SurveyUSA for KSTP (6/14-16, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parens):
Mark Dayton (DFL): 39
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 26
Matt Entenza (DFL): 22
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Mark Dayton (DFL): 38 (34)
Tom Emmer (R): 35 (42)
Tom Horner (IP): 12 (9)
Undecided: 15 (15)
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 33 (33)
Tom Emmer (R): 35 (41)
Tom Horner (IP): 12 (9)
Undecided: 21 (17)
Matt Entenza (DFL): 33 (31)
Tom Emmer (R): 37 (42)
Tom Horner (IP): 12 (10)
Undecided: 18 (16)
(MoE: ±2.5%)
The newest SurveyUSA poll of the Minnesota governor's race shows an unlikely political comeback underway: ex-Sen. Mark Dayton, who retired in 2006 because few people expected him to be able to win re-election, is now the favorite in the DFL primary against DFL-endorsed Margaret Anderson Kelliher, and also the only Dem currently beating Republican Tom Emmer.
It's a better set of numbers for the Dems than the ones put up in the previous SurveyUSA poll, where Emmer had a substantial lead in the midst of a post-convention bounce. These numbers instead look much closer to the more recent MPR poll, which had Dayton beating Kelliher by 10 in the primary and Emmer by 4 in the general (while Emmer narrowly beat MAK and Entenza). The previous SurveyUSA poll was distinguished by much demographic weirdness in the crosstabs, but today's poll has many of the same oddities (the Democratic primary sample in today's poll, for instance, is only 34% liberal, is only 56% in the Twin Cities, and actually has 22% Tea Party supporters in it, while those 18-34 year olds still continue to be big Emmer backers)... so I suspect there is some real movement away from Emmer as his bounce fades, rather than merely a more favorable sample.
