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SSP Daily Digest: 7/12 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Jul 12, 2010 at 7:54 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: It's not every day you see an incumbent agreeing to debate a primary challenger, but Sen. Lisa Murkowski has done just that. She'll meet Joe Miller for three debates in the middle of August, just before the primary on the 24th.
  • CT-Sen: This Politico story reminds me of that scene in Monty Python and the Holy Grail where, amidst the Black Plague, the peasant exhorts everyone to "Bring out yer dead!" and dump them on his cart. One not-quite victim protests, "But I'm not dead yet!" So, too, the Rob Simmons campaign. A whole bunch of people - including Rob Simmons himself - plan on voting for Simmons in the August 10th primary. But it's pretty clear that hope indeed seems to be the plan here, since Simmons still isn't campaigning and seems to just be praying for an unlikely win. At least it's a better system of governance than strange women lyin' in ponds distributin' swords.
  • FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is pulling the trigger on a special legislative session in which he'll ask lawmakers to add a constitutional amendment to the November ballot which would allow voters to ban offshore drilling. The Miami Herald notes that Crist didn't lay any groundwork for this special session with state House leaders, meaning he could potentially get negged here. But even that could redound to Crist's benefit, as he'd be able to campaign against the legislature's failure to give the people a voice on this pressing issue.
  • KY-Sen: It's like John Galt forgot the fact that his motors still had to be delivered along public roads: Rand Paul is taking heat from local officials on account of his distaste for using federal money for drug treatment programs. Note that we aren't talking about the "war on drugs" here, but money used to treat addicts - which Paul says should come from local sources. But the people who actually have to deal with the problem say that Paul doesn't understand how important federal dollars are for these programs. Not really surprising, given Rand Paul Math:
  • When tax money flows to the nation's capitol, half stays there, half is wasted and half of it goes to political cronyism, Paul said.

  • LA-Sen: David Vitter got a somewhat-prominent primary challenger at the very last minute: retired LA Supreme Court Judge Chet Traylor. There's also at least one other Some Dude in the race. If for some reason Vitter can't get 50% in the primary - which is not until August 28th - then he'd have to deal with a runoff on October 2nd, barely a month before the general. Also interestingly, Republican state Rep. Ernest Wooton qualified for the race, too - as an independent. This might be a rare bit of good news for Charlie Melancon. (H/t Darth Jeff.)
  • NV-Sen: At the state GOP convention, Sharron Angle expressed her support for the party's platform - a wonderfully nutty document, as Jon Ralston points out, that touts its opposition to a "one-world government." Angle was later seen leaving the convention on a black helicopter. Meanwhile, President Obama just did a fundraiser for Harry Reid late last week, which apparently raised $800K.
  • SC-Sen: Alvin Greene won't face any charges regarding the $10,440 filing fee he paid to run for senate, or over whether he misrepresented his finances when he asked for a public defender after being charged with a crime (showing an obscene photo) last fall. It turns out that Greene really did pull together the scratch himself, mostly from his Army exit pay and a hefty tax refund. It's not how I would have spent my last ten thousand bucks, but to each his own.
  • SD-Sen: With zero opponents on the ballot - not even a Some Dude independent - John Thune is shuttering his campaign team. While it's always painful to see a Republican senate seat go completely uncontested like this, I wonder if this might not be for the best in terms of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's re-election chances. At the very least, it means that Thune won't be out there stumping on the campaign trail - and won't provide an attractive top-of-the-ticket draw in November. While it's probably unprovable, I know a lot of folks here feel that Dick Lugar's lack of an opponent probably helped us win three house races in Indiana in 2006, a sentiment I tend to share.
  • WI-Sen: Cute: Zillionaire teabagger Ron Johnson had previously criticized President Obama for pushing BP to set up a fund to pay out claims for damage their oil spill has caused. It turns out that Johnson owns at least $116,000 worth of BP stock. Johnson laughably tried to point out that Wisconsin's public employee pension fund also invests in BP - and that Russ Feingold is a member of that fund (he was a state legislator before being elected to Congress). Srsly?
  • WV-Sen: It looks like that statement is no longer operative. On Friday, Gov. Joe Manchin told Politico's Ben Smith that he would "declare his intentions about a Senate run Monday." The next day, though, he informed Politico's Jonathan Martin that he's going to hold off until two things happen: first, he wants the state legislature (called back for a special session) to clarify the law on special election to replace Sen. Robert Byrd. Second, he wants to name an interim office-holder. Manchin also said that the special session will be held this Thursday at noon. (And in an odd aside, Manchin - who seems all but certain to run for Byrd's seat - just became head of the National Governors Association.)
  • AL-Gov: This is probably too late to help much, but term-limited Gov. Bob Riley is endorsing former college chancellor Bradley Byrne in tomorrow's runoff against state Rep. Robert Bentley. Still, Bentley seems to be in the better position. Despite being something of a dark horse in the first round, Bentley has apparently done a good job of consolidating conservatives, and internal polling has generally showed him in the lead.
  • AL-02: It's not like we can love Bobby Bright - but we probably can credit him with running a good campaign. Republican Martha Roby is trying to paint herself as a champion against illegal immigration, but as Politico points out, in past battles on the subject, Bright took a harder line than Roby did. As Alex Isenstadt says, "It's the newest iteration of a recurring challenge for Roby's campaign: How do you run to the right of a Democrat who's been squarely on the conservative end of his party since even before he was elected?" Roby still has a runoff fight tomorrow with Rick "The Barber" Barber.
  • CA-11: David Harmer, running against Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney, pulled in more than $400K last quarter.
  • FL-25: Marili Cancio, running against establishment favorite David Rivera in the GOP primary, accused him of "repeat domestic violence" on her Facebook page. There have been some rumors circulating about a potential story here (you can Google for more).
  • LA-02: State Sen. Karen Carter Peterson, who lost a runoff to then-Rep. Bill Jefferson in 2006, will not seek to challenge Rep. Joe Cao. This leaves state Reps. Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta as Cao's most likely opponents. I'm actually a bit surprised that more big names didn't get into the race, given how tempting a target Cao seems to be.
  • MI-13: The Detroit Free Press takes a look at the field challenging Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick in the Dem primary - and points out that Kilpatrick, who only took in 39% in the 2008 primary - doesn't even have a website. The Freep thinks her two toughest challengers are state Sen. Hansen Clarke and businessman John Broad, while three other Some Dudes round out the field. No one has raised very much, and even Kilpatrick has only $300K on hand. But she may yet benefit from a split field for the second cycle in a row, much like Jean Schmidt.
  • NM-02: Handsome Harry Teague raised some $320K in Q2 and has $1.2 mil in the bank.
  • NY-14: Reshma Saujani is claiming that Carolyn Maloney agreed to a debate - but Maloney's camp says no such thing ever happened. Given Maloney's consistent stance of refusing to credit Saujani in any way, I have a very hard time believing anything Saujani's team says about this. And meanwhile, the Washington Post has a pretty puffy profile of Saujani, which if nothing else confirms that she truly is the candidate of the banksters.
  • NY-18: Self-funding venture capitalist Paul Wasserman has dropped his bid to take on Rep. Nita Lowey in this suburban New York district. Westchester County Republicans are now instead backing 2008 nominee Jim Russell, who has a decidedly less-gaudy campaign warchest ($5,000).
  • Fundraising: A couple of memos - which were probably designed to be leaked - are now circulating which detail Democratic fears that they will be outspent by conservative interest groups this fall. What I don't get is why every cycle, people always act like one side outspending the other is some kind of big surprise. New 527s come and go all the time, and it's not like big Dem or GOP donors all of a sudden forget every January that, hey, there's an election on! Maybe we should look into this newfangled 527 thing? This stuff is cyclical, and the fact that we're getting our asses kicked in 2010 is not really news. But if memos like these spook a few rich Dems into opening their wallets, then okay.
  • Polltopia: Or more like poll dystopia. Media Matters has a distressing piece on McClatchy's decision to stop polling altogether as part of a budget cutback. (They had previously done about a dozen polls a year with Ipsos.) The piece also details how many, many other news organizations, particularly local newspapers, have also pared down or eliminated their polling in recent years. I know there are far worse problems in the world, but as far as Swingnuts are concerned, this is very, very sad and unfortunate.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/12 (Morning Edition)
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    LA-02: LaFonta, not LaFontana
    Also for CA-11, David Harmer scares me, but McNerney seems like a good guy and Harmer seems like a douche. Someone please tell me that Harmer's performance in CA-10 was more due to Garamendi's weakness than Harmer's strength?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    It was a low-turnout special election
    There didn't seem to be much enthusiasm about Garamendi, and Harmer did manage to raise nearly a million dollars. And there's the delicious irony of him being the carpetbagger this time.

    [ Parent ]
    Kilpatrick
    http://www.kilpatrickforcongre...

    Looks like a web site to me.  


    It sure does
    She's probably always going to draw a challenger in the Democratic primary, and Detroit is tough politics for anyone.  That said, I don't understand why so many people nationally seem to want her gone.  She got to Congress by beating the crooked and homophobic Barbara Hill Collins, and has been an effective advocate for Detroit since then (actually a much more active local advocate than John Conyers has been).

    I got to meet her in 2004 when she came to Indianapolis to campaign with Julia Carson, and found her one of the most absolutely charming politicians I've ever met.  Just because her son is a fuck up isn't her fault.


    [ Parent ]
    The problem isn't Cheeks
    The rest of her family is the problem.  Her son is a felon facing more felony charges and potentially even more felony charges as the grand jury is still out.  Her husband is also under investigation by a grand jury.  

    I doubt she was involved like I doubt Conyers was involved in any of his wife's antics, but the stink of corruption around Cheeks is probably causing this to say the least.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Kilpatrick
    She did help her son on his way into politics, and presumably she helped raise him.  And her daughter and their Father are probably also facing charges...

    [ Parent ]
    Well, have any of her ethical questions dealt with her governance?
    I'm not familiar with her controversies.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    Well, have any of her ethical questions dealt with her governance?
    To the best of my knowledge, the controversies have all been guilt-by-association.  

    That said, the baseline presumption about Detroit politicians is that they are corrupt, and in this case the associations are very strong, so even reasonable people assume it is likely to be a matter of proof rather than actual innocence.  (If all the choices are corrupt, would you prefer someone sufficiently smart and competent to at least keep it covered up successfully?)

    It also doesn't help that her son is so toxic that (plausible but unproven) backroom deals with him have become an important issue in the Republican Gubernatorial primary.  In other words, even if she really is innocent, her very name is a distraction that gets news cycles off on the wrong message.


    [ Parent ]
    Barbara-Rose Collins
    I have heard she was homophobic, but I remember also reading that she voted against DOMA. Can someone please explain this for me?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    As Harry Truman once reportedly responded at Yale
    in the late 1950s to a student who asked him how a guy brought up in rural Missouri could be such a supporter for civil rights, Truman responded (I paraphrase): Everyone has certain basic rights and I will support them, but I don't want to personally associate with blacks (Truman used a slur here).

    [ Parent ]
    MSNBC First Read posts my longtime thought and frustration on our troubles......
    No, they don't give me attribution!  :-)

    But I've thought for a long time, Obama has governed well but messaged very poorly.

    Turning our attention away from the midterms and to the Obama White House, we've come to this conclusion: This White House is simply not good at handling communication and politics. The legislative achievements are there. So is the individual outreach. But what's missing is a coherent message. Whether dealing with the media, the business community, Republicans, or Congress, this White House hasn't gotten its message across. (Just check out what Dem Gov. Chris Gregoire said of the White House's communication on immigration: "They described for me a list of things that they are doing to try and help on that border," Ms. Gregoire said... "And I said, 'The public doesn't know that.'") Why is this surprising? The last thing so many of us thought during the presidential campaign was that these guys would have difficulties controlling the message and managing their constituents. Simply put, Washington runs this White House right now; the White House doesn't run Washington.

    This is frustrating because poor messaging is a big UNforced error.  And we're going to lose some seats this fall because of it.  Sigh!

    This applies to the stimulus, with most people unaware there were almost $300 billion in tax cuts.  Even former Reagan Treasury Secretary James Baker publicly displayed ignorance and disbelief of this fact, and that tells you how badly you've messaged when someone like that is ignorant of politically critical basic facts.

    It applies to health care, where all the Administration ever communicated were "goals," never what the bills actually did for people in an easily digestible message that beat back the attacks.

    It applies to the oil spill, where the Administration, from everything credible I've read, has handled it competently, but almost entirely behind-the-scenes without any public awareness.

    And now on immigration, Governor Gregoire points out yet again that Obama officials tell her a laundry list of things they've done on border control that she wasn't even aware of.

    Axelrod/Gibbs et all. are just not giving our candidates the messaging material they need to win their persuadable voters' votes.  It's very frustrating.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Rather surprising in hindsight
    Given how Obama ran his campaign, you'd have expected quite the opposite on messaging.

    [ Parent ]
    Communications
    For being a campaign that was so on point when it came to message, it has been awful when it comes to communications as an administration.  I would go out and say the Obama spin machine is worse than the Bush spin machine, which had problems spinning anything.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    not to disagree with any of these comments
    Because its very obvious there is a giant messaging problem.  However, I see two problems; there being a signle coherent message and then there at times being none at all, we don't know what you are doing Mr President. The coherency is where Obama gets it right.  What he needs are all the Democrats on board to make the messaging work.  Having those couple of conservaDems going on tv and arguing against us is what makes our messaging shot to shit because if we can't even agree on the policy, how on earth can we get the messaging.

    God I can't wait to see Lieberman lose and hopefully Nelson.  His, give Nebraska special deals or I won't vote yes made the entire bill a joke and if it weren't Lieberman being the first traitor, then none of the others would have followed suit probably.  (Sorry if this comment is structured poorly, on my blackberry and brea time is up.)


    [ Parent ]
    ConservaDems don't matter, people listen to Obama......
    If Obama and his Administration subordinates communicate a crisp and clear message on each crisis or legislative priority that arises, it doesn't matter what a few conservaDems say on TV.

    And regarding Lieberman and Nelson, fair enough on Lieberman but wanting Nelson gone is the same as voting Republican.  It's Nebraska, it's a conservative state, we need Nelson to run and win.  Nebraska Democrats are so weak they don't even have a gubernatorial nominee right now, 4 months out, and they might very well decide not to offer one.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    President Obama has the "bully pulpit"
    Nelson and Lieberman do not.  

    [ Parent ]
    Senators sure get plenty of press
    when they are firmly standing in the way of their own parties biggest piece of domestic social legislation in half a century.  Everything fell apart after HCR and what Obama should be blamed for is not fighting back enough message wise while Lieberman et al get credit for allowing the opportunity for their something to need to fight back.

    Dont waste all of our time for months on end when their is an economic collapse to worry about as well.  God Lieberman better hope he never meets me....


    [ Parent ]
    And the President has a much bigger bullhorn
    Unfortunately, President Obama has rarely used it.

    How many press conferences, speeches from the Oval Office, etc. has President Obama had compared to previous Presidents?

    If he used it in even an "average" way, I think Nelson and Lieberman would have been drowned out.


    [ Parent ]
    Agreed completely.


    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Hey me too!!!
    I've been saying this for months (well since July 2009 or thereabouts), but I agree. It's just downright awful! It's clean up on aisle "post-November time".

    Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
    All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


    [ Parent ]
    GA-Gov: Billl Clinton endorses Thurbert Baker
    http://blogs.ajc.com/georgia_e...

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    I suspect this could at least force Barnes into a run-off
    Which, would put ample pressure on Bubba to campaign for Baker after it.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Too little, too late
    Just an attempt by Bubba to show up Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    Are you joking? If not, you'll have to explain that one......
    Obama and the White House haven't said or done anything in Georgia this year.  There's been no indication they support Barnes, although since Barnes is our best bet in November I would guess they privately "root" for him.

    Regarding Clinton and Obama, every indication is that they're at peace, and in fact Bill has been very supportive of Obama.  Bill's endorsements are entirely and exclusively about rewarding his wife's 2008 primary supporters, nothing else, and not a slap in the face of Obama.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    I didn't get the "slap at Obama" thing either.  The two seem to be getting along well, and the Clintons have known Baker for a long time, he supported Hillary, now Bill is supporing him.  That's just standard politics.

    [ Parent ]
    I doubt it will matter too much in the general
    Bubba's endorsement record in Dem primaries hasn't been that great.  He went all out for Terry McAuliffe, only to see him lose by 23 points.  This isn't to say Dem voters have soured on Clinton: only that like most endorsements, he doesn't make much of a difference.  

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    Me thinks
    that he's much more effective at rallying Dems to turnout than anything else. Critz is a perfectly good example.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    I think it's too little, too late.
    We're a week removed from the primary and early voting has been going on for weeks.  Barnes is on the air with multiple ads while Baker is limited to just one that I haven't seen much of.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    The polltopia part
    Isn't only bad for SSPers, it's bad for the whole political arena. With fewer polls, Rasmussen becomes even more prominent; as newspapers don't poll themselves, they will be forced to cite Rasmussen polls more often. Further, there will be less data to counter outliers. Sad.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    and as we've seen
    This can dictate an entire election with early good, but false, looking polls for some candidates will get them to run, others to retire, which snowballs and all of a sudden Cornyn has an army of non-crappy candidates!

    [ Parent ]
    You're giving Rasmussen way too much credit, they're not so trusted as that......
    Chuck Todd made the point some months ago that if Rasmussen was so great, campaigns would use the same methodology for their internal polling.  They don't.

    Party committees and prospective candidates will look at Rasmussen, but neither side really trusts them without doing their own polling.  Maybe if Rasmussen is signaling something political professionals weren't expecting, they'll use it as a reason to do their own internal polling to see if there's something there, but ultimately they make their decisions based on their own polling.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    agreed
    If Democrats online don't trust Ras, what makes you think someone is going to retire because they were down in a Ras poll?  I think it affects the lives of the people being polled more than it affects us!  Similarly, Rossi in Washington isn't going to get in a race which will cost him time and money if the only poll that has him having a chance is Ras.  And I'm not bashing Ras, I'm just saying you don't make life changing decisions based on a topline number from one pollster, no matter who it is.

    [ Parent ]
    If low information voters
    see the Rasmussen polls, I would imagine it would have some sway.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    That never happens. Low information voters by definition...
    ...don't know what specific polls say.  They've never heard of Rasmussen.  I can tell you from my own circles, even liberal and politically-active ones, that I'm surprised when I meet someone who's even heard of Rasmussen polling.  Everyone knows Gallup, people know the major TV networks and newspapers commission their own polls, and Mason-Dixon has some name recognition.  But no one knows of Rasmussen, they're too deep in the weeds.

    Rasmussen's strong right-wing bias with their drastic departure from professionally-accepted methodology, their erratic results, and their frequent outliers cause news organizations to ignore them, so they don't get cited as much as major polls.

    Keep in mind, too, that campaigns and party committees share some private polling information off-the-record with political reporters, so political reporters have better information than Rasmussen and know that Rasmussen is bad.  That's why a lot of them won't report Rasmussen.  They'll report more reputable pollsters, though.

    Really, Rasmussen's "impact" is greatly overrated in American politics, as badly as Karl Rove's.  No question Scott Rasmussen wants to have the impact a lot of us fear he's having, but he's not.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    The Press and Rasmussen
    I have to disagree with your characterization that the press steers clear of Rasmussen.  If anything, I have seen more articles as of late citing Rasmussen polls in different states.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly what I more so thinking
    The press narrative was following Rasmussen polls because he was the only won with stuff out, and R2K was used as well but there was always a Rasmussen poll to pair with an R2K.  And R2K was never well known before while Rasmussen has been giving the media numbers for many cycles.

    Im not saying Scotty did everything, but it certainly helped give credibility that the GOP are picking up steam because ZOMG look at the polls!  If Rasmussen is the only one with numbers, they lean conservative, and they are trusted, then the narrative is going to lean conservative, even if the poll is crap.


    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    and that's my pretty much my point.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    Don't agree at all......
    The media says the Republicans are doing well in polls because Republicans are actually doing well in well-conducted polls, including private polls to which political reporters are privy.  Republicans are doing well in Gallup, in the major news polls like NBC/WSJ, and other credible polls.

    I don't agree that Rasmussen is succeeding in driving anything in media reporting.  I don't doubt Scotty is trying to do that, and he's succeeding in getting his fellow right-wingers all excited.

    I realize the notion is out there that with state-level media cutting back political reporting, they're relying on whatever other information is readily available, and that Rasmussen polling is among the most prolific of available data.  But Rasmussen also has an iffy reputation, and you don't see their polls discussed much in major state newspapers from what I've seen.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Well this isnt doing anything now
    But way back during the HCR protests, Rasmussen was pretty much front and center in driving that the Democrats were going down because of this.  They would come out with a poll on cue to help nudge a candidate in the right direction and get the media talking about their candidacy even more so, which only helps get said candidate into race more so.  Maybe one day I'll go back through the SSP archives and properly research this but I certainly remember many instances of this correctly.

    But I certainly will put this in hypothesis because you saying that Rasmussen was simply reflecting what has happening and were the only polls out is a very valid point.  And also candidates having their own internal polling is necessary.  But the media lapped up Rasmussen polls like it was free booze.


    [ Parent ]
    I don't really agree
    I tend to think a lot of low information voters get all of their political news from cable and punditry. They won't necessarily know Rasmussen by name, but when Fox News says that, say, Ellsworth is down 20 points due to poll (Rasmussen), they'll believe it as fact.

    I also think that donors will see that someone like Coats is up and donate to them.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


    [ Parent ]
    Low information voters don't follow cable news and punditry that much......
    Low information voters don't follow the punditry much, and they don't follow polling at all except for the broad trends.  They see the polling major news orgs and local papers highlight, and it really has to be HIGHLIGHTED, not buried in the 3rd paragraph of a random story.

    Low information voters will watch cable news, but Fox has a virtually exclusively conservative and Republican audience.  Polls show Fox viewers have voted in recent elections for Republicans broadly and McCain in particular by the same kinds of margins you see conservatives and Republicans provide in exit polls or pre-election polling.

    Outside Fox News, major news orgs don't cite Rasmussen because they know from being privy to private polling that Scotty is full of shit.  Fox, too, probably has reporters privy to private polling, but they have a right-wing agenda so they cite Rasmussen anyway.

    I see blogs cite Rasmussen a lot without discrediting them, including reported blogs like the nonpartisan Politico and Political Wire and the liberal Talking Points Memo.  And of course other liberal blogs report Rasmussen for the purpose of smacking him down.  But low information voters never look at these blogs.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Ok
    You make some good points, but do you think that polls have influence of donations? If I see that a candidate like Tommy Sowers is close in a poll, I would want to donate to him. I'm not going to do that if it's a lost cause. I think people might base whether they donate on polling. Thoughts?

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    To some extent that's true, but a candidate's efforts dwarf whatever impact...
    ...polling has.  If you're running for federal office or for Governor or for anything downballot, your fundraising depends overwhelmingly on your own willingness to do call time and make sure you hire a good staff who know how to get lists and pull together key bundlers and whatever else fundraising requires.  It's the campaign itself that determines how much money is raised.

    Like you, I'm influenced in my personal giving by polling among other things.  I gave Jack Conway $250, but if he were consistently down against Paul by double-digit margins according to multiple pollsters, I would have balked.  Since he's down only single-digits, I ante'd up.  Same thing in Virginia where I live, where I gave to Tom Perriello based on my belief he can still win reelection and is only a slight, rather than overwhelming, underdog.

    But I think this kind of motivation by people like you and me adds up to only a pittance in the fundraising world.  Big donors do, indeed, want to see competitiveness, but a campaign easily can shoot down Rasmussen's influence by sharing private polling, which I'm sure they do.  I bet Conway after that Rasmussen poll showed him down 25 post-primary was sharing his more competitive and truthful private numbers with all kinds of money kingpins.

    Ultimately I think the fears of Rasmussen's influence are overblown and don't hold up against scrutiny, when one takes a close look at what really drives campaigns and elections.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Wait a second....
    When we talk about false polls how come we keep referring to Rasmussen as false. But as I recall the only polling group that has been exposed as a fraud was Kos related R2K.

    So if anyone was guilty of pumping out false polls to help their side it was Kos and the Dems.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    R2K
    didn't crank out nearly as many as Rasmussen.

    Agreed, no one has proven them to be false, but their polls scream outlier.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


    [ Parent ]
    You really need to wise up, fools aren't suffered here......
    Kos and Dems never pumped out false polls to help Dems.

    Markos was looking for reputable and honest polling, and got scammed by an outfit who previously had earned the trust of the larger news media.

    Get your facts straight if you want to be a respected part of the community here.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Everything you said


    [ Parent ]
    Slightly unrelated
    but Politico said Markos could be announcing a new pollster this week

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

    [ Parent ]
    Hopefully
    We need more, accurate polling.

    [ Parent ]
    Yup, I've missed the DK polling. They work hard to get good stuff......
    We need the polls in the political narrative.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Two issues with R2K
    There are two separate issues with R2K polls from what I have seen.  First, they had a clear Democratic bent.  Anyone who believed that the turnout in 2010 would resemble 2008 turnout should put down the narcotics they are using.  Second, there are some issues with some of their polls in terms of accuracy.

    On the first issue, they are as guilty as Rasmussen of having a partisan tilt.  Most pollsters do.  The only outfits that I am convinced that do not have a partisan tilt are Gallup and Survey USA at the national level.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Er
    The right leaning Strategic Vision? And nobody said Rasmussen's polling is "false".

    [ Parent ]
    First, the allegation against R2K is that their results have been faked, but...
    ...their volume has not been excessively large, unlike Rasmussen's.  So "pumping out" is a misleading term on your part.

    Second, R2K's allegedly faking results has nothing to do with Rasmussen's problems.  Rasmussen's problems are that they use a significantly different polling method, which gives results that seem to have a systematic R+ lean.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    [ Parent ]
    Not to mention that
    Kos, as we all know, is a liberal, but even HE fired R2K.

    R2K's reputation for being D+ leaning is well-known already.  That's nothing new.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    [ Parent ]
    Unacceptable
    Comments that serve to mislead and distort, such as yours, are not tolerated here. This is a warning.

    [ Parent ]
    MI-13
    I don't remember seeing this in the digest, but a few weeks back a small poll was released showing Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick trailing Sen. Hansen Clarke 19% to 27%.  It only had 137 respondents, so take it with a grain of salt...

    http://www.mlive.com/news/detr...

    16, Male, MI-01


    Grebner has been doing a lot of those lately
    The sample sizes are way too small to be really useful, but they're interesting snapshots, at the very least. He had one a day or two ago from MI-1 also. It showed Benishek up by just under 1 percent on Jason Allen (20.3 - 19.7) in the R primary.  

    [ Parent ]
    I've been seeing a lot of Benishek adds
    and no Allen ones, so that may explain that.  

    16, Male, MI-01

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen (humor)
    Well, it's a possibly viable strategy.

    Wild mass guessing: Alvin Greene is descended from the Lady of the Lake.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


    If it worked in SC why not CT!
    Alvin Greene's front portch campaign might jusr revolutionize politics as we know it after all. If it does the demand for those Alive Greene action figures will go through the roof!

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    CA-11
    Keep in mind that much of Harmer's money was spent in a tough primary.  I'm waiting to see the COH of Harmer and McNerney.
       

    from the green papers
    David Jeffrey Harmer
    • FEC H0CA10123; 30 Jun 10; Tot $1,815,523; Dsb $1,437,912

    from http://www.thegreenpapers.com/...

    (Those are total and dispersed, leaving less than 400k on hand.)

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    He has $233k on hand according to the FEC
    Remember that some of the money he raised was from his run against Garamendi last year.

    McNerney had over $1 million in his pre-primary report, so he's probably banked even more since then.


    [ Parent ]
    Manchin
    needs to appoint someone soon. Millions are waiting.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    KY-Sen
    Paul simply forgot to mention the third half was deficit spending and not from our taxes.

    Handsome Harry Teague?
    Was that just an expression or were you going for some kind of alliteration?  And if you weren't going for either of those, are you sure you didn't mean Martin Heinrich?

    Oh no
    We meant Harry. No doubt about that.

    [ Parent ]

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