Hanna (R), but Hanna (WFP) and Hanna (I) might carry him over the top.


    Uh, not quite right, Hanna didn't get the WFP line, either......
    The WFP would never endorse a Republican for Congress, and hasn't now.  They didn't endorse Arcuri, and I don't know that the WFP will have a line in this race this year, but they're definitely NOT endorsing Hanna.

    But the IP did endorse Hanna for this November, so that matters.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yup, I mis-read it
    Still, losing that line, either to Hanna or someone else, is bad bad bad.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree, I only hope the WFP line stays blank. (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    That's pretty unlikely, isn't it
    Doesn't NY have a requirement that certain amounts of votes are garnered each election to maintain the ballot line?  It would be to their detriment to leave it blank, wouldn't it?

    [ Parent ]
    That's the Governor's race.


    [ Parent ]
    So there aren't any rules about house races
    If that's the case, then they probably will leave it blank, unless there is an as yet unknown candidate out there they have in mind.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually it happends quite often in NY
    Permanent ballot status and placement in NY are determined by getting 50,000 votes in the Governors race. The most votes gets row A, 2nd row B and so on down the line.

    But just because a party has ballot space doesnt mean canidates automatically get on the ballot. They still need to collect signatures from voters of their own party to make the ballot. If no one gather enough signatures from party members to get their name on the ballot for a particular office than that spot goes blank.

    So it is quite possible for the WFP ballot spot to be left blank.

    The real advantage though is ballot placement (As Vic Rawls and Alvin Greene discovered).

    The problem for Arcuri will be that his made up "Moderate Party" will be hidden somewhere on the ballot where no one will be able to find it. Hanna will have Row B, C and D (Rep, Indy and Cons) while Arcuri will have Row A his "moderate party" will be somewhere on Row "J" where no one will find it.

    The main advantage to this is to use the made up parties "endorsement" in campaing literature.

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    [ Parent ]
    50,000?
    I didn't realize it was so small.  My guess is in about 10 20 years NY will have about 30 WFP type parties with qualifying ballot status.  Fusion voting will bring out the best (More choice...technically) and worst (possible fake parties) in politics.

    A very interesting item to discuss.

    Too bad the Liberal Party is gone.  Maybe it can make a comeback, based on 2006 the WFP certainly has enough votes to spare a few for another left-leaning party lol.

    My favorite party, which didn't qualify based on 2006, has to be the "Rent is too High" Party.  Another rare instance where I actually laughed out loud while learning on this site.

    http://www.elections.state.ny....  


    [ Parent ]
    Actually it is "The Rent is too Damn High" Party
    It was a bit of an issue in the last election since the Board of Election made him change the name of his party claiming "The Rent is too Damn High" was too long of a name. I believe McMillan (who is a total left leaning whack job and anti-semite)sued.


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    [ Parent ]
    How far are we from
    The "these pretzels are making me thirsty" party.

    [ Parent ]
    Not going to happen
    NYS election rules require a candidates party name to be no more than 15 letters. The "These Pretzels Are Making Me Thirsty" party has 31 letters and hence would be ineligible to be listed.

    However the "Thirsty Pretzels" Party would be alright.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Folks on here
    might be amused by (or even already aware of) the story of how the Guilty Party came to win 15% of the vote in a New Haven mayoral election, far surpassing the nonexistent Republicans.

    From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm become more convinced that Arcuri isn't going to make it
    He hasn't run that good of a campaign, and this ballot mess is just adding to the negative press. People seem to like Hanna in the district. I think Arcuri may be one of the few NY Dems gone this year.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Arcuri ran such a terrible campaign in 2008 that he'd be endangered this year no matter what......
    That Arcuri barely survived in '08 was the biggest surprise of that year in House races, bigger than any Democratic pickup, and bigger than Kanjorski's survival which while a mild surprise we knew both that he was severely endangered and that Obama coattails might save him.  A competent campaign would have won reelection easily, but Arcuri just escaped.

    Even if we had a good economy now and were looking at losing only 10-15 seats, Arcuri still would be one of those 10-15.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Also
    voting for health care the first time but against it the second time did not help him. Talk about stupidity, everyone's pissed at him because of it.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yup, but I took that as just proof that the signs of his poor political instincts from 2008...
    ...weren't a fluke.

    I'll be truly surprised if Arcuri wins.  There are some people who'll survive because they knew all along they'd be endangered in 2010, but Arcuri won't be one because he doesn't have the needed political skills.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah but if he does win
    Then what will we all be able to conclude?  

    Even if he loses, I expect it to be decently close.  He could win this, and trying to start this 3rd party thing at least shows he's trying (Unlike Kanjorksi circa 2008).

    We could all have egg on our face on this one, and I don't think we'd be able to offer up an explanation :-)


    [ Parent ]
    I doubt it
    We will not have to conclude anything as he is not going to win. You can quote me on that, I am not afraid of getting egg on my face. He barely had the political skills to make it in 2008 and has so far shown he does not have them now either. I do not expect it to be that close, I see him losing by 5-7% and I could be being generous with that.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Why exactly does everyone think he was so bad in 2008
    I don't quite understand it.  Did he do soemthing that I simply don't remember?

    [ Parent ]
    He just barely slipped by
    even as other 2006 freshmen from Republican districts such as Chris Carney and Gabby Giffords won by double digits.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Ehh he outpolled Obama in his district
    And I think Hanna is a darn near perfect fit for this district.  I'm not sure enough of Carney/Giffords races to say they were facing such a perfect opponent.

    I find Arcuri's to be in a mroe similar situation to Dahlkemper.  But I haven't heard people as anti-Dahlkemper as I have anti-Arcuri.


    [ Parent ]
    Dahlkemper
    ran against an incumbent, Arcuri was an incumbent himself. I think that's a big difference.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I was referring to the 2010 cycle
    Both won close races in 2008, so that is history.  But in 2010, I find their situations very close.

    [ Parent ]
    She doesnt seem to have zero political instinct
    What makes their situation's similar?  What am I missing?

    [ Parent ]
    He
    was an incumbent who barely won re-election in a VERY friendly year. He should have won by high single digits at worst, or low double digits. His performance was much lower than it should have been and I do not care if he outperformed Obama or not. If he could barely hold on in a great year how the heck is he going to hold on in a horrible year? Plus his campaign has been abysmal so far this cycle and I see no way he wins.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    They thought he was safe
    And scaled back the campaign, sending volunteers to other districts.

    [ Parent ]
    Why should he have won?
    It seems to me that hanna is a really strong challenger.  Moreso than many others faced in 2008.  I'm not sure how great a year it was in NY-20, and maybe he ran a bad campaign, but its just as likely he's in a bad spot against a very good challenger in 2010, as he was in 2008.

    Pobody's nerfect.


    [ Parent ]
    NY Overachievement
    I think losing a few in NY is to be expected.

    I know there is a belief that all of New England would be a permanent Dem super-duper majority, but it was more of a short-term pipe dream.  I think more seats flip Repub in NY than pretty much any other state this cycle.

    I don't know much about the Utica area, but I grew up in NY-20, have relatives in NY-29 and went to college in NY-22.  Upstate NY is probably as Republican as say mid-state PA.  There are Democratic pockets of course, but when Dems got 27-2 in NY, it was boredering on ridiculous. 24-5 is probably more reasonable, but with NY losing a seat I have no idea how the re-districting will make the delegation look in the future.

    I wouldn't be surprised if NY-24 flipped, and so be it.  Not a huge loss.  I'm more concerned about some of the other districts (NY-29 and a couple of others).  

    On the positive side, I never thought NY-20 and NY-23 would look so good for Dems at this point.  And having Cuomo vs. Lazio at the top of the ballot can only help, in pretty much every district.  Lazio was not a great draw upstate in 2000.  

    http://www.elections.state.ny....


    [ Parent ]
    NY is NOT New England
    and I feel cautiously optimistic about all of recently-gained New England seats save NH-02.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Upstate NY is pretty New England-y, especially along VT/MA borders
    Western NY is more Ohio-y and Pennsylvania-y in some places, and others not so much.

    Your comfort with recently gained New England seats is probably because we didn't gain that many recently.  

    Maine ahsn't elected a Republican Congressman since 1997.  Massachusetts hasn't had one since 1997.  Rhode Island hasn't had a Republican congressman since 1995.  We've picked up 3 seats in CT and 2 in NH in recent years.

    NY is where the gains have been made in the New-England/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.  Heading in to the 2006 elections, the NY delegation was 20-9, and heading into 2010 it was 27-2 (pre Massa fiasco).

    Whatever region you classify NY as, its clearly the biggest leader in seats gained in recent years of pretty much any state.  And thus, has the biggest risk of giving seats back of any state, even PA and OH (IMHO).


    [ Parent ]
    I'm from
    RI and I can say with 100% certainty that while NY may be "New England-y" it is definitely not New England. (also, I'm not sure what "New England-y" is supposed to mean--while Upstate NY may be similar to VT or the Berkshires, it doesn't bear resemblance to places like Boston or Providence which are just as much a part of New England as the rural areas).

    We've gained five seats in New England in the past two cycles (not counting VT-AL), that's nearly as many as the 7 gained in New York even though New England has fewer seats overall (22 for NE vs. 29 for NY). So I'd say New England has been up there with New York as a place for Democratic gains recently. And I feel pretty at ease about CT-02, CT-04, CT-05, and even NH-01. (and MA-10, although that is not a recently-gained seat.)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    NY is 1 state, New England is 5, that's all
    NY is a much higher risk of losing seats than New England.  We have gained more in New York since 2006 than New England.  

    I'm just talking a single state versus a region.  

    The 7 seat gain in NY to me is more relevant to the discussion because they are decently Republican areas that can and probably will swing back and forth from time to time.  I agree most of the NE gains are permanent, which is why I don't care about them in a discussion of at risk seats.


    [ Parent ]
    well
    NH-01 and CT-05 I might worry about in an open-seat situation (the former went for Bush twice and the latter just barely went for Kerry), but I think they're fine for the time being. And I agree that some of our gains in NY are tenuous.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    also
    New England is 6 states: ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I still treat VT as a separate country LOL


    [ Parent ]
    we are
    only when we talk succession we just want to be left alone to think and make dairy products.  we're not the metaphoric equivalent of a wackjob writing angry blog posts about the govt in his tinfoil hat.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    I thought it was 5 and two-thirds
       with western CT as part of the "tri-state area"...

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    [ Parent ]
    well, it's true that
    Fairfield County is much closer to NY than it is to the rest of New England, but I believe all of CT is considered New England for official purposes. For instance I believe my high school math league, the NEML (New England math league), would encompass the entirety of those six states.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    yeah, I was just playing
       also since I used to spend some time in Rhode Island I figure it is my duty to be somewhat disdainful of Connecticut. My mom is a native of MA and spent part of her teen years in NH so I have some New England ties though I am 100% Californian.  

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

    [ Parent ]
    My mom is from Massachusetts also!


    My blog
    Twitter
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    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    Haha, fair enough.
    IMO Connecticut has nothing of note besides the Mystic Aquarium, the rest is just huge houses (Fairfield County) and trees/casinos (the rest of the state).

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    But at the beginning of the cycle...
    A lot of people thought McMahon and Hall were toast, when now, it's looking more and more likely that they will win re-election. I think New York, like PA and OH, will be the states where Republicans CAN pick up a ton of seats, and places where the Dems will try to build a wall.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    I don't see NY as being that pessimistic..
    You've got one seat, NY-29, that is very likely going over to the GOP, one that's toss-up, NY-24, and the rest being highly favored to Dems. One thing Arcuri has working for him this time around is a very strong top of the ballot (Cuomo), a decent resurgence for dems in the state Senate upstate, and the fact that he's not asleep at the wheel this time around.

    One thing to be remember is that at redistricting, assuming we'll retain the state Senate (if not pick up a seat or two, as it seems likely), we can simply eliminate NY-29 by combining it with NY-26, and if necessary to dice up NY-24 and make a new district (perhaps one with Ithaca to ensure it goes Dem), so either way, we end up on top in 2012.


    [ Parent ]
    Us losing NY-24
    also makes it very easy redistricting wise because we can eliminate that district and shore up everyone else really easily.

    [ Parent ]
    Won't it actually be hard?
    I'm not the statistican that some are on this site, but didn't downstate actually gain population while upstate lost it?

    I don't know if just eliminating NY-24 works without serious changing of quite a few other district...BIG changes.

    I'd suspect NY-23 probably will need to grow even more massive since there's probably been some population loss there, maybe NY-20 also.

    I just worry that certain districts will need to get re-done.  I wonder if Hinchey's district gets the biggest change.  His has always had the weirdest shape and what looks to be an inconsistent constituency.  That weird shape that seems to be a downstate district that reaches very far west to grab a few college towns has always just looked weird to me, not just as a sort of gerrymander but just wondering what do people in Orange county and Pughkeepsie have in common with Ithace and Binghamton.

    Anyone know exactly what areas of NY lost population over the last 10 years?  


    [ Parent ]
    I just don't know if Cuomo at the top...
    helps Dems universally.  Sure Lazio is awful and has never been popular upstate.  But just because Cuomo will win BIG statewide doesn't mean he will win big in NY-24 or any of the other upstate districts.

    If Obama won NY-24 50-48, what should we expect Cuomo's margin in NY-24 to be?

    While I'm not all that pessimistic about NY in 2010, long term the gains just don't seem like they'll hold.  I think a max loss of 3 net seats is possible in 2010, but agree NY-29 is the only true "goner" as of today.  But the others could be more in play if there is a national game changer, and certainly in the future races places like NY-23 will be more "in play".


    [ Parent ]
    Obama won statewide 63-36
    I can see Cuomo topping that. Not to mention Gillibrand and particularly Schumer also being on the ballot.

    [ Parent ]
    Right, but the margins are from downstate
    McCain won only 4 districts, but NY-24 was McCain's next best performance, losing 48-50.

    No doubt Cuomo, Gillibrand and Schumer clean up down state, I just doubt their significant coattails upstate.


    [ Parent ]
    I bet Gillibrand has a funky map
    I can see her doing well upstate.

    [ Parent ]
    Of the 3, Gillibrand will do best upstate
    Still, she's no Hillary I don't think.  Hillary actually helped sway a lot of people towards voting Democratic again upstate, even though her own vote totals weren't overwhelming upstate.  She definitely held margins down.

    I just wonder if there are Lazio-Gillibrand voters in NY-24.  And if so, how much do they favor Hanna over Arcuri?  And would there be any Cuomo-Gillibrand-Schumer voters who wouldn't vote for Arcuri?

    It will be interesting to see how popular Gillibrand is outside of NY-20/21/22/23, the 4 districts of which at least part is in the Albany media market.


    [ Parent ]
    Especially eastern upstate NY (Hall/Arcuri/Owens)
    Her former district, NY-20, is on the eastern edge of the state. NY-20 borders the districts of somewhat vulnerable Ds in NY-19/23/24, so there would be some cross-over media markets where Gillibrand has been well known for years.

    [ Parent ]
    Working in NY-20 in 2008 (neighboring district)
    I can tell you that I didn't hear one person say Arcuri was vulnerable. I even heard he sent volunteers to other campaigns.

    I think he's going to actually campaign this year. I don't think he'll be caught sleeping this year.

    Remember, Upstate New York is prime time Tea Party country. I think that'll turn off a lot of people and Arcuri will be the benefactor. Don't write him off just yet.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


    [ Parent ]
    I'm not writing him off
    Though his HCR shenanigans clearly hurt him.

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    but there's a lot working in his favor. He retains a base in Utica, and lost Oneida with 47.68% of the vote. I think there's a lot of room for improvement, even if that's more than Obama won there.

    Me thinks that if his "Moderate Party" thing is successful, he's in much better shape.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


    [ Parent ]
    Yea an optimist
    I actually think its close too.  I grew up in ny-20 (near lake George) too and agree with you.  If he loses, it could simply because more people want Hannah to be their rep.

    [ Parent ]
    NM-Gov
    well, I'm now considering sending money to Denish. It's ridiculous how Republicans think they can get away with opposing a compromise in a swing state.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Reminds me of
    Like everything in life, your statement reminds me of an episode of the Simpsons.

    I think it was the one where Bart tries to get the teachers to go on strike.  At one point Ned Flanders is trying to mediate between Principal Skinner and Mrs. Kravopil...agree to disagree?:

    Audience: Raise taxes?  They're too high as they are.  
    Edna: It's your children's future.
    Audience: That's right.  Children are important. etc.
    Skinner: It'll cost you.
    Audience: No to taxes.  My God, they're going to raise taxes. etc.
    Edna: C'mon!
    Audience: She makes a good case.  Good point. etc.
    Skinner: [rubs his fingertips together]
    Audience: More taxes?  The finger thing means the taxes.
    Ned: Well, I guess this is a case where we'll have to agree to disagree.
    Skinner: I don't agree to that.
    Edna: Neither do I!
    Ned: Ho, ho, this is a dilly of a pickle.

    -- So much for being conciliatory, "The PTA Disbands"


    [ Parent ]
    That scene is classic!


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    LOL there it is
    Much better than reading the actual text.  Accurately portrays how crazy the small town "townspeople" become over school issues (not just taxes, but EVERYTHING).

    [ Parent ]
    OMG
    I've been looking for this clip forever. THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU!!

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    BTW
    that clip. Yeah, you better believe that's a paddlin'.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    paddling the school canoe?


    [ Parent ]
    :)


    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    I clearly need to watch the Simpsons again
    I should have remembered this since becoming uber political.  Such a classic.

    [ Parent ]
    PA-07
    I'm never a fan of 2 wrongs making a right, but didn't Republicans fund the Green Party signature drive in texas this year?  And wasn't it semi-illegal?

    If Lentz' camp turns out to have helped the 3rd party but done nothing illegal, its really much ado about nothing.  How its spun in the media is another issue altogether, and soemthing we'll all have to watch.


    Bill Luther in MN-2 did this
    Anyone knowledgeable on how that turned out?  He ended up losing 53-42, a very solid margin.  And while he was the incumbent, this was the first election after redistricting where his district was given a lot of new, extremely Republican and conservative territory.

    I remember reading he got hosed for this, and a campaign intern of his at the time said he was pretty disillusioned by Luther because of this.  But that's one fleeting read that I can't find and a single bit of anecdotal evidence.


    [ Parent ]
    Guv fundraising
    Really no huge disappointments there when you think about it.  

    PA looks terrible but given PA was likely to elect a Republican given there "every 8 years let's switch" mentality to governor's parties, I'm not too worried.  Onorato just needs to keep it close so he doesn't sink Sestak, which is a real concern of mine.


    PA-GOV
    Back in 2006, of course, Rendell raised all they money (unlimited contributions in state races) so that his campaign could essentially run field for the whole Dem slate.  He had $13M+ CoH by mid-May.

    [ Parent ]
    Rendell had many a finacial ally
    Still Onorato needs to keep it close.  While there will be Corbett-Sestak voters, Sestak can't afford Onorato losing by 20 points I don't think.

    Maybe Sestak will be the breadwinner and try and help Onorato and maybe some house candidates across the line, if possible.

    PA will be very interesting this Fall.


    [ Parent ]
    there's only so much bread out there ...
    ... at $2400/per, compared with the gubernatorial limits.

    [ Parent ]
    who appears first on the ballot?
    Or is it always gubernatorial in every state?

    [ Parent ]
    US-SEN, then Gov, then Congress. nt


    [ Parent ]
    Is Marco moving to the center?
    By election day, I think he could start crowding out Crist. Assuming Rubio has proven his bonafides ala W 2000, it should not cost him among the wingnut crowd, especially in light of Greene's assumed travails to Cuba.

    Actually, I think he's simply revealing he's not and was never a true teabagger......
    Rubio played the teabaggers and the rest of the hard right real well, no doubt, right from the start.  But he used to be Florida House Speaker, and you don't achieve that without being a good establishmentarian.

    And being a good establishmentarian also automatically means you have a connection to reality in policymaking, even if you go off the deep end sometimes or if you keep it to yourself so as not to piss off your batshit crazy voting base.

    Rubio is not, and never was, another Sharron Angle or Rand Paul or Ken Buck.

    But he is extremely conservative, and that alone makes him unpalatable and requires us to root for an alternative, which realistically means Crist.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Ah, but see
    What if GOP voters realize that Rubio has played them (Demon Sheep?).  I suspect they may become unmotivated, especially the way the gov race is looking on their side.  This could, and would be Meeks only way in.  Except he would kinda have to win the primary first...

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    Yes, btu so far he's still raking them in
    Also, hopefully the DGA will throw a bone or two Onorato's way.  I can think of about 5+ races where the money is better spent (White, Sink, Dayton, Denish, Kitzhaber< Barnes), but I'm sure the DGA doesn't want Onorato losing by 20 either.

    [ Parent ]
    NWOTSOTB
    I still don't get what it means.

    "No word on the size of the buy"
    That is, it's great that candidates are airing ads, but without knowing how much they're plunking down (and therefore not knowing geography, saturation, and whether its cable or broadcast), it's hard to gauge the effect.

    [ Parent ]
    In other words
    It's often more of a video press release, aimed at attracting free media coverage.

    [ Parent ]
    No word on the size of the buy


    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Ras is beginning the climb into reality, me thinks
    OH-SEN
    Protman (R) 44%
    Fisher (D) 40%

    FL-GOV
    McCollum (R) 27%
    Sink (D) 31%
    Chiles (I) 20%

    Scott (R) 35%
    Sink (D) 31%
    Chiles (I) 16%

    These are not the dominating results you usually get out of him. In fact, his numbers have seemed more grounded to me for the last month or so. Still R shift, but not by a great margin. Helps there is polling out there now that is recent enough to compare RR against.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


    Regarding OH-Sen
    since March 23rd, there have been 11 polls conducted on the Ohio Senate race, 5 of which have been conducted by Rassmussen.  Rob Portman has led in 4 of the 5 Rassmussen polls, while Fisher is 6 for 6 in the polls conducted by other organizations.  


    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    How heavily has Portman
    Been spending on ads? You said something the other day that he has been up the last few weeks if I remember rightly.

    [ Parent ]
    yeah
    he's running a mostly introductory bio ad, detailing his experience in public service in Ohio.  Interestingly enough he mentioned his service in Congress as representative for OH-2, but he makes no mention of his being OMB director under Bush.  

    I've only seen it twice in two weeks, so either he's targeting other parts of the state more heavily or this isn't much of a buy.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    I keep expecting him
    To jump into a significant lead but it seems stuck. Frankly, I'm surprised Portman hasn't gone for an early knock out blow.

    [ Parent ]
    Ohio's Meg Whitman...
    I hope...

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    Portman can't do what Harry Reid has done because Ohio is too big and too expensive......
    Reid went for the knockout blow because he could.

    Conway would have done the same to Paul if he had the kind of wealth to write a $10 million check out-of-pocket.

    And Portman would do the same if it wasn't for the fact Ohio is huge, and $9 million while a healthy haul just runs out faster than in Nevada, which is so small and so cheap that Reid probably will leave the election with millions banked unless he personally bankrolls the state party's entire field effort (which might be a smart thing for him to do).

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I'm not a PC troll
    but I don't think anyone should use phrase "off the reservation" or anything similar. I'm pretty sure it's offensive to some Native Americans. Granted, there's debate over this terminology, but I'd just stay away.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    What's your alternative?
    "off the team" sounds so corporate.

    [ Parent ]
    I read the headline
    And thought "Murphy who?"

    http://politicalticker.blogs.c...


    I look forward to him losing the primary
    By about 20 points.  Or maybe 30.

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen: Yet another Blumenthal = Coakley comparison
    Snooze
    Lazy journalism. No ads yet but he probably shouldn't leave it too much longer to engage her.

    http://blogs.courant.com/capit...


    [ Parent ]
    Hasn't he been running ads
    Since the Vietnam flap?  

    [ Parent ]
    I see the update
    Journalism's dead and gone period. Sigh.

    [ Parent ]
    Well she's creeping up on him, his lead down to 10 in the new Q-poll......
    It's 50-40 now.  She's been on TV all the time, him not at all.  It tells you how blue CT is, and how unserious a candidate McMahon is, that she's been on the air so much and Blumenthal not at all, in a strongly anti-Democratic environment, and yet he's still up by double-digits.  But that won't last forever, he needs to get on the air and put an end to this.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    He's been on TV
    The part of the article saying he hasn't is struck through. Also, see these:



    All from the beginning of June.  

    [ Parent ]
    So the Courant is wrong?
    Or are they distinguishing between general election ads? Anyway, it is now early August so if those were out in early June and McMahon has been hammering him for two months solid without reply I'm not surprised the gap has shrunk. Maybre that is what they meant.

    [ Parent ]

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