The IMP Poll

Is garbage. This one is even worse, with a sample size of 87. Ballenger tried to defend it by saying that with Grebner's lists "he knows exactly how each of these people will vote." I'm sorry, but you just can't poll with a sample size under 300. The odds of getting a sample that isn't representative are simply too high.

There was also a Republican half to the poll, with a sample size of 125 or so. It showed Hoekstra in the lead in the low 20s, Snyder at 19 or so, then Cox a point behind him.

---

by: MIJunkie @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 12:51:56 PM UTC

Agree

And on a larger point, I'm increasingly disappointed with these state political sites. The information here and at PoliticsPA and PolitickerNJ is just poorly transmitted.

They have all the downside of a "view from nowhere" that  hamstrings the outdated MSM, with none of the upside, i.e the "craft" of journalism.

---

by: tallsy @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 13:07:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A good PA election site

Is Pa2010.com  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 18:46:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yikes, just when I was about to start my own blog for Minnesota

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 20:59:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

AZ-Governor: Kos Is Wrong

I watched the panel you guys had with Kos, and when AZ-Gov. came up, I was disappointed that was not discussed. The only thing that was said was Kos thinking that the race is winnable. I fail to see the logic of that statement. Since Brewer signed that immigration bill, she's been on fire. She's actually gotten enough political capital to endorse other candidates (i.e. Karen Handel)

It may be the only thing working for her, but it's working. She may not win in a landslide, but she's going to win, unless there's a sex scandal somewhere we don't know about. I only wish Kos elaborated more on his statement.

---

by: Sheamus O'Range @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 13:07:31 PM UTC

yeah, she has enough

political capital with wingnuts. Among average voters, it's there but limited. When that bill was first passed, if I recall correctly Goddard actually surged due to Hispanic support.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 13:35:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP showed Goddard surging with Hispanics while white voters held steady......

If Brewer has surged since then, it has to be from increased white vote share in polling, or from Goddard's Hispanic surge having subsided.

PPP hasn't been back there since their last poll showing a Hispanic surge that propelled Goddard into tie.

I'd love to see credible polling today on the state of that race.  I get the impression from political media reporting that Brewer is clearly ahead, but no numbers.

What's stunning about this is that Brewer really didn't do anything.  The immigration enforcement bill was a creature entirely of the GOP state legislature, and Brewer sat on it for days before signing it.  She just as easily could have been politically skewered from the right for waffling.  But instead she's a wingnut she-ro.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 13:45:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The PPP poll was back in April

There was also an R2K poll in early May that showed Goddard in the lead. Since that time, there have been three Rasmussen polls that have showed Brewer winning, the last two by 18 and 19 points, and one by something called "Behavior Research Center" that showed Brewer with a 20 point lead.

So, worth noting that a lot of the Brewer is killing Goddard meme has been Rasmussen driven

---

by: markhanna @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 13:54:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which always a very important to think to point out!

And is the thing that sets us apart from journalists.

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 21:01:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Am

I crazy in thinking that we will see higher Hispanic turnout in this election than we saw in 2008? I know it's a midterm but this is a BFD and I would assume they will be out in droves to vote out Brewer.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 16:36:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It will be less than 2008, but higher than a normal midterm......

No way Hispanic turnout approaches 2008 levels.  In fact, all demographic groups will have lower turnout than 2008, because it's just always, always, always true that many tens of millions of people of all demographics refuse to vote if the Presidency is not on the ballot.  The turnout issue in the midterms is about what groups cut their losses the least, and our favorable groups are refusing to show in higher numbers than the bad guys' favorable groups.

Regarding Arizona Hispanics, if it really were the case that they turned out at Presidential levels, then Goddard and all Democratic U.S. House incumbents will win.  But that kind of turnout is not realistic.

What IS realistic is that Arizona Hispanics will show up much better than they would without the immigration enforcement law.  But that doesn't mean Goddard and all our incumbents will win.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 17:13:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In Arizona it might

Obama made no effort to organize Hispanics in Arizona because he conceded the state to McCain until the last weekend.  It is likely that 2008 turnout of Hispanics in Arizona was less than in it was in other states where Obama made a better effort.

So since 2008 turnout levels were not as high in Arizona for Hispanics as other states, I think it is not out of the question that Hispanic turnout this year in Arizona is close to those 2008 levels.

---

by: NewMex9999 @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 18:04:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But never before has a mid-term occurred

where a racially targeted bill was passed and said targeted race has been able to vote in a free manner in response to it.

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 21:16:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suppose I should say in this magnitude

Im not some historian of legislation of racial intent as Im sure there are examples I am not aware of and that would make my point logically wrong.

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 21:19:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I get the impression

that 1)Goddard is a very popular Attorney General and
2) Brewer has very bad political instincts and she just got lucky with this one bill.
If the debate shifts from immigration to Arizona's economy Goddard will win. If not then not.  

---

by: lovespolitics @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 13:53:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yeah, Brewer

seems a bit wacky, I think one time she claimed that God had made her governor of Arizona or something. but being that weird doesn't matter when you're flavor of the month.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 14:07:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She certainly claimed some weird god crap

I remember reading it and being the one to post it here.  She is very Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin-esque, but she just hasnt shot herself in the foot quite yet.

---

by: Andrew @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 21:21:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No she's not

She raised taxes early in her tenure, something the other 2 would never do. The only reason you never hear about that is b/c of the immigration law.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 22:36:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Brewer's the new Pete Wilson

as IMO the AZ law will have a CA prop 187 type of effect.

Assuming a close election in '12, I believe that will make AZ lean-D that year, at least in the Presidential race. Might have to wait until '16 and '18 for the effect to flip the Senate seats, however.  

---

by: tietack @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 14:08:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even in 2008

AZ would have been competitive if not for the home state effect, most likely.

It would have been a good target in 2012 anyway just due to Hispanic growth, but if there's Hispanic growth and Hispanics are galvanized to turn out for Democrats, even better.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 14:11:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's giong to take longer than that, there's a big lagtime when it comes to...

...immigrant populations joining the electorate.

It's not like it was with immigrant communities in the late 19th/early 20th century, when big city party machines systematically integrated all new immigrants into the civic process for the party machine's benefit.

These days, besides the 5 years an immigrant must wait before applying for citizenship, most immigrants wait much longer before caring enough to go to the trouble of becoming a citizen, and they take even longer to register to vote.

This is why you see states with enormous Hispanic populations, especially in the Southwest, having Hispanic electorates that are only 50%-80% of the group's share of the population.  California, for example, has been a majority-minority state for a decade or more, but still white voters make up a clear majority, and in a midterm still could be up to two-thirds of the electorate.  Hispanics are roughly one-third of the state's population, but only 15-20% of the electorate.

It's going to be another decade before Hispanic voters overwhelm conservative whites to make the Southwest true blue.

I've come to believe that in 2008, Obama's personal appeal and his state of the art campaign created a false sense that the electorate was changing faster than it was.  That is, he got a lot of people of color from immigrant communities, Hispanics in particular but also Asians and others, to vote for him who would not have voted at all otherwise.  And those people are not necessarily going to vote without Obama on the ballot....for now.  Eventually they will vote no matter what, but that will take time.

I read just this weekend that the under-30 electorate in 2008 was only 68% white, and 32% non-white.  I understand also that public schools today have massive percentages of non-white students, often a majority in schools that were all-white when I was in high school in the 80s.  My own high school in Iowa, Marshalltown was virtually all-white when I was there, and I remember counting in my high school yearbook only 14 children of color, including myself, out of over 400 senior portraits.  Now I have learned roughly one-third of MHS students are Hispanic.  This story is going on everywhere.

And yet, I will be approaching retirement (I'm 42 now) before we see a massive influx fo these people into the electorate on a regular basis.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 14:51:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There's long term, and there's motivation, and there's AZ effects

Longer term, you're correct in an overall national sense (I think beyond the SW). But I'm talking AZ.

One thing that surprises me in hindsight w/r/t prop 187 is that the Hispanic voting reaction was not national. But why should it be, as it was a CA prop.

So on to AZ -- in '12. President Obama will be on the ballot.

Yup, Hispanics made up only 9% of the vote in AZ in '08, but that is already growing. Many are already near-eligibility for citizenship. As user sapelcovitis notes, AZ as a whole will be more D friendly without McCain atop the ticket.

So I think my initial assessment of AZ as lean-D in '12 in a close race is reasonable.

But down-ballot effects can lag. Bigger margins will be available by '16 and '18. So I think it's also reasonable to suggest that D success in the AZ Senate seats might also have to wait until those years. (Barring an unexpected surprise from Rod Glassman this year, or a superlative candidate against Kyl in '12.)

---

by: tietack @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 15:08:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Depends

if Obama wins nationally by at least what he did in 2008, he will carry Arizona.  Of course, if Obama loses nationally, he won't carry Arizona or come even close.

---

by: NewMex9999 @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 18:06:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, it's

interesting how public schools are much more minority than the place at large. My hometown (Providence, RI) is around 1/3 Latino but Wikipedia says our public school system is 55% Latino.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 15:41:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think it's Likely GOP, a far cry from my Lean Dem rating just prior to the immigration law

Keep in mind, there was a time when Jan Brewer, alongside David Paterson and Bev Perdue, was one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. She was extraordinarily lucky to wind up becoming the face of an immigration debate which, in Arizona, is just as hot, if not hotter than the economy.

The only way Terry Goddard can win this, or even come close to winning, is if he can paint Brewer as a complete failure on the state's budget and other non-immigration matters. The problem is, I only see the immigration debate getting more intense as the year goes on, and that only helps Brewer.

GOP - 42%
Independent - 30%
Democrat - 28%

Brewer - 93/56/17 = 61%
Goddard - 7/44/83 = 39%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 15:05:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How does your formula work?

I added up Brewer's numbers, and the total when divided by 3 is around 55, yet you show 61. Please explain.

---

by: Sheamus O'Range @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 15:15:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You don't

divide by 3, because the electorate is not a 33/33/33 split, it's weighted. (Actually, I got Brewer 62 and Goddard 38 with those numbers, but I might have messed up.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

---

by: sapelcovits @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 15:39:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As an Arizonan

I find your understanding of the race quite off. True, Brewer now has some political capital, but it's among national conservative groups; not in Yuma. Why would her endorsing someone on the other side of the country who almost no one in Arizona has ever even heard of have any relevance to the Arizona family where Dad's been laid off and can't find another job and Mom's worried the kids aren't going to learn to read at their grade level?

With regards to SB 1070, yes, it is unfortunately relatively popular among Arizona voters, though I doubt as much as Rasmussen would have you believe. I suspect those numbers will come back to earth after the state either begins to carry it out or it gets hung up in litigation. It might be hard to get a lot of people in Arizona to care what the ACLU has to say, but what about all the local police departments who know the bill will be an albatross around their neck and are fighting it too?

Furthermore, I doubt that you can see this from wherever you are, but Goddard is starting to present himself as someone who has a lot of ideas about immigration as well. Instead of grandstanding, though, he gets results. Arizona will, in fact, have two choices in November: someone with a proven record in keeping Arizonans safe from the real bad guys, the drug traffickers and the smugglers, and who is willing to reach for common-sense solutions for the rest of the immigrant community; or someone incapable of that sort of nuance, willing to subject or state to boycott, costly lawsuits, and cold-hearted racism just to gain some out-of-state political capital.

Finally, I hate to break it to you, but this election is going to be about a lot more than immigration. Arizonans need jobs and the need educational opportunities that give younger generations hope for the future. If Goddard even manages to neutralize her experience on immigration with his own, what else does she have to run on? Cutting education with her allies in the state leg to pay for huge cuts in business and corporate property taxes, then threatening the Arizona voter that if they don't raise sales taxes on themselves, she'll cut education clear through to the bone? Don't bet on it. Or maybe she can run on her ardent support for that law that she helped pass that bans human/animal hybrids? That'll be a big vote getter among the paranoid schizophrenics.

The fact of the matter is that, yes, Brewer finally, a year and a half into her often erratic administration, has an accomplishment to put to her name. This gives her a base, which in Arizona, makes the race at best for Dems a toss-up. Make no mistake, though: much of what she has done is dead-wrong for Arizona, and Arizonans will have a choice in November. Either way, I bet it's close.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

---

by: Nico @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 15:57:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope

that Handel and Deal rip each other to shreads. Reclaiming a governorship in a year like 2010, especially in a Red state, would be great for Democrats.

"I think the American people misunderestimated me." -George W. Bush

---

by: KS21 @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 14:26:03 PM UTC

We could get a nice benefit redistricting......

It would be nice if we could do the maps to create more purple seats.  I know VRA issues put some limits on that, but it must be doable somehow.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 14:55:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CO-Gov: Tancredo's in

http://blogs.denverpost.com/th...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 15:08:27 PM UTC

I may be rooting for moderate conservatives to win this cycle

but this is just hilarious. Now it makes me interested to find out what the American Constitution Party is about.

---

by: Sheamus O'Range @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 15:32:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, you're tears are so salty sweet!

Tastes like . . . CAT FUD!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 15:32:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not just cat fud

This is down right nasty. Tancredo just handed Hickenlopper the election, and may hand the Dems the Senate race, too. Hopefully Tancredo runs for President as the Constitution Party candidate - that should help us a bit.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

---

by: Anthony_Distler @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 15:37:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Great news

The Republicans won't be able to handle this sort of vote splitting, coupled with the fact they don't really have a viable candidate now.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

---

by: DrPhillips @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 16:00:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oklahoma

Wow that is an improvement for us. It looks like the race it is still winnable. Probably lean R though but still I think a lot of people had it at likely R for a while so it is nice to see poll numbers like that.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

---

by: hoosierdem @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 16:39:23 PM UTC

Melancon & Anzalone Liszt

Anzalone Liszt probably has the best reputation among internal pollsters for Southern Democrats, and possibly the best general pollster for Southern races more generally at this point. If their internals for Melancon show a solid surge over their previous ones, I'm inclined to believe them, especially because they're rather specific on which voters are turning against Vitter (unmarried white women) and why (the whole women's-issues-guy-knifing-his-girlfriend issue).

Admittedly, I have been among the most optimistic of posters on Melancon's chances, but I just really hope I get to say "I told you so" a lot on this one because I think we all agree that the Senate would be better off without Diaper Dave.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

---

by: arealmlc @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 17:12:03 PM UTC

A-L is a great pollster, but that doesn't mean the perception they're peddling should be trusted......

They have an agenda of selling Melancon's electability in a very tough year in a very tough state for Melancon's party.  That's why they released this poll.  And their release includes enough data to persuade the folks at Talking Points Memo, so they're doing a good job.

But all other polling has Melancon down double-digits, some approaching 20 points, and I'm not going to consider Melancon as having a shot at winning unless someone other than his hired gun says it's within the margin of error.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 17:19:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If it were really still in double-digits

I don't think Cook would have moved LA-Sen from likely to lean-R.

---

by: tietack @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 17:41:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Skepticism of those Sites

There's another poll in this digest that reflects the same thing. Cook, Rothenberg, et. all moved PA-3 to tossup because of Kelly's internal poll. They're being played there too.

I highly doubt a terrible candidate like Kelly is making serious movement. Nor, unfortunately, do I believe Melancon is making significant inroads.

---

by: tallsy @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 18:59:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does Dahlkemper have different data?

Otherwise, if Kelly's data is coherent, ratings moves make some sense.

Additional differences:

1) Cook, et. al. --often-- have access to more of the internals than we do

2) They also have the experience of previous politicos who have tried to "play them"

3) In the case of LA-Sen, they now have data from both sides, and can make a better evaluation by comparing internals

---

by: tietack @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:12:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More interesting is that

there was movement towards him even in Vitters internal. Average the two and you have a high single digit lead which seemed about right.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 17:43:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Vitter's primary opposition just turned back into "some dude"

http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

---

by: tietack @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 18:17:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP had him down by 9

So even in an internal, after some not favorable news for Vitter, is consistent with that.  

I'd imagine a PPP poll now would show Vitter up by 6 or 7, instead of 9.

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 00:11:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Democratic prospects on the rise?

Seems like some very good news for us lately:
The implosion of the Colorado governor's race almost assures us a victory there, and very likely helps out with the senate and congressional races.

We've just seen what may be the first poll (albeit an internal poll) showing Dems with a lead in NC.

Conway is within a few points in KY, and I don't think he's really gone negative on Paul yet (at least not in the form of advertising dollars), which can't be too hard to do at this point.

Reid's situation in Nevada seems to improve by the day.

We're likely to gain a Dem-caucusing independent in the Florida senate race, and our prospects improve in the governor's race with every dollar that Rick Scott spends.

We've got a good chance in TWO open-seat governorships in red, southern states (Texas and Georgia). Any Georgians have an insight into who's better to face in the general, Handel or Deal? My impression has been that Deal would be better for us, but I'm not quite sure.

Louisiana is still a hard nut to crack, but I think Chet's primary challenge (even though it looks to be languishing right now) is a sign of some real division among Republicans about whether Vitter is acceptable anymore. I don't think anyone should count Melancon out here.

Plus, our generic congressional ballot numbers have been increasing lately. I don't want to get too optimistic or anything, but things look much better than they did a month or two ago, right?

Thoughts? Comments?

---

by: Rtael @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 18:32:57 PM UTC

Texas

Isnt open.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 18:48:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree that Colorado and Nevada have improved

I think Elaine Marshall would've easily won in '06 or '08, but I suspect, in a GOP-friendly cycle, Richard Burr is slightly ahead. Her future ads has better not be as laughable as her first one.

KY-Sen has been curiously quiet lately, which, I suspect, means Rand Paul is still ahead. Until he delivers more gaffes, I suspect this one tilts slightly GOP. I mean, this is the state which voted for Jim friggin' Bunning in '04.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:16:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Prospects aren't "on the rise", this was all easily predictable

Like past years, the best friends the Dem has are the extremist/suicidal/delusional element of the Republican party.

"Energized" Republicans are a godsend to Democrats... Nevada, Colorado and Kentucky are two swing states and a deep red one, and in all the Democratics will only lose if they screw up (badly).

This implosion can't happen everywhere, but it will happen in many places (run BVP run).

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 00:15:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NH-Sen: Palin backing bolsters Ayotte in primary, hurts in general

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:22:30 PM UTC

This

is interesting

Ayotte's embrace of Palin seemed to suggest she was more worried about the primary than the general election and that calculus may work out for her in the end but tomorrow's numbers will show her match up with Paul Hodes the closest of any poll so far in 2010.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:31:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Hodes is really closing, that's HUGE......

Honestly the macropolitical environment hasn't improved at all lately and actually has degraded slightly the past month or two, so the improvement in some microdevelopments has been welcome.

And if Hodes is really closing on Ayotte, that's big for us.  I'd just about written off Hodes.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:32:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's the power

of the Palin endorsement to the generic electorate

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

---

by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:34:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If that's what it is, it very much surprises me. Endorsements rarely matter...

...to general election voters.  If they hear of them at all, they shrug them off.  Voters make their own judgments about candidates, and endorsements rarely do anything more than reinforce judgments already made.  I just don't see who is out there who really thinks, "I wasn't sure about Ayotte before, but since Palin endorsed her, I really dislike Ayotte."  That doesn't ring true to me.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:47:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Generally, endorsements don't matter.

However, Palin is radioactive. She has some of the worst approval ratings I've seen with the general public.  I am not surprised that her endorsement hurts with independents and Democrats especially in a NE state like NH.  

---

by: askew @ Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 01:37:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I dont think

Its all because of the Palin endorsement. Ayotte has been attacked by Hodes and Binnie because she has been the frontrunner. She has also had to tack right for the primary, which is a big part of her number among moderates. I think Jensen reads too much into a Palin endorsement while ignoring the other factors.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:45:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

THAT makes more sense, I agree. As right-wingers go, you definitely add....

...worthwhile commentary on this site, distinct from a couple other Republican commenters I've grown to really dislike.

I agree totally that attributing any improvment for Hodes to Palin's endorsement of Ayotte doesn't make sense.

The PPP guys do some good polling, but like pollsters tend to do, they take their own numbers too seriously and fail to see their own numbers tell only bits and pieces of an electoral story.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:50:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Another thing with PPP

Is they take endorsements too seriously.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 20:08:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Regardless of "too seriously"

however small or large the impact is, the Palin endorsement is certainly going to cost her some votes in the fall.

In contrast, there are few (maybe zero) places a Romney endorsement will hurt any Republican candidate.

---

by: tommypaine @ Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 00:19:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

as the above post talked about Democratic prospects improving, PPP will have a poll out tomorrow showing Kelly Ayotte's matchup with Paul Hodes the closest its been in any poll so far this year. She has also opened up a wide lead in the primary, thanks to the endorsement of Sarah Palin.

And as it relates to hair in California, a quite meaningless question, Boxer's hair is favored by 5 points. (19-14).  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

---

by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:26:48 PM UTC

The link

above can take you to the full analysis  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

---

by: TheGradyDem @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:27:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ayotte

Less than seven points then. PPP in April, Rasmussen and Research 2000 in February.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 21:40:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kendrick Meek attacks Jeff Greene, and it's a very good ad......

I really like this ad, I think it will work.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

That said, I've grown to have mixed feelings about this one.  I'm a cold-blooded realist, and I see only Crist as having a plausible path to victory among the two guys who would caucus with Team Blue.

But Meek is still my ideal choice, so I can't help but be happy when he does good.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:53:31 PM UTC

About doggone time

http://www.postonpolitics.com/...

Meek spokesman Adam Sharon said the campaign has made a "significant" statewide ad buy.

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by: tietack @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 19:57:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And yet Adam Smith at St. Pete Times says it's a small buy......

Smith reports $420K statewide, including $127K in Tampa Bay and $118K in Orlando.  That's really not a lot in a big state like Florida.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 01:39:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Suggests that Meek supporters are concerned

Why else would the campaign call it a big buy, when it's closer (proportionally) to what Vic Rawl spent in SC?

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by: tietack @ Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 01:57:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP has weed opening up a wide lead in CA

They have Proposition 19 up 52-36.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Their sample has 40% saying they've smoked before, so take it for what it's worth. I mean, it sounds reasonable, but that's not usually a question that comes up in exit polls, so I guess we'll never know for sure >.>

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 20:05:08 PM UTC

40%!?

Geez, that's way more han I expected. I'd say about 1 in 10 of my friends my age (18) over here have tried it. I'm just amazed it's so high there.  

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by: Ireland @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 21:55:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I went to a rich Catholic high school in the Northeast

So mine was probably a lot higher than 40%. Most of my friends and the people I knew smoked weed at least in social settings.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 22:11:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Keep In Mind, Though....

It is "have you ever used it before". As in, ever in your life. I am among the 60% who have not, but I think if you asked that question in ANY state, 40% would be just about right.

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

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by: Steve Singiser @ Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 22:35:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That number has got to be way low

Californians who have tried weed has to be well over 50%.  It's over 50% nationally among 18-50 year olds.

No doubt will be some Bradley effect here, as some people who have used won't admit it even on a touchphone.

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by: tommypaine @ Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 00:25:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In case anyone missed it, the KY poll is useless

The sample was 77% age 50 and older.

Beyond silly.

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by: tommypaine @ Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 00:38:42 AM UTC