Google Ads


Site Stats

WA-Sen: Rossi Sounds Likely to Run

by: Crisitunity

Mon May 24, 2010 at 7:33 PM EDT


Univ. of Washington (5/3-23, registered voters):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 44
Dino Rossi (R): 40
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±2.8%)

A new poll from the University of Washington shows a fairly close contest in the hypothetical race between Patty Murray and Dino Rossi, although within the general range that non-SurveyUSA pollsters have pegged it. Interestingly, they actually find "Generic Republican" overperforming Rossi a bit (there, Murray wins 42-39), despite the way that Rossi has performed much better against Murray in other polls compared with the little-known Don Bentons and Clint Didiers of the world. Murray's approval is 51/34, pretty strong by today's I-hate-everybody-but-especially-incumbents standards.

There are a few other interesting tidbits in here, such as a 42-37 generic ballot advantage for Dems in the state legislature, and 58-30 support for I-1077 (which would create an income tax for high earners). Maybe this, plus Measures 66/67 in Oregon and Prop 100 in Arizona, may at some point kill the "it's an anti-tax year!" meme.

The race may not stay hypothetical for much longer, though. The AP is reporting that anonymous GOP sources are saying that Rossi is getting ready to announce, perhaps as soon as Wednesday. His own spokesperson wouldn't confirm, but said he'd have a statement in midweek. Politico reports that he's hired not quite a manager, but at least a prominent consultant: former Enron lobbyist Pat Shortridge. Seems like a good time to remind everyone that no one (with the exception of Frank Lautenberg under unusual circumstances) in more than a decade has won a Senate race getting in this late, especially when starting from essentially $0 in the cash department.

The DSCC's preemptive oppo operation got one last hit in over the weekend, announcing that Rossi's investment group had purchased foreclosed property in Seattle. In and of itself, charges of buying a foreclosed building are kind of weak sauce. But this follows quickly on claims from the GOP, in defense of Rossi's appearance at a how-to-buy-foreclosures seminar, that "Dino has had no involvement with foreclosure investments throughout his real estate career." Ooops.

Crisitunity :: WA-Sen: Rossi Sounds Likely to Run
Tags: , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Poll
I see good news for both in it. The high number of undecided Dems gives Murray a lot of room to go up, but the high-number of undecideds in the East, who will mostly break for Rossi, looks good for him.  

Bring it
Murray is an extremely polished, tough politician with good favorables in a blue state.  Rossi's going to need to run a near-perfect campaign in order to win.  

I for one, don't see it happening.  Somewhere between Lean and Likely D, IMO.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


Damn. What a stinker of a poll.
I guess Elway was an outlier; I'm sure SurveyUSA will poll soon, though not this weekend since it's Memorial Day.

Washington is a pretty Democratic state today
Overall, that is. Rossi should just decide whether to run and announce NOW, or forget about it. But I don't like his chances. If he were to win, that would probably mean the Democrats had already netted a loss of 8 Senate seats or more.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


I don't see Rossi winning this
Senate has a higher hurdle than Governor. He'll have to position himself on national issues.

At which point he could become a RINO as well.
eom

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
How I see this one...
Indie - 38%
Democrat - 32%
GOP - 30%

Murray - 48/93/10 = 51%
Rossi - 52/7/90 = 49%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Any reason to think Rossi would win independents?


[ Parent ]
"Independents" vary greatly from state to state, and...
...as a rule, they are more liberal and vote more strongly Democratic in blue states, and they are more conservative and vote more strongly Republican in red states.  Obviously, their leaning in a state is one of the two big factors, the other being D-R ratio, in determining the state is red or blue.

I don't know what independents are usually like in Washington, but the state's consistent Democratic voting in my adult life suggests they lean left.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Tell that to Senator Coakley
"they are more liberal and vote more strongly Democratic in blue states"
Brown won well over 60%, maybe even into the 70's according to some polls, with Indys. Rules break, and when they do, they can break big. If SUSA's approval numbers for Murray are to be believed (I don't think this poll had them), then Murray would do much worse among Indy's and Rossi could do better with GOP.

[ Parent ]
SUSA was an outlier, you might as well trust Rasmussen as that poll.......
SUSA is usually pretty good, but when they're wrong, they're waaaaay wrong.  And they've consistently been wrong whenever an outlier compared to other contemporaneous polls.

Murray's got positive job approvals consistently in poll after poll, and she's in good shape.  Rossi has the smell of defeat from back-to-back statewide losses, that doesn't help him.

And yeah Brown found lightning in a bottle, that's just the exception that proves the rule.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
SUSA
SUSA's last two polls have had her approval at 43-50 and the last had her at 48-47. I don't know what other polls have shown on her approvals though.  

[ Parent ]
This race is not comparable to the MA Senate special
Special elections are called "special" for a reason. I think it's very hard to extrapolate from those results how independents will break in a regularly scheduled general election in a different state. It's sort of useless to compare the two, IMHO.

What happened in Massachusetts was a perfect storm that I think will be hard to repeat at a statewide level in a place like Washington. Scott Brown was very much in the right place at the right time.


[ Parent ]
I was just saying
He said that independents in blue states always break for Dems. I was saying that it can happen where they don't, and when they don't, they don't big time.  

[ Parent ]
Difference being
Murray will actually campaign.

[ Parent ]
If we compare all elections with MA-Special, then

then republicans have no safe seats. Shelby now has less difference than Coakley has in october or november. The candidates in Utah, the same.

Is not right think we can compare every election with a exception.


[ Parent ]
That seems highly
optimistic for Rossi, getting this late a start and getting this many bumps before ever even announcing his run. And running against an incumbent like Murray no less, who always finds a way to handily dispatch highly touted opponents.  

[ Parent ]
I'm confident Murray wins, but this is yet another pain in the ass......
That's what's hard about this, it's yet one more headache for us, even though we're likely to end up winning.  We now have to work harder to hold the seat, sucking resources away from elsewhere.

Damn.

Just as I start to feeling better about some races, other races turn against us.  NV-Sen in particular is starting to look better, but we have to work extra hard for WA-Sen?  Feingold dodges Thompson, but Alexi takes a small (hopefully temporary) dive in neighboring Illinois?

And I'm done even trying to game out Florida, except to say that Rubio is in the strongest long-term position of the 3.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


Not really
Murray just needs to spend her own money; but she already had that. So, I don't see this race absorbing too many national resources.  

[ Parent ]
No one
has entered this late and won in a long time. I doubt Rossi will break that trend. This is somewhat good news for the GOP but not really if they really wanted to contest this seat they should have gotten someone much better than Rossi. He is not top tier by any means when you look at what they could have offered. Although the better candidates probably didn't want to blow their careers over a suicide mission. Rossi has nothing to lose, he knows he can't make it through a gubernatorial primary in 2012 and this is his last chance. Also this more than likely means that the GOP will waste much needed money here. I would rank this at lean D for now but could see moving it to likely D in the near future. How much CoH does Rossi have? He will need a lot.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

What exacly could we have offered?
I don't think we get much better than a guy who had a governor's race stolen from him. Rossi can raise a few million quick. I wouldn't be surprised to see him break 2 million this quarter.  

[ Parent ]
Stolen?
Got proof?

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Just as much proof that Bush stole Florida in 2000


20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Thank you
Better than any answer I could have come up with.
When someone leads after the initial count and 1st recount, then mysteriously loses after a 2nd (or was it 3rd) recount, I find it suspicious. Same with MN Sen.  

[ Parent ]
I have to get to bed...
.. I have to be at work in 6 hours so I don't have time for an extended discussion but at least in the Minnesota Senate recount it was as fair and open as possible IMO. Every judge at every level (most appointed by Republicans) ruled in favor of Franken.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Bush won Florida (I think)
Nobody will ever know for sure but I think GWB had the most votes cast in Florida in 2000.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
We will never know because ...
... five Repub members of the U.S. Supreme Court voted to stop the counting or recounting of the votes in Florida. But lengthy post-mortem examinations by media of votes at the county level showed considerable flimflammery by Repubs and a real Democratic majority of the votes.

[ Parent ]
The "proof" is similar to what some propose for the census
http://www.seattlepi.com/local...

These were the two rejected arguments:

The GOP legal strategy was two-fold: persuade Bridges the blunders were so egregious that he should apply a standard allowed in fraudulent elections, in which the results can be thrown out simply on the grounds that the number of clouded votes casts doubt on the outcome; or convince him to subtract illegal votes from the candidates' totals in proportion to the overall percentage of the vote each candidate received in the affected precinct, even without direct evidence for whom the illegal votes were cast.

The only evidence that was allowed were affadavits from five felons who said that they were allowed to vote (even though felons are not allowed to vote in WA state). Those votes were for Rossi, and were subtraced from his total.

The nature of returns today means bigger precincts report later. As the biggest precincts in WA are in King County (mostly Seattle), late votes pushed Gregoire over the top.

And the way WA votes work, mail-in absentees are accepted as long as they're postmarked by election day. So it was easy for the GOP to push the perception that King County "bosses" held these votes in reserve from alledgedly fraudulent voters.


[ Parent ]
Guys
come on, do you really want to get into this?

In terms of other candidates, I guess in theory there's Rob McKenna or one of the congressmen, especially Reichert even though it would mean an almost guaranteed loss of his seat.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yeah cut it out people
The partisanship in those comments is ridiculous and way off topic.

[ Parent ]
There is an analytical "horse race" question here
The way votes were counted in the WA '04 Gov election does point to a systematic problem with an "almost" all vote-by-mail systems.

a.k.a., when votes don't even arrive until days after election day, that can lead to FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) in a very close election.

And FUD under such circumstances leads to trouble. Late votes are certainly reminiscient of the vote manufacturing rumors associated with old political machines.


[ Parent ]
The question is
will the NRSC have the resources to prop up Rossi? Patty Murray has $6 million on hand, and Rossi only has a few months in which to catch up with that. Is the NRSC going to be able to afford to drop $5-10 million in order to him up? It would seem to me that they're going to have their hands full in the upper-tier races (Arkansas, Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Indiana -- North Dakota is a foregone conclusion and I'm betting they don't drop a dime in Delaware). Party spending can make the difference between a win and a loss when the candidate is heavily outspent. (Oregon 2008, for example.)

The NRSC won't have the resources to prop Rossi up.
Rossi won't be able to raise easy local money like he did when he challenged Gregoire. Then he had help from Boeing, Weyerhaeuser, Simpson and Microsoft execs who back Murray. At the end of March, Murray had $6 million on hand. I wouldn't be surprised if her cash on hand now wasn't closer to $9 million now. Rossi won't be able to close the resourse gap.



[ Parent ]
And Palin endorsed Didier, uh-oh (for the NRSC)


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


I mean it may spell trouble for the NRSC
Since they wanted Rossi to run.  

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
What took him so long?
I really don't get this one. Rossi had the chance to strike while the iron was hot in the wake of Scott Brown, but dawdled for four months before ultimately (we think) getting in. That's four months he could have used to fundraise and lay the groundwork against a very entrenched yet not unbeatable incumbent. I wonder what made him decide to get in now, when the polls are starting to show that the Dems have stemmed the bleeding to a degree?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

2 reasons
He didn't want to put his family thru a long campaign. He has always said if he ran, he wanted a sprint to the finish, not a marathon. He also wanted to have all the pieces in place after finally deciding to run. He is now fully staffed and probably has millions in pledges.  

[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox