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NV-Sen, NV-Gov: Angle, Sandoval Poised For Primary Wins

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jun 07, 2010 at 2:46 AM EDT


Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (6/1-3, likely voters, 5/24-26 in parens):

Sharron Angle (R): 32 (29)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 24 (23)
Sue Lowden (R): 23 (30)
Other: 6 (7)
None: 2 (3)
Undecided: 13 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (42)
Sharron Angle (R): 44 (39)
Other: 3 (5)
None: 4 (4)
Undecided: 8 (10)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 (39)
Sue Lowden (R): 41 (42)
Other: 2 (3)
None: 6 (6)
Undecided: 9 (10)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (41)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 46 (42)
Other: 2 (4)
None: 3 (3)
Undecided: 10 (10)
(MoE: ±4%)

In case there was any doubt that Sharron Angle's surge in the GOP Senate primary in Nevada was complete, Mason-Dixon (for the LVRJ) weighs in with numbers very similar to Suffolk and R2K's results from late last week. Mason-Dixon's poll from the previous week had given a one-point lead to Sue Lowden, but she's losing ground as fast as Angle is gaining it. Lowden has also lost ground vis-a-vis Harry Reid, now losing to Reid, while Angle is now a few points ahead of Reid instead of trailing. I'm not sure whether to attribute this movement in the primary more to Angle finally being rescued from obscurity by attracting the attention of the Club for Growth and Tea Party Express, or Lowden's series of self-induced implosions; it's all a rich tapestry.

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (6/1-3, likely voters, 5/10-11 for primary trendlines, 4/5-7 for general trendlines):

Brian Sandoval (R): 47 (45)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 33 (27)
Mike Montandon (R): 6 (6)
Other: 1 (1)
None: 1 (NA)
Undecided: 12 (21)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rory Reid (D): 37 [35]
Brian Sandoval (R): 51 [50]
Other: 1 [NA]
None: 1 [NA]
Undecided: 10 [15]

Rory Reid (D): 44 [42]
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 38 [40]
Other: 2 [NA]
None: 5 [NA]
Undecided: 11 [18]
(MoE: ±4%)

Mason-Dixon has been a little inconsistent with when they poll what, so the trendlines for the primary don't match the general election trendlines. At any rate, there's not much change here, other than some last-minute progress for Jim Gibbons out of the "undecided" column that looks like too little, too late for the deeply unpopular governor. Brian Sandoval looks poised to win the GOP primary, which is bad news for Reid the Younger, who beats Gibbons almost as easily as he loses to Sandoval.

Crisitunity :: NV-Sen, NV-Gov: Angle, Sandoval Poised For Primary Wins
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Lowden in 3rd?!
damn, now that's a surprise. guess NV Republicans really don't like chickens.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Scientology will be the big winner
   The cult of $cientology has been looking for ages for a politician dumb enough to do their dirty work for them.  They have had a few nibbles now and then in the House but never in the senate.  This will all come a lot closer to happening tomorrow. Sharron Angle repeatedly carried water for their front group, Narconon, despite all the scandals that they had been involved in.  She did a lot of other work for them too, including taking John Travolta and others over to see Senator John Ensign about a drug law.  Scientology is against all types of drugs that psychiatrists prescribe, in fact they believe that all mental problems are caused, not cured, by psychiatrists.  Yep, their literature is filled with stories about how these evil doctors torture their patients for pure pleasure.  
  Few persons who have their eyes on high office would sully their hands with a group best known for their human rights abuses.  But after seeing how the chicken woman managed to throw herself from off of a cliff for no apparent reason except willful stupidity I guess nothing is too strange for Nevada.

Rollo "Rob" Weems

Angle will win...
...and once all the stuff comes out about her with Scientology and spas for inmates, she'll tank. Is there a strong Libetarian Party in Nevada? Because they could be more of a threat to Reid before it's all said and done.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

"Tank" seems a bit harsh
After all, she's not running against Chuck Schumer, she's running against a candidate whose ceiling is probably in the high-40s/low-50s (which, is enough in this race). I suspect the best and worst case scenarios for Reid against Angle are...

Best...

Dem - 37%
Independent - 33%
GOP - 30%

Reid - 95/48/7 = 53%
Angle - 2/45/90 = 43%
Others - 3/7/3 = 4%

Worst...

Dem - 34%
GOP - 33%
Independent - 33%

Reid - 87/5/40 = 44%
Angle - 8/93/55 = 52%
Others - 5/3/5 = 4%

And then what I'd consider the most likely scenario...

Dem - 35%
Independent - 33%
GOP - 32%

Reid - 93/44/7 = 50%
Angle - 5/49/90 = 47%
Others - 2/7/3 = 3%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
She is Bachmann for Senate
  She actually supports removing the USA from the United Nations.  This is a far-right candidate for a politically divided state.

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]

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