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AR-Sen: Halter Leads Lincoln, Boozman Leads Both

by: James L.

Thu May 27, 2010 at 3:19 PM EDT


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/24-26, likely voters, 5/10-12 in parens for general election match-ups):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44
Bill Halter (D): 47
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±5%)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38 (40)
John Boozman (R): 58 (54)
Undecided: 4 (6)

Bill Halter (D): 42 (41)
John Boozman (R): 53 (50)
Undecided: 5 (9)
(MoE: ±4%)

Bill, finish her! This is the third consecutive poll from Research 2000 showing Lincoln fading in a head-to-head against Boozman, and her net general election favorability has dropped to a negative 21 points -- while Halter is still in the black by 10. While the runoff should still be an incredible dogfight, especially since Lincoln has the Big Dog, Bill Clinton, in her corner, I'm liking Halter's odds. And that means we may have a fighting chance of at least making a race of this state in November.

We should note, though, that R2K previously looked at the runoff question in a methodologically unsound snap poll for Democracy For America. That poll has Halter up by 48-46.
James L. :: AR-Sen: Halter Leads Lincoln, Boozman Leads Both
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AR-Sen: Halter Leads Lincoln, Boozman Leads Both | 26 comments
I suspect that at the end of this
We either end up with a 60-40 Boozman win or 55-45 Boozman win. Though I'll take my chances with the guy who has the shortest route to 50 percent +1.
I can't picture either Dem even coming close
I do think Halter would help with Dem turn-out, however.

Dem - 35%
GOP - 33%
Indie - 32%

Boozman - 17/93/65 = 58%
Halter - 83/7/35 = 42%

GOP - 35%
Indie - 33%
Dem - 32%

Boozman - 95/68/20 = 61%
Lincoln - 5/32/80 = 39%

With Billy Boy, I actually expect Lincoln to narrowly win the primary, probably 'round 51-49.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

You are really way too pessimistic
Your guesses are closer to Rasmussen's polling, and you don't seem to realize what a lame duck campaigner Boozman is. He comes from a powerful political family; he doesn't excite people, and he cannot speak well publicly. He coasted through the primary on name recognition and establishment support alone, and right now he's simply benefiting from the fact that Lincoln and Halter are too busy tearing each other up. This race will really depend on how well the state party can mend fences and come back together in a united front against Boozman, which I think it can and will.

In any case I think your partisan numbers are WAY off. Besides race and a huge PUMA effect, Arkansas has a lot of normally Democratic leaning voters, and Democrats are over 50% of registered voters. That estimates put forth far too many GOPers.

This race will tighten once its Halter's energetic populism versus Boozman's bland, establishment conservatism. (This guy will not be exciting many teabagger/anti-washington Republicans to come to the polls).

[ Parent ]
I'll hope you're right!
This poll here shows pretty much exactly what I expected.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Right now, this seems like wishful thinking
Boozeman won the Republican primary in a convincing fashion. I've heard the arguement Boozman doesn't excite people, but I don't know if that makes much a difference this year. I don't know how you argue the fact that Arkansas is a state that gave Obama 39 percent of the vote, a Senator is basically a federal official, Boozeman is no novice, and Halter will be perceived as the the candidate of labor, not a popular place to be in Arkansas.

But look - I never expected Halter to beat Lincoln, so you should ignore me.  

[ Parent ]
he won it with 53%
of the vote against a large group of divided, unfunded, and unorganized teabaggers who had less than 25% the name rec as him and no establishment backing. How the hell is that winning in impressive fashion?

Like I said, a huge Puma affect, added to the fact Obama never bothered to campaign or run adds in Arkansas. He let misconceptions and rumors take hold of conservative Democrats there by not campaigning against them. Arkansas is still the most favorable of southern states to Democrats.

I'm from Arkansas; the only areas that are anti labor are wal-mart territory in AR-03 and they don't vote Democratic anyway.

And frankly, Boozman is kind of a novice. His only public experience before getting set up as the replacement to Hutchinson in a 2001 special election was running the State Fair once. A young Democratic Rep. Mike Hathorn held him to a surprisingly weak margin of victory in AR-03, and that was the last time he had a really tough race, against a competent Democrat.

I could go on but I think I've made the point clear enough.

[ Parent ]
Wasn't Gil Baker a pretty prominent State Senator?
I never got the feeling he was a random teabagger.

Look, I'd argue with you, but since I'm rooting for Halter to win, it's probably in my best interest to hope you know what you're talking about. I'm still pessimistic, but less so after reading your post.  

[ Parent ]
Well technically
he's a gadfly. He ran the state Republican party into the ground as its chairman a few years ago, he's tied to scandals at Arkansas State in Conway, and a thing about serving as a character witness for a Campaign worker who raped a woman quite violently. On top of that he was responsible for a stabbing Benton Senator Dave Bisbee a few years back when he was running to get the position of State Senate President back by a number of Republicans and moderate Democrats, (Bisbee was a very moderate Republican, about in the center of the State Senate, and probably to the left of some Dems like Woolridge), and he cost him the position by voting for the Democrat with a few other Republicans. And it really left a bad taste in a lot of northwestern Republicans mouths, especially in Benton county, which lost out on getting a lot of power.

He had no money too, that's part of it, and he got pretty desperate and basically spent the last few weeks making radical, almost unhinged assertions with and the media started ignoring him. Holt was a far bigger challenger, but again his late entry and complete lack of money, and the fact he was a two time loser who last ran for office four years ago left him as a poor candidate to take up the teaparty banner as well.  

[ Parent ]
I just want Halter to win
as a "horsehead in the bed" for other would-be Blanche Lincolns to think about.  I understand voting your jurisdiction to an extent, but Blanche Lincoln took it too far on HCR, torpedoing the public option not for sound policy reasons but because it was a political football with which she could burnish her credentials as a triangulator.  The Democratic party needs to engage in more operant conditioning of its members.  

I don't think we're going to win, but I do think Halter has slightly more upside and is better positioned to take the ball and run if Boozman makes a major mistake.  Win-win for me, even though we almost certainly lose the big one in the end.  That seems to be the way the unions see it too.  I don't think they're forseeing a Halter win in the GE, but it's good for them anyway.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
The public option was popular in Arkansas
according to poll results I remember reading

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I disagree
I can't see a path to victory for Halter or Lincoln.  Which to me makes the SEIU spending mega-bucks all the more perplexing, since Lincoln is not going to win in the general anyways.  

[ Parent ]
See the last paragraph in my comment above.
The union leaders have already explained that this is just a huge shot across the bow to other would-be Blanche Lincoln's.  It's not about the GE.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Its still kinda dumb
Waste money on a sure loser to prove your muscle.  Should people really fear the SEIU causing their loss if the main race the intervene in is for a sure loser.

Honestly, with all the problems in the world, what a waste of money.  I'm sure there's members of their union who could spend the money a lot better....

[ Parent ]
What waste of money?
The race is winnable.  The better Halter does, the better the Dem House candidates do... whcih can mean generational representation

Getting rid of Lincoln is pretty clear one of the best uses of campaign funds that can used at this stage.

[ Parent ]
Why do you think the teabaggers do it?
It works.  Republicans are afraid to vote for any big deal bill.  Obama agrees with a bipartisan idea, Republican senators vote against an idea they cosponsored.  (Also they have a lot of unelectable GE candidates.  I think we lucked out with the fights we picked and got lesser known candidates in a politician-toxic environment)
[ Parent ]
I agree
This is a very good investment by the unions, for at least two reasons:

(1) Halter has a chance, albeit not a likelihood, of actually winning the election; Lincoln is toast.
(2) Making an example of Lincoln, while unlikely to cost a seat the Democrats will probably lose, anyway, is a great way for unions to flex their muscles.

The point made above about helping bring out Democratic voters who could make a difference in races for lower offices is also well taken.

Excellent, smart investment by the unions.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Also means fewer ticket splitters
Needed for the two competitive House races.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
House is one of the lower offices than Senate that I was referring to above.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I guess Beebe may help there too

[ Parent ]
Agreed n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Our best polling outfit has opp. over 50, double digit lead, and trendlines in wrong direction
Yeah, Halter is in better shape than Lincoln, who is just plain dead in the water, and scarcely worth supporting anyway. But that's like saying Jerrold Nadler is in better shape than Louie Anderson. Or maybe than saying he's in better shape than Dom Delouise...
The real campaign hasn't even started yet.
The Republicans start from a position of strength here, nobody denies that.  It'll be a tough row to hoe, but it's not impossible; worse polling has been overcome in the time allowed.
[ Parent ]
It is always weird to see people making sweeping statements at this stage
Anyone within 15 points in any state could win if their opponent Macaca or affairs their way into infamy.

And anyone within ten points in any state now can easily win via better commercials and poor campaigning by their opponent.

This race is uphill, but the idea that Boozman is the second coming of George Washington is a wee bit over the top, especially since we don't even have our nominee yet... and if it is Halter, the mess in DC is not his fault, in fact it is more Boozman's fault than his, so his ability to campaign in line with the mood of the country and Arkansas is there.  On the other hand, Lincoln can only win if Boozman self-destructs.

[ Parent ]
Wow, Lincoln is toast
I was thinking she might pick up some of the Morrison voters, but her numbers haven't moved from her result in the first round.
Fact check article on Lincoln
details false claims by unions.

http://www.factcheck.org/2010/...

Joe Cooper

That MoE is fairly big
I think Halter has gained more support than Lincoln since the primary, but technically this poll could possibly mean that they're exactly where they were on May 18.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
AR-Sen: Halter Leads Lincoln, Boozman Leads Both | 26 comments

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