What I Find Shocking

Is Kitzhaber is ahead of Dudley by only 5 points in Portland. And Wyden, who for an Oregon Democrat usually sweeps rural Oregon, is 6 points behind Huffman and only garnering 39% of the rest of Oregon vote.

---

by: Sheamus O'Range @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 10:14:55 AM UTC

Heavy sigh.

I expect the Portland numbers for Kitz have some upside; a poll done by CD about a month ago found Kitz with solid leads in CDs 1 and 3. It really depends on how Portland is sampled by the pollster; get too many disgruntled hippies for Bradbury in the random Democratic sample and it gets skewed. Still, it's fair to say that if Kitz underperforms in Portland, he's done. At the moment, though, my biggest worry is Eugene; CD4 already shows a Dudley edge, and most of the liberal voters in this college town are exactly the type of younger voters and idealistic liberal pseudo-activist purists who could constitute a major enthusiasm gap that pushes Dudley over the top.

As for Wyden, well, the OR media has been covering his tilting-at-windmills HCR efforts for years when the GOP controlled Congress, so his near-total invisibility when it actually came time to do HCR with a Democratic majority hasn't gone unnoticed, methinks. He probably also lost the rural vote simply due to the usual Fox news bullshit, plus the fact that eastern Oregon BFF Gordon Smith was defeated after Wyden didn't stump for him, so there's probably some resentment there as well. Regardless, it's pretty unlikely that he loses against a nobody like Huffman, but this certainly won't be 2004 all over again, and at this point I might even be concerned if the OR GOP had anybody worthwhile to run against him.  

---

by: notanothersonofabush @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 11:20:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry

 But there is no way I will trust any poll that shows a Democrat leading in Portland by only 5 points. Even Bill Bradbury, who was crushed in 2002, carried Portland by a nice sized margin.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

---

by: Alibguy @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 22:08:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sharp regression for Oregon this November?

I have no doubt that Wyden will win and by a decent margin. But I can't understand how he isn't crushing Huffman and how a novice like Dudley is right up there with Kitzhaber. This makes me worried about the Schraeder/Bruun matchup. It'd be good to see a non-internal to come out of that district to see if it's mirroring the senate and gubernatorial races.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)

---

by: LennyLiberal @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 10:55:10 AM UTC

I'm not worried about OR-05. Yet.

Most of the problem with Kitz's numbers is in the Portland and Eugene metro areas, neither of which is in the 5th. There's enough rightward-leaning rural territory there (especially Polk, Tillamook, and exburban Clackamas and Marion counties) that Bruun will be able to pull some decent numbers when you consider that Lake Oswego, Wilsonville, and especially West Linn are hardly fertile Dem territory to begin with. Schrader needs to pull as many rural votes as possible (which he can, esp. in Clackamas, Marion and Tillamook; Polk is probably a lost cause, IMO), and run up his margins with big victories in Corvallis and metro Salem. Still, if the OSU students aren't there for him in appreciable numbers (which is likely) he may have more trouble than he should. I'd call the race Lean D right now; if Hooley could hold this district in 2002, Schrader should be able to do so now.

In a way it's too bad Washington grabbed that extra Northwestern Congressional seat away from Oregon. On one hand, it means that we almost certainly get a Democratic seat in the eastern Seattle suburbs to split the two incompatible constituencies of the current WA-08; on the other, adding a district to Oregon would give them an excuse to redraw this trainwreck of a district (and the 4th, for that matter) once and for all.  

---

by: notanothersonofabush @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 11:31:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which confirms Schrader's fit for the district

from his website

He understands its agricultural heritage: he raised organic crops on Canby's historic Three Rivers Farm, where Kurt and his wife Martha raised 5 children. Kurt is also a small businessman and veterinarian, who built his veterinary clinic in Oregon City from scratch.

rural votes are needed -- despite the presence of West Linn and "F"ake Oswego, OR-05 is (in my personal estimation, no data) the most religious wingnut-friendly district in the state.

Do we actually know that WA and not OR will get that "extra" NW Congressional seat?

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 15:02:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

final counts will be availible at the end of the year

http://2010.census.gov/2010cen...

According to the estimates of July 2009, Washington just barely got an extra seat and Oregon just missed getting one.  However, it's fully possible that both will get a seat, or neither.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

---

by: Marcus @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 15:54:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Both would be pretty awesome,

and I note looking at the Take 10 data that both WA and OR had much higher participation rates than some of the other projected gainers, such as AZ and TX; if TX especially only picks up 2 or 3 seats instead of 4, the extra seat could well go to Oregon. Also if the Midwest loses out worse than expected, esp. if the seat that Missouri is now supposed to keep ends up being lost anyway. Considering that in my experience half of Missouri moved to Oregon and didn't bother to switch their license plates, this would actually make sense.  

---

by: notanothersonofabush @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 20:12:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hrm, methinks...

Independent - 37%
Democrat - 34%
GOP - 29%

Kitzhaber - 48/87/10 = 51%
Dudley - 52/13/90 = 49%

Wyden - 62/93/17 = 60%
Huffman - 38/7/83 = 40%

OR-Gov is tight, I suspect a legit "toss-up," but I do think Kitzhaber barely pulls it off in the end. In fact, I think Oregon's one of the few toss-ups that ultimately swings Democrat.

OR-Sen, on the other hand, shouldn't be a problem. In the sense that he's not a Tea Party loon, Huffman isn't a terrible candidate, but I think Wyden only loses if Murray, Feingold, and Boxer all go down as well. I suspect he's in about the same territory as Dick Blumenthal; that is, Huffman would be the 52nd or 53rd Republican.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 13:07:44 PM UTC

but I think Wyden only loses if Murray, Feingold, and Boxer all go down as well

Which no one believes will happen so Wyden will be OK. As for OR-Gov I agree with your assessment. I also think Kitz problem has been that Dudley has been on TV for while and Kitz hasn't. Glad that's changing as you just saw.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

---

by: Daylin Bradley-Byak @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 14:15:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even if all three of those went down

Which they won't, Wyden still won't lose.

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:34:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Seconded.

Going from 63% of the vote carrying all but 3 counties to losing doesn't happen barring a major scandal, and Wyden is too good of a politician for it to happen to him. He's definitely proven he can take care of himself.

Even if Boxer, Feingold, Murray all went down (and they would go down in that order, IMO), Wyden will be fine. Hell, even if any of this were even remotely likely, I'd probably be more worried about Blumenthal somehow Coakleying up a sure thing in CT than about Wyden vs. Huffman.

The only Oregon Republican who can beat Ron Wyden is Gordon Smith, and not even Gordon Smith could beat Ron Wyden at a time when the state was a whole lot more Republican than it is now.  

---

by: notanothersonofabush @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 20:19:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is there a major 3rd party candidate?

With "Other" getting 7% and 9% in the poll, is there a single 3rd party candidate getting these votes or is it a mish-mash of voters.

At least this poll seems legit.  Both guys would seem to be well known.  I'm kind of sick of seeing polls with 20% undecided, especially the ones in CA.

---

by: rdw72777 @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:12:58 PM UTC

One of the polls included 7% for a "progressive party" candidate

and it's uncertain whether that party will be certified, at least in time for the '10 election.

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:20:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very interesting

How are 3rd party candidates in Oregon supported normally in close elections (do they keep their votes or do they flee to major parties).

We've seen so many ntimes in the past where 3rd party candidates come nowhere close to their polling numbers on election day (NJ 2009 the most recent).

If the "Other" is a singular candidate for the most part, we really need to look at that number and guesstimate which ,ajor party candidate those voters might migrate to as a close election approaches.

---

by: rdw72777 @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:23:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the Nader vote in '00 was non-trivial

and Gore barely won the state that year.

Fortunately for Kitz, it seems unlikely that the Progressive Party of Oregon will be certified, ref http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

The Progressive Party gained part of what it needs to keep its ballot status this year when Nader won just over 1 percent of the vote in Oregon in 2008. The party also needs to have at least 1,380 registrants by Aug. 4. That's one-tenth of 1 percent of those who voted in the last race for governor.

As of Thursday, 274 voters were registered with the party, according to the secretary of state's office.

The big roadblock to the Progressive Party is the same Bill Bradbury who lost in the primary to Kitzhaber.

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:30:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting law

That is an insanely low number of registrants for any party really, isn't it?  I wonder if we'll see  asurge of party registrants this weekend.  If the candidate has any support at all, and I mean any, 1,380 wouldn't be hard.

I'm from NY, where the number of 3rd parties is bigger and candidates run on multiple lines, so that situation is more fluid.  

Currently live in PA where 3rd parties seem to have almost no infrastructure these days so I'm unfamiliar with 3rd party registration here, even anecdotally.

---

by: rdw72777 @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:35:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Depends on the person judging the signatures

more from the article:

"Mr. Bradbury has been very antagonistic to the point of being offensive to the rights of third-party candidates," said Nader, who charged that Bradbury used his powers as secretary of state to unfairly deny him a place on the ballot in 2004.

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:37:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is it Party registrants or signatures

In PA, party registration can be done online I think, or at the DMV.  If its signatures, I agree, a different ball of wax for sure.

---

by: rdw72777 @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:39:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's signatures, n/t

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:41:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Addition

The current OR Secretary of State is Kate Brown, who AFAIK will be equally tough on the Progressive Party (nee Peace Party) of Oregon.

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:40:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does the Oregon Gov have power

How powerful is the Governor of Oregon?  What is the makeup of the state houses?  

While I'm sure its not like Mass where the Gov can only do so much (since the state hosues have veto over-ride power for Dems), I'm wondering how big of a loss it really would be if Dudley won?

---

by: rdw72777 @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:14:40 PM UTC

The state legislature is part time

despite it's listing otherwise in Wikipedia. They're paid like 20k/yr + per diem. Both houses are controlled by Ds, and it should remain that way (IMO) through this election.

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:24:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmmm given that info

I guess I'm a little less concerned about oregon than some other Gov seats.  Certainly it has to be WAY down the priority list.

TX, FL, PA, CA all outrank Oregon for sure.  I'm even thinking Minnesota and a few others do as well.

I don't want to lose any really, but Oregon might not be the worst race to lsoe this cycle if I had to pick one.

---

by: rdw72777 @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:30:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

While I tend to agree with some of your rankings of importance

"part-time" to me means the Gov has more power.

So I think objectively, Oregon has to outrank states of similar size in importance.

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:33:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well does part-time mean defers to governor

He can't enact legislation on his own can he?  At the end of the day, the part time thing would mean that if there is any difference of opinion, things would move even slower.  So if Dems have the houses and Repubs have the Guv, then I'm still thinking its less important because thing swould move more slowly and be less liekly to get Dudley his way.

But, Oregon/Minnesota/Tennessee, ehh all 2nd tier to me.  

---

by: rdw72777 @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 17:38:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Part time/full time don't mean much in regards to legislative power

what matters is how the state constitution divides power; most Southern states, for example, have weak executive branches.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 23:53:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does the governor have a seat at the redistricting table?

If so, this is a big race should Oregon pick up a seat. Gov. Dudley would probably insist on new reddish 6th in the Portland exurbs in exchange for shoring up Schrader's 5th and Defazio's 4th, while Gov. Kitzhaber would probably weaken Wu and Blumenauer slightly to create a D-leaning 6th in the suburbs.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

---

by: MassGOP @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 18:32:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, he does.

More info here. It's pretty much the same as any other non-committee state: Leg draws the map, Gov approves it.

I don't know about weakening Wu because he's already such a useless incumbent; actually, if I were Dudley, I'd redraw the 1st to dispose of him entirely by putting in Wilsonville/West Linn/Lake Oswego, taking out most of Portland, Tigard, and all of Beaverton, gerrymandering out the Hispanic parts of Tualatin and Hillsboro, and leaving Yamhill County completely untouched. The new district could take Columbia County and the rest of exburban Portland...hmm. Might have to play with Dave's app sometime soon. OR may be the only state I've actually bothered to post, but it's an infinitely fun state for me to mess with because I know it so well.  

---

by: notanothersonofabush @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 20:34:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FWIW, Red State tried a redistricting of OR

in both 5 and 6 seat scenarios, ref http://www.redstate.com/scarlo...

The best they could do is 2 R districts out of 5

(and in a 6 seat scenario, 2 R districts + 1 swing district)

So as much as I'd hate to see a R gov in this state, I can't see how it would make a difference of more than +/- 1 seat. But then again, I haven't been able to get Dave's app working in Linux, even with Moonlight (the open source version of Silverlight).

---

by: tietack @ Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 21:30:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I love that the first comment that redistricting got was

Wow, that must have been a ton of research, we should focus more on building our majorities, you have too much time on your hands.

::face palm::

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 00:54:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

*shudder* I feel dirty just clicking the link

violent shudder

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

---

by: DGM @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 05:22:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]