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SSP Daily Digest: 7/20 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Jul 20, 2010 at 8:03 AM EDT


  • WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin is holding a press conference at 10am today to announce his intentions with regard to the special election for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's now-vacant senate seat. Apparently, Manchin is paying for a live satellite feed, leading Mike Memoli to quip that this has to mean he's running.
  • OH-Gov: Is this really the right way to be doing things? The Cleveland Plain-Dealer explains John Kasich's strategy for dealing with the media:
  • Until now, Kasich has run a low-profile race with the exception of showing up on national Fox radio and television programs. His campaign advisors repeatedly dodge or refuse to answer questions from local media covering the race.

    Kasich must know it. Even as one of his spokesmen tried to pull him away from the media on Monday, Kasich held his ground and with one parting shot vowed to be more accessible.

    "There is this perception in some quarters that Kasich is not available. You think I am not available you call me," he said. "Because I don't think I've ever turned down any of your interviews, unless they are just stupid questions."

    Uh, no. It's not the right way. And nor is Kasich's first ad, which we discussed yesterday, where he basically repeats Ted Strickland's (dead-on) accusations against him. I've learned from a source that Kasich's ad buy is actually for real - about $200K over three weeks, in Cincy and Columbus - but I don't know if I'd be too unhappy about that if I were the Strickland team. Kasich is proving to be his own worst enemy.

  • TX-Gov: File this under "TX-Gov, 2006": Rick Perry just settled a lawsuit with Chris Bell, his Democratic opponent from the last time Perry sought re-election, for some $426,000. Bell had accused Perry of trying to mask the source of a $1 million donation from Bob Perry, the kind of Swift Boat pond scum, in the waning days of the 2006 race.
  • Meanwhile, Obama alert! The POTUS is coming to Texas on August 9th to do two fundraisers, one for the DNC and one for the DSCC. I'm filing this under TX-Gov, though, because Dem gubernatorial candidate Bill White says he has no plans to attend either event.

  • ID-01: It was a bridge too far, even for Walt Minnick. The Democratic frosh is rejecting the endorsement of the Tea Party Express, on account of their refusal to refudiate racist jerkwad Mark Williams. (Click the link if you really need the backstory.) Minnick is still touting his support from local teabaggers, though.
  • NC-02: Remember Renee Ellmers? I don't, either, but fortunately Politico reminds us she's the GOPer who was hoping to capitalize on Bob Etheridge's seriously over-the-top response to those weirdo Republican kids who were trying to videotape him doing something embarrassing (boy did they ever). But as one brave anonymous consultant says, Ellmers is clearly "not ready for prime time": she utterly failed to capitalize on the gift she was handed and has only $42,000 in the bank, while Etheridge has $1.2 million.
  • NY-01: Good news: Rep. Tim Bishop scored the Independence Party line in his bid for re-election. Bishop also has the Working Families Party line.
  • NY-14: If there's one thing Reshma Saujani is good at, it's protesting too much. She's as touchy about her Wall Street connections as John Kasich, claiming that "only" 25% of her donors in 2Q work in the banking industry. Justin Elliott at Salon crunched the numbers and found that this actually amounted to a full 48% of Saujani's cash haul - even worse than the one-third I calculated represented her share from financiers in the first quarter. Another Salon writer, Alex Pareene, also points out how whack-ass Saujani's messaging has been, trying to downplay her own extreme reliance on Wall Street while attacking Maloney for raising money from from financial types. Moreover, as Liz Benjamin details, Saujani has had a high burn rate ($1.2 million raised, $770K spent, and no TV as yet), and only $272K of her $428K on hand is primary money. The rest is only good for a phantom general election.
  • NY-20: More good Independence Party news: Rep. Scott Murphy will have the IP line free and clear. Republican Chris Gibson had hoped to challenge Murphy for the line in a primary, but the party refused to give Gibson the necessary "certificate of authorization" (known to hardcore NY junkies as a "Wilson-Pakula") that allows candidates to run on the line of a party they are not a member of.
  • PA-07: Biden AND Pelosi alert! The fearsome twosome did a fundraiser in Philly yesterday that raised $250,000. Half will go to Bryan Lentz's campaign coffers and half will go to the D-Trip.
  • VA-02: Republican Scott Rigell, trailing Rep. Glenn Nye by about a million bucks in the cash department, is dumping another $500K of his own money into his campaign, according to a spokesman. That brings his total self-loans to a pretty hefty $1.4 million.
  • WI-07: An interesting catch from WisPolitics: Just a week before announcing his retirement, Rep. Dave Obey spent $30,000 on polling. That means he took some very thorough surveys before deciding to hang up his spurs. He also still has a million bucks on hand - which will hopefully be making its way to the DCCC before long.
  • NY-AG: Definitely down in the weeds, but this is SSP, after all: SurveyUSA has a poll of the New York Attorney General's race, a seat that's open this year because the sitting one-term AG, Andrew Cuomo, is running for governor. Nassau County DA Kathleen Rice is the clear frontrunner with 32%. Assemblyman Richard Brodsky and state Sen. Eric Schneiderman are both at 9, while wealthy trial lawyer Sean Coffey and former state Ins. Comm'r (not an elected job)/former Securities Bureau chief at the AG's office Eric Dinallo are both at 7. Part of the reason I'm posting this, though, is because I genuinely have no idea who I want to support. So I'm asking the New Yorkers here: who are you backing in this race, and why?
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/20 (Morning Edition)
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    TX-Gov
    Rick Perry, Bob Perry...I assume no relation?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Only financial


    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

    [ Parent ]
    NY-AG
    Why is that down in the weeds? People in that position (Spitzer, Cuomo) can have big careers, and given its powers relating to Wall Street it can be a job with national implications. I don't live there but I'm not crazy about Rice. She seems so purposefully moderate, and being hand-picked by Cuomo, well, her candidacy just seems so political.

    I completely agree
    A Rice victory would be very frustrating , especially considering how much of a spring-board this is for higher office. Eric Schneiderman, however, would be far more progressive than New York officials have been lately.

    [ Parent ]
    The fact that Scheiderman is a state Senator
    gives me some pause, since that body is corrupt, incompetent, and dysfunctional. I don't know much about his individual record as a Senator, though.

    I'm also completely undecided and not sufficiently knowledgeable about this race.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    I don't thinky anyone can question Manchin's political instincts at this point
    He's done a masterful job in stretching out the special election suspense for nearly a month now, and he will almost certainly benefit from the fact that the length of this campaign will be about 3 1/2 months.

    I can only assume
    You haven't been reading lordmike's posts lol

    [ Parent ]
    here's one thing ive been kind blah about
    His insane attention to detail to make sure everything goess off without a hitch to an annoying degree, I've just been yelling at my computer, just run already!  Now that he's taken so effing long, he just cut his campaign by 2 weeks or so.

    I'm gonna prepare myself now for when I yell at my computer for when he votes crappy.


    [ Parent ]
    NY-AG: I'm backing Eric Schneiderman
    Undoubtedly, he's the most progressive candidate of a rather moderate bunch. Kathleen Rice is a notorious flip-flopper, loathed by progressives and a lot of downstate liberals, and, yet, because she's the only female in the race, she's probably the front-runner. My second favorite is probably Richard Brodsky, and then the other two I couldn't care less about.

    I suspect, demographically, this race will be drawn upon geographical lines. There's a long way to go between now and primary day, but if I had to take a stab at predicting this...

    NYC: (50%)
    Schneiderman - 40%
    Dinallo - 30%
    Rice - 20%
    Brodsky - 5%
    Coffey - 5%

    Upstate: (27%)
    Rice - 40%
    Schneiderman - 30%
    Brodsky - 10%
    Dinallo - 10%
    Coffey - 10%

    NYC Suburbs: (23%)
    Rice - 35%
    Brodsky - 20%
    Coffey - 20%
    Schneiderman - 15%
    Dinallo - 10%

    Overall: (100%)
    Schneiderman - 31%
    Rice - 29%
    Dinallo - 20%
    Brodsky - 10%
    Coffey - 10%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    I thought Liz Holtzman was running.


    [ Parent ]
    She never went further than an exploratory committee
    Her internal poll had her trouncing the competition, but she just came in too late. By the time she began making the rounds at speaking engagements, most of the party chairs had already endorsed among the official candidates; only the Tompkins County chair was holding out for Holtzman. She wrote a letter in the Daily News hinting she may run for public office in the near future, though.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    In the future?
    She's 68. She'd better not wait too long.

    [ Parent ]
    Schneiderman participation in the farce that is the Senate Democratic caucus disqualifies him for me.
    The thing about Sen Schneiderman is that he is part and parcel of the Albany mess.

    Schneiderman never stood up to and in fact actively supported  the corrupt Senate Democratic leadership of Espada,Wilson and Sampson.

    One vote can change the State Senate and Sen Schneiderman never went along with the sham. Shame on him.

    Besides I think the hit and run (or should I say bump and run) proves what kind of guy he is. For those who dont know about a week ago Schneiderman was in a car being driven by one of his aides (who btw is Elana Kagan's niece)hit a park car. They took off with out stopping or leaving a note. It was up to a good Sumerian cyclist who witness the accident to take down his plates and wait for the owner of the car to show up to give her the info. Story here:
    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/l...

    To me this is just the typical Albany arrogance. This guy wants to be the top law enforcement agent in NYS yet he cant even obey the laws and do the right thing and leave a note when he's in a fender bender?

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    As for the others in the AG race....
    Rice is Cuomo's candidate and what Andyroo says about her is pretty dead on IMHO. She barely survived re-election last year in the Nassua GOP wave that washed out Tom Suozzi.

    Brodsky is Shelly Silver's candidate. The two are very close. So I am not sure having Silver allies as Comptroller and AG would be a good thing for Cuomo. One thing about Brodsky is there is a very heart warming story about how he was going to run for AG 4 years ago but pulled out of the race so he could donate a kidney to his 14 year old dauughter.

    Dinallo is Spizer's guy and Coffey is the outsider and probably most progressive in the race.


    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Hit n Run
    Schneiderman's little 'hit n run' practice on the parked car is a huge turnoff for me -- illegal, arrogant, elitist, simply bad manners. But Brodsky-Silverman is worse on policy and more of the same stuff from the exact same people in Albany. The choices leave me wanting. Without a compelling reason otherwise, I'll probably say, Why not a woman in high state office? Pretty lame, I know.

    [ Parent ]
    I assume you mean good Samaritan
    think Sumeria stopped existing a while ago?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    yes
    Stupid instant spell check on this computer always mess me up!

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    it's ok
    if nothing else it was good for a chuckle. ;)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    If the Post is reporting that story accurately
    - never a sure thing to me - it completely disqualifies this man from any position involving law-enforcement, in my strong opinion.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    They are actually kinder to him than NY-1 has been.
    The car he hit was that of a producer at NY1. They have been totally brutal on him ever since. I mean if you are going to hit a car and take off without leaving a note at least make sure its not a member of the press you are doing it to!

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    for the love of god, no more "well she's a woman"
    That's how we got stuck with Coakley pretty much (I think) and is the main reason MAK smacked down Rybak for the DFL endorsement for MN-Gov.

    And MAK's ads are not very impressive.....  ::sigh::  I really hope she loses the primary.


    [ Parent ]
    Relax
    The Coakley analogy doesn't hold because no way in hell will a Repub (whoever it is ) win AG in NY State this year.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually the Republican in the race Dan Donovan isnt half bad
    He is the SI DA. Bloomberg endorsed him. He promised to make political corruption the priority of the DA office. I like him because he really pissed off the SI Boro President and Conservative Party boss James Molinaro by prosecuting on of his nephews.

    If a Republican has to win he is not a bad one and I am half thinking of voting for him.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    I would consider him on that kind of basis, too
    I seldom vote Republican but would vote for a Republican AG if I thought he would do the most for justice.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Do
    not forget Jill Long Thompson either. I have little doubt her primary opponent would have at least gotten over 45 if not closer.
     

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not sure
    the "she's the only woman" part resonates here as much. Cyrus Vance won pretty convincingly in NYC over Lisa Crocker Snyder for Manhattan DA. Both were solid candidates, and I think that race is a pretty good analog to the AG race.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    AR-Sen: Lincoln internals have Boozman up 9
    mmmmmhhhhhmmmmmm
    Right.....  

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen: Blumenthal up 13
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Scotty finds McMahon now leading among Independents, but she's still got a steep hill to climb here.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    NYAG - Dinallo
    ...because he is the most qualified to actually do the job.

    He has worked in the AG's office where he helped Spitzer transform it into a power to oversee Wall Street. He was the Insurance Superintendent of New York State where he forced insurance companies to cover same sex marriages from other states event though NYS hasn't passed marriage equality. As an Ass't DA in Manhattan, he helped lock up violent criminals.

    In short, he is exactly what you want in an AG....AND, he doesn't want to use the office as a stepping stone to run for Governor.

    My $.02.

     

    The Albany Project. The best damned blog about New York politics.


    Thanks for that rundown
    I was polled on his behalf a few months ago. On the face of it, his qualifications seem impressive. I'll be interested to check out any eventual debates between the candidates, though.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Taegan Goddard
    says Manchin's running for WV-Sen, for real. (not a surprise but still.)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    Damnit, you beat me to it.
    Not like it was a surprise anyhow.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    Today is
    the HI filing deadline. In 10 days DE has its filing deadline, and that's all folks.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    IA-Sen
    Chuck Grassley will vote no on Elana Kagan. He also voted against confirming Sotomayor last year. Prior to that, he had never voted against confirming a SCOTUS nominee.

    Democracy for America just endorsed Roxanne Conlin. EMILY's list endorsed her a few weeks ago. That should help her fundraising; Conlin's brought in a lot, but Grassley still has a big cash on hand advantage.

    I won't be at Netroots Nation, unfortunately, but Conlin will be there, so maybe some of you SSPers will get to meet her.


    Impressed with another aye
    From Senator Graham. He is soooo getting, ahem, teabagged in 2014.

    [ Parent ]
    He'll
    enjoy it.  

    [ Parent ]
    NY-AG
    I'm also very undecided.  I like the idea of Schneiderman, but I agree with the comment above that his mere presence in Albany during this last legislative session is grounds for voting against him.

    I don't know much about Kathleen Rice, but she seems okay to me.  I have no problem with ambitious politicians -- they're all ego-centric and looking for the next thing--as long as they are effective.  If anyone knows a major, specific reason of why she'd be no good, please post it here...


    Florida
    Crist 35%, Rubio 29%, Meek 17%

    Crist 38%, Rubio 29%, Greene 13%

    Good analysis here: http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    Sample voted McCain 48, Obama 46.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    I like it when PPP
    Supports my assumptions - Rasmussen has about a 5 point GOP lean and turnout in November will move about 6 points to the Republicans from 2008.

    [ Parent ]
    It
    seems odd that Rubio is doing so poorly with Hispanics.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Florida Hispanics are increasingly non-Cuban......
    The non-Cuban Hispanic population is growing in Florida and making up an increasing share of the state's Hispanic voters.

    That said, I, too, am surprised Rubio isn't doing better, because I would think even with their vote share shrinking within the Hispanic demographic, Cuban Republicans and Republican-leaners still would be a big enough chunk of the state's Hispanics for Rubio to fare much better there.

    Of course there is the frequently simple answer that the subsample itself is wrong, with a high margin of error for too few respondents in that demographic.  So it's possible Rubio is doing better with Hispanics in reality than PPP showed, but a little worse with whites than PPP showed, and it all evens out in the topline.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Immigration issues maybe?
    I seem to recall him taking a hardline.  Easy to do when people from your ethnic group get automatic permanent residency as soon as they set foot on American soil... But Floridan Hispanics are not as overwhelming Cuban as they used to be, so there might be some backlash from the non-Cuban Hispanics.  

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    New TV ad from Sharron Angle. What do you make of it?


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    Why are all the people present white and are middle-aged and older?
    It looks like a small bunch of teabaggers (they probably are).  Either way, it's not a good sample of the voters (i.e. no latinos, African-Americans, etc., and there are no young adults present).  Either way, this ad doesn't seem to click.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Why are all the people present white and are middle-aged and older?
    It looks like a small bunch of teabaggers (they probably are).  Either way, it's not a good sample of the voters (i.e. no latinos, African-Americans, etc., and there are no young adults present).  Either way, this ad doesn't seem to click.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Oops, double post.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Forgive my bad writing. I'm still kinda groggy.


    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!


    [ Parent ]
    Happens
    to the best of us.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    I saw one ambiguously brown dude!.....
    Granted, it was quick, he was sitting there and the camara barely caught a glimpse of him, it was as if the camaraman realized he'd made a mistake--NO DARKIES!--and lurched the lens away from the dude as fast as he could.

    But otherwise, yeah, it was a room full of old white teabaggers.  I, too, noticed that.

    It's amazing, you can easily find a few token people of color to spruce up a staged audience for a TV ad.  Republicans do it all the time, they've come to accept it as necessary in recent years even as they keep losing black voters 90-10 and Hispanics 2-to-1.

    But not Wacky Sharron, no-sir-ee!

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Bit cliche
    Especially the Reagan quoting anti-government spiel. Doesn't really say much of anything at all. Looks like a church. Can't see it moving many voters, especially those going sour on her.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree, another very mediocre ad. Broad messaging on the economy doesn't cut it......
    Yes Nevada's economy is pitiful and that's a big driver for people voting Republican, and yes Reid is personally unpopular.  But Angle really hasn't tied Reid to the bad economy effectively, nor has she said why she'd do anything useful to help the state's economy.  And those ads with the audio of her saying point blank it's not her job as a U.S. Senator to bring jobs to Nevada just knocks her on her ass.

    Angle is running ads that would have been good the first couple weeks after the primary, if she had the money to run them.  But the broader messaging and her and Reid's respective public images have evolved beyond what Angle is trying to say.  It's like time has blown right past her, and she doesn't notice.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    The ad
    has a buy of 330K.

    http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    [ Parent ]
    Reid up by 2
    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    Reid 48
    Angle 46

    Reid has a 9 approval rating, much better than January when it was  22.

    Angle approval 36/52

    Sample was Obama +4

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Don't know
    why part of that got crossed out

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    Because of the dash


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    I am still keeping it at a tossup until we start seeing some more polling like Mason Dixon, a two point lead is good but not good enough for lean D.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    When polls consistently show the same candidate leading, margins don't matter......
    That's a lesson I learned in 2004 Prez.  Bush consistently led Kerry in most polls, but always within the margin of error, always 1-4 points.  And all those polls were right.

    If I see a mixed bag on who's actually leading between Reid and Angle, I'll consider it a tossup.  But 4 straight polls showing Reid up 4, "nearly identical" to 4 (see Ralston quoted in Political Wire on private non-Dem poll), 7, and now 2, that adds up to "lean Dem."

    Oh, and one noteworthy thing about this PPP poll, unlike others they offered respondents only Reid, Angle, and undecided as choices.  So we're seeing Reid winning now even when "none of the above" and other candidates are erased.  That's a big deal, if he's winning a 2-way, he's probably winning by a very slightly larger margin in reality.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Agree with above
    Reid has a consistent lead. He's winning.

    (so you don't think I'm too partisan on this - same logic leads me to conclude Blunt has a slight lead on Carnahan right now. Haven't seen Robin lead a poll in awhile)  


    [ Parent ]
    Obama won by 12
    Good sample. 44-53 disapproval for Reid ain't so bad. Tossup with a slight D tilt.

    [ Parent ]
    Compared to 2008
    Race - 69% White, 15% Hispanic, 10% Black becomes 73, 14, 8.

    Ideology - 44% Moderate, 34% Conservative, 22% Liberal becomes 47, 40, 13

    Party - 38% Democrat, 30% Republican, 32% Independent becomes 41, 39, 20.


    [ Parent ]
    Thanks for looking that up. You're right, reasonable turnout model. (nm)n
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Rangel's district
    was polled by Public Policy Polling for democrats.com. http://www.democrats.com/files...

    Rangel leads Powell 39-21, with Johnson at 7, Tasini at 6, and Morgan at 2. Rangel has a 49/27 approval.

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    Why do so many people approve of him there?
    As someone who grew up in that district, I really don't get it. But if the opponents can line up behind one non-Rangel candidate, he might have a chance.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Magellan poll of Wisconsin
    Caveat
    "This survey was commissioned and paid for by the Judicial Crisis Network."

    Accordingly, some of the questions are somewhat "pushy". Including...

    T16. And which party best represents your political view point?
    DEMOCRAT PARTY
    33.0%
    REPUBLICAN PARTY
    32.0%
    OTHER PARTY
    35.0%

    Feingold still leads with indies. He'll be fine but it'll be close.


    [ Parent ]
    Phil Hare trails by 13?
    http://www.nationalreview.com/...
    I know he's not the most popular guy in his district, but 13 points seems a little much?  

    Nothing to do with him
    "Among all voters, 44% support the generic Republican candidate for Congress and 35% support the generic Democrat candidate."

    In a D+3 district that Gore won by 10, Kerry by 3 and Obama by 14? These are just getting silly now.


    [ Parent ]
    lol
    Do you really trust internal polls GOPVOTER? You are too smart to actually believe this poll I would hope.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Not this one
    Some I do, if the result is realistic. I could see this as a close race, but I can't see Schilling leading by this much already, especially since he was unopposed in the primary and still probably very unknown.  

    [ Parent ]
    I believe it to an extent
    Hare is extremely unpopular. The lead is way overstated though. Hare is facing a competitive race and is probably down by less than 5.

    Back in November 2009, he had reelects of -7, in a poll conducted by We Ask America

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26


    [ Parent ]
    The more
    I think about it, the more I think Hare leads, by less than 5.  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    His opponent
    Has been a surprisingly strong fundraiser though. He's raised 300k, which really isnt that great. However, he has one thing many, many Republican challengers this cycle don't: a very low burn rate, with 211k on hand. This race is probably somewhere in between a 5 pt lead for either candidate. Not as good a pick-up opportunity as Halvorson's district, but a lot better than Bean's.  

    [ Parent ]
    300k total or for the last quarter?


    [ Parent ]
    $300k total, $139k in 2Q.


    [ Parent ]
    Barely above par
    Not too worried then.

    [ Parent ]
    IL-17
    Looks like it's gerrymandered as a Democratic vote sink in western Illinois. If Schilling wins, he'll probably be redistricted out of existence, perhaps into Costello's district.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    The Illinois 2002 Redistricting
    was a bipartisan, incumbent-protection gerrymander. IL-17 was designed to reelect Rep. Lane Evans (D), who retired for health reasons in 2006.

    [ Parent ]

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