I had noted them in the open thread earlier.

I think this is pretty exhaustive for competitive races:

Defense:

Ben Leming (TN-06)
Ravi Sangisetty (LA-03)
Matt Zeller (NY-29)

Offense:

Bill Hedrick (CA-44)
Jon Hulburd (AZ-03)
Steve Raby (AL-05)

Competitive Primaries:

LA-02 - Richmond v. LaFonta
MA-10 - Keating v. O'Leary
NH-02 - Swett v. Kuster
RI-01 - Cicilline v. Lynch

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 03:48:07 AM UTC

The omissions, that is.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 03:49:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yo make a good resume

I would like to see LA-02, MA-10 and NH-02 in the list but still we have unsolved primaries.

In the defense group I understand not why the candidates of LA-03 and NY-29 are not in the list looking to the other politicians included.

In the offense group I would add two candidates more:

FL-05: J Piccillo
IN-03: T Hayhurst

J Piccillo can be weaker than other democrats of this group but I think the republican candidate for FL-05 district can be weaker than standard republicans too.

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by: abgin @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 05:16:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good call on FL-05

We should always target open seats, and yes, FL-05 is R+9 and PVIs are firmer in Florida than in a lot of states, but Piccillo has a decent bio for the district and he's feisty. Unfortunately, he's up against the Hernando County Sheriff Richard Nugent who seems to have mostly consolidated Republican support thanks to Ginny Brown-Waite pulling an Evan Bayh. That said, Sheriff Nugent does seem a bit hapless.

The only one I disagree with is IN-03. I like Hayhurst, think he's a great candidate and a good man, but he now has to face Marlin Stutzman instead of unpopular Mark Souder. I think our resources are best spent elsewhere than a R+14 with an above-average Republican candidate.

Also for the next round of R2B, I'd love to see KS-02 on there. Jenkins has had a rocky freshman term and Sean Tevis could prove to be a very strong challenger.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 06:05:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree with you about the resources

Surely Hayhurst will not be favored in the race but my point about him is what he can be in the same level than other candidates included in the R2B. As example he lead still fundraising in this race.

I glad you think the same about FL-05, this can be a district for fight. Is not easy find weaker republican candidates for a R+ district without democratic incumbent. And the way of the former congresswoman for let him without republican challengers can turn off to many republicans in this district.

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by: abgin @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 06:49:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed about IN-03

I've been boosting Hayhurst, but realistically he has no chance against Stutzman, who's an excellent candidate.  To compare with AZ-03, which is only two points bluer, there isn't a single GOP candidate in AZ-03 who's as good as Stutzman (though there are plenty who could beat Hulburd).  In a more flush year, I'd love to reward Hayhurst for fighting the good fight, but those resources are better spent actually electing someone like Tarryl Clark or John Callahan.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 10:56:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

+2 on Clark and Callahan!

Those are two of our strongest candidates in the whole country, and I know they'd be two of our stronger representatives over time.  

To knock off Dent and Bachmann this year will be kind of difficult (I have both races at Lean Republican), but with a good campaign, and maybe a gaffe or two on Bachmann's part (I doubt Dent would mess up like her), these seats are gettable.  

FL-5 and IN-3 however, are probably not possible this year.  (IN-3 I have as a Likely R seat, FL-5 isn't even on the radar screen.)

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 12:36:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That, and Hayhurst can largely self-fund

He put in a lot of his own money last time, and as far as I know, is willing to do so again.  So if he writes the checks early on, and for some reason this race heats up, the party can step in towards the end.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 14:03:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

w/r/t NY-29

Can't find a link, but I think I remember reading that David Nachbar has not ruled out running if the general were in November. Nachbar ran against Massa in the primary in '06 and I think '08. So it still may be a contested primary.

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by: tietack @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 13:53:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TN-06

Ben Leming's only fault is that he has a primary challenger. TN-06 has been Dem for 27 years. We have to put up a fight in Al Gore's old seat!  

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by: TNDem @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 04:13:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

TN-6 is gone, Gordon is the only reason it remained D

There is absolutely no way in this cycle we can retain TN-6 (barring scandal), it is the House equivalent of the open ND-Sen. Any DCCC money spent there could in the end have proved the difference in a myriad of other close House races nationwide.  

Democrat: TN-8

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by: wtndem @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 14:40:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

RI-01: Waste of resources

that is a safe seat.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 08:43:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Almost all of the suggestions from the first diary are good ones

I will reiterate my suggestion from the first diary. Paul Ryan. He's become increasingly polarizing and hard-right, so he should be more beatable than in the past. And his proposals are dangerous. Defeat him before he has the power to enact them. The Democrat challenging Paul Ryan needs to get R2B support.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 04:30:10 AM UTC

Not targetting Paul Ryan is a travesty

Republicans had no trouble targetting powerful chairmen like David Obey and John Spratt, why not return the favor?

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by: RayWaltz @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 04:42:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Whoa

For some reason, I always assumed that Ryan had a pretty safe seat, considering how hard-right his budgetary proposals are. But his seat, WI-01, is only R+2, and trending blue. I know he's pretty entrenched, but do we have any credible candidates? Because pulling off an upset against him would be awesome.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 05:42:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

With a bit of good luck this year in Wisconsin

Maybe we can think in a blue leaning redistricting for 2012.

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by: abgin @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 06:52:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ryan and budgetary issues

Paul Ryan has always been aggressive on budgetary issues.  I remember him being negative towards the Bush administration on a number of occasions on budgetary issues.

I doubt being a deficit hawk is going to get him in much trouble.  His district is roughly 60 percent white collar and heavily suburbanized.   Being focused on budgetary issues has never sunk a Republican in such a district.  Republicans are sunk in similar districts when they start getting involved in a bunch of culture war nonsense.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 12:56:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More seats the D's should target

AK-AL-Crawford v. Young
AR-03-Whittaker v. Womack
FL-10-Justice v. Young
GA-07-Heckman v. Republican Primary Winner (Honestly, I think more Iraq War veterans need to be elected to office. They have a great political profile, having served honorably to defend our freedom.)
IL-13-Harper v. Biggert
IL-16-Gaulrapp v. Manzullo
MI-03-Mayhue v. Republican Primary Winner
MI-06-Cooney v. Republican Primary Winner (If Jack Hoogendyk can topple Fred Upton in the primary, then we may have much more of a chance here than we think. Although, if Upton is the nominee, we can pretty much write it off)
MT-AL-McDonald v. Rehberg
OH-14-O'Neill v. LaTourette
TX-32-Raggio v. Sessions

What do you all think?

16, Male, MD-8.

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by: Danny Ricci @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 13:28:35 PM UTC

Woah

way too ambitious, the DCCC's resources are limited.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 13:36:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I definitely agree on MI-03

If this were 2006 or 2008 then our national resources would be heavily targeting that open seat.  

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 14:09:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just my own thoughts...

AK-AL  Unless the shoe drops on Young, I'm hesitant on spending money for Team Blue.

AR-03  It might be an open seat, but I don't believe we can make much out of this race in the current environment.

FL-10  I have no problem with spending some money on Justice.  It would be an uphill battle for him, but this district is fairly swingish by nature.  It might plant some seeds down the line should Young retire before 2012.

GA-07  At first glance, I'd be hesitant to spend any money here.  I don't know enough about our candidate to make an informed decision.

IL-13  A fairly entrenched incumbent in a slight Republican tilt district will be an uphill battle, especially in this environment.

IL-16  See my thoughts on IL-13.

MI-03  Fairly Republican district.  Don't know enough about our candidate to  make a credible decision.

MI-06  I would spend some money on this race for only the reason you have listed.  The Democrats have a chance if Upton is defeated.

MT-AL  Rehberg would be hard to defeat.

OH-14  I don't see LaTourette losing this cycle.

TX-32  Another uphill battle in a bad political environment for the Dems.


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 14:47:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We shouldn't contest it because of the Republican environment

I disagree. I think the worst thing we could do is give these Republicans a free ride, especially in the open seats. The Democrats pick up so many seats in 06 and 08 because they contested a huge number of seats, many of which didn't look winnable. We need to do the same in 2010. Even if we don't win we're sending a message to these voters that we aren't giving up on them, and we're holding Republicans' feet to the fire.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 16:23:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's not about a "Republican Free Ride"

I'm implying that we should pick our battles wisely this year.  In 2006 and 2008, we didn't have many seats that we had to defend.  In 2010, we have a boatload of risky seats.  I can't defend spending money on TX-32 for a virtually unwinnable seat when we are at the same time defending seats like NH-01, NH-02, OH-01, etc.  Unlike 2006 and 2008, we have to play some serious defense.  In 2010, I'd rather spend money on a seat where we have a 50% chance of retaining than spending money on a seat where we have little if any chance of taking over.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 18:44:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MT-AL and FL-10 probably the best bets here

Young could actually be beaten in a good year with a good challenger. Don't know if Justice fits that profile yet though. Poor fundraising doesn't help.

Rehberg is someone Dems should definitely be looking at running a strong campaign against this cycle, if only to try to beat him up before he (likely) runs in 2012 against Tester.

Hoogendyk won't win in MI-06. I'm not really sure what he's hoping to accomplish in this race, but he'll get smashed in the primary. Republicans here were scratching their heads when he decided to get into the race, and he's definitely not going to get any institutional support.

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by: MIJunkie @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 15:31:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They just need another label

Something other than "Red To Blue" for the "Keeping It Blue" list -- PA-07 and the ones listed above.

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by: Adam B. @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 13:59:40 PM UTC

I like "Ret To Blue" label

But some races here are not "Red To Blue".

Would be good change something.

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by: abgin @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 17:11:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How about Bill Hedrick in CA44

I don't understand why he's not on the list.

68, Dem-leaning indie, MI-8

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by: jimmich @ Tue Jun 15, 2010 at 17:44:07 PM UTC

Hasn't

his fund-raising been really crappy? The dude is a solid recruit for Dems, but he needs to kick the fundraising machine to "On".

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

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by: californianwonder @ Sat Jun 19, 2010 at 00:43:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]