| Well, for the most part, that is.
Public Policy Polling (5/22-23, South Carolina voters):
Jim Rex (D): 36
Gresham Barrett (R): 38
Undecided: 25
Vincent Sheheen (D): 33
Gresham Barrett (R): 43
Undecided: 25
Jim Rex (D): 40
Andre Bauer (R): 38
Undecided: 22
Vincent Sheheen (D): 38
Andre Bauer (R): 38
Undecided: 23
Jim Rex (D): 36
Nikki Haley (R): 45
Undecided: 19
Vincent Sheheen (D): 34
Nikki Haley (R): 44
Undecided: 22
Jim Rex (D): 36
Henry McMaster (R): 42
Undecided: 22
Vincent Sheheen (D): 36
Henry McMaster (R): 43
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±2.8%)
Of course, the Fort McHenry-sized red flag here is that this poll was taken before the maybe-dubious revelations that state Rep. Nikki Haley, the Republican front-runner, was involved in an "inappropriate physical relationship" with an ex-Sanford aide. Who knows what kind of havoc that's wreaking on this race, but hopefully we'll see some kind of follow up in advance of the state's June 8th primary. (Though keep in mind that South Carolina is a runoff state.)
More, from Jensen:
The Democratic candidates may have some room to grow. Right now neither of them is as well known as any of the Republican contenders. 67% of voters don't know enough about Sheheen to have formed an opinion and despite a term in statewide office 62% are ambivalent toward Rex as well. The eventual nominee's name recognition will obviously pick up by the fall and that could provide an opportunity to pick up more support.
Still, Barrett and McMaster aren't that all well-known, either. Other than Haley, the best bet for Dems has got to be frat boy Lt. Governor Andre Bauer, whose reputation is notoriously bad in insider circles, and who nearly lost his race in 2006.
Meanwhile, here's what the primaries looked like over the weekend:
Vincent Sheheen (D): 36
Jim Rex (D): 30
Robert Ford (D): 11
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±4.8%)
Nikki Haley (R): 39
Henry McMaster (R): 18
Gresham Barrett (R): 16
Andre Bauer (R): 13
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±3.9%)
It's interesting to see Sheeheen, a state senator, perform so well against the only statewide elected Democrat in the race, state School Superintendent Jim Rex. As for the Republican primary... well, who knows. |
