John McMillan will beat Dorman Grace

Who would vote for a dummy like that?  Seriously.  Is it even a question?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 18:15:03 PM UTC

Bentley,

I don't believe that R2K even polled Bentley in their matchups. Wonderful, if Bentley makes into the runoffs and then wins the primary I think he'll be an underdog to Ron Sparks.

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by: jwaalk @ Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 19:47:28 PM UTC

?!

A republican an underdog to a democrat in AL?  In this environment?!  That's a bit of an, how shall I say it, optimistic view of things.  

My opinion - it's going to be extremely hard, possibly impossible for Sparks (or for any D for that matter) to win AL-Gov in a year like this.  Alabama is the most solidly red state in the south from a PVI standpoint, and with Richard Shelby providing strong coattails at the top of the ticket, I can't see a democrat winning the governorship unless the republican really blunders badly.

Likely R at best.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 20:50:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You obviously haven't been looking at the polling

Sparks is within the MoE against Tim James and I'd figure he's a bit ahead of Bentley, who wasn't even polled in the R2K. Putting it at likely R is a bit ridiculous. Alabama tends to like moderate, center right pro-business governors, not far right nutcases. You seem to forget that in just 2002 Democrats came within a few thousand votes of holding the Governorship, and against a much stronger candidate than this Bentley fellow.

The national environment rarely travels down to gubernatorial races; 2002 was a weak year for Democrats in General yet they picked up several Governorships.

This year despite certain losses in Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Tennessee Democrats have great shots at Alabama, Georgia, Arizona, California, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, Florida and Hawaii and in South Carolina we need to wait and see if Andre Bauer of Nikki Haley prevails in the primary before we can say if Democrats have a great shot in that race.

Democrats will probably gain at least one Governorship by the end of the year, especially if unemployment drops down to just over 9% by the end of the year and the economy looks better heading into the long run. Particularly with the conservativism of Republicans, too far hard right, and the general cash advantages of Democrats.

In this environment? I don't see it as too spectacularly bad right now. The main thing is just erasing the enthusiasm gap.  

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by: jwaalk @ Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 21:23:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

was that the same R2K poll that had

Davis up by 8 over Sparks? If it is then I think we can safely through that poll out the window as it also had Bentley at 9 in the Republican primary. Seriously, that poll was worthless.  

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by: Jfindl1 @ Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 22:04:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I want to see more polling

before I toss that as an outlier. Most polls I've seen have had the general election match ups fairly close, with the exception of Bryne who would run away with this thing.  

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by: jwaalk @ Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 22:09:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The poll that shows it was an outlier

was the primary election. I repeat, it had Davis up by 8 points and Bentley receiving 9% of the vote in the Republican primary. Silver said that it the Dem primary poll had the 5th worst error of 4500 polls in his archive. Do to how well R2K did at predicting the primary, I don't see any reason to think the general election section of the poll is credible.  

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by: Jfindl1 @ Thu Jun 03, 2010 at 00:14:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You obviously haven't been looking at the polling

Sparks is within the MoE against Tim James and I'd figure he's a bit ahead of Bentley, who wasn't even polled in the R2K. Putting it at likely R is a bit ridiculous. Alabama tends to like moderate, center right pro-business governors, not far right nutcases. You seem to forget that in just 2002 Democrats came within a few thousand votes of holding the Governorship, and against a much stronger candidate than this Bentley fellow.

The national environment rarely travels down to gubernatorial races; 2002 was a weak year for Democrats in General yet they picked up several Governorships.

This year despite certain losses in Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Tennessee Democrats have great shots at Alabama, Georgia, Arizona, California, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, Florida and Hawaii and in South Carolina we need to wait and see if Andre Bauer of Nikki Haley prevails in the primary before we can say if Democrats have a great shot in that race.

Democrats will probably gain at least one Governorship by the end of the year, especially if unemployment drops down to just over 9% by the end of the year and the economy looks better heading into the long run. Particularly with the conservativism of Republicans, too far hard right, and the general cash advantages of Democrats.

In this environment? I don't see it as too spectacularly bad right now. The main thing is just erasing the enthusiasm gap.  

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by: jwaalk @ Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 21:23:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sparks has the potential to be an exceptionally good

candidate, who can buck the GOP tide this year.  I don't think Byrne is going to win the runoff, regardless of the opposition.

Against Bentley, you hope he makes a rookie mistake like Rand Paul.  Probably too much to ask, but that's the risk with an outsider like Bentley.  If Bentley runs a good campaign, he's governor.

Against James, Sparks' challenge will be winning over the level headed pro-business Republicans and independents.  If he can do that, he can beat James.  James' nutty father lost by 17% in 1998.

If Byrne somehow wins the primary, Sparks is probably going to lose.  In a less GOP year, Sparks might have been able to sell his populist message to populist Repubs and independents, but not this year.

   

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by: NewMex9999 @ Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 22:39:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]