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SSP Daily Digest: 8/3 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Aug 03, 2010 at 3:40 PM EDT


• CO-Sen: Now it's Michael Bennet's turn to dip into his personal funds to pay for the closing days of the Democratic Senate primary. After Andrew Romanoff posted a lead in the most recent poll of the primary (and sold his house to finance his last push), now Bennet's fronting himself $300K. Here's some good news, though, if Romanoff does succeed in pulling off the upset: he's reversed course on his previous refusals of DSCC help (seemingly aware of the difficulty of winning without it, with him having burned through all his money on the primary). Meanwhile, on the GOP side of the fence, John McCain is providing some good news! for Jane Norton. He'll be stumping on her behalf soon, and also sent around a fundraising e-mail, asking for another $200K for Norton and attacking Ken Buck's past prosecutorial misconduct. (Buck responded by saying that McCain and "his lobbyist friends" were "greasing the power brokers" for Norton. "Greasing the power brokers?" I'm not even sure what that means, and I don't know if I want to.)

• PA-Sen: Diarist cilerder86 does some digging into Joe Sestak's Act Blue contributions, and finds that his fundraising isn't letting up at all. In fact, based on Act Blue data (which seems to have a stable relationship with his overall fundraising), he extrapolates Sestak having raised at least $1.1 million in July, and on track to raise at least $3 million this quarter.

• CO-Gov: It looks like John Hickenlooper had the right idea emptying his coffers to reserve cheap ad space and hope they'd get refilled quickly, because they did. Of course, it helps that he got a big assist from Scott McInnis's well-timed implosion. Hickenlooper's pre-primary report had $203K raised in the last two weeks of July, compared with $41K for McInnis and $20K for fellow GOPer Dan Maes.

• GA-Gov: With Barack Obama speaking in Atlanta, Dem nominee Roy Barnes managed to be found in a totally different part of the state, meeting in rural Monroe County with 28 county sheriffs who are supporting his candidacy at a previously-scheduled engagement. Barnes said, "I'd rather be with these folks, if you want to know the truth. I'm not running for governor of Washington D.C. I'm running for governor of Georgia."

• HI-Gov: Mufi Hannemann is the money leader in the Hawaii governor's race. He raised $822K in the first half of the year, and is sitting on $2 million CoH. Democratic primary rival Neil Abercrombie raised $712K in that period, but spent considerably, leaving him with only $469K CoH. Republican Duke Aiona raised $374K in the first half, and has $719K CoH.

• MI-Gov: There's word of one more poll out in Michigan of the Dem gubernatorial primary. Details are, well, sketchy; all I can tell you is that it's from a firm I've never heard of, Foster McCollum White & Associates, and I have no idea whether it's a public poll or an internal from Virg Bernero or an ally. At any rate, it's more evidence for a late Bernero surge, giving him a 50-22 lead over Andy Dillon.

• MA-10: With most of the attention having fallen on the flawed Republican candidates in this open seat race, it's easy to forget there's still a competitive Democratic primary between two well-established fixtures here too. State Sen. Robert O'Leary has the lead in his own internal poll, conducted by Gerstein-Agne. He leads Norfolk Co. DA William Keating 44-38, with a 57-38 lead among voters who know both candidates.

• NY-25: Dueling internals got rolled out in the 25th, which is pretty low on people's priority lists in New York, but still needs to be watched carefully, given the climate of the day. Republican challenger Ann Marie Buerkle (one of the more obscure Mama Grizzlies) offered a poll from McLaughlin & Associates giving Democratic incumbent Dan Maffei a 46-37 lead (and closer numbers among those who've heard of both). Maffei responded with a Kiley & Co. poll giving him a 54-35 lead instead.

• Rasmussen:
• AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 34%, John McCain (R-inc) 53%
• AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 43%, J.D. Hayworth (R) 38%
• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 43%, Scott McInnis (R) 25%, Tom Tancredo (I) 24%
• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 42%, Dan Maes (R) 27%, Tom Tancredo (I) 24%
• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 50%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%
• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 48%, Bruce Blakeman (R) 34%
• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 51%, David Malpass (R) 31%
• SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 20%, Jim DeMint (R-inc) 62%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/3 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 8/3 (Afternoon Edition) | 65 comments
Methinks Maffei is up 50-36

I know it won't happen, but part of me is still hoping JD Hayworth upsets McCain
Hayworth has dropped off a lot, but I'm still crossing my fingers he can beat McCain and send this race into toss up territory for the general.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
SC-Sen
Headline on Alvin Greene's web site tomorrow.

"Rasmussen Poll: Greene narrows the gap!"

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

Hickenlooper looks brilliant
How does Colorado treat their incumbents usually?  Is this a seat we could expect him to hold on to for a while if he wins?  

I am somewhat worried about the Tancredo movement.  I know it seems unlikely, but god help us if McInnin/Maes drops out and endorses Tancredo.  Sure he'd still be an underdog, but I don't like the thought of crazy (Tancredo) + stupid (McInnis) teaming up ever.

Hick is very popular in Denver
No reason to think he will become a Bill Ritter and become unpopular overnight by making dumb moves.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Like Romanoff even more now
I hope the primary is conclusive.  I don't want a recount.  I expect the loser to endorse the winner almost immediately.  We just can't have a recount.
Ugh...
Disagree, I can't stand Romanoff. I thinke he is a sleazy say or do anything career politician. I do not see how he is any more electable or progressive than Bennet. No, they have no difference in their political views and I would even say that Bennet stands a better chance in November. I have no doubt Bennet will be a better Senator than Romanoff either. If Romanoff wins I will support him but I plan to give Bennet fifty bucks and I can honestly say I would not do the same for Romanoff. I do agree with you that I hope we have a winner on election night, I do not want a recount, no one does.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Why do you say this?
Just curious...I always thought Romanoff was the "reform" politician in the race.  
[ Parent ]
I
dislike Romanoff for several reasons. I think he is a career politician because I do not think there was any reason to primary Bennet. He is not more progressive or electable than Bennet, and it just seems to me that it is a power grab, he has been in politics awhile and he is putting his personal interest above the Parties interest. I think he is a say or do anything politician because well if you look at his campaign he has said and done everything just to get elected. He has veered to the left like crazy (He is more or less a DLC type but he is trying to claim to be ultra progressive) and has done some low ball attacking against Bennet. I say he is sleazy because of the way he attacks Bennet. It is so consistently negative. Did you see him on Hardball the other night? He kept on attacking him for taking money from PACS but was not able to answer simple questions about were he got his money from. As for Romanoff being the "reform politician" that is what he would want you to think but I see him as just another insider. Bennet is the one who has actually worked to get honest reforms in the Senate, he has worked to get rid of the revolving door that is so rampant in Washington and is the true reform candidate. Romanoff would not be a bad Senator necessarily but I think Bennet could be a great one.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
What has Romanoff done?
I haven't heard much really negative about him.  I like that he's fighting.  The fact Bennett is sitting on millions and let broke Romanoff define him in his ads so far.
[ Parent ]
See my post above.
Honestly at the end of the day I just plain and simply like Bennet, I really do and honestly I dislike Romanoff a lot for some reason. Ever since he announced I have resented him for messing up our chances here.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
The only way he hurts Dem chances
How does he do it.  If he wins them he wasn't that great.  If Bennett wins the primary then I don't see how he's hurt.  Would you feel the same if Romanoff had been the appointed tee and Bennett thechallenger
[ Parent ]
The public option letter through reconciliation won it for me!
When it's that and his fundraising, there wasnt much of a choice left.  And he didnt have to sell his house to get $300k.  Not that Im agreeing with self-funding, but when the opposite is selling your house...  

Was this even his primary residence, where does he live then?  If it's just an extra house, well then it might as well be self-funding.

[ Parent ]
I still don't think it's fair to describe Buck's conduct as...
"prosecutorial misconduct." Buck disclosed perceived weaknesses in his case. The term "prosecutorial misconduct" ought to be reserced for actions that trench on the rights of a defendant to a fair trial, or which create a risk of erroneous conviction. It's important for two reasons: 1) it is a more serious charge than Buck's conduct merited, though Buck was clearly out of school in disclosing this information to a third party for political gain, and 2) it creates a false equivalence between breaches of office policy to the detriment of the prosecution, and conduct that generally undermines the integrity of the justice system. The issue is bigger than this moron, or his unmistakeably poor judgment in this episode.
Indiana Republican candidate tweets about "barebacking"
http://twitter.com/jonfussle/s...
Wow, AWKWARD! Read his tweets after he found out the other meaning of bare backing: http://twitter.com/jonfussle/s...

You made my day!
   "I'm gonna be sore tomorrow!"  Ahahahahaha!

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
So he was barebacking a horse? No wonder he'll be sore tomorrow!

[ Parent ]
I am so embarrassed for him....
this made my day a million times over.
[ Parent ]
ugh
stupid China and its internet block! can't wait to be back in democracyland in less than a week!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
a candidate
For local office in IN said this: "Barebacking again in northern Indiana... Oh my goodness, I'm gonna be sore tomorrow!"
[ Parent ]
......
what did he think it meant? lol.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
NV Senate
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38...

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid leads his Republican rival Sharron Angle by 48 percent to 44 percent among likely Nevada voters, a Reuters-Ipsos poll found Tuesday.

Reid led Tea Party favorite Angle 52 percent to 36 percent among registered voters



"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Those are such stark differences
between likely and registered voters.  Really like that they did both, as DCCCyclone puts it, it's just something more (and really fun) to intellectually masturbate to.
[ Parent ]
It's an important thing, because
if you take 100% of the non-likely-voters, some percentage will in fact vote.

This not a small point because "unlikely" is a sliding scale.  Some will not vote no matter what.  Some have a 10% chance of voting, etc.

When you only count likely voters, you are making a logic error in your polling.

Bottom line, if this poll was tied in "likely voters", and the numbers were the same for registered voters, Reid would win on election day if the X% of non-likely voters ened up voting along the lines of the polls.  In other words, while the poll says Reid leads by 4%, it is actually 4%+ with the exact amount of the "+" being unknown.

[ Parent ]
Please present data to back up your assertion
what percentage of "non-likely" voters actually vote?
[ Parent ]
Data? Oh for heaven's sake
Now you are asserting not even one non-likely voter will vote?

I'm only asserting "some" will.  That "some" will depend on a lot of things, maybe most obviously the weather.

"Some" may be 1% or 8% or whatever.  It doesn't matter.  That group favors Reid significantly.

[ Parent ]
Even if it's only 10%, it's essentially irrelevent
it makes a difference of 1/2 of a %, complete statistical noise. In terms of variance, it's the functional equivalent of making a mountain out of a molehill that might not even be there.  
[ Parent ]
And some of the likely voters won't vote...
I mean you really can't go down that rabbit hole. Too many variables going on for it to be useful.  
[ Parent ]
Of course, and that favors Reid too
It's not a rabbit hole.  It is a mathematical certainty.
[ Parent ]
Incorrect
Especially if "likely" Reid voters end up not voting in larger numbers.

And given an enthusiasm gap, that is the most likely outcome of likely voters who don't vote.

Nevertheless, it's all mountains associated with molehills that might not even be there.  

[ Parent ]
GA-GOV
I think Barnes made the right move. Those Sheriffs will do much more to help Barnes than Obama could ever do in Georgia.

A few on the left are complaining, but I believe most Georgia Democrats agree with Barnes decision.

I'm not so sure.
   Barnes needs left-wing votes too.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Best to save the liberal visitors forlater
A joint appearance would be great for an ad for Repubs.  If Obama or others want to come, late October us perfect.  And there are plenty of races on the south Obama should plan on helping with then.
[ Parent ]
I really loved Rahm threatening Rep. Israel
with Obama personally door-knocking AA neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens for Gillibrand if he ran against her.  I want to see this in action, but against the GOP.

Could backfire in GA because I mean, is there any better way to tie Obama to Barnes?  But Obama could certainly do that in HI, IL, CA, or MD.  (It'd go a long way in IL-10 and HI-1.)

I'll always remember watching the video of the AA Univ. in a TX county that closed down most of it's polling places for the primary in an effort to get them to not vote for Obama.  They marched miles down a highway chanting O-BA-MA to go and vote.  

We're ready to follow you Mr. President, you just need to lead us again.

[ Parent ]
Um
It's impossible to win in Georgia with just the liberal vote. You've got to craft a coalition of centrists and conservative leaning voters as well.

Barnes is reaching out to the left, center, and right.

My point was that spending the day in rural Georgia with a group of local law enforcement, including some Perdue appointees, will help out much more than having his photograph taken with the President.

I'm still not sure why Obama thought coming to Georgia for a fundraiser at this time was a good idea.

[ Parent ]
"Too"
   Didn't Barnes lose the first time because he ignored his let flank?

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I thought it was the flag flap
No?
[ Parent ]
No?
I do not consider educators nor rural Georgia as being part of the "left flank".

If anything, Barnes ran too far to the left for many.

[ Parent ]
Money Talks
First of all, I'm pretty sure President Obama does not sit around and "think" about when would be the most felicitous time to come to a state.
But if you're asking why Obama's political team thought it was a good idea he come to Georgia, its because there's never a bad time to raise money. Ever. And there are plenty of liberals in Atlanta who will be drawn to a Presidential event and give money that can be used strategically to help other candidates. He's not going to GA to stump for Barnes.  
[ Parent ]
Hrmm
Yeah, you're right, who cares how it'll impact the statewide and downballot races in November.

Sure, he did not come to stump for Barnes, but if you think Barnes showing up at the fundraiser would have been a great idea, then, well, I'd ask you to study the state a little more.

As far as the fundraising itself, Obama could have easily raised money elsewhere.

[ Parent ]
Re: Hrmm
I do not think that Barnes showing up for a fundraiser would have been "a great idea." But the point is, just because Roy Barnes is running for Governor, that does not make Atlanta off limits for a Presidential fundraiser.
Also, its really off-base to think that having the President doing a political event in the state of Georgia (a private one at that) in August will impact statewide and downballot races throughout the state in November. That's simply not true in the least.  
[ Parent ]
Here's what I think
The Barnes campaign was like, hey, come do a fundraiser, but come on a day where I have big campaign plans that take me far away from Atlanta and that would look AWFUL if I cancel.  Meeting with 28 county sheriffs, that definitely qualifies.  Barnes can't cancel a campaign event like that, and Obama is President so the day he picks is the day it is.

Just a little muss and fuss, nothing that wont subside in a day or two.

[ Parent ]
Agreed. This is the South ..
... Obama is no help to him in GA.  
[ Parent ]
Yup, and I'm sure Obama's feelings aren't hurt, he wants Barnes to WIN......
Politics is tough and cold.  Obama knows that.  Any President knows that, they all went through the ringer to get to that perch.

Obama wants Democrats to win this November any way they can.

A Barnes win is a win for Obama, it doesn't matter what Barnes said or did during the campaign to get there.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
This is why I am confident
Jerry Brown wins in November. He still leads in most polls despite spending barely over $600k while Meg Whitman has spent over a $100m. I knew it was bad but that is a breathtaking disparity.

http://www.fresnobee.com/2010/...

Though the involvement of Trippi does concern me slightly.

I, too, smiled happily when I saw that. The key is that Brown actually HAS...
...the $23.2 million.  So he's not really "doing nothing."  You don't raise that kind of money, even in massive California, by sitting on your ass.

Well, actually, that's not true, you DO raise it sitting on your ass......with a phone to your ear!

I will say Brown has been a little lucky that Whitman's ad bombing hasn't debilitated him yet.  He's gambled on her gambit not working as well as she hoped, and so far he's right.  But he won't be right forever, at some point he's gotta make the ad buys.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Looking at Brown's campaign style in that article
This is why I am very confident he is going to win. His low-budget ways will pay off, not just literally, but figuratively. With many Californians tightening their belts, when they see eMeg throwing money all over the place, those not already fed up with seeing her on TV all the time will likely become disgusted at her being able to burn tons of money while they're forced to cut back.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Whitman's
spending 100 million to convince Californians she's fiscally conservative. Gotta love the hypocrisy!  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
GA-Gov: A WTF? Picture
http://clatl.com/freshloaf/arc...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
New Sharron Angle craziness

We want them [the media] to ask the questions we want to answer so that they report the news the way we want it to be reported.

Watch the whole thing, she even mentions fundraising and, well, wow.  She's such a moron.  Im starting to regret ever saying a bad thing about Harry Reid as Majority Leader.  He's a scrappy son of a bitch, and I like love it.

This
is what happens when you nominate people who do not know what the hell they are supposed to be doing. I am willing to bet she actually believes this and she didn't understand that she should have kept it to herself. This is what you get when you nominate people like her.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
NY 13 - Some information about McMahon spokesperson Jennifer Nelson
Someone suggested that Jennifer Nelson's comments about Grimm's "Jewish Money" were so bizarre and such political suicide that she probably was a plant.

Interestingly it turns out ten years before being hired by Mike McMahon's campaign 3 months ago as his spokesperson she was in fact the spokesperson for Guy Molinari, former Republican Congressman and Borough President as well as political godfather of Michael Grimm.

http://www.observer.com/2010/p...

It's mentioned in the last paragraph of the silive story.  Though I can't recall seeing that mentioned before. Wish I could find that issue of the Advance so I could double check if it was a silent edit.

http://www.silive.com/news/ind...

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

In California
 Although people think Republicans have all the money (Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina,) there is one Democrat who actually has more money than her opponent.

http://cbs5.com/local/kamala.h...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

another one is Bill Lockyer, CA Treasurer
   He will be easily re-elected. He is sitting on several million dollars, which he raised when he was thinking of running for Governor. I don't expect that his GOP opponent, Mimi Walters, has more than a few hundred thousand dollars, if that.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Here's
the fundraising reports for the downballot races. You gotta love the Sac Bee Capital Alert blog

http://blogs.sacbee.com/capito...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
New Poll
in Louisville Mayoral election

Fischer (D)-45
Heiner (R)-45

538 likely Jefferson County voters surveyed July 29 through Aug. 1 by SurveyUSA.

Shit just got real. Before the primary I did not think Heiner was that serious but it is clear now that this will be very competitive. I know you are probably thinking who cares, but if Heiner wins and becomes popular then he could run to succeed Yarmuth whenever he retires. Louisville is very liberal I mean I can't even remember it ever having a Republican mayor, not in my lifetime anyway. The incumbent Mayor has been on the job on the job (minus one term) since 1986. He has been dubbed the title "Mayor for life" and honestly I think voters might want to spice things up a bit. This is not rare, I mean it is happening in Oregon right now and happened in Idaho in 2006. Plus Heiner is fairly liberal I think, I believe (could be wrong, just heard from a friend) he is pro-choice and gay friendly. I still expect Fischer to win though. He will advertise like you would not believe and honestly I think Fischer will get the libs out, Yarmuth will help him. The bright spot in this is that it could actually help Conway as it will drive out turnout and those voting for Heiner can probably stand a moderate Republican like him but would never vote for Paul and Conway is from here and is liked by pretty much everyone. Just one theory though.  

http://www.courier-journal.com...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

"official" Pawlenty 2012 FB page?
http://www.facebook.com/pages/...
Is there anyway to tell if this actually is associated with T-Paw?  
CT-Sen: McMahon chops Blumenthal lead to 50-40
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129...

McMahon's still up double-digits over Simmons, and she now leads Blumenthal among Indies.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Looks bad at first glance
Even if I believe everything in this poll, and its mostly logical really, there is one huge ray of hope to Blumenthal cruising.

His favorables, even after the war story debacle, is at 57-30, +27.  McMahon's favorables, with really no huge huge missteps so far and not much attacking from Blumenthal, stand at 43-37, +6.  Even Simmons is at 40-14, +26.

I could see her ending up being more unfavorable after the general starts, and who knows how much of an attack Blumenthal might mount.  

I know Linda Mcmahon has money, but Blumenthal looks pretty Teflon so far.  I don't know that Linda possesses the same ability.

And that gives me all the comfort in the world in this race.

[ Parent ]
Is Blumenthal conserving cash?
Is this another version of Brown/Whitman? I assume McM has been running negative ads for some time.  
[ Parent ]
I have no idea
I checke dout the FEC website and as of 6-30 he had $2.1M on hand.  Given theat Western CT I think is in the NY market, that's probably not that much.

Linda McMahon's status on the FEC site is weird..must be a typo.  $22.1M recived, $21.4M spent, $760K COH and $21.5M in debt.  Is that all true?  I haven't been following this race that closely.  (Also inf ull disclosure I'm not an expert on the FEC website)

[ Parent ]
Yeah, part of CT is in the NY market
$2.1 million is still respectable (and I think Blumenthal might be able to self-finance himself to an extent; he does, after all, live in a big fancy house in Greenwich, aka WASP Central), but in a state like, I dunno, Nebraska, it'd be a ton. In CT it's enough but not overwhelming.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Agreed
Just, in my gut, it seems like he should have more money.  I don't know why, but $2M just doesn't seem like enough at this point.

Has he sworn of PAC's or avoided Wall St $$$ or anything like that?

[ Parent ]
Yeah
She self funds as she needs it. She is making loans, which I assume she will forgive after the campaign is over.  
[ Parent ]
Her advisers
Say they are getting ready for a barrage of negative attacks against Blumenthal. They have been mostly positive so far.  
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 8/3 (Afternoon Edition) | 65 comments

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