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CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Fiorina, Whitman Soar in New SUSA Poll

by: James L.

Mon May 24, 2010 at 9:41 PM EDT


SurveyUSA (5/21-23, likely and actual voters, 5/6-9 in parens):

Meg Whitman (R): 54 (39)
Steve Poizner (R): 27 (37)
Others (R): 10 (7)
Undecided: 9 (14)
(MoE: ±4%)

This is a pretty dramatic gyration for SurveyUSA here, who previously showed a significant tightening of the GOP gubernatorial race just a couple of weeks ago. Keep in mind that two other very recent polls (from Research 2000 and the Public Policy Institute of California) both showed Whitman up on Poizner by only 10 points or less. Among those voters who have already cast their ballots (17% of the sample), Whitman leads Poizner by 55-32.

Senate numbers:

Tom Campbell (R): 23 (35)
Carly Fiorina (R): 46 (24)
Chuck DeVore (R): 14 (15)
Tim Kalemkarian (R): 4 (3)
Undecided: 11 (23)
(MoE: ±4%)

Again, this dramatically different than every other poll we've seen, with R2K giving Campbell a 37-22 edge on Fiorina and PPIC also giving Fiorina an edge on Campbell, but only by 25-23. Either this one is a huge outlier, or SUSA is seeing something pretty dramatic that other pollsters have missed. Among those who have already voted, SUSA finds that Fiorina holds a 44-30 lead over Campbell.

In other news, Barbara Boxer has announced that her campaign has raised $2 million since the start of April, bringing her cash-on-hand up to $9.6 million.
James L. :: CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Fiorina, Whitman Soar in New SUSA Poll
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CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Fiorina, Whitman Soar in New SUSA Poll | 16 comments
I know
I'd rather have Fiorina, but am I wrong in thinking Whitman would be the better one for us?
Boxer and Fiorina/Whitman
I am a HUGE Boxer fan and think she will win in 2010, however, I think if Whitman and Fiorina both win their primaries (which still are up in the air, more so for fiorina) they will be an extremely strong ticket that would attract a lot of female suburban support. I could definitely see them both tacking more to the center after the primaries and they both have the money to give boxer a lot of trouble. i will be rooting for barbara in the fall but this could get close
Fiorina is fatally flawed...
Her HP disaster will haunt her terribly in California.  She's the one we want to face.
[ Parent ]
I bet Meg has jumped in the polls with her ads
That have been painting Poizner as a gasp liberal, with such liberal things as GASP supporting Al Gore's Recount!!!

What I don't understand is, unless CA Republicans just love Bush, wouldn't this be a plus in some odd way of making Poizner look like he has never supported a president with historically low approval ratings?

Of course, these two are trying to out conservative each other by using a gigantic amount of advertisements, hell, I saw like 20 during my Lost-Fest last night.  I'll bet these things will stick in dem and indy voters heads come election time, and won't stand a chance is Solid Blue CA.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

I disagree, the key Meg ads are the _positive_ ones
Mitt Romney, Condoleezza Rice... that is a very good, positive commercial.

And it contrasts well with the hysteria of both the Poizner and Whitman negative ads.

This positive ad goes back to her early ads which were very good, before she went insane and went negative on a dude she was beating by 30 points.

[ Parent ]
I dunno
The only ads I see are the ones that say at the end, Steve Poizner: Just another Liberal Sacramento Politician.

That is by far the ad I see the most often when watching television.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I've
seen a few positive ads from Whitman, but the rest are bashing Steve Poizner. And I can confirm Poizner is up on the air here in the Bay Area because I saw an attack ad this weekend attacking Whitman on the show me your paper's law and Barbara Boxer.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Three totally different pictures of CA-Sen
We have a big Campbell lead, a statistical tie with a bunch of undecideds, and now a big Fiorina lead, from three pretty reliable pollsters. I'm interested to see what numbers PPP comes up with later this week, and when Field comes out again.

Tough race to categorize, but with Campbell going dark, I'd say it's Fiorina's to lose right now.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

oh good PPP did poll it!
I wasn't sure if they were still polling the top 2. I thought they were just doing SC and I got sad  
[ Parent ]
Remember, 1 in 20 polls (at least from reputable firms) are rogues
assuming a 95% confidence level.

Unless there's been something huge over the past couple of weeks for both Whitman and Fiorina, I'd want to see a second poll that confirms the trend.

OTOH, if there is a near future poll that confirms these numbers, then perhaps Meg's money hasn't maxed out in effectiveness.

We'll have a second poll soon
PPP will be out tomorrow, I believe. And, from what I know about the numbers, prepare to be rocked.
[ Parent ]
Rocked?
In terms of general or primary?
[ Parent ]
PAthetic DeVore internal
Who puts out an internal showing them in 3rd place in a 3 way race?!?! According to Red State, a DeVore internal has the race at 28-26-19 Fiorina-Campbell-Devore
That can't be right, anyway
Way too many undecideds for this late in the game. I could see DeVore at 19%, although that's hardly a boffo showing.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Thats the point
He wanted to show lots of undecideds and a close race to show that he is still viable. I would NOT put it past his campaign to doctor poll results.  
[ Parent ]
I think the Senate poll is the result of money
Fiorina's got it and Campell doesn't.  She can afford to blanket California with positive ads, negative ads, and spooky sheep from now until election day, and the other two can't.
CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Fiorina, Whitman Soar in New SUSA Poll | 16 comments

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