2:46am: Ada County is now all in, and it was a landslide for Labrador: 58-35. With that, SSP is calling it a night! Overall, Labrador has a 48-39 lead on Ward with 426 of 462 precincts reporting.
2:34am: Kootenai, the last best hope of mankind Ward, is now all in, closing the gap to 45.5-40.2 for Raul, but the margin is still 3400 votes with 378 precincts in. This thing rests on Boise, but the indications are that that's Labrador country.
2:30am: If anyone is mopey about Vaughn Ward losing tonight, just remember these words: Raul Labrador is Bill Sali's BFF.
2:27am: But that doesn't mean we'll stop updating! We're now at 369/462 (using our corrected math that the AP has yet to notice) and Labrador still has a solid 3400 vote lead.
2:20am: SSP is going to call this baby for Raul Labrador, with our model showing him headed for a 47-40 victory over Vaughn Ward. (jeffmd)
2:11am: We actually think there's a glitch on the AP's back end (and our own). Ada county is actually reporting 64 precincts total -- that is, for both ID-01 and ID-02. The actual number of Ada precincts that have reported in ID-01 is between 32 and 34 right now. This shouldn't affect the final result, though, as Labrador is currently beating Ward by a wide margin there. So this brings us down to 348 precincts overall and a 46-40 edge for Labrador.
1:51am: We're up to 371 precincts, and Labrador leads by 46-40 (or about 3400 votes). Labrador looks good to win this thing -- and while I know that may seem disappointing to fans of Vaughn Ward's idiocy, I have a hunch that this Bill Sali-grade Republican is gonna turn out to be a pretty fun guy to run against, too.
1:41am: I spoke too soon! Our sheet is now up to 332/462. Still a 46-40 Raul lead, though.
1:40am: Oops, the AP has leap-frogged us. Their count, at 325/462, has Labrador up by 46-40. We'll update our sheet again soon.
1:26am: Check out GOP incumbent Mike Simpson's sucky showing in ID-02. He's surviving his required teabagging, but only has 57% of the vote with about three quarters reporting.
1:20am: Finally, some daylight. 286/462 now in, and Labrador leads by 47-40.
1:17am: Check it out, Swingnuts. We've now added a "projection" column on our spreadsheet -- based on the votes we're seeing so far, we currently project that Raul Labrador will win this sumbitch by 3255 votes.
1:12am: Oh whoa, we're halfway there! 235/462 now in, and Raul leads by 4% (or about 1600 votes).
1:09am: 225/462 in (check out our spreadsheet, we're faster than the AP!), and Labrador is up by just under 1500 votes.
1:04am: 214/462 now, and it's 45-41 for the Lab.
12:59am: 195/462 now, and Raul leads by 44-41.
12:57am: If you want to see our results spreadsheet in action, click here. We'll be keeping it updated!
12:51am: 168/462 now, and hey, movement! 45-41 for Labrador, who's continuing to do well in the Southern part of the district. (jeffmd)
12:47am: 156 precincts in, and, guess what!!!! Still 44-42 for Raul.
12:41am: Pass the dutchie pon' the lef' 'and side. 139 precincts in, and Raul still leads by 44-42.
12:36am: 132 precincts now, and Labrador still has a 44-42 lead. The biggest wildcard left seems to be Kootenai county, where Ward crushed among absentees. He'll need to do well in the election day vote there to have a shot at winning this.
12:26am: 113 precincts plus the absentees gets us back to a 44-42 Labrador lead.
12:21am: 107 precincts and our assortment of absentees gives Labrador a 43-vote lead out of 21,000 votes counted so far.
12:18am: With 91 precincts and a grab-bag of absentees, Ward has pulled into a 43-43 tie with Labrador.
12:14am: We're now at 81 precincts plus assorted absentees, and Labrador is still leading by 43-42. Geographically, Labrador is doing well in the north. Ward's doing better in the south.
12:09am: The AP has also called the GOP gube nod for incumbent Butch Otter, who only has 55% of the vote so far. Not impressive at all!
12:07am: With 74 precincts in, plus absentee ballots from Ada and Kootenai counties, Labrador leads Ward by 44-43.
12:01am: And over in ID-02, the AP has called the race for GOP Rep. Mike Simpson. I'll be interested to see his final margin, though.
12:00am: With 67 of 462 precincts reporting (plus Ada absentees), Raul Labrador now has a 47-41 lead on Vaughn Ward.
11:49pm: SSP's latest count: With 36 precincts reporting (plus Ada), Labrador leads by 45-42.
11:40pm: Uh, for anyone anxiously waiting for more results out of Ada, check out what their website says: "As in previous years, it is our goal to update our Web results at least once every hour-and-a-half. More frequent Web updates would cause further delays in the counting process, since all counting machines must stop counting in order for us to update results." Jeez Louise.
11:34pm: Now we're at 15 precincts (plus Ada), giving Labrador a 46-42 lead. Simpson leads Heileson by 58-26.
11:30pm: The SSP bean-counters now have the race at 45-42 for Labrador. This count includes 10 precincts district-wide plus the Ada County absentees.
11:24pm: The AP has called the Democratic gubernatorial nomination for Keith Allred!
11:22pm: Keep an eye on ID-02, where GOP Rep. Mike Simpson is leading John Birch Society member M.C. Chick Heileson by 57-26 so far after adding up the nums from all sources.
11:14pm: Adding everything up from all sources (unfortunately, no one source has all the reported results just yet), Raul is up by 46-42 on Ward.
11:07pm: Alright, we have our first results. Check out the Ada County link at the bottom -- Labrador leads Ward by 1,824 to 1,551 votes there. (These are the absentee ballots.)
10:53pm: We should get our first taste of results some time after polls close in the Pacific Time area of the state (in seven minutes), so hang tight. The key counties to watch are Kootenai (Couer d'Alene), Ada (Boise) and Canyon (Nampa).
Most polls in Idaho close at 8 pm Mountain time (10 Eastern), with some closing at 8 pm Pacific (11 Eastern). We're a little early for liveblogging, but we may as well get the results thread up now so that you can crack open a sixer and share your predictions in the comments. Also, if you have any additional results links, please post 'em in the comments.
