Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 7/16 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Fri Jul 16, 2010 at 8:09 AM EDT


  • FL-Sen: Charlie Crist raised $1.8 million last quarter - better than Kendrick Meek, but quite a bit behind Marco Rubio's stellar pace. Still, considering there was a chance that Crist's fundraising could take a major hit after his party switch, this strikes me as a pretty decent haul.

  • NV-Sen: Sharron Angle teabagged up quite a haul in the second quarter, taking in $2.6 million (with $2.3 million of that coming in the last six weeks or so, according to Aaron Blake). Even though she outraised Harry Reid, Jon Ralston points out that the Majority Leader has quite a bit more cash on hand than the Crazy Lady of Clown Town: $9 mil to $1.8 mil.

  • CO-Gov: The WSJ has a good piece gaming out the options for the GOP in terms of getting Scott McInnis out of the race, none of them particularly good. They can try to get both McInnis and rival Dan Maes to drop out and offer up a replacement candidate; they can hope McInnis wins the Aug. 10 primary and then push him to drop out; or they can put forward a write-in candidate in the primary. Maes is going nowhere, so option #1 is out, and a write-in at this late stage seems almost impossible. So perhaps their best bet is to ride McInnis for a few more weeks and then kick him to the curb. Good luck with that! Meanwhile, the RGA slammed earlier reports that it was abandoning McInnis, but as Mike Memoli points out, they didn't mention McInnis's name once in their press release.

  • NH-01: Former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta has been trying to paint himself as a peerless opponent of the stimulus, but it turns out that last year, he was complaining about the slow pace at which the state was collecting stimulus funds from the federal government. This problematic stance is getting some renewed attention now because of emails released by the state AG's office, which include a note from - of all people - GOP senate candidate Kelly Ayotte calling Guinta a "grandstander." Heh.

  • NH-02: I guess you'd have to say that Katrina Swett is objectively in favor of repealing gay marriage in the state of New Hampshire. A piece in the Nashua Telegraph is casting a renewed spotlight on the fact that Swett says she only supports civil unions, not marriage equality. That's a pretty strange position to take in a Democratic primary, especially considering that same-sex marriage is already the law of the land in the Granite State. Fortunately, she's not running for the state legislature - and hopefully this will help sink her Liebermanesque candidacy.

  • SC-05: Biden alert! The VPOTUS with the mostest is coming to Columbia on July 23rd to dedicate the Ernest Hollings Library at the University of South Carolina (named after the retired senator, a Biden pal). He'll also squeeze in a fundraiser with Rep. John Spratt.

  • TN-09: Willie Herenton, will you please go home now? Harold Ford, Sr., who used to hold this seat, has cut a radio ad for Rep. Steve Cohen, whom he's been backing over ex-Memphis mayor Willie Herenton. With Ford and President Obama in Cohen's corner, you've got to wonder who exactly Herenton is hoping will power him to victory.
    		•
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/16 (Morning Edition)
    Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
    Print Friendly View Send As Email

    SSP Daily Digest: 7/16 (Morning Edition) | 49 comments
    LVRJ/Mason-Dixon Poll Just Came Out:
    Reid is ahead 44-37!  http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    A mix of luck and a great campaign staff made Reid the comeback kid.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!

    This is pure luck
    and not unwelcome.

    If every Republican were like Sharron Angle, Dems would have veto-proof margins in both chambers of Congress.  

    [ Parent ]
    Not all luck.
    In March, Reid hired veteran campaign staffer Kelly Steele, a bulldog campaigner whose tasked with "vaporizing" the opponent. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    Not luck, but skill. Reid's skill. They engineered this going back pre-primary......
    The Reid campaign and allies worked actively to bring down Lowden hoping it would benefit Angle.  They wanted Angle all along.  A common joke post-primary was, "Who won the Republican Senate primary?...answer:  Harry Reid."

    And everything post-primary was just as engineered.  The ads didn't literally write themselves, good ads take hard work, and Reid's attack ads are the best anywhere.  The allied group Patriot Majority has been just as good.  The biggest challenge was actually deciding which of the huge volume of material available against Angle to use first, and the choices of social security, Medicare, and jobs were smart.  Reid's own positive ads about helping save City Center and bring money for geothermal jobs really helped set the foundation for the new attack against Angle who says it wouldn't be her job as Senator to bring jobs to Nevada.  It would have been fun and easy to focus on hot-button issues that appeal to the base, like Angle's opposition to abortion even for rape or incest, or her coded threat and encouragement of violence through "Second Amendment remedies."  But Reid was smart and played instead to the middle, not the Democratic base.  People care most about the economy and job creation, and contrasting Reid's effort to create Nevada jobs against Angle's refusal to serve that way really touches the concerns of indies and soft partisans in a way that abortion and inflammatory rhetoric do not.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    There is no need to play to the Democratic base
    when you have Sharron Angle to do it for you.  Even a Ben Nelson type would get the enthusiastic support of the Democratic left against Sharron Angle.
    [ Parent ]
    Ugh, the thought of having to vote for Nelson
    Because his opponent was that awful just sent a shiver down my spine.  
    [ Parent ]
    Blah
    I'll take Nelson over most of the caucus.

    He does a fine job representing his state.

    For years we've criticized the GOP for it's inability to attract moderates.

    Now that we're the party in power, there are those of us who forgot exactly who got us there.

    [ Parent ]
    I
    don't care about him being moderate, although he is conservative not so much moderate. I just think the whole cornhusker kickback was disgusting and speaks a lot of his character.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Bingo!
    It's not being a moderate, it's sabotaging your party.  
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    and unemployment benefits as well. I mean are you kidding me, that is an easy vote, and anyone who is Democratic would vote for it conservative or not, heck 43 percent of Republicans favor extending them. Every vote since health care has been him trying to get revenge for the bad press he brought on himself. He abused the process and made all of us and health care reform in general look bad. All of the talks of backroom deals and such originated with Nelson's tricks. I can honestly say that I would support Landrieu, Gene Taylor, Lincoln, Marshall and even Bobby Bright but I do not know if I could support Ben Nelson.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    There is zero luck
    in letting Republicans self-destruct.

    He also would be leading Lowden... and the dumbass Republicans kicked to the curb their dull third place finisher, who could be leading Reid.

    Again, this phenomenon is playing out in several places... "energized" Republicans put up unelectable candidates that can even bring a dead corpse like Lazarus Reid back to life.

    [ Parent ]
    Wow!
    While we should not automatically think this one is in the bag as it is not impossible for Angle to make a comeback as November is a ways away but I will admit things look GREAT. I am trying to find the thread but I seem to remember having something bordering a fight with a fellow user who insisted that this race was Likely R. I know I should not gloat but I do feel better. I will confess I had this at Leans R for the longest of time. To think Lowden fucked up what looked like a sure thing as Senator over an idiotic comment regarding chickens. I am sure that it will haunt her forever. Can anyone remember an incumbent Senator go from were Reid is in the polls (trailing high double digits) to winning. I can't remember any in the last decade or so, I am sure it is rare. Perhaps Virginia in 94, I am not sure. Congrats Senator, and Republicans you knew what you were getting so when Reid gets another term it is your own fault.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    One time
     Some friends and I were talking about how people traded items as currency a long time ago. I piped up and said, "There is this lady named Sue Lowden who thinks we should trade healthcare for chickens." One of my friends said, "I do not get it." Neither did most of the primary voters in Nevada.

    for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




    17, CA-06,  

    [ Parent ]
    When I read this article
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07...
    But in reality, patients have had to pay their doctors with cash, cigarettes, alcohol and food since the 1990s, the 50-page report said.

    I thought of Sue Lowden...

    [ Parent ]
    I
    have said since about this time last year that once the Republicans finally picked a nominee they would see a drastic spike in fundraising. The Republicans hate Reid with a passion and it should not shock anyone. It is not at all surprising, in fact the only thing that is slightly surprising is the low haul. I honestly expected more, I think earlier this year I predicted something over 3 mil. I suppose Angle's nuttiness could be hurting her numbers (fundraising and polling).  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    Angle's fundraising doesn't help her, she's in too deep a hole......
    Angle has completely lost control of her public image to an extent she can't recover.  And the reality is that her public image is an honest picture of who and what she really is, so she can't run from it.  It's too late for her to fabricate some kind of alternate persona that has any chance of fooling anyone.

    That leaves Angle's only option to attack Reid, but the problem she has there is the same problem all the pundits pointed to Reid having himself:  he's universally known, people's opinions of him are very inelastic.  That supposedly hurt Reid before, but now that he's winning, it hurts Angle instead.  All she can really do is try to identify and remind voters of the reasons they dislike Reid.  But she's shown no ability to do that.

    Angle's first ad was awful, trying to tie Reid to the general bad state of the Nevada and national economy.  It failed even before that in inexplicably wasting a bundle of money on a 60-second spot that would've been no worse at a much cheaper 30 seconds, and then having no narration so that most viewers won't even notice the ad, and they'd have to buy far more airtime than for a narrated ad to make sure the same number of eyeballs see it.  But on top of all that, the ad never tied Reid specifically to any of the state's or country's problems.

    American Crossroads, Karl Rove's surrogate group, has a new ad out now that attacks Reid for failing to bring stimulus dollars to Nevada.  On the surface this might be OK, but the problem is it contradicts the right-wing attack narrative opposing the stimulus altogether.  Of course it fits with Republican hypocrisy, as they routinely attack the stimulus while trying to get stimulus money for their districts and states.  But putting this on TV really means attacking the stimulus itself is off the table.  A good attack narrative has to make sense to ordinary voters on its face, there can't be nuance or exceptions or whatnot.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I agree with all of this and yet...
    I don't think the idea of a Angle comeback is completely out of the question, given that Reid is stuck at around 43 percent. From my perspective, though, for Angle to comeback she would have to become someone other than who she is, which is not impossible for most politicians but seems impossible for her.  
    [ Parent ]
    Ditto
    Reid's inability to break 43% still gives me pause.  The None of the Above option might be the insurance policy though.
    [ Parent ]
    bingo
    That little nugget of a ballot line is going to really help us out here
    [ Parent ]
    But Reid's not stuck, he's been inching up consistently......
    He was stuck around 40 up until July, in the 38-42 range with one outlier exception last December.

    Now he's at 43-44 in 4 straight polls by 4 different pollsters, counting the "mystery poll" Jon Ralston claims had "nearly identical numbers" to the Patriot Majority poll leaked earlier this week that has Reid up 44-40.

    And Reid's favorabiilty numbers have inched up, too.  M-D still has him underwater at 37-46, but they had him at a much worse 35-52 in early June.  Patriot Majority had him at 45-52, with few undecideds, in the poll earlier this week, and they even gave Angle a generous 40-41, compared to M-D's brutal 33-43.

    I do think Reid has slightly rehabilitated is image, and he's definitely lifted his vote share rather, not just dragged down Angle.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen: Blumenthal up 17, McMahon beating Simmons 2-to-1
    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129...

    This poll's actually a mild improvement for McMahon. Her favorable rating is no longer upside down and Blumenthal's pull among Republicans is weakening. Of course, she's still in pretty dire shape overall.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    I like this fact
    Gov. Jodi Rell gets a 60 - 32 percent approval, one of her lowest scores ever.

    Thats is freaky popular.  
    [ Parent ]
    NH-02
    It probably has to do with the really random fact that Katrina Swett is Mormon. Even I was a little bit surprised when I found out, considering she was raised by a Jewish Holocaust survivor (Tom Lantos) and lives in New Hampshire. Still, I can't think of a better explanation for why she would have such a weird out-of-step position on a social issue that's been increasingly less relevant since 2004.

    Of course, it probably also has something to do with Katrina Swett having the worst political instincts of any Democratic candidate this side of George McGovern, but I think the Mormonism partly explains the neither here-nor-there position this late in the game. (And at least McGovern was liberal)

    id really hope its bc she's Mormon
    It is quickly becoming taboo to be against gay marriage and be running in a Dem primary for a Dem district that is mainly white and urban.  Soon enough a position like hers will be all but a disqualification from the race.
    [ Parent ]
    NH-02 (and NH-01)
    Essentially no one in New Hampshire cares about Mormonism. While that might explain her oddball position on some issue, religious affiliation is generally far more important to conservatives/Republicans than it is to liberals/Democrats.

    Charlie Bass is a name people there recognize moreso than Katrina Swett, and Republican voters are more enthusiastic in general and about their candidate than Democratic voters are about either and I think that's driving why we're almost certainly going to lose this seat in November. The frustrating bit is that Bass is one of those guys who everyone assumes is a centrist even though there's not much in his record of 12 years in the House, other than the absence of fiery rhetoric, on which to base that belief.  

    What chance we have at holding onto the other seat in the Granite State, in theory the more Republican-leaning one, stems from the fact that we have an incumbent who's better liked among Democratic base voters.    

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03

    [ Parent ]
    Debunked
    Swett issued a statement clarifying that she fully backs New Hampshire marriage equality. The sticking point now has been her reluctance to openly and specifically state that she is in favor of federal marriage equality (she has only stated a position in favor of federal civil unions).
    [ Parent ]
    BREAKING NEWS
    The AP reports former Manchin aide Carte Goodwin will be the next Senator from WV. I was rooting for Barth but at least its not his wife.

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    Link
    http://www.whsv.com/westvirgin...

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    WV
    How he did not pick Caperton or Barth is beyond me.  I fully support Manchin, but why do something like this and appoint someone so close to you?  I guess he was the only one who would promise not to run?


    29/D/Male/NY-01
    [ Parent ]
    To
    be completely honest I did not think Caperton was the best choice as he lives in New York now and that could possibly hurt Manchin's image. Unless Manchin knows something we don't Barth did seem like the perfect candidate. However Goodwin is rather vanilla and no one is going to be upset over his appointment and alls well that ends well I suppose.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Barth seemed too good to be true
    She seemed like she would have not bent down to coal as much as Manchin would have liked, she would have been more independent and liberal. Possibly would have run against Manchin if he decided to go against the Democratic Part too much.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
    [ Parent ]
    IDK
    She seemed to be the absolute best candidate but alas we can't always get what we want but we can get what we need (Sorry I love the Rolling Stones). Goodwin is not the perfect appointee but he is uncontroversial and is not going to hurt Manchin's chances.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    "Uncontroversial and won't hurt Manchin" are all that matter......
    This temporary appointment needs to be simply a seat-warmer who quietly votes with the Democrats in committee and on the floor for a few months while staff manage the office and constituent services.

    Putting in someone who might be more likely than Goodwin to try to make news, automatically also creates the risk of creating bad news.  Caperton and Barth are more likely to try to make news, the former driven by knowing his own personal stature, and the latter because of her possible future electoral designs.

    Manchin just needs someone who WV voters forget is even there.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Now
    I should point out that I am straight but I think we have a contender for hottest Senator (We once had a very long open thread discussion of the hottest people in Washington).

    http://blogs.wvgazette.com/squ...

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Not a chance...
    Doesn't hold a candle to Scott Brown, even when Brown has clothes on. Although, I will reserve final judgement for Goodwin's Playgirl pic.  
    [ Parent ]
    Please
    Brown has all of that fur, his playgirl shot made him look like an out of work porn star, most certainly not a hottie. I should probably for your sake and my own emphasize that I am in fact straight.    

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, I read it the first time...
    ... gay men actually like the manly look that Brown and his fur have. At least this one does. '70's porn is still the best, BTW.

    For the record, I wouldn't kick Goodwin out of bed either, unless it was to make room for Brown.  

    [ Parent ]
    I
    am not really sure what to say to that. I'll take your word for it.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Sure your straight?
    I j/k. Kirsten Gillibrand is still hottest senator though. This guy is runner up, and then Brown. There are no hot female Senators other than Gillibrand.  
    [ Parent ]
    She's
    not bad. Nothing on Mary Landrieu of course. :p  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    I know your joking
    How do people think she is hot? she is soooo freakin ugly!  
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    I was kidding. I knew it would tick you off. I would not say that she is ugly, she is not attractive but not ugly all the same.

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Whatever, she's still the hottest Senator

    [ Parent ]
    She's beat by
    Gillibrand (who has lost 40 lbs!), Thune, Cantwell, Scott Brown, Goodwin, Hutchison, Boxer, Feinsten, Michael Bennet, Lincoln, LeMieux, Collins, and Klobuchar. (not in order). She was attractive in her younger days, but she's aged bad and put on a ton of weight.  
    [ Parent ]
    She's beat by
    Gillibrand (who has lost 40 lbs!), Thune, Cantwell, Scott Brown, Goodwin, Hutchison, Boxer, Feinsten, Michael Bennet, Lincoln, LeMieux, Collins, and Klobuchar. (not in order). She was attractive in her younger days, but she's aged bad and put on a ton of weight.  
    [ Parent ]
    My pick: Gillibrand.
    She's the most striking, IMHO.

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
    So little time, so much to know!
    [ Parent ]
    Different looks for different folks, or...
       
      show some love for the dark haired ladies. I still think Senator Cantwell is gorgeous, and Klobuchar is really cute, too.
       Of course the usual disclaimer: What really matters is how they do their jobs and their votes in the Senate. I used to have a big crush on Maria Cantwell when she was first elected to the House (she served one term, elected in '92, defeated in '94). Part of it back then was that it was cool to see someone my age in the Congress. After she voted for NAFTA my ardor cooled and I forgot about her until she won her first Senate election by 2200 votes to cause the 50-50 tie in the Senate after the 2000 elections. Then she was hot again...

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
    [ Parent ]
    Brown would be the better lay
    Because you know you are doing something totally unnatural, unethical and against God and his plans for us.  Mixing parties, I'm sure that's somewhere in the Bible.
    [ Parent ]
    Best Laugh of the Day
    Andrew, you get the comment of the day award.
    [ Parent ]
    SSP Daily Digest: 7/16 (Morning Edition) | 49 comments

    Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

    Primary Sponsor

    You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

    Menu

    Make a New Account

    Username:

    Password:



    Forget your username or password?

    About the Site

    Publisher: DavidNYC

    Senior Editor: James L.

    Senior Editor: Crisitunity

    Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

    Search the SSP archives:

    Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

    SSP Resources

    Presidential Vote by CD

    SSP Document Collection

    Race Tracker Wiki

    Dave's Redistricting App

    Blogroll

    Daily Kos Elections
    DemConWatch
    Five Thirty Eight
    Governing
    Hotline On Call
    Political Wire
    Pollster.com
    Prop*50
    Public Policy Polling
    The Thicket
    Powered by: SoapBlox