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CT-Gov: Lamont Leads All

by: James L.

Thu Jul 15, 2010 at 7:41 PM EDT


Quinnipiac (7/7-13, likely primary voters, no trend lines):

Tom Foley (R): 48
Mike Fedele (R): 13
Oz Griebel (R): 7
Undecided: 32
(MoE: 3.4%)

Ned Lamont (D): 46
Dan Malloy (D): 37
Undecided: 16
(MoE: 3.8%)

Since Quinnipiac has shifted for the first time to a likely primary voter model away from merely registered voters, I'm leaving out any trend lines (though you can see their last primary poll here). However, Quinnipiac also tested the primaries without a likely voter screen, which resulted in a 43-9 lead for Foley over Fedele and a 46-26 lead for Ned Lamont over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy.

Lamont is also looking pretty good in the general election -- and so is Dan Malloy (registered voters, 1/14-19 in parens):

Ned Lamont (D): 49 (41)
Michael Fedele (R): 27 (32)
Undecided: 19 (23)

Ned Lamont (D): 45 (38)
Tom Foley (R): 33 (36)
Undecided: 17 (21)

Ned Lamont (D): 49
Oz Greibel (R): 25
Undecided: 21

Dan Malloy (D): 49 (37)
Michael Fedele (R): 26 (31)
Undecided: 20 (27)

Dan Malloy (D): 44 (37)
Tom Foley (R): 33 (33)
Undecided: 19 (24)

Dan Malloy (D): 51
Oz Greibel (R): 25
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±2.7%)

The Republicans in this race are still generally very unknown (nearly 60% of registered voters haven't heard enough about Foley, a former US Ambassador, to form an opinion of him, and nearly 80% feel the same about Fedele, the current Lt. Governor), but Lamont and Malloy are starting off in fairly good shape, approval-wise. Lamont has a 49-21 favorable rating, indicating he's been able to shake off any baggage he may have accumulated from his big-spending '06 campaign, and Malloy is looking sharp, too, at 41-11. Not a bad place to be at all.

James L. :: CT-Gov: Lamont Leads All
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You know...
I want Lamont to win, just for the effect it would have for Lieberman to see his hated opponent become Governor.  

My sentiment exactly. And it would be another nail in Lieberman's coffin......
Lamont as Governor would be the state party's leader and will have that much more influence over 2012.  It's a given he'll endorse anyone-but-Joe and have real weight to throw behind the nominee.

And, Lamont wins in the primary and in November will have vindicated fully Lamont's Senate run in 2006.  It will mean the Senate run made him a player.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I'd think Lieberman would just retire
Assuming Lamont wins the governor's mansion, I mean, at a bare minimum this pretty much guarantees that whoever runs against Lieberman for the Democratic nod (assuming he goes that route) would have the implicit (if not explicit) backing of the Connecticut Party.

Although I'd rather see him try to run as a Republican, if for no other reason, I'd love to see that how liberals have treated him has been a cake-walk compared to what the conservatives will do to him (and I'd enjoy every minute of it). I know it'll never happen, but still, it would be hilarious to picture it.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I agree that a Lamont win this November could force Lieberman to retire......
A sitting Governor has supreme clout within his party, period.

You and I agree on Lieberman's only path to victory otherwise is through the Democratic primary, and I've been touting that as Lieberman's likely recourse for a long time.  Lieberman won as an indy the last time for the same reason he lost the primary:  the Iraq War.  That is over, and Republicans have no reason to support him again.  He's actually voted with Democrats on every floor vote this Congress and also supports cap-and-trade and other things Republicans hate, so they're done with him whether as an indy or in a foolish attempt to seek the GOP nomination.

But Lamont as Governor can make Lieberman's life very difficult in 2012.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Paging Chris Murphy


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
The Iraq War is over?


[ Parent ]
It won't be nearly as big of an issue, I'd imagine
And even if Afghanistan becomes a big issue, the problem there is it's probably going to be a question of where Obama is on it (if he's pulling troops out, the issue will probably be quite irrelevant for any primaries, as it'll probably require any Democrats running (including Lieberman) to support his plan).

The economy and his stance on HCR will probably be much more relevant to the race rather than Iraq or Afghanistan.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Very quietly, yes. It's over for America, at least. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Lieberman May Pull Out All Stops
And campaign or endorse the Republican candidate for governor after the primary. But then again, it's like throwing sand at a rushing tide: he can't really stop anything. Lamont and Blumenthal seemed all but assured victory.

[ Parent ]
I'd challenge that statement
That govs have supreme clout within their party.

Arney out here in CA has a hard time getting 2 or 3 republican state senators on board these god damn budget bills.  It's pathetic.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
Thats a special case


[ Parent ]
Exactly
a governor with a 16% approval rating (Gray Davis de javu) doesn't have much clout with anyone these days.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
where are all thesr succesful guvs
I don't know the original statement really applies anywhere.

[ Parent ]
Beebe and Hoeven come to mind, n/t


[ Parent ]
so it doesnt apply to stayes with many people
And Arkansas is set swinging hard repub so not sure what clout he is wielding.

It's just a silly premise really.  I can't think of a single state where the giv is really leading a resurgence statewide of his/her party.


[ Parent ]
Virginia
Just look at 09's results for AG and LG, even though one was a Republican incumbent, he faced arguably the best Democratic candidate VA Dems nominated for anything last year. He has also had a pretty good influence in Rigell's primary, considering Rigell won with a pretty good margin over a man who spent over a million dollars and attacked him for Obama contributions.  

[ Parent ]
virginia?
Didn't send run an absolutely awful campaign at the top of the ticket?  How's the state bring governed in a decidedly different manner in 2008.  What house reps or senators are being pressured by the current giv to become more republican.  

[ Parent ]
I think you are making a silly
presumption about Arkansas. I'll be waiting and seeing this year; if Democrats hold their massive 2/3rds majorities in both houses of the legislature, and hold all statewide offices except for Senate, I feel like the Democratic demise there will have been thoroughly overstated. Obama lost counties it's not normally considered possible for an Arkansas Democrat to lose, and it's because he never lifted a finger in the state, neither during the primary or the general, and that left a significant Clinton effect and a significant effect of letting rumors and misinformation take hold.

As for Governors leading a resurgence, I point you to how Ed Rendell was, for quite a while, able to lead Democrats into taking over large portions of the Philly burbs. At the turning point of a state's allegiances governors are crucial blocks insofar as leading to one parties dominance.  


[ Parent ]
lol arkansas is trending gop
Certainly house seats will be lost in November.  Lincoln will lose.  And den majorities in the both state houses will shrink.

[ Parent ]
Also Jay Nixon and Jan Brewer
and ironically, those the only governors I know of who had the audacity to raise taxes.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
My fear
... is that the Democratic primary in 2012 is shaping up to have a number of serious and attractive candidates with significant constituencies (at least 4 serious ones that are making the gossip rounds in the state), and that in that situation Lieberman may be able to rustle enough embittered conservadems to make it through a primary successfully. Something to keep an eye on, anyway.

[ Parent ]
Agree, Lieberman can still win a primary in a split field, so the Dems need...
...someone with the ability to be a runaway frontrunner with anti-Lieberman Democrats.  And while Chris Murphy would be nice, it doesn't have to be him, someone with less stature but still great political ability could do it.  There are always people like that under the radar, it's just a matter of finding one and persuading her/him to run.

But part of my longstanding argument that Lieberman could end up winning in 2012 as the Democratic nominee does, indeed, come from the possibility that Murphy and others with existing stature could be scared off, not wanting a bruising fight.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I think J Lieberman has very hard work for win a primary (democratic or republican)
In the democratic primary is toast, and in the republican primary he would be easily teabagged. I think he will become republican only if he can assure have not challengers in the republican primary.

I think he will work for have not primary challengers, even in the democratic primary or in the republican primary, but I think he will not stop the potential runners.

I think J Lieberman is very weak now, his approval numbers are very low, and the people what still approve him seems not to be in only one party for make a strong basis for a primary.


[ Parent ]
I have a feeling it'll be like KY-Sen
Where we had several potential nominees to go up against Mongiardo and they all decided which one of them would run, with Conway being the candidate.

I dont think CT-Dems will let Lieberman slide through this time.


[ Parent ]
Liberman is too arrogant to retire...
He thinks everyone loves him in CT, just like LeBron James thinks he can still live in Northeast Ohio and everything will be hunky dory.

[ Parent ]
Many times the people more arrogant is..

...is the people what decide retire when has not a favorable environment.

[ Parent ]
How bittersweet would it be
if Lamont wins in CT and Dems lost in DC?

I remember an inept Lamont's campaign
in 2006 and still can't take him too seriously. So i will probably root for Malloy. Foley is, probably, the only Republican who can give both a race, but in absence of Jodi Rell Republican bench looks very unconvincing...

At this point

I doubt seriously if J Rell would be able for win this year. I think she would lose against N Lamont.

S Bysiewicz close the race against J Rell when she was in, and N Lamont is improving enough for defeat so easily the other republicans. He can be now in the level of J Rell.

I think Malloy is too a good candidate, and I would like to see him in some office, but seems difficult if he run for governor only.


[ Parent ]
According to Qpac
She has a 60-32 approval rating. She'd crush.  

[ Parent ]
At this point

I doubt seriously if J Rell would be able for win this year. I think she would lose against N Lamont.

S Bysiewicz close the race against J Rell when she was in, and N Lamont is improving enough for defeat so easily the other republicans. He can be now in the level of J Rell.

I think Malloy is too a good candidate, and I would like to see him in some office, but seems difficult if he run for governor only.


[ Parent ]
(OT) LVRJ/Mason-Dixon Poll Just Came Out:
Reid is ahead 44-37!  http://politicalwire.com/archi...

A mix of luck and a great campaign staff made Reid the comeback kid.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!



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