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SSP Daily Digest: 6/21 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Jun 21, 2010 at 8:00 AM EDT


  • FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Florida Chamber of Commerce Political Institute and Cherry Communications (6/9-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

    • Rick Scott (R): 35
    Bill McCollum (R): 30
    Undecided: 33
    (MoE: ±_%)

    Alex Sink (D): 26
    Rick Scott (R): 30
    Bud Chiles (I): 15

    Alex Sink (D): 26
    Bill McCollum (R): 31
    Bud Chiles (I): 15
    (MoE: ±4%)

    Kendrick Meek (D): 14
    Marco Rubio (R): 31
    Charlie Crist (I): 42
    (MoE: ±4%)

  • IL-Sen: Really gotta wonder what's going on here. The New York Times keeps digging into Mark Kirk's past and finds that the nursery school where he claimed to teach for a brief spell in 1981 "never, ever considered" Kirk a teacher, according to a leader of its affiliated church.

  • UT-Sen: Mike Lee has an internal poll, conducted by Wenzel Strategies, showing him with a 45-35 lead over Time Bridgewater in the GOP primary. However, an independent poll conducted by Dan Jones and Associates for the Deseret News & KSL-TV has almost opposite numbers: 42 Bridgewater, 33 Lee.

  • IA-Gov: Chet Culver is out with his first ad of the general election campaign, attacking ex-Gov. Terry Branstad for his dodgy fiscal stewardship of the state during his long tenure in the governor's mansion. No word on the size of the buy.

  • AR-02: Rove acolyte Tim Griffin is out with an internal poll from OnMessage showing him with a 50-34 lead over Joyce Elliott. He also announced the endorsement of weirdo D.C. Morrison - yeah, the guy who ran in the Democratic senate primary. Not really a surprise, though, since Morrison previously said he planned to support John Boozman in that race.

  • NY-23: Good news, everybody! I opened up the ballot box, and Schroedinger's cat fud is very much alive! In fact, there's a 100% chance of a right-wing split in NY-23 no matter what happens now. That's because the Independence Party gave their line to Matt Doheny, who is also seeking the Republican nomination. But of course, our old friend Doug Hoffman is also vying for the GOP nod - and he already has the Conservative Party's endorsement. This means that regardless of who wins the Republican primary, at least one ballot line will remain occupied by a legitimate Republican candidate.

  • ID-01: This is sorta weird. You remember that Vaughn Ward ripped off an Obama speech, right? Well, it turns out that he also ganked large chunks of a speech from Pat Meehan, too, who is running in PA-07. (At least Meehan's a Republican.) What's odd, though, is why is TV news station KTVB investigating this stuff now, weeks after Ward lost the GOP primary? Aren't there actual candidates worth reporting about?

  • UT-02: Those same media organizations (see UT-Sen item above) also had Dan Jones poll the 2nd CD, finding Rep. Jim Matheson leading Claudia Wright 52-33 in the Democratic primary. That's good for Matheson, but by no means great, given his almost comical spending advantage.
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    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/21 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 6/21 (Morning Edition) | 48 comments
    IL-Gov: Cohen has an absurd number of signatures
    133,000. He needs 25,000. I think he'll probably get on the ballot.
    133,000 signed for POS that bashes women?
    Now that's just sad and depressing.
    [ Parent ]
    I'm willing to bet that most of them are conservatives
    and Republicans trying to play mischief.  Although most men who bash women are conservatives and Republicans.
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah they are
    Thats why two Democrat politicians were charged recently with abusing their girlfriends.  
    [ Parent ]
    Sounds like my comment got under your skin
    And by the way it is Democratic politician.  This is a Democratic blog, just in case you forgot.  (And the Republican party is not Democratic...)
    [ Parent ]
    As much as I disagree with user GOPVOTER
    on policy, I think GOPVOTER's response was appropriate, w/r/t electoral strategy.

    i.e., you suggest that such behavior reflects only on Rs, GOPVOTER points out that such a strategy may not work, because of the behavior of some Ds.  

    [ Parent ]
    And the thing is
    I don't think we could point to any polling of abusers that would show which party most of them support. It's best not to engage in inflammatory suppositions.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Not a productive comment
    Consider this a warning.
    [ Parent ]
    A Bridgewater/Lee tie probably means edge Lee, no?
    I have to imagine his Tea Party weirdos will GOTV.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    Bridgewater isn't exactly the RINO candidate
    remember, he finished ahead at the convention.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    General thought about 2010
    I think democrats are going to do surprisingly well in the house and surprisingly poorly in the senate. Reason being is that House races tend to be primarily local. and any attempt to nationalize house races usually leads to be seen as out of touch (see NY-23, PA-12). So absent of major scandals democrats will probably keep house races localized. The opposite is true with senate races which tend to be nationalized (MA 2010, RI 2006)  so the national anti-whatever environment   will affect senate races more profoundly.  
    Disagree, it can easily be the opposite just as often......
    Democrats gained 27 House seats in 1982 with Reagan battered by double-digit unemployment and low job approval, but we had a net loss of one Senate seat that same day!

    Speaking more broadly, if anything I'd say a Senate race is easier to frame as a choice between candidates, since it's much more high-profile and arguments about your particular opponent more easily cut through the clutter.

    House races don't get close voter scrutiny until much closer to the election, and a wave more easily can overcome individual candidates since individual campaigns can get lost in the clutter.  This distinguishes from special elections, where that doesn't happen as much and sometimes not at all.

    I do think NY-23 and PA-12 are good signs for us, and even HI-01 isn't bad insofar as Djou failed to reach 40%.  Waves usually do get reflected in competitive specials, and indeed it's rare that they don't.  But I wouldn't extrapolate that we'll do better in House races than Senate races.

    And I think really current events and voter persuasion are going to keep affecting voters' thinking, it's not over yet anyway.  The jury's not even out, they're still in the jury box watching the trial.  So we could improve or implode based on the economy, oil spill, and other things over the coming weeks and months.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    This was partially due to Republican gains in 1980
    Republicans were defending House seats from 1980 (where they made substantial gains) but Senate seats from 1976. Now, this dynamic does apply to the current situation (2008 being a much more pro-Dem year than 2004).
    [ Parent ]
    Localization is a two sided coin
    Localization of races helps in some areas, but it could be politically dangerous in others.  I think the Pennsylvania races offer great examples of how localization can play out.  Localization will save the Democrats in PA-3, PA-4, PA-10, PA-12 and PA-17.  A nationalization of the race easily overwhelm the Democrats here, but as long as the politics remains local and they campaign on bringing home the bacon, they win.

    Localization would likely be deadly in PA-6, PA-7 and PA-8.  The farther you go down the ballot, the more Republican these areas become.  The Republicans hold sizable advantages in the number of local and state officeholders in these districts with PA-6 being the only one somewhat balanced.  PA-7 and PA-8 are heavily Republican at the local and state level and arguably only go Democrat compared relatively to the rest of the state when races get nationalized.  

    Lesson is simple.  Localization will save the rural conservaDems and the majority, but it will likely kill a number of suburban progressive types.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Great analysis!
    Makes me think of my metro area and that very much makes sense.  MN-6 needs to be local while MN-3 needs to be national. Greater state vs suburbs again. (People try to call the non-metro area here the great state area  vs out state to be polite, or Minnesota nice if you will.)
    [ Parent ]
    Problem for both parties...
    This local/national divide really shows why our party system is so out of wack.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Hypothesis w/r/t nationalization/localization
    Factors favoring Nationalization

    1) It requires overriding national issues
    2) It can be strengthened by a well-known national platform
    3) It happens more often in Presidential years

    Factors favoring localization

    4) Strong candidates (i.e. non-generic Ds and Rs)
    5) Overriding local issues (e.g. Yucca Mt in NV)
    6) General voter concerns outside of the general national debate (e.g. dairy price supports in rural WI).

    [ Parent ]
    IL-Sen
    What is a teacher?  I was considered a Teaching Assistant in college even though I was referred to as a Research Assistant by my boss and my scope of employment was entirely research oriented.  Apparently the administration called me a teaching assistant even though I never went into the classroom to actually teach.  Now on resumes, I list being a TA on my work experience section.  I was not classified that by my boss, but the administration loved classifying me in such a way.

    Seeing Kirk was on some sort of work study at the time, I am curious if there is a similar academic bureaucratic reason for it.  Again this is a great example of why we should all be skeptical of academic bureaucrats.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    The issue is not anything you discuss, but rather whether Kirk misled regarding...
    ...his past work experience.

    It sounds like he did, although I'm still holding fire personally because it's not clear to me how his words came across to the audience and in what context he was speaking.  And I can't really say the details interest me that much anyway, because ultimately it's up to voters to judge, and I'm more interested in their judgment.

    So far, voters are judging Kirk harshly, much more so than Connecticut voters are judging Blumenthal.  I think the breadth of the accusations against Kirk, the fact of paper trails on some of this stuff, have a lot to do with that.

    Whatever, I'm just rooting for Alexi to pull out a win.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    After everything we've seen
    I've come to the conclusion that Kirk is a lyin sonofabitch, and even though I'm not wild about Giannoulias, I'm pulling fully for him to win now.  The one thing that really gets me more than anything else is blatant and repetitive lying.  We can't afford Mark Kirk in the Senate.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    exactly my opinion
    Kirk reaks of stereotypical douchebag politician.  Is the main picture of him on his website him kissing a baby?
    [ Parent ]
    Kirk vs. Blumenthal, through NYT
    I just wonder who the NYT as been going after harder.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    Using a generic conceptual framework...
    You should ask yourself "Was I in fact a teacher?" and "Would I appear to be a teacher to a reasonable and informed third party?".  From what you advised us on your personal experience, the only thing that would make a third party believe that you were a teacher was because your resume has a title of "Teaching Assistant".  If anything, you were more likely to be a "Teacher's Assistant" (i.e. you might have assisted a "Teacher" in other work such as research, but you didn't provide any "Teaching" to students).  Your title as it reads today as "Teaching Assistant" could mislead the general public.  There's a difference between the terms "Teaching Assistant" and "Teacher's Assistant", although I personally don't know if someone ever lists themselves as a "Teacher's assistant".  If the college gave you the title as "Teaching Assistant", I would make it abundantly clear to any users of your resume that you didn't actually provide any teaching services in this capacity.

     

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    Research Assistant
    I agreed with Tarheeman. You should list your title as "Research Assistant." TAs teach at least one recitation per week for each course.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    But said recitations can often vary widely in content
    from being homework sessions to full-fledged substitute lectures.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    That is true
    That is why it's so important to not compromise our integrity with our resumes.  Recitations can widely vary depending on the nature and size of the class.  As such, we should use our own judgment on how to properly reflect the services provided on our resumes.  In addition, we should add proper bullet points on the services that were actually rendered.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04
    [ Parent ]
    I actually taught the entire course myself
    with mere supervision by a full-time faculty member.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Many years ago....
    I was a "Teaching Assistant" for a statistics professor at UNC-CH.  I did nothing but grade homework, perform administrative work, and assist on various projects for the professor.  In theory, I was nothing more than a glorified administrative assistant for the professor.  If I remember correctly, I changed the title on my resume to properly reflect the services that I actually provided.  Most employers know that job titles can be misleading, so the best thing is not to be overly aggressive on the title listed on your resume.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04
    [ Parent ]
    NRSC takes CoH Lead
    From Hotline On Call:
    For the first time this cycle, the NRSC has reported having more cash on hand than its Dem counterpart, spending frugally even as the DSCC has outraised its rival.

    The NRSC raised just $3.6M in May, but spent only $2.5M. The committee ended the month with $18.1M in the bank.

    Dems, meanwhile, raised $5M for May but spent $4.56M last month. The committee has $17.57M in the bank. Neither the DSCC nor the NRSC has any debt.

    Both party committees have begun spending on infrastructure in several states, and the difference between the 2 is negligible in the long run. The DSCC has raised slightly more -- about $66.8M to the NRSC's $64.1M -- but it's the first time a GOP committee has more money physically in the bank than their Dem rivals.


    Hmm, I'll have to think about donating to them now.
    I haven't given anything, ever (other than buying trinkets like pins), but this might be a good time to donate to them.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    There is speculation that Michael Steele is unwittingly helping the RNSC......
    A lot of Republican moneybags hate Steele, so they're giving more money to other committees and to candidates directly, and none to the RNC.  It's just a redistribution of the same dollars.

    Same thing happened to the DNC when Howard Dean took over.  I think his 50-state strategy was smart and proved largely vindicated, but he was a poor fundraiser hamstrung by a lot of Democratic moneybags shunning the DNC during his tenure.  It ultimately didn't hurt us because those same high rollers still gave, they just redistributed by giving more to others, and less or none to the DNC.

    Regarding the current Senate committee totals, I'm curious to see what the spending was for.  The DSCC spent $2.1 million more than the RNSC, and that's a big difference for May, not even summer yet.  Hotline indicated the party committees are spending on state-level infrastructure, but I'd like to know what we're doing where, compared to the Repubs.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Oh wait this is about the NRSC
    I thought this was about the NRCC.

    But still, not a bad time to give.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    How much did the DSCC spend on Lincoln?

    [ Parent ]
    And Specter.

    [ Parent ]
    Specter
    the DSCC spent 300k, but I'm told that all the money they spent on Specter was raised by Specter himself. Lincoln: nothing.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12
    [ Parent ]
    $500,000
    This article says some of it was disclosed in their April campaign finance report, but that others would be disclosed in the June report.

    From CQ:

    The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent more than half a million dollars to assist Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) ahead of his primary loss to Rep. Joe Sestak, newly filed documents show.

    According to the DSCC's April campaign finance report, which it filed Thursday in the Senate's public records office in Washington, the organization spent $540,594 on "coordinated" expenditures to support Specter through the end of last month, including $492,247 in April alone. Sestak won the May 18 primary by 54 percent to 46 percent.

    National party committees are permitted to spent some campaign funds in concert with preferred candidates. These coordinated expenditures are subject to limits.

    The bulk of the DSCC's outlays, $375,000, went to Multi Media Services, a media-buying firm in Alexandria, Va., to place pro-Specter television ads on Pennsylvania stations.

    The DSCC also spent some coordinated funds on polling, payroll and consulting expenses.

    Any additional coordinated funds the DSCC spent in Pennsylvania will be itemized on its May report, which is due June 20.

    They've also spent money in North Carolina; I think the debate between Marshall & Cunningham said the DSCC donated $100,000 to Cunningham.

    [ Parent ]
    FL-Sen and NY-23
    FL-Sen: Looks like Crist is still going to trounce Meek...but in a totally unexpected way.  And this time, looks like we might actually want that to happen.

    NY-23: (Nethack reference) You feel as if someone put a ring of conflict on.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    I
    have my doubts that Meek will even be the nominee at this point. I am hoping for a Greene win so we can all unite behind Crist. Although the negative is of course that Greene could go nuclear on Crist with his infinite amount of money he got from screwing people over.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    There are two downsides of Greene winning, but yes we'd still root for Crist......
    The first is that yes, Greene could go nuclear on Crist, but I think that's offset by the fact Greene would have to go nuclear also on Rubio.  I don't think Greene can successfully just trade places with Crist, he has to drag down Rubio, too.

    The second is that Greene winning the primary gives him a certain legitimacy that ensures he'll do better in November with Democratic voters than he seems to be doing now.  That makes him arguably more of a threat to Crist than if Meek wins the primary but is plum broke afterward.  And Greene winning the primary makes it tough for Democratic public officials to disown him.  After all, this isn't Scott Cohen or Alvin Greene who snuck through unnoticed.  Jeff Greene is high-profile, by his own choice, and his winning the primary carries a certain amount of legitimacy.

    All that said, I don't doubt that a bunch of Democrats will publicly back Crist anyway if Greene wins the primary, saying simply that as a matter of conscience they cannot back someone like Greene.  I think he's controversial enough that some people can get away with that.  I don't think the DSCC can get away with it, but state and local Democrats can do so, and they will since Greene likely will prove toxic to other Democrats.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Or maybe this is a
    Xanatos Gambit from Jeff Greene...

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
    [ Parent ]
    That was a truly great Florida poll
    Rubio is in deep deep crap, and that's all I care about, him losing.

    And I expected Sink to have been sunk by Chiles, but that doesn't seem to be the case.  Given the competitiveness of the Republican primary, it may actually be good that Chiles is in the race... this will give disaffected voters of the losing Republican candidate a place to go without supporting Sink.

    The normal conventional wisdom that Chiles takes too many votes from her to win is probably the best bet, but still this is a tremendously encouraging poll.  

    Right now Sink's chances of being Governor are better than Rubio's chances of being Senator.  Cool.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree with you on everything, tommypaine. Except that I doubt Chiles...
    ...will pull in the votes on election day that show up in these early polls.  I still don't buy that his name is enough.  In the voting booth people get serious, they don't throw votes away very easily.

    I agree totally that right now Sink looks stronger than Rubio, and who would've thought that a few months ago?

    This has been the most unpredictable cycle in my adult life.  Race after race, I've gone by what I know about candidates and campaigns and polling and voting behavior to predict outcomes, and I've been wrong a bunch.

    I'm with you on "anybody but Rubio" in particular.  I'm now rooting for Crist, although I'll change my mind in a heartbeat if Crist unpredictably veers back to the right or if Meek shows signs of life and makes a strong push.

    But having Rick Scott for Sink to run against also gives me hope.  From a Democratic perspective I don't see how Scott, even if he wins, will be any worse than McCollum.  But at least potential swing voter distrust of him gives Sink a chance to win.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    TX-Gov: Public Policy Pollling hinting new poll will upend conventional wisdom......
    PPP tweeted today:

    Just polled a race no one except Ras has polled in months and our numbers may really change the conventional wisdom on it

    No, they didn't say what race, but Pennsylvania and Texas won their last contest and are where PPP was going next, and Pennsylvania has been polled by quite a few outfits beyond just Rasmussen.

    So I'm guessing we're talking TX-Gov, where polling has, indeed, been scarce, and I can't recall anyone but Rasmussen post-primary.

    I'm hopeful this means White is doing REAL well!

    Or, maybe he's getting the crap kicked out of him?

    Rasmussen has had White up in the orbit of 10 points, a 48-40 margin last time and 52-41 before that.  It was 44-40 immediately post-primary.  All those numbers actually looked reasonable, since Rasmussen bounces around wildly when it comes to passing the laugh test.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    Huh?
    Ras just did a poll that showed Perry ahead 48-40.  I thinke Perry has generally been winning Ras polls.
    [ Parent ]
    Oops, yup, I flipped the names by mistake, brain fart. I didn't MEAN...
    ...that White was winning, I meant Perry was winning.

    So I'm interested in what "surprise" PPP has tomorrow, and I hope it's a dead heat.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Republican Internal Poll Strategy
    http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

    Above article comments on the R's releasing more internal polls than D's

    Joe Cooper

    lol, stay classy JD
    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    What an ass
    And hypocrite. I can't stand those commercials. Or JD Hayworth.  
    [ Parent ]
    SSP Daily Digest: 6/21 (Morning Edition) | 48 comments

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