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CT-Sen: Blumenthal Still Up Big

by: James L.

Thu May 27, 2010 at 12:12 PM EDT


Quinnipiac (5/24-25, registered voters, 3/9-15 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 56 (61)
Linda McMahon (R): 31 (28)
Undecided: 10 (10)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (62)
Rob Simmons (R): 28 (26)
Undecided: 13 (10)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 59 (64)
Peter Schiff (R): 25 (21)
Undecided: 13 (13)
(MoE: ±2.9%)

If Quinnipiac is to believed, it looks like Richard Blumenthal has weathered the storm of his Vietnam flap with remarkable ease, only losing a handful of points off of his ample margins from March. Indeed, Quinnipiac asked a number of specific questions on the issue, finding that, by a margin of 53-35, voters were satisfied with Blumenthal's explanation of the matter, and that, by a 54-38 margin, voters believe he misspoke rather than lied. A full 61% say that the issue isn't impacting their preferences in the race one way or the other, while 33% say that it's made them less likely to vote for Blumenthal. While this flare-up has not been pleasant at all, it certainly starting to look like the weight of the issue has been overstated.

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac also polled the GOP primary. Keep in mind that half of this sample was polled before Simmons pulled the plug on his own campaign:

Rob Simmons (R): 23 (34)
Linda McMahon (R): 49 (44)
Peter Schiff (R): 11 (9)
Undecided: 15 (12)
(MoE: ±6.5%)

And we also have some gubernatorial primaries:

Ned Lamont (D): 41 (28)
Dan Malloy (D): 24 (18)
Undecided: 30 (44)
(MoE: ±5%)

Tom Foley (R): 37 (37)
Mike Fedele (R): 11 (13)
Oz Griebel (R): 5 (7)
(MoE: ±6.5%)
James L. :: CT-Sen: Blumenthal Still Up Big
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CT-Sen: Blumenthal Still Up Big | 26 comments
Hmm...
Let's see... Quinnipiac has Blumenthal up by 25 points over McMahon, Rasmussen has him up by only 3 points.

Gee, I wonder who's full of shit here.

Blumenthal's internal poll showed him up 15%
http://www.nhregister.com/arti...

Nevertheless, Quinnipiac is one of the most accurate polls in the NYC area (NY, CT, NJ)

Polling dates
are earlier than the Q poll.
[ Parent ]
Also LV
Q is RV. I think the internal is probably closer to the truth.
[ Parent ]
I wouldnt rest easy about Blumenthal
I used to think the popular Blumenthal was untouchable. A Elliot Spitzer type AG without the hookers.

But the whole lying about his military service thing has really changed my opinion on this race.

To me it shows that Blumenthal isnt a very good politician or candidate and that he has the potential of being a Martha Coakley type gaffe prone machine.

Now add in the $50 million McMahon will throw in to point out all of Blumenthal's flaws and to try and force him to make more mistakes and this election could get ugly.

At the very least McMahon's money and Blumenthal becoming the butt of even Joe Biden's joke will force Blumenthal to have to raise a lot more money for this race than anyone would have thought he needed before the NY Times theft of valor story.

I dont put too much stock in this poll and I think as time goes by you will she Blumenthal's numbers start to go down.

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Really Really time to give it a rest
The times tried to paint it as a lie and I see you are still repeating that assertion but it just does not hold up. Watch the whole video - he tells the same crowd on the same day that he did not serve in Vietnam.  The NYT leaving that part out was very bad journalism; your determination to avoid acknowledging it is wilful blindness.

Yes he misspoke.  Yes it is dumb and a bad gaffe for a lawyer to make who should know the importance of precision in language but a lie it is not.

I mean give me a break, do you really think he told the crowd he did not serve in theatre and then actually lied about it later in the same speech?  Was he hoping they'd all forget the clear and to the point statement that he was not in Vietnam and focus in his use of the preposition "in".  Come on, this is not a lie it is a verbal gaffe and your continued assertions that it is a lie are starting to look like they are made in bad faith.

[ Parent ]
Sorry you are wrong Johnny C
I dont want to re-hash the whole arguement here but I did watch the whole video and in my opinion it makes the whole thing worst for Blumenthal. You can forgive a simple gaffe of leaving out the word "in" but if you watch the whole video you will see it was a deliberate attempt to mislead.

Contrary to what you claim in your post Blumenthal did not say in any part of the speech that he did not serve in theatre. In fact in the begining he implies he served in the Marines when in fact he was only in the RESERVES. He was purposly trying to mislead the audience about his military record.

Here is the full video you can watch it again if you like:

I am sorry if I am harping on this. But this but Vietnam has always been a sore topic in my family and will admit that I was extremely let down when I found out that Dick Blumenthal wasnt the kind of man I thought he was.

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[ Parent ]
Here's my problem with your harping:
You have every right to feel the way you do.  That's your opinion.

But what I don't like is your refusal to acknowledge, even in a thread about polling of the CT Senate race, that just maybe, CT voters don't feel the same way you do.  Because apparently over half of them don't.  And that's the point.  I would bet that the  vast majority of the 30 odd percent who say he lied or aren't satisfied with his response are Republicans who wouldn't have voted for him in the end anyway.

You say:

I dont put too much stock in this poll and I think as time goes by you will she Blumenthal's numbers start to go down.

I would bet on his numbers going down some.  It's the nature of a campaign.  I would also bet that if and when his numbers sink further it won't be related to the NY Times story and the stuff mentioned within.  The voters have decided and moved on.  (It reminds me of VA governor's race, where Deeds was harping on the paper McConnell wrote.  It's good for a splashy impact, but it's easy for voters to hear about, process, and decide how it impacts them - and most of the time it doesn't.)

[ Parent ]
The only one who is wrong is you
And the polling confirms it.
[ Parent ]
I conurs with the others
You come into every post about Blumenthal and post the same thing.  

We get it Blumenthal let you down.  Eventually you either move on to other topics on this blog or volunteer for Linda McMahon's campaign.  Pick one to help you deal with the letdown.  

Your posts have not been substantively different, its the same information each time.  Even some of the worst posters on here, even banned ones, change it up from time to time.  Trying to convince everyone to see Blumenthal the way you just can't be that cathartic when its not working.

[ Parent ]
Oh and I'd be careful...
of your "he was only in the RESERVES" remark.  

I know a few reservist in NJ/PA who've served multiple tours in the Iraq war who probably wouldn't think much of this.

[ Parent ]
I'm done talking about this
No more negative from me on Blumenthal. Just think Dems would have been better off getting anyone else after this story broke.

As for Reserves dont take it the wrong way. Was never trying to put down the reserves or anyone who served in it.

Any one who served in the military in any capacity deserves our respect and thanks. Was just pointing out that Blumenthal was trying to imply that he served in a way that he did not. That said I will try not to mention it again here.

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[ Parent ]
Well, if and when they do start going down we'll start looking at the race differently.
I think you've beaten your point--that Blumenthal sucks as a candidate and is going to lose--into discussions about him and this race quite enough by now.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Yup
Also conveniently ignored again is the fact her favorability is under water. Even if Blumenthal ain't all that McMahon is even worse.
[ Parent ]
Unless there is additional evidence
the worst is over for Blumenthal -- aka -- his poll numbers have hit bottom from this issue.

The thing that sinks most politicians in any sort of scandal is the drip drip drip of additional news hammering on that person's popularity.

Unless there is additional revelations (and I don't discount the possibility), any sort of McMahon ad on the topic will be dismissed as old news.

No question this has hurt Blumenthal. I suspect that previous fibs from other politicians w/r/t military service have helped limit the damage, however.

As suggested by the diary

Quinnipiac asked a number of specific questions on the issue, finding that, by a margin of 53-35, voters were satisfied with Blumenthal's explanation of the matter, and that, by a 54-38 margin, voters believe he misspoke rather than lied. A full 61% say that the issue isn't impacting their preferences in the race one way or the other, while 33% say that it's made them less likely to vote for Blumenthal

izengabe, I appreciate that this issue is personally important to you. However, from a cold rational point of view, at least 3 out of every 5 CT voters say it doesn't matter to them.

[ Parent ]
And I am proudly
one of those Connecticut voters who currently backs Blumenthal.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Governor Lamont
I bet Lieberman is steaming at the idea.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
At least he doesn't have to worry about a rematch
with Lamont in 2012; I'd say he'd view it as a win.

Though there's still plenty of other people to take a shot at him.

[ Parent ]
Chris Murphy
Would be the perfect candidate.  
[ Parent ]
I guess Lieberman is in the 10% Undecided column
Lieberman says he is undecided and open to supporting McMahon:
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

I doubt he will back her. This is probably more of him wanting to cause trouble and be at the center of things.

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He could
I can't see him backing Blumenthal, who was going to challenge him in 2012 and supported Lamont in 2006. McMahon supported Lieberman in 2006.  
[ Parent ]
Frankly
It is irrelavant whatever he does.
[ Parent ]
I doubt it
If Blumenthal loses he turns right around and challenges Lieberman.  
[ Parent ]
There's little doubt in my mind he backs McMahon
Ever since '06, Lieberman's had a vendetta against Blumenthal.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Lol, it's Lieberman being an attention whore again.
He's kinda been that way since his mindset changed in 2006, from team playing to trying to display an air of independence to satisfy his ego.

Yeah, since he's no longer a Democrat, a (real) Democrat will run against him in 2012.  He's in a pretty precarious position.

Hey Republicans, try to do better than Alan Schlesinger this time, 'kay?  Or at least make him do better.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
CT-Sen: Likely Dem
Move along kids, nothing to see here...
CT-Sen: Blumenthal Still Up Big | 26 comments

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