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WA-Sen: Rossi Makes It Official, SSP Moves To Lean Dem

by: Crisitunity

Wed May 26, 2010 at 12:32 PM EDT


It's been clear for a few days now that Dino Rossi was ready to run for Senate, and, as expected, today was the official launch day:

In a five-minute video posted to his web site, www.dinorossi.com, Rossi reaches out to voters upset with the direction the country is headed, citing rising unemployment, plummeting housing values, "wasteful" stimulus plans and "massive new debt as far as the eye can see."

In language straight out of Ronald Reagan's playbook, Rossi says "America's best days" lie ahead if we "unleash the power of the people" and restore government to its "proper, more limited role...."

Rossi says he'd start by "replacing the Pelosi-Reid health care bill with something that will actually reduce costs and increase access," though he gave no specifics.

Before facing off against Patty Murray, though, Rossi needs to survive the state's top-two primary. State Sen. Don Benton was considered the more-or-less establishment frontrunner before Rossi's entry; he's a friend of Rossi and is likely to share the same pool of votes and donors, so he may be ready to bail out. Rossi's bigger problem is likelier to be Clint Didier, who has been explicitly courting the Tea Party vote (which doesn't have much goodwill left for Rossi... and whom Rossi doesn't seem too interested in, as he spent last Friday hinting about his plans not with them but rather in front of the Mainstream Republicans of Washington) and who has a freshly-minted Sarah Palin endorsement.

With many polls giving Murray a lead in the single digits over Rossi, Swing State Project is moving this race to "Lean Democratic" from our list of Races to Watch.  

Crisitunity :: WA-Sen: Rossi Makes It Official, SSP Moves To Lean Dem
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His website
Is anyone else still getting the old thank-you/business promotion letter when you open his website?  

What's his stats?
Approve/disapprove?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

That's annoying
But still, Rossi is a two-time loser and Patti Murray is a more popular and stronger politician than Gregoire, so I'm not worried about Murray losing.

Having said that, the Leans ranking is a good call.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


Mom in tennis shoes
At least in terms of public profile, Mom in tennis shoes beats property developer/businessman who buys foreclosed homes ...

And Ms. Patty is no pushover who coasts to re-election: her 2004 opponent was a pretty popular 5-term Congressman, George Nethercutt, instead of a former state senator who twice lost races for governor like Rossi. In fact, Rossi will be the first non-Congressperson Murray has faced: two-term Linda Smith in 1998 and five-term Rod Chandler in 1992.

It won't be a cakewalk, but I'm confident Murray can pull it off. In fact, if she can't, Democrats are probably seriously, seriously effed.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Mom in tennis shoes?
Yeah, cause nothing says "just another mom in tennis shoes" like being the number 4 Democrat in party leadership...

[ Parent ]
Hey, I put Pat Leahy under "Comic Book Geek"
Appeared in two Batman movies and wrote the Forward to a collected book of Green Arrow stories.

He's Judiciary Chairman, but I see Comic Geek.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Yeah, tennis shoes
A mom in tennis shoes who just happens to be the most powerful woman in the Senate.  If you think that's some sort of contradiction...well, then you are a horrible misogynistic sexist person who hates America and women and hockey moms and apple pie. [wink]

But seriously, if then-Gov. Sarah Palin can be a plain ole hockey mom, then the far less transparently liar-y Patty Murray can be a plain ole mom in tennis shoes.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Being a powerful member of the senate
Just doesn't scream regular mom.  

[ Parent ]
Neither does Governor of Alaska
It's all about image.

Besides, mothers can do anything.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Once people have that in their mind
It is hard to shake.

[ Parent ]
You're absolutely right
Silly me. Regular moms shoot wolves from helicopters ...  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Wasnt that
mooses?

33, living in Germany  

[ Parent ]
Exactly.
This guy has been rejected by Washingtonians twice against a far weaker Democrat for a state office (re: national issues are less prevalent).  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Interestingly
round 1 should be something like a poll with a massive sample--assuming the other strong Republicans drop out.  

But Murray can't afford a mistake
She doesn't have Blumenthal's lead, and her opponent is of a higher caliber.

She still should win, if she doesn't make more mistakes than Dino. But Dino (at present) has a relatively moderate image, (and if he raises the money) I can see him running somewhat ahead of McCain's '08 total -- I could see a 51-46 result.


i think he loses
to didier and does not make the final ballot

[ Parent ]
Murray isn't a weak politician
In fact, while Rossi was a good get for the Republicans (I really have to give Cornyn credit, he's been a monster recruiter this time), Murray is not a fool when it comes to elections (she's dispatched top-tier challengers in the past, and she'll do it again).

I actually see Murray winning by low double digits (55-43).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Has to add up to 100 -- Top Two Primary
Because of the stupid top two primary, there will be only two people on the November ballot. There will only be one Democrat and one Republican and no third party candidates.

The initiative that created this stupidity was pushed on us by Republican SOS Sam Reed and was billed as going to weaken the two main parties. It has done the opposite. For most legislative seats, third parties don't even run candidates, since there is almost no way that they will get out of the August primary to be on November's ballot. And in some Seattle districts, two Democrats win whereas in some Eastern WA districts, two Republicans win.

All it does is limit choices in November.

If the top two primary idea is proposed in your state, I highly recommend that you oppose it.

It short, it sucks.


[ Parent ]
NO on Prop 14
  That is the CA version of the top two primary that will be on the Golden State's ballot in two weeks (6/8). It is a bad deal...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
Oh god!
As someone who grew up in CA I hope you defeat it. It is horrible for our democracy and limits choices. It IS NOT reform, by any means.

[ Parent ]
He already outperformed McCain
In 2008, he lost 53-47, McCain lost 57-40.  

[ Parent ]
To be fair
Its more the case that Gregoire underperformed Obama.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Murray hasn't made any serious mistakes before
Has she? Seems to me, she's a good, seasoned campaigner. Could she lose? Hard to imagine. Washington, going for Health Care Repeal? I seriously doubt it. If Murray loses, the Democrats will have lost at least 8 seats, net.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
not too worried
I think Murray is a shrewd campaigner with a huge war chest and the support of Democrats, unions, and Boeing (the latter being a huge player in Washington state.) The tea party will not be enthusiastic about Rossi if he is the R nominee, making any chance he has at taking this seat very small.

i would be shocked if murray doesn't keep her seat come fall.

also, who else expects Ras to come out with a poll on Washington Senate later today/tomorrow? I'm sure the numbers will be something like Rossi 44 Murray 40


they already have
a few days ago(they had murray UP a few but under 50%); ras is the 'faux news' of polling

[ Parent ]
will he list his party as GOP this time?
wasn't he the guy who refused to be listed as 'republican' on the ballot last time?

I think he should make up some fictitious party this time
Or perhaps dredge out one of the third parties of yore:

Dino Rossi - Prefers Bull Moose Party
- or -
Dino Rossi - Prefers Anti-Masonic Party

That should win over some undecided swing voters.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08


[ Parent ]
Prefers Know-Nothing Party
Fits in with conservative anti-intellectualism.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
So when can we expect the Ras poll
Showing him up 51-32?

That is a bit optimistic of you
I was thinking at least 57-30. I mean if a politician with a 75% approval rating like Mike Beebe can only manage a 15 point lead on a nobody what can ordinary Democrats do against legitimate Republicans?


[ Parent ]
I LOL'd
at the "citing...plummeting housing values" thing. This guy is like Dan Coats, looks good in early polling but has weaknesses out the wazoo.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


I'm not too worried about this one
Rossi is a credible candidate, no doubt, and if this really is a very Republican year, it could be close.  But he's a two-time loser running in a federal election in a Democratic state.  Voters are much more likely to cross parties in a governor's race than a senate race.  Further, Patty Murray is a better politician than Chris Gregoire.

I don't think Rossi will win
But having yet another race to be on the defense on is never a good thing for Democrats.

[ Parent ]
The Worst Thing About This
is that Senator Murray will have to use all of her campaign $ (now at $6 million +) and won't be able to send some to the DSCC.

It is very doubtful that Rossi can win.

He has angered many Republican activists by waiting too long, he has no money, he will not be able to ever fundraise enough to outspend Senator Murray. He also will now have to answer questions about torturing prisoners and abortion rights, issues that he has largely dodged in the past by saying that they were federal, and not state, issues.

Plus, he has been making his money as of late buying up cheap property that has been foreclosed on. Being a rich realtor is probably not the best occupation to have when running for public office right now.


I admit to being somewhat surprised.
Cornyn really is good at arm-twisting. Too bad for him he had to be NRSC chair during the Year of the Teabagger.

Here's one former resident of WA who thinks that Rossi is pretty much DOA. He's been damaged goods since his second run for governor, and just can't stop shooting himself in the foot - his waiting almost a year before declaring, and declaring a week after giving a speech to his realtor buddies about how to profit off of poor people's misfortune being perfect examples.

Ultimately, this is going to be another race like Cantwell-McGaverick (2006) - sleazy Republican business leader vs. fairly popular (and accomplished) Democratic incumbent. The difference is that Rossi pretty much oozes sleaze, while McGaverick's was a lot more subtle. And, as others have noted, lots of people have made up their mind (for whatever reason) that they hate Gregoire. That doesn't mean they like Rossi, or that Rossi has a chance in hell of upsetting the state's most powerful incumbent absent a 1980-style Republican blowout.  


Cornyn
is the Chuck Schumer of the NRSC. And Bob Mendendez is what...the John Ensign/Liddy Dole of the DSCC.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
What a horrible start to his campaign!
Starting one's campaign by hosting a video on a website is never a good start (Plus it started 25 minutes late).

He did not hold a press conference, there was no rally of hundreds or even dozens of enthusiastic supporters. I doubt that there is very little enthusiasm for him running.

It would appear that he will attempt to skate thru the primary by answering as few questions as possible. Since he is the most well known of the GOP candidates, it will probably work.

If I were Senator Murray, I would immediately "welcome" Rossi by challenging him to several debates pre primary with several of the other GOP contenders. And I would have the debates, not in Seattle, but in Spokane, Vancouver and somewhere north of Seattle.



Doesn't exactly come across
As fired up and ready to go a la Scott Brown does he? Lazy.

[ Parent ]
Not only did Rossi's video start late, few are bothering to watch it.
If Republicans were so eager for him to get in, wouldn't you think they would have made an event out of his announcement?

Of those commenting on the PI, Times and Tribune articles about his announcement, few are cheering. The Republican PC in precinct is less than thrilled with the prospect that Rossi could win the primary. She is a Benton supporter and calls Rossi the Harold Stassen of Washington.


[ Parent ]
I wonder
If this will have an impact on the WA-3 race. Rossi is very popular in southwest Washington.  

Turnout
It could increase turnout on the Republican side if there appears to be an actual competition between him and his GOP opponents. On the flipside, it could decrease turnout on the Republican side if it is seen as a done deal or if most of his opponents drop out.

One of Rossi's main opponents is a State Senator from the 3rd, Don Benton.

He has a lot of the Republican establishment's endorsements already, so it will be interesting to see if he drops out or if he pushes forward.


[ Parent ]
Is he running for office or applying for a job?
He bascially just took his resume and put it on a web site.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
Well, both, to be honest
since it's technically the people who are considering whether to hire him.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
He waited way too long to enter the race.
I know he probably has some campaign infrastructure left from his failed 04/08 runs for governor, but Patty Murray is a proven fundraiser and campaigner. She's not going to be a pushover by any means. Also, I don't see John Cornyn throwing large sums of money at this race if Rossi can't raise enough money. Still, he's a much more credible candidate than Clint Didier or Don Benton, so rat's off to you, John Cornyn.

The biggest story here
Is that this spreads the DSCC even thinner. Rossi's a pretty known commodity to Washington voters and is probably locked in at 47-48% of the vote unless the climate become significantly worse for Murray by election day. But this is one more headache for Bob Menendez to deal with, and makes it harder for the DSCC to play offense in MO, OH, or NC.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Depends
She has plenty money already and he has to catch up. I don't see them having to put up too much here.

[ Parent ]
Actually...
If the GOP wants to be competitive here, it will also spread the NRSC thinner. Right now Rossi has $0; Senator Murray has more than $6 million. For Rossi to compete, he will need $ from the NRSC.

Both the DSCC and NRSC currently have the same amounts, so this is not a net loss for the DSCC.


[ Parent ]
Probably a net wash moneywise
Yes, the NRSC will probably have to provide some seed money, but Rossi can raise money too.

In addition, without Rossi, I would have expected Murray to give some of her campaign monies to the DSCC.  


[ Parent ]
Doesn't Rossi have a primary to contend with?
Let's deal with him after they decide not to call him "Rino" as well.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I imagine Benton will quit
And Rossi will take it with an underwhelming margin.

[ Parent ]
Top Two Primary
Unfortunately we have the stupid top two primary, which means that everybody just votes on one ballot and the two candidates who have the most votes go on to the general election. There is no "Democratic" ballot and no "Republican" ballot.

And since Rossi and Murray are the two candidates most known statewide, they are both almost 100% assured to go on to November.

Not saying that Rossi couldn't be tea bagged, but very unlikely.


[ Parent ]
Murray v Rossi
I don't see Rossi doing nearly that well. The Washington Poll gives him  40% to Murray's 44% but Elway gives him only 34% to Murray's 51%. Washington Poll began their landline-only calls on May 3rd and finished analysis on May 20th. Elway Poll released May 5th is based upon cell and landline calls place May 3-5.

I expect Murray to win with an 8 point margin at least and look forward to the campaign's announcement tomorrow of the fundraising bonanza the Rossi announcement produced.

Rossi's support comes from mainstream Republicans in Seattle and Spokane. Rural Republicans are likely to split between Didier and Benton. The teaparty crowd is standing with Didier especially after Palin's endorsement last week. If Rossi makes it through the primary, he will have been tarred by teaparty folks already up in arms about his "How to Make Money off Foreclosure Property" seminars.


[ Parent ]

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