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AR, ME, NJ, SC & SD Results Thread

by: DavidNYC

Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 8:30 PM EDT


10:19pm: It's a moveable feast - join us in the new thread.
10:09pm: I think I forgot to mention that the AP called SD-Gov (R) for Dennis Daugaard a few minutes ago. He'll take on Scott Heidepriem in November.
10:06pm: In AR-01, Chad Causey is a little bit behind where he needs to be from round one in order to beat Tim Wooldridge. In AR-02, Joyce Elliott trails slightly, but she's actually out-performing her first-round share by a lot, suggesting she'll take the win. See our model for more.
10:03pm: With 12% reporting in Maine, Paul LePage has a 34-17 lead over Les Otten on the R side, while it's a very tight 31-30 for Libby Mitchell over Steve Rowe on the D side.
10:00pm: It's ten o'clock - do you know where your polling place is? Well, it's closed now if you live in IA, MT or NV.
9:52pm: Ayup - the AP calls a runoff between Haley and Barrett. Monster failures on the part of McMaster and Bauer.
9:45pm: We project that Nikki Haley will miss out on avoiding a runoff by about 5,000 votes. Meanwhile, in SC-04, Gowdy is down to 42%, but Inglis is at just 26%, and the AP has called it for a runoff between those two men.
9:44pm: That's funny - AR-01, AR-02 and AR-03 are all 51-49 right now.
9:39pm: Compared to his round one showing, Halter is doing three points worse in the territory that's already reported.
9:35pm: Hmm, so, things aren't really looking so hot for Bill Halter so far. Lincoln's up 53-47, but much of what's reported is (narrowly) Halter country.
9:33pm: AP calls it for Jon Runyan in NJ-03 (R). His 56% looks pretty unimpressive, if you ask me.
9:31pm: It seems all but certain that the GOP primaries in SC-01 and SC-03 (both open seats) will go to runoffs. No one has more than 30% in either race.
9:23pm: While NJ-06 and NJ-12 are not high on anyone's takeover lists, the establishment GOP picks in each race - Diane Gooch and Scott Sipprelle - are both trailing teabaggers, as nj1122 points out.
9:19pm: John Runyan, the establishment choice by a hundred yards in NJ-03, is only up 54-46 on Justin Murphy with about 38% in.
9:15pm: Back in SC-04, Trey Gowdy has 49.6% of the vote with 50% reporting. That rounds up to 50, of course, but he'll actually need 50%+1 to clear the runoff hurdle.
9:13pm: In SD-AL, establishment fave Chris Nelson only has a narrow lead over Kristi Noem, 41-39 with 25% in.
9:12pm: With 19% of the vote in in SD-Gov (R), Dennis Daugaard has a huge 53-21 lead over Scott Munsterman. Daugaard is generally considered to be the more conservative contender.
9:11pm: Blanche Lincoln up 54-46 with about 2% reporting.
9:09pm: Oy. Let's hope not.
9:07pm: Note that our model for Arkansas is being thrown off right now by the absentee votes. As more votes come in, it should start to make more sense.
9:03pm: Polls have also now closed in the western part of South Dakota (they closed in the east an hour ago).
9:00pm: The AP has called SC-Gov (D) for Sheheen, who wins the Dem nod without a runoff.
8:56pm: No results in from Maine yet, but we also have a model (more of a back-of-the-envelope projector) that aggregates results by county for ME-Gov.
8:51pm: Meanwhile, in SC-04, our model is predicting a runoff. Trey Gowdy has 44% and Rep. Bob Inglis has a truly feeble 26%. Even if Inglis survives to a runoff, he'll be in extremely bad shape.
8:50pm: With a little over a third of the vote in, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen is pulling an impressive 58% in SC-Gov (D), while Jim Rex trails at 23 and Robert Ford is at 19. Sheheen might avoid a runoff here. On the GOP side, Nikki Haley is at 46 and Gresham Barrett at 26.
8:48pm: Looks like a handful of votes have shown up in Arkansas, but zero precincts are listed as reporting, so I'm guessing absentees and the like.
8:33pm: We have a bitchin' model for the AR-Sen runoff, which you can check out here. We'll keep it updated throughout the night so that you can see our latest projections.
Polls have now closed in Arkansas, and we're still counting votes in ME, NJ & SC.

RESULTS:

DavidNYC :: AR, ME, NJ, SC & SD Results Thread
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AR, ME, NJ, SC & SD Results Thread | 157 comments
Tim Scott surely won't clear the run-off mark in SC-01
With 8% reporting, he's leading with 29%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
First Precincts in Arkansas
Halter 306
Lincoln 288

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

From P'co
Lincoln 459
Halter 446
[ Parent ]
She has a 13% lead now
Granted, it's with 0% reporting.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Here's rooting for Womack
Sure don't want another GOP female in Congress.
Seriously?
Root against any Republican you want, but that's not an acceptable reason.
[ Parent ]
i'll give you the benefit of the doubt
and assume you mean this b/c the only GOP woman you can think of in the House is Bachmann, but there are many others I don't mind, like Bono Mack, Ros-Lehtinen, etc.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
I would much rather
have a majority of congress be female, but I also would like to consolidate the female vote with the Democrats. Best way to do that is to keep any GOP females from gaining power.
[ Parent ]
I don't think this is going to be
A very fruitful line of discussion, so let's cut it off here.
[ Parent ]
My deep apologies
I just think most men are a lost cause, and I'd rather the madmen be men.
[ Parent ]
With 29% in, Haley's approaching 48%
I suspect if McMaster drops below 15%, she'll clear the run-off.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Projection Model
DavidNYC, can you elaborate on what exactly your Arkansas projection model is please?
The Model...
compares each candidate's performance today to their head-to-head performance and uses that, plus results already reporting, to project a result.

There are three projections for each race, depending on the parameters (Traditional, Swing Only, and Floating).

[ Parent ]
To elaborate further:
The model relies on two things:

  • Current results.
  • Each candidate's relative performance now with their head-to-head performance in the first round.

This is used in combination with the traditional linear projection. The hole in the traditional linear combination model is that we can't do anything for counties where nothing has reported.

So there are two sets of quasi-projections:

  • A projection solely using the relative swing between Round 1 and now.
  • A projection solely derived from a linear extrapolation of current results per county.

The three break down like this:

  • Traditional: uses the linear projection where available, uses the swing projection only for counties that have no precincts reporting.
  • Swing only: as it sounds
  • Floating: uses a mix of the swing and traditional projections, becoming more reliant on traditional as more counties report.

Hope this helps.  

[ Parent ]
Thanks
Indeed Jeff, this definitely clears things up, thanks a lot!
[ Parent ]
I don't get that model
and I'm a modeler myself.
Why can't I read read, not edit the formulas? And why aren't the results for Round 1 not already in there? I don't understand what that all means.
Also, why are you only listing 2 counties per CD? Are they representative/swing counties?

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
Confused
I agree with you, I'm lost as to what is going on in this spreadsheet, and I'm a grad student studying poli-sci and statistics.  
[ Parent ]
Those are candidate names
Not county names.
[ Parent ]
Hope
Halter, Causey, and Wills can win it down in Arkansas tonight.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Tea Party in NJ
Tea partiers doing well in NJ, especially Monmouth County.

Corsi leading Sipprelle 56-43 in 12th and Little leading Gooch 53-47 in 6th from the Monmouth County results, a lot of votes there too.

http://co.monmouth.nj.us/elect...

I hope Charlie Cook enjoys that tasty face egg
For actually thinking that Pallone and Holt would face competitive races against Gooch and Sipprelle when the two repubs are struggling against nobodies in their respective primaries.
[ Parent ]
NJ 6 and 12
Mercer County may save Sipprelle, he leads 4,171 to 4,122 over Corsi with almost all the votes in Monmouth County in but still a bunch left in Mercer.

Little's need in Monmouth county narrowed slightly to 9% over Gooch.

[ Parent ]
NJ-03
Runyan only leading Murphy 55-45. Upset?
Nah, Runyan will run up huge numbers in Burlington County
And Runyan had a cameo in an episode of "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia," which gives me warm feelings.
[ Parent ]
Politico calls it for Sheheen


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Mistake in SC-01 Reporting?
Ben Frasier isn't really winning, right?
Alvin Greene
Zero cash on hand.
Zero raised.
Unemployed.
Lives with his parents.

Meet your Democratic nominee for Senate in South Carolina.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Alvin Greene
Yeah, I was just going to ask . . . because he doesn't have a campaign website, so far as I can tell.  This could be the strangest result of the night.
[ Parent ]
How the hell did this happen?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Rawl 'saved his gunpowder' for the fall
... granted it wasn't a lot of gunpowder, but he did not lift a finger.  No emails, nothing.  Took it for granted that the average voter is as intuned as SSP readers.  

Inexcusable on Rawls part, and the SC party as well.  After 2008, this is especially inexcusable.

Voters were choosing between two names they didn't recognize, and the alpha-first one won.

Sheheen's big win is consolation though.  I had some hope that he would take it big, and he did.  The stars continue to align for him. This is now a winnable race for Democrats.  

[ Parent ]
I'm really confused...
why did he win? isn't Vic Rawl a perfectly legitimate candidate? why is he losing to this nobody? this is just as ridiculous as Kesha Rogers from TX-22.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Wow, what a joke.
But given that the Democrats nominated some quasi-libertarian guy in 2008, not entirely surprising.
[ Parent ]
Don't be hasty
Rawl is leading in Richland and Charleston, which still have many precincts to report. It will be close though.
[ Parent ]
Is he a short, bald, stocky, funny man?

[ Parent ]
He
actually looks pretty good physically. He is 32, black, muscular and a former soldier.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Wow...
Weirdest candidate of the cycle.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Weirdly AWESOME.
http://www.wolfereports.com/20...

He's 32, recently got out of the Army, unemployed, and living at his dad's place in rural Clarendon County. For whatever reason, he showed up at S.C. Democratic Party headquarters in March looking to file for the U.S. Senate. But that's not the weird part.

The strange bit is that he showed up with the $10,400 check for the filing fee. As a personal check. When told it had to come from a campaign account, he evidently went to a bank and quickly came back with a check that could be accepted.


[ Parent ]
He's got to be some kind of Republican plant
I can't believe any serious Democrat would do something as bizarre as this, when it costs them $10 grand.
[ Parent ]
He
actually said he spent the money because if he would have kept it, it would have discouraged him from getting a job.  Don't ask me.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Move over Dale Peterson...
... I have a new favorite candidate.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
DeMint has twice as many votes as Greene and Rawl COMBINED


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
George Costanza is gonna be a Senator! Yippee! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
absentee ballots not looking good for Halter
I don't know if absentee ballots skew towards Lincoln but he definitely seems to be under performing at the moment. He better win election day returns.  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
Lincoln's up 17% in Pulakski, AR's most populous county
If Halter wants to win, this can't happen.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Yeah...
I now see that my earlier prediction of a double-digit Halter victory was a pipe dream. He can still win, but it will be close.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
SC-04
Gowdy is at 50%. He may end Inglis tonight.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Too much of Greenville left.
Gowdy will be below 50%
[ Parent ]
Doubt it
Most outstanding precincts are in Greenville, where Inglis leads 34-27. He'll be toast in the runoff though.
[ Parent ]
Nice returns in Saint Francis for Halter
He has increased his support from the previous election in the county. Basically, he needs to hope that his election day returns in Pulaski are better than the early votes or it will already be over.
On the bright side
I recall reading that Lincoln has the better ground game, and therefore it's natural that she should be up in early votes. IMO Halter's not going to be winning by a blowout, but there's still a chance he'll win.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
He is up in every county where
any election day votes are in according to Politico.  May be a good sign, or a total fluke.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
My focus is on the four most populous counties - Benton, Washington, Jefferson, and most importantly, Pulaski
Right now, Lincoln's also up 2-to-1 in Jefferson, which is troubling.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Tim Scott leads in MS-01 with an amazing 26%


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
SC-01
And look at the Democratic race. It won't matter if that result holds up.
[ Parent ]
Someone who knows SC politics...
If Frasier and Scott win, will it be the state's first Congressional race between two African-American nominees?

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
No, SC-6th had Clyburn and a black GOPer

[ Parent ]
You mean SC-1, Potential First GOP Black Congressman since '03
Scott is endorsed by The Club for Growth and is running in a very Republican district (Henry Brown winning by about 5 percentage points in '08 was due to his campaign's ineptness and his opponent's warchest).  Scott will be in a runoff against either Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell or Paul Thurmond.  Both are legacy candidates whose fathers either served as governor, United States senator, or both in South Carolina.  Thurmond has been elected to the Charleston County Council which, ironically, he served on at the same time State Representative Scott was on it.  I think the only other black GOP candidates that have a realistic chance of being elected to Congress are Vernon Parker (AZ-3) and Allen West (FL-22).  Out of the three, Scott is most likely to get elected.    
[ Parent ]
Gowdy back at 50% in SC-04
49% in.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
Halter barely ahead in Scott County
He's only ahead by 8 votes there with one precinct left; last time he won the county by 180 votes.  
Not good...
is there lower turnout than last time? what was the % last time?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Percentages last time
46-34-20

And this time, 52-48.

Lincoln is also ahead in Ouachita by 12% with 9/22 precincts, which Halter won by 1% last time. It could just be random drifting in small counties based on turnout. We will see how Pulaski goes.

[ Parent ]
Last time
there were over 1,000 votes in Scott County.

This time, there aren't even 300.

If turnout really did drop that much, and it's true Lincoln had the superior ground game, bad news for Halter.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
NJ 12
Tea partier Anna Little up 4,389 to 3,595 over establishment choice millionair Diane Gooch in NJ 12 with 83% of the Monmouth County, the little bit of vulnerability that Frank Pallone had appears to be disappearing with this result.
NJ 6*

[ Parent ]
That's NJ-06
but in NJ-12, Scott Sipprelle is currently down 54-46 to his challenger. Not a great night for rich establishment Republican candidates.
[ Parent ]
Oh Shit
I googled Green and this is what I found:

http://www.free-times.com/inde...

He sounds like as much some dude as they come. At least he is a veteran. That is good. The guy doesn't have any website. He has a face book, but its his private account, not a campaign site. WTF? I wonder if his race contributed to his victory. He did not even go to the state convention.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

ok....
now this is just starting to smell fishy.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Could be worse...
Two words...Orly Taitz!
[ Parent ]
Birther
I demand to see her BIRTH CERTIFICATE and her law license.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
No, his race could not possibly have helped him because...
...no one knows he's black.  If he has no web site, and he got no press coverage before tonight, then no one knows what he looks like.

Look, I know maybe no one here lives in South Carolina, but we're the most obsessive campaign junkies in the country who don't actually work full-time on campaigns (and perhaps some of you SSPers actually do just that for a living), and none of us ever heard of the guy before tonight.  It took someone to do some active research tonight for us to unearth that he's black.

So would anyone at all in South Carolina know he's black?

This is just anti-establishment fervor talking, with people voting against a guy whose name they had heard before.  I can't imagine anything else.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Columbia and Oachita Counties
These seem to be the only counties that have enough results that we can make a judgement. Anyone know how Halter performed in those?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
Baxter and Scott too


Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Here's rooting for Libby in ME
More likely to win than Rowe, and she just moved up to 1st, with a five vote lead.

And I don't remember hearing about this LePage person who's whomping on the GOP side.

LePage, a big surprise

This election is very interesting.
[ Parent ]
SC Treasurer
Incumbent Converse Chellis is probably on his way out.  Losing by a 61-39 percent with 63 percent in.
Good result in Baxter for Halter
It's 56%H - 44%L compared to 47H-44L-9M last time. Only 21/41 precincts for the county are in, however.
So, with 70% in, Haley's up to 49%...


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Calhoun County in AR is fully in
Halter won 58-42, and won 47-30 the first time. so not a huge change. in the end this is bad news as he needs a change...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Calhoun is 100% in
with a 58H-42L final. I would note that he increased from the early vote totals, which were 54H-46L in the county. It also compares fairly equal to the last election, 47H-30L-24M. Of course Halter really needs to gain more Morrison votes than Lincoln.
Any links for SD races?
help out a coyote here, thanks.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
go to politico


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
not so easy for those with dial up
i'll try tho

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
www.sdsos.gov
Has good numbers, fast and maps.

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11
[ Parent ]
What just happened with Scott County
The numbers just changed to be much more favorable to Halter... hmm...

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
Sometimes weird things happen
Like back during the KY Primary when results starting coming in, then all of a sudden, reversing and being uncounted...as James L. put it, The Curious Election of Benjamin Button.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Except I bet Button supported the Civil Rights Act!

[ Parent ]
That's a relief...
much better now.
[ Parent ]
Arkansas News site has Halter Up Big
http://arkansasmatters.com/ele...

They have Halter up 59-41 percent.

Those numbers are completely false
Politico already has Lincoln at a greater number than that, and with LESS precincts reporting.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Probably false but
They have around the same number of precincts and vote totals as the AP, which Politico takes its numbers from. It's also possible that the AP has messed up their numbers, which they have done before in Arkansas.
[ Parent ]
Another possibility
It could also be that they are reporting different precincts. Either one of them has misheard/mistyped numbers or they are reporting different precincts.
[ Parent ]
Halter is definitely doing better with election day returns
Halter was losing Craighead (Jonesboro) and Crittenden county (West Memphis) by 30-40 points in absentee ballots but is now behind by much less... this could end up being a real barn burner

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
similar story in Jefferson county (Pine Bluff)
Halter is also doing much better with election day returns in Jefferson county than he was with absentee ballots. I'm liking this turnaround.  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
[ Parent ]
Supposedly, Lincoln had a good early voting program....
...so, that would make sense...
[ Parent ]
Looking at it
 With counties that are starting to report election day results, Halter leads.  So it looks like Halter did better with election day voters. This reminds me of the Texas primary where the early votes put Obama ahead but Hillary eventually caught up and won.

Also, Calhoun County is all in and Halter won by 17. How much did he win by there three weeks ago?  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
17


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Lincoln aides, per CNN, saying she's performing "better than expected"


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Yeah...
it's early, but even though I predicted a double-digit Halter victory, I'm going to turn around and say Lincoln narrowly eeks it out.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That's how it looks to me too

[ Parent ]
Politico calls it for Greene


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Can someone from SC
please explain to me how this guy got over 5% over the vote, let alone a double-digit victory? please please please?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Remember, the state elected some pretty crazy people to the Senate
Strom Thurmond
John C. Calhoun
Heck, Jim Demint is no middle of the roader.
[ Parent ]
Ideology aside...
Those individuals all had slick media (for their respective eras) machines.  This guy has nothing.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Nobody's going to like this, but its just a theory
All the action was on the GOP side.  They have open registration down there.  All the whites voted in the GOP primary, or at least the vast majority probably did.  That leaves the African-Americans who are less likely to vote on the GOP primary.  African-Americans tend to campaign within their communities and have their own turnout efforts amongst their community groups.  If I had to bet, I'd say they knew who he was and they had sample ballots and handouts telling them to pick Greene.

It's just a theory/guess!!!!!!

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

[ Parent ]
DID Greene campaign?
I haven't heard anything about Greene doing any campaigning at all.
[ Parent ]
AP calling a runoff in SC-GOV
between Haley and Barrett.
Other AR counties fully in
Now (May 18)

Ouachita: 54-46 Lincoln (43-42 Halter)
Grant: 53-47 Halter (43-32 Halter)

Guys, not to be Tekzilla, but I think we need to emotionally prepare for a Lincoln victory. If this election doesn't show the importance of ground game in a low-turnout affair, nothing does.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

More
Nevada: 58-42 Halter (48-35 Halter)
Columbia: 58-42 Halter (51-34 Halter)

The model says it all, but Halter needs to get a really good swing out of the rest of Arkansas, because he's roughly holding steady in the southern part of the state.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Hmm
Interesting.  What are the conventional thoughts about why the voters of the other candidates are seemingly going to Lincoln by slightly higher than 50% margins?  

Its not hugely noticeable, and I remember the theory that Lincoln would do better with AA's from the toher candidates due to her past getting those votes and the Clinton help.  Does that hold true for these counties so far?

[ Parent ]
Makes sense
The Clinton machine is still alive and well apparently in Arkansas.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Well
my personal theory is not so much DC Morrison's voters going to Lincoln as it is lower turnout + good Lincoln ground game = Lincoln victory. Similarly, in GA-Sen 2008, I don't think Martin magically bled support to Chambliss, but Chambliss did a better job of turning out his voters, which is why he did so much better in the runoff.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Finding a silver lining in AR.
'Bout the only thing good from Blanche hanging on is to put some of that "anti-incumbent voters blah, blah, blah" media narrative to rest. That's about the only good thing I can see happening if Lincoln pulls it out.
Well, she'll only be a PITA...
...for a few more months after she gets crushed in November...
[ Parent ]
Haley's
4194 votes under 50%+1, with 143 precincts left, and AP's called it a runoff between her and Barrett.
Halter is actually losing Garland County slightly at the moment
Despite all the controversy, the result was quite close a few weeks ago though.
Halter is KILLING SW Arkansas
I'm starting to feel better about this. If we start to see some better results in Pulaski, I will rest easy.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
The problem is
his results in the south-central part of the state are little-changed from where they were last time. If this keeps up it will lead to a 52-48ish Lincoln victory.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
AR: Pulaski and Washington Counties
How will Halter fare in those counties?  
[ Parent ]
Really?
Now look at Eastern Arkansas where Blanche used to represent and is running margins in the high 50s and 60s. Look at the number of counties that have yet to report there.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Yeah...
If you look at the model, the areas that have come in are actually about 8 points more pro-Halter than the state as a whole. Without some big swings, Lincoln will come ahead to a 6-ish point victory.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I hope you were not referring to
Results like this:

61% Lincoln
39% Halter

5% in

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Where's the AP link for South Dakota?
Thanks.
try sdsos.gov
it worked for me.  right now, daugaard has it in the bag, and noem MAY win the nomination.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
NJ 6,7 and 12
4,438 for Spirrelle and 4,208 for Corsi in NJ 12 with all but 2 districts in for Monmouth and Mercer Counties but still over 200 remaining in Middlesex where one would have to believe Spirrelle would do well.

With virtually all of Monmouth County in Little still maintains around a 9% or 800 vote lead.

Repbulican Incumbent Leo Lance survives a bunch of tea-baggers in NJ 7 with around 55% of the vote so far.

The votes beginning to come in from Pulaski aren't good thus far

Good news!
Marion County in the north is now fully in.

Halter won 61-39 as compared to 51-38 on May 18.

Things look bad for him, but if he can keep getting swings like that, he's still in the game.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

A lot of mixed signals... but in the aggregate pointing to a Lincoln victory
While there is definitely not enough information to call it, the current returns seem to indicate a Lincoln victory is most likely. However, it's still definitely up in the air and worth watching  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
[ Parent ]
Halter's seeing a swing in the north.
Baxter, next to Marion, came in, 57-43 Halter instead of 47-44 before. North Arkansas might be the last, best hope of mankind.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Not to be premature
But NJ results look really, really good for Dems so far.  Dems winning confortably in contested races, tea party candidates beating establishment choices, Runyan unimpressive.

Reminds me of the PA primary a few weeks back, that night went very well for Dems IMHO.

NJ v. PA
Sure the PA results were really impressive for the Democrats.  Sestak could not even turn out more Democrats than Republicans in his home district.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
It
couldn't be because Republicans outnumber Democrats in that district could it? Too simplistic right.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Nor could...
Corbett in his, since he's technically in Allegheny COunty, right?

Gerlach in his, he turned out abotu 1,500 mroe than the Dems.

Tim Murphy, nope Dems got more in his district too.

Also, in 2006 the Sestak D had 35K vote in the Repub primary, 17K vote in teh Dem primary.  How did that work out for Sestak.

Also in 2006, in the 10th, Republicans had twice the votes as Dems, but pretty sure Carney

Again in 2006, in the 17th, Rupubs outvoted the Dems by 15K votes.  Tim Holden, Democrat still holds the seat.

Again in 2006, in the 18th, Dems outvoted Repubs in the primary by 20K votes.  Tim Murphy, Republican still survives.

In 2008, in the 6th, Dems outvoted Repubs by over 50K votes.  Gerlach, Repub, still holds the seat.

Again in 2008, in the 15th, Dems outvoted Repubs by 45K votes.  Charlie Dent, Repub, is still there though.

2008, again, the 17th district, Dems ootvote Repubs by 75K votes, Tim Murphy is still thewre as a Republican.

I enjoy your constant negativity on PA.  Please, please do an analysis on how turnout of the incumpent party vs challenger party in primaries portends to the general.  No more conjecture.

http://www.electionreturns.sta...

Because you've already stated that you feel all Republicans will hold and up to 4 Dem seast will flip based on this.  Its not born out by data and results.  Primary turnout by party does not determine GE results.  Not even a remote correlation.

[ Parent ]
Iowa
Branstad 57 , Vander Plaats 27

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
Someone help me out in understanding AR-Sen......
No, not tonight's results, but why should I care so much?

I've never seen so much liberal Democratic activist energy poured into deciding who gets to enjoy being strung up by John Boozman.

I understand Halter consistently polls slightly better than Lincoln, but both trail by pretty big margins.  And it's a conservative state in a good Republican year.

I enjoy the entertainment of the AR-Sen primary as much as anyone, but man, so many people care so deeply about this, and isn't it a bit misplaced?

My apologies to anyone here who actually lives in Arkansas or otherwise has a personal connection there, as you folks obviously should care about tonight.  Just as I care about seeing what I can do for Jeff Barnett in VA-10 even though Frank Wolf is perfectly safe.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

I like it when whoever I support wins
simple as that. Like sports. I'm not going to go into mourning if Lincoln wins, but if I lived in AR I'd pick Halter, so I'm cheering him on.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Operant Conditioning
Blanche Lincoln misbehaved during the run-up to healthcare reform.  The public option was a big deal from a policy standpoint, and Lincoln opposed it not for any articulated, sound policy reason, but because the left wanted it and that made it bad.  She is being punished now.  It's not about November here, and the unions have been pretty open about that.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
It's likely Boozman
Yes, what you said is mostly true, but I think the clear thought here is that everyone knows Blanche, few like her (not nearly enough)...and she's moved way too far to the right for the right to lose to Boozman.  Halter's a relative unknown, has room to grow, and doesn't have completely underwater favorables.  That MIGHT lead to a Halter squeaker...maybe...possibly...

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Tiger I agree with your every word and therefore have also rooted for Halter, BUT...
...what amazes me is that amount of emotional energy a lot of the left have poured into this primary.  It's the intensity that puzzles me.

And, frankly, to a substantial extent it bothers me, because the singling out of Lincoln for demonization shows a big lack of perspective.  Lincoln is from a most conservative state and the strongest anti-Obama state of any Democratic Senator up for reelection this year.

I suppose this is about making an example out of her for the sake of doing so, and winning in politics does, ultimately, require demonizing the opponent.  That's just a fact of political life, I accept that.

But if Halter wins tonight and goes on to lose by 20 to Boozman, I don't think the left benefits.  ConservaDems don't feel pressured to be more responsive to the left, instead they just feel more tightly squeezed with a narrower needle to thread to win.  The only way the left wins politically out of this is for Halter to win not only tonight but to pull off the massive upset and win in November.  If that happens, then the intense emotional energy will have been fully vindicated, and I'll be proven a fucking moron.  But it's hard to see a "Senator Halter" getting sworn in in January.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Hard to believe, yeah...
but not impossible like another term for Sen. Lincoln.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
It's Certainly Expectations Related
All the money that the unions put into this race, created a national spotlight. And I wouldn't discount the differences between Halter/Lincoln against Boozman. According to Nate, a Lincoln win would be unprecedented. If the year becomes more Democratic, Halter could win.
[ Parent ]
Lincoln general victory
She has Santorum style general numbers.  She is terminally in decline barring a massive scandal.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I think it's about the message
From the liberal activists who view themselves as the base, to the people we've elected. I would say the message is basically this: If you're elected as a Democrat, act/vote like a Democrat or we will primary the crap out of you.

Knocking off a particularly prickly incumbent Senator is the way that message is delivered. And the rest of the Dem caucus should consider themselves cc:ed on that.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
We need a new thread
IMO.
with links to ap nv thread please
and thank you

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
This looks real bad for Halter
With half of the precincts from Garland County in, he is TIED with Lincoln. Looks like the unions just wasted over 5 mil.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
I think the unions expected to lose last month.
This was about sending a message to Lincoln and other would-be Lincolns.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
The message didnt work
Vote your conscience.  She did, HCR is unpopular in her state.  You may not like her, but does anyone doubt she did her constituents will.

If the SEIU, dropping $5M in a cheap state, against a hopeless incumbent, couldn't get the desired result...what did they prove.

I can sepnd money and lose.

[ Parent ]
there were only TWO precincts in the run-off
there were fourty-two on primary day(i think voter suppression is a concern here)
[ Parent ]
Also
Can someone please explain the model?

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
am i the only one here having problems with
the politco site loading? is it running slow? or is it just me?
nope
it automatically updates itself

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
thanks

[ Parent ]
It's all going to come down to Pulaski.
Halter's pulling even in the rest of the state. But those 5% of votes now in from Pulaski, plus its vote in the primary, make the prospects a tad gloomy.
Unless something changes drastically
Pulaski is going to seal the deal for both Lincoln and Elliot.
[ Parent ]
It did change
Halter winning Pulaski by double digits.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
NJ Update
Teabaggers leads are shrinking, Little up 53-47 or about 650 votes with 64% of the vote in in NJ 6, but much of the vote is left in Middlesex county where Gooch is showing some early strength, should be very close.  Meanwhile in NJ 12 Spirrelle has pulled into the lead with 51.6% of the vote over teabagger Corsi with 70% of the vote in, looks like he'll pull it out there with the unenviable task of taking on the vastly popular Rush Holt.
Halter ahead by 2%
And it's all Little Rock

Who woulda guessed?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

AR, ME, NJ, SC & SD Results Thread | 157 comments

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