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SSP Daily Digest: 7/19 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jul 19, 2010 at 3:30 PM EDT


• AZ-Sen: Sounds like this weekend's GOP primary, full of barbs and genuinely angry potshots between J.D. Hayworth and John McCain had only one beneficiary: random teabagger Jim Deakin, who didn't seem to suffer any collateral damge.

• DE-Sen: The Susan B. Anthony List has endorsed minor-league primary challenger Christine O'Donnell instead of the pro-choice Mike Castle in the GOP Senate primary in Delaware. Delaware isn't exactly known for its large social conservative vote share, so it remains to be seen whether this changes anything.

• MT-Sen: There have been odd rumors that Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who'll be looking for something to do starting in 2012, was considering a primary challenge to Max Baucus in 2014, motivated at least in part over their different approaches to health care reform. Schweitzer ruled out running for the Senate, though (also ruling out a possible 2012 seat-swap with Jon Tester, which also had been rumored). The possibility of what he'd do if the septuagenarian Baucus retired in 2014, though, didn't seem to get broached.

• NH-Sen: One more addition to the Mama Grizzly corral, and it's a big name who's, well, a woman, but has some competition from her right: Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire. Interesting that Sarah Palin refudiated the more teabaggish challengers (Ovide Lamontagne and Jim Bender).

• CO-Gov: Scott McInnis is not dropping out and is still in it to lose it, he vows, pressure and polling notwithstanding. He will, however, be repaying that $300K to the foundation that employed him to write and not plagiarize his research papers for them. However, it seems some of his underlings are clearly seeing the handwriting on the wall. Three key staffers (his policy director, political director, and regional director) all announced they were leaving the campaign.

• MI-Gov: A Detroit News/WDIV poll (conducted by the Glengariff Group) finds, like everybody else, a very close race in the Republican primary. They have Mike Cox and Peter Hoekstra both at 26, with Rick Snyder at 20, Mike Bouchard at 12, and Tom George at 2. They see a possible route for Snyder to win over undecideds, based on his low unfavorables (he's at 36/8). Mike Bouchard also has a couple new endorsements to his name, although they're from the spouses of two once-important politicians: the wives of ex-Gov. John Engler and ex-Sen. Spencer Abraham. The spouse endorsement, of course, is the time-honored method of boosting your behind-the-scenes friend while still not getting your hands dirty wasting political capital on a sure loss (see the Deval Patrick spousal endorsement of Mike Capuano in the MA-Sen primary).

• NE-Gov: After much speculation that the Dems were simply going to leave their ballot line blank and let Dave Heineman run unopposed to another gubernatorial term, they've found a willing victim candidate to fill the place left by Mark Lakers (who dropped out post-primary but pre-convention). It's Mike Meister, a trial attorney who lost the 2002 Attorney General's race.

• OH-Gov: John Kasich's new ad is weak. I know, I know, I'm a partisan, but if this were a Democrat running this ad, I'd be pounding my head on the desk. His first TV spot starts out with him on the defensive, pointing out that he didn't run Lehman Brothers, just profited handsomely off it.

• OR-Gov: Chris Dudley ruffled some feathers over the weekend by ducking the decades-long traditional debate that opens the campaign season in this civic-minded state, held by the Oregon Newspaper Publishers Association. Dudley said that he'd already had plans for a family vacation then, and Democrats predictably said that this was part of a bigger pattern of ducking issues. (Note: don't piss off the people who buy ink by the bucket. Newspaper e-boards across the state, even the conservative ones, have been scornful.) Then he got really busted: his family vacation just happened to be combined with a visit with the RGA, and its many donors, at an event in Aspen, Colorado. Oregonians aren't likely to begrudge him for a little downtime, but lying about what he's doing... not so much.

• WI-Gov: This seems a little too convenient. GOP Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker's staff just gave a no-bid contract for emergency structural engineering inspections to Graef-USA... a contractor that just happens to be a major Walker campaign contributor.

• MI-13: There are two new polls that look at the Democratic primary in the 13th, and both give a small lead to Hansen Clarke, over Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick. Clarke leads 38-30 in the Detroit News/WDIV poll, and Clarke leads 44-31 in an EPIC-MRA poll released last week. That's on top of a third poll from last week that we already mentioned that also had a Clarke lead, so I'm sensing a pattern here. There's a handful of other candidates, but they're only polling in low single digits... it seems like having only one credible challenger (Clarke, a termed-out state Senator) to Kilpatrick, instead of two like in 2008, is the key to winning the race.

• Legislatures: There are two different stories out today looking at the lay of the land in two legislative chambers that seem among the likeliest to flip to Republican control this year: the Iowa State House, and the Pennsylvania State House, with mentions of some of the most competitive seats in each case.

• NRCC: With the House GOP pretty much assured of gaining a significant number of seats this year, it's been a while since we've done one of these. But could it be time for another... Pete Sessions Deathwatch®? Texas GOPer Tom Pauken, a Rick Perry ally who was state party chair in the 1990s, has been talking Sessions down, saying he's "not up to the job" and he should be replaced by "a smart conservative who knows what needs to be done." That news comes on a day when NRCC staff are busy doing damage control, mopping up behind Sessions after his comments that "we need to go back to the exact same agenda" of the Bush years.

• Rasmussen:
• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 34%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 43 53%
• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 29%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 57%
• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 36%, Ralph Samuels (R) 48%
• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 30%, Ralph Samuels (R) 49%
• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 38%, Bill Walker (R) 46%
• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 32%, Bill Walker (R) 50%
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 38%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%
• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 44%, Scott Walker (R) 48%
• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Mark Neumann (R) 43%

Also a must read today: a new piece from Nate Silver makes the point that "Hey, YouGov's internet-only polling isn't that methodologically bad," but that's by way of comparing it to Rasmussen's sampling techniques, which (no shock to SSP readers) aren't likely to produce a very accurate cross-section of the population.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/19 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 7/19 (Afternoon Edition) | 139 comments
Correction
Parnell/Berkowitz 53-34, not 43-34.  I wish!  

Actually still slightly better than I would have guessed.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

was going to say
it didn't make sense why berkowitz was doing SO much better than hollis, unless he was an absolutely toxic candidate.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Oops
I saw your comment after I posted!

We'll have to see if Berkowitz can close the gap going forward.

[ Parent ]
I've heard people saying
he's trying to just keep his name around.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
AK-GOV Rasmussen
I like the Berkowitz/Parnell numbers. Considering that Berkowitz ran last cycle for the at-large Congressional seat, I'd have to say Alaska voters at least know him better than if this was his first rodeo. Those numbers make sense to me considering that the Palin/Parnell administration has suffered a decrease in their sky-high approval ratings. I think our best bet for a competitive race is for Berkowitz and Parnell to grab their respective parties' nominations.
The Kasich ad is terrible
You're right that the whole thing looks defensive and uncomfortable, from his "I was one of many people there" retort, to him jerking and twitching around like a crack addict.  I just don't see him playing well in a state like Ohio.
"When did you stop beating your wife"
Kasich decided to form an answer to the question. Stupid. Also, he looks desperate to make the question go away as he explains himself. REAL desperate, gasping for air.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Shades of Ric Keller
No?
[ Parent ]
whining
What I'd want from a governor.  Whining.

BTW:  I don't live in OH.  Kasich's funny name can't help.  All this time, I thought it was pronounced "ka SEECH".

[ Parent ]
Kasich's name is not that funny
I think it's Croatian or Serbian, somewhere around there...but that's pretty common in Ohio (Dennis Kucinich, George Voinovich) and the Rust Belt in general (Rod Blagojevich, Pete Visclosky).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Your first ad should certainly not involve
you going on the defensive about something your opponent says about you.  That just set the entire tone of the campaign for me.  (Granted, Im me and not a typical Ohio resident.)

And crack addict indeed, wtf?  Makes you wonder what the other takes were like, yeesh.

[ Parent ]
Kelly Ayotte is teabaggish enough
I think when we get closer to November the polling there will get more reasonable.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
New Hampshire
I suspect being a tea party person does not hurt in New Hampshire.  With the state's libertarian streak, being all libertarian probably helps.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Depends what type of tea-bagger you are
If you compare Obama to Hitler, I doubt you'll do well in NH.  You keep it to the issues, then that's fine.  And Im sure Ayotte would keep it to the later, if at all.  She's never struck me as a tea-bagger, even if she's been endorsed by one.
[ Parent ]
I think aligning with the Tea Party hurts Ayotte
To me, (someone who's voted Libertarian even in 2008), its more about being anti-govt and being independent.  The being independent thing to me is what can REALLY help Ayotte in NH.  

Being aligned to the Tea Party carries potential liabilities, as Ayotte can't control other Tea Party candidates words or the overall party's message.

I'm not sure she needs any "help" from the Tea Party organization itself, at least not officially.

[ Parent ]
I doubt it
Hodes is a generic Democrat, and running as a generic Democrat isn't going to get you anywhere this year.
[ Parent ]
It sure will, if...
you are running against a wingnut.

See Reid and Conway to start.

[ Parent ]
Reid
Is hardly a generic Democrat.  
[ Parent ]
Angle and Paul
are pretty special levels of wingnut. I don't know if you were referring to Ayotte or Bender/Lamontagne, but either way Binnie and Ayotte will definitely avoid the wingnut label, however unfairly.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Palin
to me her endorsement of Ayotte seemed to have the same ostensible logic as her endorsement of Branstad...i.e., someone who looks likely to win in an early-voting state.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
GA-GOV Poll
Big lead for Handel, with Ox in DEAD LAST.

http://www.magellanstrategies....

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

What the hell happened here?
He has absolutely collapsed! I don't remember any indication his support was so soft. But goes to show how important Palin's endorsement is in a GOP primary.
[ Parent ]
Handel was surging before that
Only 14% of GOP voters said they'd vote for Palin in 2012. Handel's a strong candidate and while the endorsement is a boost to the campaign, she would've been ahead with or without Palin.
[ Parent ]
Maybe
Since he's the Insurance Commissioner, and insurance anything really isn't that popular these days, that's when people decided maybe this Oxendine guy shouldn't be running the state. That's a little conspiracy theory idea for you.
[ Parent ]
He had highest name rec
So people naturally said they'd vote for him cause they knew who he was. Now, people are getting to know the other 3 and they are really getting to know him, and they don't like the real him.  
[ Parent ]
You don't want to be a frontrunner in a Southern primary ..
.. unless you pull into that status in the last few weeks before the vote. All the other candidates are gunning for you.  You are the best known candidate with the highest expectations.  You are on top and can only go down from there.  Once you are in a runoff, all your opponents' suporters consolidate behind the other guy.  

The 'out of the gate' frontrunner rarely wins a competitive primary in the Southern runoff states.  

[ Parent ]
Is this true
I wasn't sure if you were serious or sarcastic.  Has this been a trend in the recent past?  It would be a fascinating thing to look at if true.
[ Parent ]
Well, this year.....
NC--Frontrunner won (Marshall)
SC--McMaster frontran, Haley won
AL--Byrne and Davis frontran, Bentley and Sparks won
TX--Hutchison frontran, Perry won
AR--Frontrunners won (Lincoln, Boozman)
KY--Greyson and Mongiardo frontran, Paul and Conway won
FL--Crist, Meek, and McCollum frontran. Results TBA, but Crist obviously won't be winning the GOP primary

LA, TN, and GA to come

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Ehh
I thought it was more serious.  I'm not sure how/when Hutchinson was a true frontrunner.  After reading exit polls it became pretty clear that Davis was never really a frontrunner either (to me it just made no sense that Sparks beat hom among almost all cross-sections of the electorate).  

It'd have been neat if it was the case 100% of the time and that happened.  But of course in politics that's never the case.

[ Parent ]
And many of those are two person races
Plus, what makes that hard to compare is that only Southern states really have run-offs.  You cant measure a trend only against itself
[ Parent ]
NV-SEN
New poll out tomorrow from PPP shows Sharron Angle getting 9% with liberals, and 80% of conservatives, down from 12%/82% Lowden was getting.

How about among moderates? Harry Reid was winning them by about 10 points against Lowden (slightly surprised about that) Now, Harry Reid is beating Sharron Angle among moderates by 36 points.

A big difference.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Don't be surprised at that
Dems almost always win moderates even when getting blown out overall. The last NV poll from PPP was in January and found Lowden up 51-41. Ideological breakdown in that sample was Liberal 17%, Moderate 45% and
Conservative 38% so am thinking Harry leads in this poll too.
[ Parent ]
9%
I guess then there are 9% of NV liberals out there still mad about the public option, to the point of insanity.
[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
Some of them are on DK
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

For the record, I advocated primarying Reid in response to that diary. I am now glad that did not happen.

[ Parent ]
With all due respect, that was a dumb idea even back then......
It made sense in CT-Sen to push out Dodd because an easy win appeared to be there with Blumenthal.

Arkansas has a toast incumbent and Halter was worth a try.

But Reid always seemed like he might have a shot to come back later, with his massive war chest and known campaign skills and weak potential opponents.

And there was never anyone available who clearly fared better than Reid against the potential Republicans.  No one was going to have his money, and no one polled that great.  And a Reid retirement or potential serious primary challenge only would have encouraged more prominent Republicans to jump in.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It is possible, I think
That Jack Carter would have been a better candidate than Reid. I think we were all pretty clear back then, though, that he wasn't going to run.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
He wasn.'t going to beat Reid or run a fraction as good a campaign as Reid......
I don't know why people would still think anyone out there could fare better than Reid.  He's in a class by himself in his political ability.

Carter would be doing a lot worse than Reid right now.  So would any other Democrat.  No one could or would run as strong a campaign as Reid has.  No one would have had money to saturate the airwaves destroying Angle right after she won the primary.

Right now any other Nevada Democrat would be in Jack Conway's position, very competitive but clearly down, rather than in Reid's position, steamrolling Angle and clearly winning.

And no one could have beaten Reid in a primary.  He would have destroyed a serious effort by Carter or anyone else.

And if Reid retired, Dean Heller would be kicking our sacrificial nominee's ass by 15 right now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
No need to rub it in, n/t

[ Parent ]
No offense intended! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
The root question is why would even 9% of liberals vote for Angle
While it could be argued that some are actually libertarian, I suspect that some of it reflects the views those who believe in the DK diary that I linked.

I took advantage of the question to link to the DK diary and admit my error.

There are some liberals who are so angry at Reid that they'll vote for Angle. Fortunately (at this point in time), that number is fairly small, lower than say the numbers of "liberals" who voted for Bush in '04, per the CNN exit poll.

The smallness of the number reflects the degree to which Angle is out of the mainstream -- and Reid's ability to solidify that perception.

As for the rest of it, I do believe that your PoV on the topic, as you stated in your comments to the noted diary, has been proven correct. The speed of Reid's post-primary rise suggests that his attacks would have even worked (though more slowly) against Tarkanian or a pre-chickens for checkups Lowden.

[ Parent ]
lol, Sue Lowden.
now whenever I think about her, the chicken dance plays through my head.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That kind of crossover is there no matter what. David Duke won 4% of black voters...
...in the 1991 LA-Gov runoff against Edwin Edwards.

If 4% of black voters will vote for David Duke, then surely there are 9% of liberals who will vote against Harry Reid or for Sharron Angle.

People cast votes for all kinds of reasons, some of them very personal.  Among liberals it's not just voters who dislike him personally and/or prefer a different Majority Leader, but people who don't like him on a particular pet issue or who need him defeated to protect some pocketbook interest, notwithstanding their otherwise liberal politics.

And then there are just the vagaries of answering a robopoll.  There are just people who just press the wrong button on the telephone keypad.  After all, this is a robopoll.  I imagine you probably can't go back and "correct" an errant answer.  I was robopolled once, and I got one crack at every question.  Or there are people who aren't sure about their answer and just pick one, and would have picked a different answer in a different moment.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Why push Dodd with a primary?
The Connecticut papers I read at the time seemed to think that

(1)  Dodd would be vulnerable in the general, but that he could certainly keep the seat better than someone else after a contested primary.

(2)  Blumenthal was an obvious shoo-in replacement -- but would otherwise almost certainly have challenged Lieberman in the next cycle.

Was Dodd really worse than Lieberman, from a liberal perspective?

[ Parent ]
Back of envelope time
Assuming a 20/40/40 (D/M/R) distribution (it was 21/43/36 in '06)

Further assuming 5% to none of the above from liberals / conservatives, and 10% from moderates:

Liberals:      86/9/5   (Reid/Lowden/NOTA)
Moderates:     63/27/10
Conservatives: 15/80/5

That adds up to:

Reid:   48.4%
Angle:  44.6%
NOTA:    7.0%

I'm probably a bit high with NOTAs, but the round numbers speed back of envelope calculations.

[ Parent ]
PA-Sen Ras poll
That has me worried, although Toomey at least is well below 50%.  What have the other recent polls been saying?
Quinnipiac had 43-43
With likely voters as of last week. PPP found 41-41 last month. Either side of those dates and between are three Rasmussens all showing Toomey up 6-7 points.
[ Parent ]
Yup, Rasmussen is shit. Something to keep in mind, watch who MSNBC First Read...
...cites in polling.  Chuck Todd posted a couple weeks ago that on First Read they'll cite only polls they trust that also line up with private numbers.  So I now give special attention to any polls First Read cites, and they cited the PA-Sen Q-poll.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
PPP's sample was its second worst outlier from its other polls
Normally they have between 2% and 6% of Obama voters not showing up.  In Pennsylvania is was 22%.  If they used a smaple within their normal range (like they did in Ohio and Kentucky), that would have put Sestak up between 5 and 10%.

Most importantly, and objectively, within their sample the poll showed Sestak running better than Obama did in 2008.  That's the key thing, Sestak gets net more McCain voters than Tommey gets Obamas.... so it all comes down to turnout.

If PPPs PA poll is accurate, Sestak wins if 21% or less Obama voters don't show up, and Toomey wins if 23% or more Obama voters don't show up.

[ Parent ]
i have no idea who is undecided in pa-sen

Sestak and toom have both run statewide races in the past.  Ironically both were primaries against specter.  I guess people are waiting to see if toom is sufficiently to the center...maybe the same with Sestak.
[ Parent ]
Do
not worry at all. It is a Rasmussen and should not be something to worry over. If it was PPP or a reputable pollster then yeah but Scotty is full of it. I am not saying Toomey can't win but I doubt he is up by seven points. I think it is more than likely a tie.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Scotty's
Rasmussen's numbers are not that far off PPP's numbers for the race.

Pennsylvania races rarely have two candidates who are at the polar opposites of the spectrum.  Typically there is an ideologue and a moderate or two moderates.  I wonder how this will play out.

The last time we had a conservative and a progressive was 1994 when Santorum beat Wofford.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I
was under the impression that the last PPP and Quinnipiac poll both had it tied. Toomey could have a slight lead at this point but I do not think it is a seven point lead at all. That is just Rasmussen being Rasmussen. Sestak may be too liberal for PA but Toomey is too conservative I would think. It will be an interesting race for sure.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Within the 3.5 MOE
The race is within the 3.5 MOE.

The thing I take from these polls, Rasmussen and the others, is that there has been little movement in Pennsylvania for a long time.  Other than the weird Rasmussen poll right after the primary that had Sestak at 46 percent, he has been steady in the high 30s and Toomey has been around the low to mid 40s.

Seeing people in the state rarely choose between a conservative and a progressive, they are probably helpless on this one.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
It would be awesome to see...
...where geographically the undecideds were.  Dare to dream I know.

But seriously, between 15-20 undecided tells me either people are really waiting to hear their respective plans for the future (unlikely) or people are in vacation mode.

[ Parent ]
Vacation plus undecided
I think its vacation mode coupled with people do not know how to choose between a progressive and a conservative in Pennsylvania.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Ironically
Both will be "moderated-d" by election day.
[ Parent ]
Surely they will
Toomey is having fundraisers with one of the gals from Maine and Sestak soon will be bitterly clinging to a gun and Bible in some town in rural PA with one stop light.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Curious
how is SEPA/Philadelphia thought of in rural PA? I don't think Sestak would play well in rural PA if everyone there thinks SEPA/Philadelphia is some "godless liberal freak zone."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Rural v. Philly
I lived in rural southwestern PA for a number of years.  Specifically Greene County for those familiar with western Pennsylvania.  People there really have no clue what goes on east of the mountains.  People there have a greater connection to Cleveland and Columbus than they do to Harrisburg, Lancaster or Philadelphia.

I go back to visit family occasionally.  The questions I get are interesting.  I think most people do not have an opinion either way of southeastern Pennsylvania.  I commuted last summer to the city for a legal internship and people were amazed I could just hop on a train and take 25 minutes to get to work.  

Having lived in both regions, I really do not think its fair to classify them politically.  Western Pennsylvania is liberal in different ways.  For example, it has far less of a law and order mentality, which is very dominant in southeastern Pennsylvania.  Additionally, local government tends to be more fiscally conservative in southeastern Pennsylvania.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
LOL
The one thing that Sestak has going for him is his military background.  Its much harder to paint a military Dem as soft on gun rights than someone without the military background.
[ Parent ]
No offense
but Kerry/McCain had military backgrounds and the GOP spin machine tore them to shreds.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Not in Pennsylvania
Also, more to the point, neither lost because of guns.

Kerry lost based on being flip floppy, voting before/voting against and so forth.

I don't recall when the GOP tore McCain down for guns either.

[ Parent ]
Kerry wasn't flip floppy
he was attacked that way by the Bush campaign, though. I really don't like the "so-and-so lost because of ____" game because I don't think there's really any way of knowing. Swift Boat was probably a contributor too.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Actually they have had that choice
They did so in the 2000, 2004, and 2008 Presidential elections.

You are right however, that there is rarely such a clear choice in statewide (non-Prez) elections.  It is usually between a moderate Republican and a socially conservative Democrat.  Santorum and Rendell broke that mold, although Santorum was actually slightly less conservative on economics than a movement conservative, and Rendell was more conservative on economics than a traditional liberal.

[ Parent ]
State Legislatures and Redistricting
Iowa has nonpartisan redistricting, so as much as I like generic Democrats over generic Republicans, a flip here shouldn't have a significant redistricting impact.

Seems to me, though, that a flip in PA could be a disaster. Republicans strongly control the state Senate and their candidate is leading for governor. Without a seat at the table, redistricting PA could be really bad news.

So for those looking for multiplier effects for their candidate donations, investing in competitive races in PA would fit the bill. Same for Ohio.

Some good news. Check out Gallup's latest 2010 Generic Poll
Democrats up by 6% among registered voters.

I'm a little suspect of the poll as Rasmussen and PPP show very different numbers and I don't think it will last, but I'll take it.

It flips back and forth so much
I am not getting too excited. Having said that the PPP tie is LV so if that is accurate you would expect a Dem RV lead of something very similiar to the new Gallup.
[ Parent ]
Good News
PPP says Florida voters want Crist to caucus with Team Blue. 43-37 overall and with the voters who are actually supporting him it is 55-22.  

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

That's decisive
He cant snub the people actually voting for him
[ Parent ]
Not to mention he could still have potential as a Dem
on the national ticket.  He's dead to the GOP.
[ Parent ]
His best strategy at this point
is to throw the GOP under the bus the way the GOP has thrown him under their bus.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
He can't yet
He will lose some independents and moderate Repubs if he announces that he will certainly caucus with the Dems.  Crist's best strategy is to remain coy until election day, and give coded hints to Dems that he would caucus with the them.  For example, he might have a major Dem supporter "leak" that Crist would "certainly" caucus with the Dems.
[ Parent ]
From PPP:
Reid is ahead 64-28 with moderate voters and 68% of moderates view her as extreme.  When PPP polled this earlier on, Reid only led 51-41 amongst moderates against Lowden.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

WV Lawmakers Reach Agreement on special election
http://www.dailymail.com/News/...
Based on the law, I fully expect Shelley Moore Capito to run now. She can run for re-election and the special election at the same time. I think that was the only reason she wouldn't run. Her attacks on Manchin are not the words of someone who does not want to run against him.  
Its
definitely possible Capito could be the victor in a match up against Manchin. Its happened before. Then Governor Jerry Brown was beaten by San Diego mayor and future Governor Pete Wilson in 1982 for an open senate seat.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Brown was not popular in '82... not a good analogy
Brown was pretty unpopular in '82 and GOPers were licking their chops to beat him.  CA was a lot more Republican then too, nothing like it is today.  

Manchin just needs to stress he is his own man, and not take anything for granted.    

BTW, why was this compromise necessary?  Don't the Dems have a solid majority of both WV houses?  

[ Parent ]
No chance, Brown never had Manchin's popularity......
Manchin is no Jerry Brown 1982 or Martha Coakley 2009-10.  He's a Governor with job approvals in the 70s, and he's a household name in the state.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I suspect the better comparison for Manchin is
John Hoeven, ND, Senator almost elect.

It remains to be seen whether Capito could do anything more than pull Manchin into Blumenthal territory.

[ Parent ]
Difference
Manchin is a Democrat in a Conservative state in a Republican year. Hoeven is a Republican in a Republican state in a Republican year. Manchin (if Capito runs) has a much stronger opponent. Also, Manchin's never had a real race since his first run for Governor in the 1990's. I think he could end up like Evan Bayh if Capito decides to run. She needs to announce before him though.  
[ Parent ]
Nate supports your position
[ Parent ]
Um, no, you're not making any sense at all......
What does the Bayh reference mean?  That Manchin might not run?  Capito is not a fraction as strong enough to scare off Manchin.  He's going to run, period.  He's wanted a Senate seat for forever and a day, and he's not going to be scared to go after it when he's sitting on 70% job approval as a sitting Governor.

I have no doubt Capito will run now that she can run for reelection simultaneously.  And I have no doubt Manchin will crush her, and she'll be back in her House seat afterward.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Manchin and Bayh
Are a lot alike. They've both only ever really had one competitive race in their lives. Bayh was for SoS, Manchin for Gov in his first run in the 1990's. After that, he walked into the SoS office and then the gov's mansion. He may not want a competitive race. He could holdout for a cabinet appointment in 2012, or a pres race in 2016, or sen in 2014, when he would be able to walk in without Capito.  
[ Parent ]
The GOP's tactic
The GOP's tactic here needs to be making Manchin out to be the potential deciding vote for Senate Majority Leader.  If they do this, they have a good chance.  If not, Manchin is there for life.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Even then
I just don't see what Capito's statewide appeal is.  I mena her career is basically started by her father's legacy in the district and now her name comes up every cycle since she really is the only Republican in WV.  

There is really nothing that anyone can point to that says she is strong statewide.  Heck she's even pro-choice, so a pro-life Dem could turn that issue around.

I also doubt that Senate Majority leader matters to WV.  They want their pork and they get that by going with someone likely to win and stay in power forever.  That's more liekly to be Manchin than Capito based on the Dem tilt in the state's congressional delegation in the past.

[ Parent ]
Not for that
I don't think independents care about that. Even Conservadems probably want a Dem majority leader since they don't really know who it would be. They need to tie him to Cap and Trade and HCR.  
[ Parent ]
Attacking
him on cap and trade would be highly ineffective and would likely backfire as the coal community LOVES Manchin and he is very much against it. Even his seat warmer has already came out firmly against it. So that could not work period. I am not sure where he stands on HCR but in PA-12 when Burns attacked Critz comparing him to Pelosi and HCR it did not work and I do not think it is the best strategy in the world. West Virginia is similar territory and they seem perfectly happy to support a conservative Democrat like Manchin.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
HCR
Manchin supported HCR.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Evidence for this?
I haven't heard or read that Manchin took a stand on this issue.
[ Parent ]
Link
http://www.dailymail.com/News/...

This is an interesting article saying how he supports health care reform, but angers liberals on other issues.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
Difference
Critz opposed HCR, Manchin did not. Manchin has appeared many times with Obama, and campaigned for him. Critz was never seen with Obama.  
[ Parent ]
Why exactly do you presume Capito to be competitive
She's only run races in the most Republican part of the state right?  Why exactly do we believe she is a great statewide candidate?  Has she ever run a statewide race?

Say what you want about Manchin not having to compete, but 70% of the people in the state voted for him for governor.  That means something at some point.

[ Parent ]
Reasons
High name rec in a small state, she is popular statewide, and she comes from the most populous part of the state.  
[ Parent ]
How is she popular statewide
What's the polling evidence?  Is she more popular than Manchin?  Has she ever run statewide?

Its just plain silly what you're purporting here.  Certainly in comparison to Manchin.

[ Parent ]
You don't have to be
The most popular to be popular. There has been no polling of WV since 2008 (other than Rasmussen, which shows her with 59% favorability rating) Its not silly. Your the silly one for thinking someone can't be popular just because they aren't the most popular.  
[ Parent ]
You're really pulling your hope out of your ass on this one......
It's publicly acknowledged that Manchin badly wants to be a U.S. Senator.  Period.  Now there's an open seat, and he's got 70% job approval as Governor.

And you're trying to argue based on nothing that he'll be scared off by Capito?  That's just absurd.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Im not saying he def will
But its a possibility. He just seems to me like someone who doesn't want a competitive race, like we have seen so many Dems this yr that never had a competitive race before running away.  
[ Parent ]
Do
you have any evidence or is it just a hunch? I see no reason to believe that Manchin will not run. If he did not plan on running he would not have appointed a placeholder, it would have been Rahall or Tamblin. Bayh may have not ran do to him afraid of having a competitive race but personally I think it is because he wants to run for Governor in 2012, there was rumors he was thinking of a 2012 run as early as 2008. While Capito is the best candidate you guys could get she will not pose much a threat, but if you guys want to waste money on her then be my guest. I know I will not complain.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Just a wrong hunch
He's announcing tomorrow at 10 AM. I doubt he'd have a time and all set to announce he's not running. I think Capito could make it competitive. I think the NRSC will do some message testing and see if their attacks will work. If they seem effective, I think they will play here. If they don't, I think they pull out unless Capito makes it close by running a great (or Manchin running a terrible) campaign.  
[ Parent ]
Do
you have a link on the ten am press conference? Thanks in advance.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Link
[ Parent ]
What is the evidence?
That "he doesn't want a competitive race"?  Just because he hasn't had one doesn't mean he doesn't want one.  What races has Manchin avoided that might have been competitive?

Also, what politician wouldn't choose an easy race over a hard one?

This is really a baffling line of thinking.  

[ Parent ]
No eveidence
If you read, you'd know that it was just a hunch. You don't need evidence when you have a hunch. Thats what a hunch is.
[ Parent ]
yyou never said hunch
When talking about him not wanting a competitive race.  That point you tried to prove using his electoral history.  Re-read your own posts and you'll see what I was getting at.
[ Parent ]
Yes i did
Look up a few. Look at hoosierdem's post at 11:44 and mine at 11:52.  
[ Parent ]
Look at 9:26 LOL
C'mon, "hunch" came up as soon as Manchin announced his press conference.
[ Parent ]
3 generic Congressional ballots released today: D+6, R+9, Tie
Drawing conclusions from guessing, errr polling, reaches the point of absurdity.

Rasmussen is 15 points different than Gallup.  It's as if they didn't poll the same species.  But at least it is getting easier to pin Rasmussen down... in broad strokes he appears to be projecting an electorate where about 25% of Obama voters do not vote nationwide, over and above the normal differences between presidential and off years.

Schweitzer
I expect Denny Rehberg to run against Jon Tester in 2012. That would leave MT-AL open, and running there would make sense for Schweitzer until one of the Senate seats opens up.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
Would be a good mvoe for Schweitzer
I wish he was better environmentally.  I'd love to put him in the Cabinet as Interior Secretary so we can get Salazar back as Senator in Colorado instead of Romanoff/Bennett.  I don't think Slazar would have been as beatable as those 2 appear to be.
[ Parent ]
meh....
I was really never impressed with Salazar as a Senator. However I have really not been that impressed with his tenure as Interior Secretary either. I am also not sure if Salazar would be doing a lot better either, possibly a bit but he would still have to work his ass off to a second term. When I think of Salazar I always think meh.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He was not a Senator very long
I mean which Senators are you excited about after less than a full term.  

I still think he'd be in a substantially better position than Bennett and Romanoff, and I doubt he'd be getting primaried either.  But I could be wrong.

[ Parent ]
Just as blah as Bennet
He'd most assuredly be primaried, at least if Coloradans judge him by his previous Senate experience.  He'd probably win, but Sen. Bennet probably will too.  I'd vote for Salazar grudgingly (though I've been happier with him at Interior than I'd expected I would have been) but it seems you have forgotten the Mike Miles challenge.  Miles only got 40%, but he was a serious unknown.  Recruit a strong center-left candidate and he goes down.  Remember how much of the electorate is in the Denver/Boulder corridor...

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
You think he's done a bad time as Interior Sec?
Come to Louisiana. If you want to see one person that's hated here as bad as Obama, its him.
[ Parent ]
I agree
He has not been the best interior sec in my view as well. He was not exactly a great Senator either. I wonder if Tony Knowles would have been better.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Great move for him
He'd walk into the seat. It would also keep him relevant into 2014 when Bacchus would retire.  
[ Parent ]
I
still like the idea of Tester running for Governor and him running for Tester's seat. He is a very high profile Governor and Congressman would be too much of a down grade for him I think. That is still a positive for you as XXXX could simply run in 2014.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Oops
For some reason I had trouble thinking of Rehberg's name so I wrote XXXX intending to google it but I accidentally posted it too soon.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Were you trying to spell Baucus wrong lol
Bacchus is the Roman god of Wine I believe.
[ Parent ]
woops!
Yeah, messed up. Bacchus is the name of a Mardi Gras parade too, the one Drew Brees was in.
[ Parent ]
Doesn't he want to run for President though?
I don't know, but I'd imagine that, in 2016, "Fmr Governor Brian Schweitzer" might sound better than "Congressman Schweitzer," even if only marginally. Just a thought though.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
No, he needs to be in the Senate to run for President......
Former Governor of a small, isolated, remote state like Montana doesn't cut it.  He'd have no way to keep up his profile in a way that the national media or Iowa or New Hampshire or South Carolina voters would take him seriously.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Maybe
Replacing Tim Kaine as DNC chair? He is a former DGA chair
[ Parent ]
You mean like being a governor of a small, poor state
like Arkansas made Bill Clinton one of the "smurfs" who had no chance to defeat George HW Bush, eh? :-)

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I knew someone would say that, but it's not the same......
Clinton had strong personal charisma that Schweitzer doesn't have.  Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar who could relate very well outside his humble Arkansas roots.  Schweitzer's persona comes off as much more limited to his rural western roots.

I think it would take a lot longer for Schweitzer to learn to be a national candidate than it took Clinton.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Republicans will, probably,
gain a majority in Pennsylvania House - they need only 3-seat gain, which is not too difficult in good year and with rather popular governor candidate as a flagbearer. In Iowa Democrats may hold by the teeth.
Iowa
may not have partisan redistricting but I'll be glad to see the Dems hold either chamber or both because that delays the Republicans from pushing an anti-gay-marriage constitutional amendment. The longer that's delayed, the better.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Minnick rejects Tea Party endorsement
From Politico:

[...]"Since the Tea Party Express refuses to reject and rebuke Mr. Williams, I have no choice but to decline your endorsement," Minnick wrote, adding that he hopes the group eventually sees "the error of its ways."

Williams sparked a furor last week when he posted a "satirical" letter from NAACP head Ben Jealous to President Abraham Lincoln.

"We Colored People have taken a vote and decided that we don't cotton to that whole emancipation thing. Freedom means having to work for real, think for ourselves, and take consequences along with the rewards," the letter said. "That is just far too much to ask of us Colored People and we demand that it stop!"

[...]Minnick was careful to highlight his support from local tea party groups in Idaho but argued leaders need to be held to a higher standard. "My interaction with the grassroots Tea Party movement here in Idaho has been very positive. I find the vast majority of their members to be cordial, polite and sincere," he wrote.[...]

(1) I just have no words to express how disgusting and repugnant Williams' blatant, unreconstructed racism is.
(2) Very smartly played by Minnick. It makes perfect sense for him to appeal for the votes of individual tea partiers while condemning shamelessly bigoted statements that are highly publicized.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

Good for Minnick
if he loses because he rejected racism it will be a sad day for America.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
MA Dem Chair has heart attack
http://www.boston.com/news/loc...
Delayed reaction the the Martha Coakley campaign?
Lets hope he gets well soon.  
the good news
according to the article, it was a mild heart attack and he'll be fine with some rest.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
All the NRSC needs in WV
http://blogs.wvgazette.com/coa...
I could be off, but this could be as effective as Dems showing pics of Palin with Crist, and Sestak showing Specter with Bush. I may be wrong, but Obama's pretty unpopular there...
So how'd that work out for you
in PA-12?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yup, Republicans never learn that attacking Obama/Reid/Pelosi doesn't work......
Poor GOPVoter and other Repubs here, they're desperately grasping at straws in WV-Sen special.

And I really don't get it.  This is a reality-based community, you'd think regulars here, even Republican regulars, would wise up.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Oh, and further deflating GOPVoter, Capito might be too scared to run!......
MSNBC First Read today:

"Moore Capito is expected to announce whether she will run later this week... The filing deadline for the special election is this Friday at 5 PM." Moore's calculation is more than just dealing with the possibility of losing to Manchin; she may have to worry about a contested primary. It's not as easy of a decision as it may look to some non-West Virginian political junkies.

So, it's Capito, not Manchin, who is scared of a competitive race......and just in the primary!

LOL!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
She may also just prefer to be governor
Who knows.
[ Parent ]
She'd facwe a self-funder
Thats why. Also, after a self-funded primary opponent forces her to spend money, she wouldn't be able to beat Manchin. Also, Critz distanced himelf from Obama, opposing every major Democratic policy. Manchin has nt done that. Critz never appeared with Obama. Manchin has.  
[ Parent ]
You're predictable: wash, rinse, repeat the same talking points......
Republicans ran ad after ad after ad tying Critz to Democratic leadership, and Critz won in a walk.

And why don't you ask Charlie Crist how much it hurts in a general election to "appear with Obama"?  Not so much, it turns out.

But please, please, do write letters to GOP strategists insisting that attacking Obama will win elections.  It's worked so well all this time!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
NC-02: Ellmers not showing signs of life
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

No offense, GOPVOTER, but you got too excited about this race (unless I am misremembering your reaction in which case, my bad). Yes, some Dems got overexcited about Rob Miller, but at least he raised a crapton of money and gave Joe Wilson a close race in 2008.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

I did
I never expected her to win unless she really raised a ton (which I didnt see happening). I just really liked her as a candidate and the Etheridge thing helped.  
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 7/19 (Afternoon Edition) | 139 comments

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