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SSP Daily Digest: 8/2 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 7:39 AM EDT


  • CT-Sen: Linda McMahon has already spent at least $22 million on her senatorial bid - and though she has plans to shell out much more, she's already the fourth-largest self-funder of all time. The good news is that the top three are pretty uninspiring: Jon Corzine (NJ-Sen 2000: $60 million, 50.1% in general); Blair Hull (IL-Sen 2004: $29 million, 11% in primary); Michael Huffington (CA-Sen 1994: $28 million, 45% in general). Check out the second page of CQ's piece to see who rounds out the rest of the top 10. Only three actually won a seat in the Senate, and all of them served one term or less - by choice!
  • FL-Sen: Ah - live by the zillionaire asshole, die by the zillionaire asshole. Joe Trippi, who apparently thought he could make a buck by helping schmuckface Jeff Greene run negative ads against Kendrick Meek, has been axed. This is pretty unsurprising, in light of an in-depth story by the St. Pete Times which catalogs just how much of a jerkass Greene actually is. Here's a representative sample:
  • Adam Lambert worked as captain of Greene's 145-foot yacht, Summerwind, earlier this year.

    "He has total disregard for anybody else,'' chuckled Lambert, who said he was Greene's 20th and 22nd Summerwind captain (No. 21 quit after a few hours with Greene).

    "I don't think I ever once had an actual conversation with him. It was always, 'I should just get rid of you, what f------ good are you? You're just a f------ boat driver. You're the third-highest paid employee in my corporation and I should just get rid of you,' '' Lambert, 43, recalled by phone from a yacht in Croatia. "It didn't bother me. I just felt sorry for the man. He doesn't seem very happy."

    Quite apropos of all this, Dave Catanese takes a look at the "band of others" which has come together to run Charlie Crist's campaign. Catanese says that Crist's team "is staffed by a collection of misfits who run the gamut from longtime loyalists to out-of-state hired guns. They have worked for Democrats, for Republicans and even for prominent independents. As with Crist, ideology appears to take a back seat to winning office."

  • MO-Sen: Mostly-failed teabagger Chuck Purgason has an internal poll out (at least, I think it's an internal) from Magellan Strategies... but that's not really the point. There are two super-huge problems with this poll. First off, there are literally zero undecideds - Purgason claims he's beating Dem Robin Carnahan 56-44. Secondly, releasing a general election poll just days before an almost hopeless primary looks extremely unserious. I don't give a damn about Purgason, but I don't think either of these issues make Magellan look particularly good.
  • GA-Gov: Barack Obama is visiting Atlanta to speak to a disabled veterans convention and to host a DNC fundraiser today, but Dem gubernatorial candidate Roy Barnes will be visiting other parts of the state. Several prominent Dems are planning to attend the events, including Labor Comm'r Michael Thurmond (our senate nominee), and Reps. David Scott and Sanford Bishop, the latter of whom has a competitive race this fall.
  • NY-Gov: Steve Levy has completed his transition from widely disliked xenophobic DINO to memorable Republican loser: He said he wouldn't seek the Independence Party's line this fall, and formally gave his backing to Rick Lazio.  Meanwhile, Elizabeth Benjamin says a source tells her that another disgruntled Republican, the vile Carl Paladino, is doing the opposite - he's reconsidering his decision not to run on a third-party line and may run on his own "Taxpayers Party" line if he loses the GOP primary in September. Apparently, the teabaggers are taking the long view here, hoping that they can create a "true" conservative rival to the, ah, Conservative Party, even if that means helping Andrew Cuomo win the gubernatorial race.
  • WY-Gov: Mason-Dixon did a poll of the Wyoming gubernatorial primaries for the Casper Star-Tribune. On the GOP side, state Auditor Rita Meyer leads with 27, followed by former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead with 24, House Speaker Colin Simpson with 17, and former legislator and state Ag. Director Ron Micheli with 12. For Democrats, former state Dem chair Leslie Petersen leads pilot and former University of Wyoming football star Pete Gosar by a 30-22 margin.
  • FL-08: Franking - the privilege that allows members of Congress to mail out nominally "informational" materials to constituents at taxpayer expense - is one of those things that's usually a lame non-issue... until it's an issue. Incumbents have been pushing the boundaries of proper franking for centuries, and it rarely gets traction in campaigns, but I really wonder if Alan Grayson's gone too far with this one. He recently sent out a DVD to 100,000 homes in his district (at a cost of $73K) titled "Watch Congressman Grayson in Action!" featuring a few dozen clips of his greatest hits in office. Maybe the video will be popular, maybe no one will care, maybe some Republicans will howl and get ignored - we'll see.
  • IL-10 (PDF): It's a bit musty, but Mike Memoli got his hands on an internal poll from the Dan Seals campaign taken in mid-May by Anzalone-Liszt. The numbers are a damn sight better than most Dem internals, showing Seals with a 46-38 lead over Republican Bob Dold, and a 41-32 lead among independents. Despite the poll's age, I'd be surprised if things had changed a whole lot since then, given that the air war hasn't really been joined yet.
  • IL-13: Dem Scott Harper had apparently been trying to shop the results of an informed ballot test on a recent internal poll from Global Strategy Group but didn't seem to get many bites. So he finally decided to pull a Raul Labrador and release the proper toplines, despite their utter - almost extreme - suckitude. Rep. Judy Biggert leads Harper by a 55-29 margin. The most ridonc thing is that Biggert felt compelled to put out her own, not-exactly-dueling internal in response. I say that because the numbers in Biggert's survey (taken by American Viewpoint) show her up 61-28. This was really not a well-managed move by the Harper campaign.
  • KY-06: Republican Andy Barr, formerly a top legal aide to disgraced former Gov. Ernie Fletcher, is coming under fire for his shoddy handling of a response to a government records request under the state's equivalent to the Freedom of Information Act when he worked for Fletcher. In a 2007 report, then-AG Greg Stumbo (a Dem) said that Barr's failure to produce records on account of their alleged non-existence meant that he was responsible for "records mismanagement." However, Stumbo's office did not determine that Barr had actually violated the state open records law.
  • LA-02: The DCCC added state Rep. Cedric Richmond to its Red to Blue program on Friday. This tells me two things: First, the D-Trip doesn't think much of Richmond's primary challenger, fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta. Second, DC Dems are concerned enough about Rep. Joe Cao's staying power that they're getting involved in a reasonably contested primary, something they have largely avoided this cycle. Now in fairness, Louisiana has a very late primary - August 28th - with an absurdly late runoff on October 2nd. So I can understand wanting to avoid a pressured one-month campaign. Still, this suggests to me that this race is not the "gimme" we might have once imagined.
  • NY-01: Stuck behind Newsday's paywall is a story which says that GOPer Christopher Cox has filed a lawsuit seeking to invalidate fellow Republican Randy Altschuler's ballot petitions. This is exactly the kind of war that Democrats in New York have been hoping for. I can't wait to read more about it. And don't forget that there's a third candidate in the race, George Demos, who is being publicly slammed for alleged ethical lapses while he was an SEC attorney by a former supporter, John Catsimatidis. You may recall that Cox is engaged to Catsimatidis's daughter, which explains the old man's turnabout.
  • NY-15: You've probably already seen this, but Barack Obama said in an interview with CBS News that Charlie Rangel should "end his career with dignity." Really wonder if the old bull is going to keep fighting this thing.
  • NY-24: Mmm... donuts. The owner of a local donut shop, Michael Sadallah, filed a lawsuit trying to knock Republican Richard Hanna off the Independence Party line. Sadallah, an Independence Party member, has also donated to Rep. Mike Arcuri. Oral arguments are this week - good luck, dude!
  • OK-05: True Some Dude James Lankford just earned the endorsement of third-place finisher (and state Rep.) Mike Thompson, who scored 18% in the first round despite spending $900,000. Lankford took 34% and former state Rep. Kevin Calvey had 33%. Lankford and Calvey face off in an August 24th runoff.
  • Kansas: A rare bit of good news on the voter registration front: Over the last year in Kansas, "Democrats gained 11,260 voters, rising to 460,318; unaffiliated voters increased 38,764 to 490,395, and Republican ranks increased 3,189 to 744,975." Obviously, that's a pretty sizable edge for the GOP, but it's still nice to see Dem gains both in absolute numbers and percentages outstrip the Republicans - especially in such a red state, and especially in a year like this.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/2 (Morning Edition)
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    NY-15
    My guess is that Rangel sits for reelection and then resigns before January 2011, thus allowing for a special election in which a candidate he prefers can take the seat. He's not going to resign to let Powell (or Tasini) take it -- too much history.

    Actually he can back out after winning the primary if he wants to...
    While it is too late the take his name off the ballot there is a loophole in NYS election law that is commonly used to remove names from the ballot and replace candidates.

    All that has to happen is for Rangel to get and accept a judicial nomination which is given out by county party conventions in September after the primary.

    The common practice is to nominate candidates for judicial office he has zero chance to win. So the Dems could nominate Rangel (or even a minor 3rd party like the Working Family Party could do it) to run for a judicial post in some overwhelmingly GOP upstate or LI district.

    Rangel's hand picked vacancy committe would then pick his replacement who would almost be guarenteed to be the next Congressman in this overwhelmingly Dem district.

    I think Rangel is a tough SOB who honestly believes he did nothing wrong. As a result I cant see him backing down or resigning. IMHO he fights it out.

    But if he steps down in this scenario I could see him giving the Congressional seat to David Patterson. Rangel is super close to Basil Patterson David's father and has been feuding with the Powell family for over 40 years!

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    [ Parent ]
    When is/was the deadline to give someone the Working Families line for NY-15?
    Barring Rangel dropping out like he should, I think the ideal solution would be for the Working Families party to hold some sort of Iowa or Minnesota style caucus system, with all voters from the 15th district invited to participate, to choose a progressive alternative to Rangel and then give him the WF ballot line.  I'm not sure how logistically difficult that would be though.

    Craig Schley, running in the Democratic primary, already has the Independence line, maybe he would be a good choice for the WF line as well?  That way you stay out of the Rangel-Powell feud.  

    If he's too much of a moderate, they could back a challenger in the primary in 2012.  


    [ Parent ]
    Highly unlikely anybody other than Rangel gets the WPF line!
    n/t

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    [ Parent ]
    Too bad!
    Even someone like Joyce Johnson, an unknown, but very progressive, would be better than Rangel.

    [ Parent ]
    what an odd loophole
    Has that been done recently for anyone us non-New Yorkers might have heard of?

    The scenario with Paterson you described sounds interesting. But I'd guess he'd just stay in office even without a chairmanship (as long as he's not expelled). After all with his seniority he must have a spacious DC office, a large sycophantic staff waiting on him, a PVI D+41 CD, etc, all hard to give up.


    [ Parent ]
    It happens all the time with the minor fusion parties
    They nominate a placeholder then pick their candidate later. I believe the Working Families Party is doing that right now with their candidate for Gov as they wait for Cuomo to take their line.

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    [ Parent ]
    Interesting. IF Cuomo takes the WFP's line.
    I've read he's not exactly a big fan. And he certainly doesn't need it.

    [ Parent ]
    David Paterson
    I wouldn't be surprised to  see him back out after the primary and have Paterson take his place on the ballot.  

    [ Parent ]
    I would.
    Judge Kaye's report is damning enough.

    [ Parent ]
    Franking
    And I thought the mailer that Glenn Nye sent me a few weeks ago was ridiculous:

    Front
    Back


    The back is alright
    But the front is a bit out there.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    the problem is ...
    ... once you decide to have franking, it's hard to draw the line outside explicit "vote for" language.  Same issue as in campaign finance law.

    [ Parent ]
    Franking is as annoying as Junk Mail
    But it's an easy way to get your message out to prospective voters, I don't got a problem with it if it's just mailing like Nye and other Congresscritters. What Alan Greyson is doing sending out DVD is something I have to scratch my head about.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Greyson loves to

    really p.o. hardcore Republicans.

    So far it has worked out nicely for him because the Florida ones lack emotional selfcontrol.  They always take their rage against him to where it causes blowback and their own disqualification.


    [ Parent ]
    That Glenn Nye piece is over the top IMHO!
    They really need to crack down on this. The Greyson DVD and the Glenn Nye piece really are nothing more than government sponsored campaign mailers.

    A simple reform would be to require Congressmen to hand sign any Franked piece of mail. I think if Rep Greyson had to hand sign 73,000 DVD mailers they might think twice about abusing the privilege this way.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Adam Lambert
    may mot have done well working for Jeff Greene, but he did on American Idol. :)

    http://www.dailystab.com/adam-...


    Adam Lambert
    and losing AR-01 Dem candidate David Cook should join forces.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    That Tampa Bay article...
    is damning when it comes to how Greene interacted with his father, though it doesn't explicitly state it.

    Then it was on to Johns Hopkins University, paid for with scholarships, extra jobs taking tickets for sporting events and teaching Hebrew. After answering a phone sales ad in the Palm Beach Post one summer, Greene proved to be enormously successful selling circus tickets. He had his own sales team, spent summers living out of his yellow Datsun 510 and wound up saving $100,000 by the time he finished Johns Hopkins in three years.

    "He really sacrificed a lot in college, especially his social life, because he worked so hard," recalled Smotrich. "His parents had moved down to Florida without him, and it was hard."

    Greene used his savings to enter Harvard business school in 1977, and there too made serious money on the side. While continuing to run his telephone sales operation, he started buying triple-decker apartment buildings near Cambridge to fix up and rent at premium rates.

    His father, Marshall Greene, continued to struggle in Florida, trying various businesses including restocking vending machines in Palm Beach County.

    "He was a proud man, and I know it was very hard on him. He didn't just lose his livelihood, he lost his pride,'' Greene recalled.

    Greene was in his second year at Harvard business school when his dad suffered a massive heart attack and died at 51.

    Greene went to West Palm Beach to help settle the affairs, a memory that still haunts him.

    "His desk at his office was just covered with bills, stacks and stacks of unpaid bills. He was just juggling them, and deciding which ones he had to pay,'' Greene said. "I understand what it is to struggle. I understand what it is to lose everything."

    A commenter noted the disconnect.

    The story about Jeff's Father dying and Jeff coming home to settle his affairs to find his father was juggling his debts obviously behind and in need of assistance.

    The article doesn't give me a proper timeline but, my reading is that Jeff had six figure amounts of cash, was paying his way through Harvard, investing in real estate and letting his family stay impoverished. I am sure Mr Greene has his defenses available that most likely will come from "my dad was too proud to ask". My question then would be was Jeff Greene too distanced to know or understand? Whatever the answer, I believe that this not taking care of his own family directly realates (sic) to how Mr Greene would be as Senator.

    When you have money and your parents are deeply in debt what you do for them says the most about your character.

    Imagine Greene's empathy for constituents than ask is this who we want for senate?

    Neither possibility looks that good for Greene.  Either he was estranged enough from his dad that he didn't even know about his father's financial problems, or he did know, and didn't give a shit.


    [ Parent ]
    So it's his fault his father didn't declare bankruptcy?
    He may have had a moral obligation to help his father, but he certainly had no obligation to support his father's creditors.

    [ Parent ]
    Being estranged from one's father is negative politically?
    Seriously, aren't you reaching a bit?  I have no idea what my father's personal financial situation is.  He was a lifelong farmer and a very proud and private man.  I love him very much and talk to him weekly.

    If upon my father's passing, he is found to have been in dire financial straits, I shall hope the world does not judge me poorly becuase of it.

    I won't say what I think of you personally for posting this.  I find your reasoning very...troubling, shall we say.


    [ Parent ]
    :-|
    You seem... touchy today.

    I didn't say being estranged in and of itself was bad politically.  I said estranged enough to the point where he was doing quite well and his father was drowning in debt.  Now, I come from a culture where filial piety reigns supreme, and it is the child's duty to look out for their parents, whether they want to or not.  So yes, it's a bit jarring for me to read about someone with much more than enough spending cash to go around having a father who passed away with massive debt.  It just ain't right.  But like I said, that pales in comparison to the other situation, which I hope it's not.

    And yes, this is a valid concern when someone's running for a statewide office.  If someone is that disconnected from his own parents through no fault of their own, will it not reflect how he treats his constituents?  If you think of me less for stating that, so be it.


    [ Parent ]
    Not really
    Its like saying someone who has been divorced is less likely to govern based on principle because they couldn't uphold the principles of marriage.

    I think projecting your cultrual values on someone when you don't know the situation is kind of wrong.

    What would you think of him if he was close to his father but his father lied to him?  You didn't seem to lay out that as a possible scenario...


    [ Parent ]
    But...
    divorce is very much an issue, like it or not, that does get discussed.  Rudy Giuliani's divorces were discussed more than a little on a lot of blogs, both on the left and right.  I seem to remember multiple conversations on this and other left-leaning blogs as to how his divorces would affect him with social conservatives.  Same thing with Newt Gingrich every time he starts making waves about possibly running for President.

    Now you may say that doesn't fall under the specific category of actual governance, but just as tabloid fodder that may or may not turn off some in the Religious Right crowd.  OK.  But then we also had John McCain himself, and the divorces he went through were very much talked about in terms of how lousy he'd be as President, because look at how he treated his former wife when she was in the hospital, and so how could you trust him, etc., etc.  Like it or not, it WAS discussed in terms of trust in his governing abilities.

    I think projecting your cultrual values on someone when you don't know the situation is kind of wrong.

    Um, we almost NEVER know the full situation.  But we have to still make decisions based on what we do know at the time.  It's a test of incomplete information.  Then later on, some dirt comes out on a certain politician we trusted (Edwards, Massa, etc.), and much hand-wringing ensues.  And I'm sure there's some politician almost every liberal on this board is supporting right now in some 2010 election, who will turn out to have a major scandal and leave office in great shame, possibly with criminal charges attached, by 2020.  It happens.  But without knowing that dirt in the present day, we go about supporting this person, perhaps blindly so.  In the absence of complete information, we have to make a judgment call based on what we do know, and yes, using our values as a prism through which we view it is, well, human nature.

    The cultural values I grew up with about fairness, equality, and looking out for those less fortunate, is what made me a Democrat in the first place.  To separate that out is just not possible, because that would, in essence, deny what makes you, you.

    As for Greene, unless he clarifies further, we'll probably never know the real story.  And so we're back to dealing with incomplete information.  Something seems a bit off in that story, to me.  Yes, if his father simply lied to him out of pride or whatever, that makes him a more sympathetic figure.  But based on the incomplete information we do know, I just have a feeling that that is not the case.  If he were really that close, then how come nobody else in the family, or friends or neighbors, said a word to him about his dad's financial situation, knowing he was making quite a bit of money in real estate?  I'm sorry, I just don't find that very plausible.


    [ Parent ]
    Well, Sheheen dropped from 40 to 35, so...
    ...it's a wash.

    Tough hill for Sheheen to climb.  He's going to have to put together a really great campaign plan, raise the money to execute it, and hope he catches fire in October.  Obviously he has to make his race isolated from all else in this anti-Democratic environment and find some way to disqualify Haley with voters.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    if it's true that
    Haley has strong ties to Sanford, there could be an opening. Mark Sanford was making SC the butt of national jokes before it was cool, a year before anyone knew the name Alvin Greene. Surely his approval ratings must be in the gutter.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah she has ties to Sanford
    Problem is her appeal can gloss over that because of her age, gender and ethnicity. Sad but true.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Ties To Sanford
    In my opinion are a hollow argument to use against her. Just because she's tied to an adulterer doesn't mean she herself is one, as her primary opponents discovered a while back. The only thing that ties her to Sanford is ideology and policy direction, which the average South Carolinian, fiscal conservatives they are, agree with.

    [ Parent ]
    No you are wrong
    They are tied together, not just in terms of ideologically. She is known to be friends with the Sanford's and a political ally and would not have won the nomination without their help.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    And those ideological ties
    were not all a positive either -- before we knew he was the latest "Governor Happy Pants," he had battles with the Chamber of Commerce, business leaders in SC, Republicans in the legislature, etc. -- his decision to turn down stimulus money was far from popular, and there were a lot of conservatives who did not like him.

    [ Parent ]
    Yup, that's what "ties to Sanford" REALLY means, it's not about the affair......
    Sanford was disliked in the legislature for years, and the reasons for that conflict are what Sheheen needs to exploit.

    Problem is, do voters care about that?  Is it too insidery?

    But you gotta try something, and it has to be something that disqualifies Haley in particular since a majority of voters otherwise will like the "R" next to her name.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Hard to fathom how someone with so much buzz, esp. in this cycle, loses
    Unless Nikki Haley becomes a gaffe-machine, which strikes me as awfully unlikely, I imagine she prevails pretty comfortably. Don't get me wrong, Sheheen is a decent nominee, but Haley's such a rising star and she excites the GOP base so much, I can't imagine her losing.

    For now, I'm thinking...

    GOP - 45%
    Democrat - 32%
    Independent - 23%

    Haley - 90/13/62 = 59%
    Sheheen - 10/87/38 = 41%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    Anyone else find it odd
    With Obama's trip to Georgia for the disabled veterans convention, there was no mention opf Max Cleland.  He is still alive, right?

    That dude got so hosed in 2002 I figured he'd be front and center.  When I think georgia + disabled + veteran, the name Max Cleland comes to mind first and foremost.


    Alive yes
    As for him not being mention can't say why. Sad since the man lost his legs in Vietnam and hot hosed because of shady and false advertising by Saxby Chambliss. Maybe he couldn't attend, I don't know. Weird though.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Legs and an arm
    I remember an article in Time, I think it was actually a pictorial, and it was s hort article and showed him as he was getting dressed in the morning.  It is weird, I don't know the guy, but it was like watching someone you know.  It was a quick blurb of an article (photos of the Year or something) and the picture and short blurb just really hit me in the gut.

    [ Parent ]
    He's working for the Administration
    He has some sort of senior job (I believe "Secretary") with the American Battle Monuments Commission  

    [ Parent ]
    I know people in the State Dept. certainly cant be political
    But what about other departments?  And I have no idea what dept that job falls under, their website doesn't make it clear and I dont feel like spending time on that.

    [ Parent ]
    It's
    really just ceremonial I believe. I do not think he actually has to work much.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    KY-Sen poll from SurveyUSA
    The latest SurveyUSA poll on this race finds it essentially unchanged from the last time they polled this race 2 months ago.

    Rand Paul (R): 51%
    Jack Conway (D): 43%
    Undecided: 5%
    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    You've got 25% of Kentucky Democrats who say they'll cross over to vote for Paul instead of Conway.  Probably all Mongiardo supporters from the primary.  We're talking conservative Democrats here.  32% of moderates say they're voting for Paul... but WTF is up with 15% of LIBERALS saying they'll also vote for Paul??

    And SurveyUSA's funky numbers among youth continues, as it shows the under-34 crowd supporting Paul by a 48%-45% margin.  Though... including people up to the age of 34 is going to make it more Republican, given how they grew up in the Reagan years.  (And yes, this is only 17% of the sample, so we're also talking about a 10% margin of error.  Take all this with a grain of salt.)

    You guys gonna write a front-page post about this latest poll?


    Under 34?
    To be under 34, you need to be no older than 33, which I currently am.  Saying I grew up during the Reagan years as a source for more Republican skewing isn't that accurate.  

    I was born in 1977, have no recollection of reagan getting elected or doing anything remotely to be honest.  And I'm the oldest one can be in the under 34 segment.  I can't imagine 30 year olds can even remember Reagan being president to be honest.


    [ Parent ]
    I do.
    And I'm 30.  My dad volunteered for the Reagan campaigns in California.  I definitely remember who he was, and had a very good image of him growing up.  I suspect I'm not the only kid who grew up in the 80s who learned from his parents how Reagan was the bestest guy in the whole wide world.  :-\  First impressions, they matter.  Only when I got to high school and learned some of the not-so-nice stuff he did, did my opinion of him start to shift.

    And per this Gallup poll on ages (it's one year old, so shift the ages up by 1), there is a noticeable difference between the percentages of people 19-27 who consider themselves Republican (all below 22%), versus those who are 29-34 (all above 22%).

    So yes, people who are in their early 30s right now are, overall, several percentage points more Republican than those in their 20s.


    [ Parent ]
    Funny.
    My parents are conservatives, and I was born in California to boot, yet I heard nothing from them on Reagan or even Bush 41. My first political memory was my dad saying Ross Perot was "bad" in late 1992, and I was already 9.

    My blog
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    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    Wasn't arguing the conclusion
    Of course younger people are more Democratic because younger people are often mroe liberal.  What I was saying is that it wasn't due to Reagan.

    Saying that people in their 30's are more Republican than those in their 20's DUE TO REAGAN is unsupportable, regardless of pretty graphs.  I could use the same graph to say those in their 70's and 80's are more Republican than those in their 60's because they grew up during FDR.  What sense would that conclusion make?

    Your personal views skew your analysis.  The fact that your parents volunteered for Reagan in California skewed your view of others from the same time as well.


    [ Parent ]
    Aren't libertarians more young than average too?
    I don't know the sub-component in KY, and of course, that would be subject to a huge MoE.

    But based on the conventional wisdom (AFAIK) about young voters and libertarians, heavier Paul support among that demographic is reasonable.


    [ Parent ]
    Sigh...
    let me be more clear.  I think it's one of many factors.  It's been pointed out here and elsewhere that people who turned 18 during the Reagan years were MUCH more Republican on the whole than before or after, and the graph does indeed show that for people in that 38-46 age range, due to his overall popularity when he was President.  You see that fade when he left office, but that doesn't mean his influence suddenly disappeared completely.  It of course declines, but I suspect there's some residual influence left that decreases year by year.  After two more presidential elections, and especially after a change in party in the White House, then yeah, that influence pretty much drops to zero.  I just wouldn't declare it's zero before that time.

    You can't tell me that kids growing up in middle school and high school in the Reagan years, where aside from a short dip due to Iran-Contra, his approval rating was at 50% or above his whole second term, wouldn't have been at least somewhat influenced by that, simply from growing up in that environment.

    And others have written about how those that grew up under FDR's New Deal did lean quite Democratic for a long time.  The problem with using that chart now?  Well... see... the population of those people has decreased by quite a bit due to... well... older people dying.  Those Gallup numbers for old people are not representative of how that age group voted decades ago when most were still alive.  So no, you cannot use that graph to make that claim.  (We could say that those who opposed FDR have done a good job of staying alive.  I'll leave it to others to speculate as to why.)  People in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, who are still mostly alive, yes, you can extrapolate with much greater confidence about them.

    When you say my personal views skew my analysis, I could say the same about you.  Just because you didn't hear about Reagan growing up doesn't mean other kids didn't.  And when you make a blanket statement that 30-year-olds can't possibly remember Reagan, well, I'm that contradiction.

    Again, I'm not saying Reagan was responsible for them being more Republican.  I'm sorry if I wasn't clear on that point.  I'm saying I believe he still had some residual influence, and yes, I'm using my own upbringing to bear on this, because I doubt, and I don't think you're making the counterargument, that I'm the ONLY kid in America who grew up like that.


    But getting back to the MAIN point I was making, that SurveyUSA includes people up to 34 in that age group, is going to make that age group more Republican overall than if you cut it off at, say, any age in the late 20s.


    [ Parent ]
    Keep in mind
    In ytour original post, you did say they were more Republican because they had grown up during he Reagan years.  Your quote not mine.

    Also, no one under the age of 34 was in high school during the Reagan years.  That would be age 11 at the oldest during the Reagan years.  

    Well, maybe Doogie Howser, but I have no idea what his political leanings are.


    [ Parent ]
    Argh.
    Meant to say elementary and middle school, not middle and high school.  At least in my elementary school, we had a very basic U.S. history segment where we at least learned some of the more important Presidents way back in 3rd grade, and then a fuller lesson plan on U.S. history in 5th grade.  Part of that included knowing who the current President was.  And since 3rd grade teachers weren't supposed to inject politics, we only learned a very cookie-cutter version of what Reagan was, and none of the bad stuff (like Iran-Contra).

    [ Parent ]
    I turned 18 during Reagan's 2nd term and was an active College Republican myself, and I can say...
    ...that looking back, the conservative influence of Reagan definitely infected my early politics.  It was just "in" to support Reagan.  And I'm Indian-American, a man of color, and a religious minority to boot......although I was born and raised in Iowa, so my surroundings were all-white.

    BUT I'm 42, not in my 30s.  I'm sure you folks in your 30s have fewer political memories of the 80s than I do.  My memories of the 70s are very limited.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Makes me think the LBGT culture war
    Will help solidify them into our fold, particularly when gay marriage becomes more of a national issue and we're at the point of debating it in a serious manner with there being more than maybe 10 Senators being publicly being in favor of it.  The Democrats got to lead on the issue first if they want the kiddies to follow.

    And with it being a Presidential campaign issue, and it'll be a big one at that once it's time, so we can do serious damage with the youngest voting generation as they're already low information voters so they dont need to know much about the candidates or anything like that; they'll view it as voting for their friend Matt or the couple next door Shirley and Barb.  I really think it could be that simple in a presidential.

    Now tell the Democrat who wants to cost themselves tons of older voters to try to bank on a group of people who dont vote.  I spose that means though we're doing this early enough that these older voters haven't passed on yet, though!  (Come on Hillary 2016, just one last flip-flop.)


    [ Parent ]
    Paul is too divisive to pull 15% of liberals
    Only a moderate Republican could do that and moderate Paul is not. The margin of error is 4.2%, so I think without skewing, it's probably Paul 49%, Conway 45%. This one is going to be close.

    24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

    [ Parent ]
    I fear 2004 again
    Conway shockingly leads most of the night yet Paul takes it 51-49.

    [ Parent ]
    I have a bad feeling
    that as much of a jerk as Mongiardo can be, Kentucky Democrats made a poor choice in the primary.  It's just extremely hard to see a liberal candidate like Conway winning in such a republican bastion in a year like this.  Those Mongiardo democrats would've supported their man, and you have to figure that because of Paul's wackiness, Conway's base would've fallen in line real quick.

    This could be a case of primary fail come November.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    In pre-primary ballot tests
    He polled far worse than Conway every time.

    [ Parent ]
    Correct
    He would be trailing by a much larger margin right now. I guarantee you that.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    I posted this yesterday in reply to General Hospital and will post it again now
    Disagree
    It is not about being conservative or not, everyone who knows Mongiardo hates him. Seriously he is a dick. He is generally not a good campaigner or speaker and while he might have been conservative enough to rally some conservadems I know of many who would have stayed home just like progressives. He does not have many political friends in the legislator or anywhere for that matter. Plus Dr. Dan is serving under Beshear who is not Mr. Popularity right now. Trust me we are much better off with Conway. I am not saying the fact Conway is more liberal than the average Kentuckian is not hurting him and if moderate to conservative Critz Lucilladen would have ran she would have been perfect. She would rally conservadems and progressives alike. I honestly think Mongiardo would be trailing by a larger margin than Conway right now, I have no doubt of it. He is just that unpopular. However I can say with confidence that if you guys had gone with Grayson he would be leading by 16 not 8 right now. If Paul keeps his mouth shut he wins, if he keeps doing what he did then it gets competitive.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    He
    Certainly has a lot of supporters for someone who is hated by everyone.  

    Certainly has been elected quit e afew times to decent roles for someone is not a good campaigner.

    Where was the Democratic party in Kentucky before his surprising run in 2004?  I believe that Ernie Fletcher had jsut defeated Ben Chandler 55-45 in 2003.  Dems had just 1 congressional district and today we have 2 (whopping change I know).  In 2004, Mongiardo received 49.3% of the vote while GWB received 59.6%

    Yeah, he sounds like a hated, unelectable, terrible campaigner.  At least you're not biased.  

    I'm sure having Senator Rand Paul is much better than Senator Dan Mongiardo....I jsut wish I knew why people feel this way.


    [ Parent ]
    You
    do not know what you are talking about. You really do not. Mongiardo's surprisingly close result in 04 had nothing to do with him but rather the incumbent. Do you remember some of the things Bunning said? Bunning ran one of the worst campaigns I have ever seen. On paper it does look like a great performance from Mongiardo but really it was just to be expected do to the campaigning Bunning ran. He did not do a bad job but it was nothing special on his part. BTW, I gave 250 bucks to him during his 04 run and I even volunteered a bit over in Louisville for him, so yeah I am obviously really biased and would never want to see him elected to the Senate.  A lot has changed since 2004, Beshear is anything but popular now, and guess who his second in command is? He made a, I suppose somewhat truthful, gaffe regarding race and Obama in which he called the electorate racist. To win Kentucky you have to do well in Louisville and not do horribly in the rest of the state and I promise you had Mongiardo won the nomination you would see much more Conway supporters staying home than Mongiardo supporters who are going to stay home. Conway's base is in Louisville, and depressed turnout in Louisville is not what you need. What I am trying to say also that Mongiardo is toxic with independents and progressives and even some conservadems. I am not and would never argue that Conway is a better candidate because he is more liberal, far from it, I think that is what is holding him down now. But a Conway-Paul match is between a tossup and lean R while a  Mongiardo-Paul match is between lean and likely R. Your assertion that I would rather see Paul in the Senate than Mongiardo is just childish. I have NO desire to see Paul in the Senate at all and had Mongiardo won the primary I would be rooting for him just as much as I am rooting for Conway. If he was such a good campaigner as you claim explain how he went from being the overwhelming frontrunner to losing.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    I personally dont think he'll overcome the national climate
    Conway can take this shit to 2016.   Get Hillary on the ballot, she'll do much better in KY than Obama or Kerry did.

    Here's a question, how come Conway can run up huge totals in Jefferson county but Obama only won by 12% here.  Is that all purely home-town advantage?


    [ Parent ]
    I suspect KY may be the most cost-effective investment
    the DSCC can make.

    Given the narrative Reid has made against Angle, could a little extra money could do the same for Conway against Paul?

    I'd guess this would be even more cost-effective than even NH, as Ayotte (so far) is no Angle.


    [ Parent ]
    I
    expect Conway to give more money to his campaign than he already has. He has a family with a lot of old money. If Conway has sufficient funds he can make the race about Paul, but if Paul keeps his mouth shuts and only appears on friendly press he should win but narrowly. It all comes down to how Conway campaigns and how Kentuckians feel about having a liberal dem or a nutcase. Remember this state elected Bunning, twice (!).  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Crosstabs
    should never be trusted with any pollster and especially not with SUSA.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Your first point is 100% correct, but SUSA is no worse than others......
    SUSA gets a bad rap for its crosstabs simply because it does a lot of polls and reveals the crosstabs for all of them, while we don't get that information so easily from anyone else.

    There's nothing about SUSA's crosstabs that are worse than anyone else's, and in fact in my examination they're actually more credible than Rasmussen's crosstabs (which are always behind a subscriber wall).

    But your main point is the important one, that crosstabs are unreliable.

    The turnout model, however, is fair game, although even then SUSA is transparent about refusing to weight, and just accepting whatever turnout model their likely voter screen produces.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Gotta remember that 'liberal'
    in the popular sense is a relative to your locale.  What's 'liberal' or even 'moderate' to me in Massachusetts is often 'ultraliberal' south of the Mason-Dixon line and Ohio River.  What's deemed 'conservative' here around Boston would cause heart attacks to good ol' boys in Alabama.

    As for the Reagan The Savior thing, it helps to remember that the populations of the Deep South and the Northeast+West Coasts have been culturally about a generation or slightly more apart on average during our lifetimes.

    Since the early 90s that distance has been diminishing, though.  The youngest adults (GenX and GenY) in the South have tried to do as much to close the distance as they can, the middle aged are upset at it, and the oldest generation is freaking out.


    [ Parent ]
    I was considered a conservative
    in all my Justice and Peace Studies classes.

    [ Parent ]
    I could see under 34 year olds supporting Paul
    Where I live it was mainly this generation that would die for the Paul's.  Bleh.

    [ Parent ]
    A HORRIBLE poll, Just HORRIBLE
    NC-11

    Shuler-45
    Miller-44

    Ugh, Ugh, Ugh

    http://www.nccivitas.org/media...

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    That
    link does not appear to work. Try this one.

    http://www.nccivitas.org/media...

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    [ Parent ]
    I'd like to beieve this is true
    And it is SurveyUSA, but Miller's got like zero money. I don't know how he could be polling this high.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes but this kind of poll will help him raise money fast
    Nothing helps fundraising more than people believing you got a really good shot at winning. If this poll is true Miller can use it to help him raise money.

    The poll basically says more about how people in the district feel about Shuler & Dems than about Miller.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    This is true
    I figure if "This Other Guy" was the GOP candidate, he'd probably be pretty solid in polling right now too. I just hope that Miller can capitalize on this better than Ellmers did after the Etheridge fiasco.

    [ Parent ]
    Well
    I'm pretty sure people don't vote based on who has more money.  

    [ Parent ]
    If they do then god help us
    Although I do wonder what a world of billionaire legislators would be like.  I assume CNBC is filming a special about it right now :-)

    [ Parent ]
    I wouldn't worry
    One, its a poll and I don't believe it.

    Two, Schuler is the absolute best (and only) candidate we have for this district.  If he loses, we did our best and lost.  I'm far more worried about swingier districts where we haven't put our best candidate/campaign forward and might lose.


    [ Parent ]
    He must be channelling the
    Mumpower!  GGGRRRARARARGGGGGHHHH!!!

    [ Parent ]

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