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SSP Daily Digest: 5/21 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Fri May 21, 2010 at 8:11 AM EDT


  • CT-Sen: Yet another thing the New York Times appears to have gotten wrong: Dick Blumenthal was on his college swim team, and no, he never claimed to have been the captain. In light of recent revelations, SSP is retracting the accusation we made in our first post on the NYT article that Blumenthal "lied." Subsequent information has show that the NYT's piece was misleading, at best.
  • NV-Sen: Chicken Lady is up on the air with an ad attacking Crazy Lady, aka enriched weapons-grade wingnut Sharron Angle, for some pretty lulzy stuff. No word on the size of the buy. Meanwhile, Danny Tarkanian is also aiming (indirectly) at Angle, with a press release criticizing the Tea Party Express, which endorsed her and not him.
  • NY-Sen-B: Even I had given up on all the people who have given up, but it looks like there may be yet one more name on the list of people who want to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand. Gail Goode, a staffer for the NYC Corporation Council (the city attorney's office) supposedly wants to give it a go. Goode has a pretty unimposing pedigree and would have to go through the arduous and expensive process of petitioning to get on the ballot. Meanwhile, one of the hapless Republicans trying to take down Gillibrand, David Malpass, is on the air with a TV ad (this early? really?), but of course, no word on the size of the buy.
  • AL-Gov: Mystery wingnutty (?) birthery (?) teabaggy (?) group New Sons of Liberty was caught making prank calls to Moe's Tavern said "psych!" and cancelled their vaporware $1 million ad buy that was set to asplode in the Alabama governor's race. If this was just a gambit to gain free media by pretending to buy paid media, it's an awfully weird one, since we know little more about this group now than we did a week ago. Anyhow, how come ad buyers don't have to put down deposits, especially when they book so much airtime during ad peak season?
  • IA-Gov: Chet Culver has raised $1.5 million this year so far, but more than half his haul came directly from the Democratic Governors Association. Chief rival Terry Branstad raised $1.6m in the same timeframe. Culver leads in cash-on-hand, $3.3m to $1.2m. You also may have seen that Culver lost his campaign "briefing book," the bible by which any campaign is run. Reminds me of when the Indiana Pacers lost their playbook right before a playoff series with the Knicks. (The Knicks won.)
  • AL-05: Mo Brooks, mankind's last, best hope of defeating turncoat Parker Griffith in the GOP primary, announced a whole slew of endorsements from local elected officials and party bigwigs. Interestingly, on the list was the GOP chair for Limestone County, who elected not to support the incumbent, which is a fairly unusual move for a party official.
  • AR-03: Damn - looks like we won't have Gunner DeLay to kick around anymore, at least for this cycle. The ex-legislator, who narrowly missed out on the runoff, backed off his plans to seek a recount and instead endorsed second-place finisher Cecile Bledsoe, a state senator. She squares off against Rogers (pop. 39K) Mayor Steve Womack. With Gunner gone, we're getting desperately low on awesome names.
  • CA-11: After previously saying he wished he could issue "hunting permits" for liberals because we "need to thin the herd," Republican jackass Brad Goehring isn't backing down in the least - rather, he says he's "proud" of all the flack he's been getting. What a guy!
  • ID-01: In his ongoing quest to assume the title of Bill Sali 2.0, budding SSP fave Vaughn Ward repeatedly referred to Puerto Rico in a debate as a "country." When corrected by his Puerto Rican opponent, he proudly reveled in his ignorance, saying he didn't "care what it is." That alone should garner him some good wingnut cred.
  • LA-03: Make them sweat? Despite not really having a candidate in this deep-red seat that most Dems have mentally given up on, the DCCC put out a press release walloping former Louisiana Speaker Hunt Downer, who just got into the race. They accuse Downer, who just retired as a major general from the National Guard, of abandoning his state in favor of his political ambitions instead of dealing with the BP oil spill. Dunno if this charge is really going to stick, though, seeing as Downer said he planned his retirement long ago.
  • MN-06: It's always rich when anti-tax zealots fuck up paying their taxes - something Michele Bachmann just did by failing to pay her own property taxes on time.
  • NY-13: Vito Fossella is shocked, shocked!... I mean, surprised! that he was nominated for his old seat by the Staten Island GOP on Wednesday. (Read this if you need to catch up on one of the most remarkable bits of WTF? this cycle.) He says he'll "take a short period of time" to decide if they like him, they really, really like him - i.e., whether to take the plunge. I'm not buying the "short period of time" business, since Fossella said he wants to talk this over with "loved ones," which ought to take him quite a while, given how many families he has.

    Meanwhile, Michael Allegretti, one of two candidates (not including Vito Fossella) seeking the GOP nomination to take on Rep. Mike McMahon, says he plans on staying in the race regardless of what Vito does. There had been some chatter that local Republicans wanted him to run for the state Assembly instead, but that would be a pretty sucky alternative, to say the least.

  • FEC: Instant SSP hero Rep. Susan Davis (D-CA-53) offered an amendment to the DISCLOSE Act (the bill designed to take the Citizens United ruling down a peg or two) which would require that all independent expenditures be filed electronically with the FEC, and be "searchable, sortable and downloadable." The amendment passed unopposed, so hopefully it will emerge intact in the final bill. Now if only the damn Senate would join the 20th century and file electronically, too.
  • Spoilers: Don't even think about talking about LOST.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/21 (Morning Edition)
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    IA-Gov
    I don't understand why Culver's briefing book is being made out to be a big deal. He was being briefed on the unemployment rate in various places he visited, as well as specific programs being funded there by his I-JOBS state bonding initiative for infrastructure and flood recovery projects. Oh yeah, and the book said he should wear a tie to the event with Joe Biden on Tuesday.

    I get that it's not good for his briefing book to be leaked to Politico, but what did Ben Smith find so newsworthy in there?

    On the fundraising, I agree, it doesn't look good for half of Culver's money to come from the DGA in the latest reporting period. Then again, it's hard to raise money when you're behind in the polls, and during the Iowa legislative session (January through March) he wasn't able to do as much fundraising. Throw in the campaign staff turmoil and the numbers are not surprising. At Bleeding Heartland I listed all the contributors of at least $10K to Culver and Branstad.


    other statewide Iowa offices
    The latest set of financial reports show that the Democratic state treasurer and secretary of state have huge financial advantages over their Republican challengers. The Republican secretary of agriculture also has way more money than the Democrat. However, the Republican candidate for attorney general, Brenna Findley, has almost as much cash on hand as our 28-year incumbent Democrat Tom Miller. She is the longtime chief of staff for Congressman Steve "10 Worst" King, and former Governor Terry Branstad is talking her up everywhere he campaigns.

    is Miller in trouble?
    He shouldn't be resting on his laurels here, Steve King's Chief of Staff shouldn't be let anywhere near state government.  

    [ Parent ]
    I don't think he's in trouble
    He was returned to the AG's office in 1994, a horrible year for Iowa Democrats.

    I am told he is not taking this election for granted and will be running a serious campaign.


    [ Parent ]
    IA-Sen
    Chuck Grassley voted several times to stop debate from starting on the financial reform bill, then this week voted twice against cloture motions to end debate on the bill, then turned around and voted for the bill yesterday (along with New England Repubs Snowe, Collins and Brown). In his statement Grassley said the bill was "a step in the right direction" despite flaws and bragged about his amendments that were included. Worried about the challenge from Roxanne Conlin? Maybe. Conlin's campaign released a statement taking credit for grassroots pressure that got Grassley to support the bill after voting five times to block it.

    Thank you
    For backing off from the lie claim regarding Blumenthal.

    How the might have fallen!
    The Times owes Blumenthal an apology. Not that he will get one.

    [ Parent ]
    When the story broke
    I wrote that Blumenthal should drop out... but that if it's found that the Times was exaggerating or lied, then it would be a huge blow the credibility of the NYT. I'm starting to believe the latter. The story now feels like a New York Post tabloid more than anything else. Pretty sad for the gold standard of newspapers.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    The latest quote
    Somebody pointed out at Political Wire that it doesn't make sense.

    "Blumenthal is clearly misspeaking here. He has a problem using "in" instead of "during".

    Here he says: "In Vietnam, we had to endure taunts and insults".

    Someone tell me how the hell did veterans fighting in Vietnam endure taunts in Vietnam? Logically, it's just not possible. He meant to say during the Vietnam era. Instead of using "during", he used "in".

    This whole thing has been blown out of proportion if you ask me."

    I agree.
     


    [ Parent ]
    While I think the NYT needs to issue a retraction
    instead, they're digging deeper... http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05...

    By the same reporter who "broke" the original story.

    One assumes that Mr. Hernandez is getting additional scrutiny from the editors at this point.


    [ Parent ]
    Seems to me
    Blumenthal is guilty of nothing more than using poor grammar.

    [ Parent ]
    I suppose.
    It's still not great what he did because let's face it, we all use words in cunning ways to get what we want from time to time. Still, I agree it's not a lot more than incorrect grammar and misspeaking. Sad day for the NYT.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    [ Parent ]
    Except Kirk did it once
    And does work in the war room. There is a big difference between saying "I was in charge of the war room," when you work in it compared to "I was in Vietnam" or "I came home from Vietnam" when you didn't.  

    [ Parent ]
    Point being
    People can be misled even when that isn't the intention.

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    I really regret believing that article. I fully take back my statements regarding replacing him or supporting Republicans. It is clear that he did no real wrong and the Times just did a real crappy job reporting.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Ditto.
    I take back all my Blumenthal trash talk. As an Aspie it is harder for me to tell whether an article is a hit piece or not.

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    Heh, in my defence...
    I only ever talked tactics, about who we should replace Blumenthal with, and spoke nothing on the merits of the story itself.

    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    I wish I had done the same. I read it early in the morning before I had my coffee and skimmed the story, got pissed and wrote a really rash comment. The lesson I learned is never to post a comment or do much of anything before I have my coffee. :)

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    LA-3
    Sangisetty is in the race, but doesn't have much of a chance.  This is the second most likely district to flip to the Republicans, behind only TN-6.

    Actually I think LA-03 is the most likely district to switch.
    Both of the Dem candidates in TN-06 are war veterans (one from the current conflict in Iraq) so on paper they are probably stronger than this Sangisetty guy. But its probably only slight, both districts are Likely Republican takeovers at this point.

    [ Parent ]
    "this Sangisetty guy"
    has actually been fundraising fairly well, and when it comes to priciness, LA is no NY.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Be that as it may
    the Democratic attack on Downer seems off-base to me, and I doubt it'll go anywhere. If Sangisetty wins, it will be for some other reason.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Rand Paul: White House criticism of BP "really un-American"
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/201...

    WASHINGTON - Kentucky's Republican Senate candidate Rand Paul is criticizing President Barack Obama's handling of the gulf oil debacle as putting "his boot heel on the throat of BP."

    Paul says Obama's criticism of the oil company sounds like an attack on business and "really un-American."

    Of all the people to defend, BP?


    Wow
    This dude seriously has a screw loose.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large

    [ Parent ]
    Let's just be glad he waited
    until after the primary to go completely around the bend!

    [ Parent ]
    The political ad writes itself
    Air this to poor Appalachian voters, "Criticizing oil companies anti-American? Rand Paul thinks so."

    [ Parent ]
    Like father, like son.


    [ Parent ]
    One of my hobbies...
    is to watch political trainwrecks. Rand Paul has been awesome for me.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    The man has awesome entertainment value

    I can't argue with Kentucky Republicans about that.  If he does win he'll be a more than worthy successor to Jim Bunning as Wild Crazy Mountain Man.

    [ Parent ]
    Criticizing --British-- Petroleum
    is un-American?

    [ Parent ]
    Hah, I noticed that too
    clearly BP is all just closet socialists!

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    What's ironic, though,
    is that Paul would probably be a better vote for Dems than Republicans in the Senate. Not that he would ever vote for anything of Obama's agenda, neither would Grayson. Plus, he would dissent on a lot of GOP amendments. AND he would be a great fundraising tool a la Michele Bachmann.

    And he's very beatable. So, yeah, we lucked out on this one.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


    [ Parent ]
    Loose cannon? I was a bit disappointed
    when right after Rand Paul won his primary he said he'd support McConnell for minority leader next session if he wins the Senate seat.

    I think he would still likely be a loose cannon, but I was hoping for a REALLY loose cannon libertarian guy that Mitch would have to deal with. Oh well.


    [ Parent ]
    Where is the KCCL poll from IA?
    I haven't seen this poll posted anywhere. It show Gov. Culver improving at 41% to 48% to Gov. Branstad.

    It also shows something more interesting, the US senate race where Conlin continues to gain on Sen. Grassley, 49% to Roxanne's 40%.

    I haven't seen any reporting on this at all. Has anyone else?


    it's a couple of weeks old
    I covered it at Bleeding Heartland here.

    Here's the link to the questions and crosstabs at the KCCI site.

    It was an encouraging poll. I didn't expect to see Culver gain on Branstad, who has been advertising statewide for more than a month and campaigning full-time since January.

    I expect Selzer to release a new Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register soon. That will indicate whether the Research 2000 poll for KCCI was in the ballpark or whether it was an outlier.


    [ Parent ]
    For those of you on Twitter
    You will notice that "Rand Paul" is trending. I'm trying to start my own trending topic that includes Rand Paul. I'm using the Hashtag #RandPaulSupports followed by something crazy. My examples include:

    #RandPaulSupports the war against Zenu
    #RandPaulSupports cupcakes
    #RandPaulSupports the Dallas Cowboys winning the World Series

    It's a fun time to be had for all.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


    Supports the Dallas Cowboys winning the World Series
    Well, if it is un-American to criticize a British company . . . .

    [ Parent ]
    Priceless
    I wonder if Rand Paul supports a company that produces football bats?

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    What about #RandPaulOpposes?
    #RandPaulOpposes standurdeyezed grahmer americuns shuld b fre 2 rite lik thay wunt.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Very nice
    #RandPaulOpposes YOU!

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    No, no. That's wrong.
    It's "#RandPaulOpposes U!"

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Sounds like a bad Soviet Union joke
    "In America, you oppose Rand Paul, but in Soviet Russia, Rand Paul oppose YOU!"

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Lost
    David, you do realize that after the finale, you're not going to be able to avoid hearing what happened on Lost.  Maybe you can keep it off this blog, but let's be honest its going to be the biggest series finale since Seinfeld.

    Get cracking on the episodes you missed.  


    LOL
    When Fossella said that he wanted to talk about the race with his loved ones, I thought the same thing.

    NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

    On CT-Sen and ID-01......
    CT-Sen:  I continued to feel embarrassed that I bought wholesale the NYT story, based on my respect for the paper.  But not only did the Times paint a very incomplete history of Blumenthal's rhetorical history regarding his military service, but they now turns out to have been wrong about Blumenthal on the Harvard swim team.

    It was really sloppy journalism, and that they're digging in is embarrassing and disgusting.  The professional response would be to admit substantial error and do a new story painting a complete picture, which I'm not sure completely exculpates Blumenthal, but raises substantial doubt whether he's been dishonest.

    But now the NYT rightfully is getting bashed for poor work, and worse yet sticking by poor work.

    I, for one, will never trust the NYT at face value ever again.

    ID-01:  I had always assumed and argued that this district is just way too conservative for any Democrat to hold it.  Sali was the one guy I figured Minnick could beat, and of course even then it was a narrow 50-45.  But Minnick's voting record, the recognition he's getting for it, and the problems the Republican alternatives are having are leaving Minnick with a very realistic path to victory.  Republicans ought to be nervous, and ought to be kicking themselves that they might be letting this one slip away.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    I'm actually quite impressed;
    it's the first real signs of life from Blumenthal's campaign yet. I mean it's been a very impressive rollout and rollback response, fantastic hustle really. I mean he even got all the major state newspapers with him on this, grabbing their campaign reporters and getting statements from all of them on how clear and how well-understood his service was.

    Not only did the Times edit the videofeed that they gave, (where earlier in his speech he said he did not serve in Vietnam, very clearly said so), but it turns out they misquoted the VFW person who supposedly told them that Blumenthal had told her about how he had been spit on when returning from Vietnam. In fact she asked that it be removed. This thing is falling apart so fast that the McMahon campaign has already stepped back from their suggestions that they "leaked" this.

    It's a sad day when the NYT simply prints lock stock and barrel Republican opposition research without bothering, it seems, to even do a cursory bit of, you know, real journalism of their own. I think they must have a serious grudge with Blumenthal or something, because they've been trying to discredit him in this race for a while. Remember the article talking about what a poor campaigner he was and how rusty he seemed to be?


    [ Parent ]
    To be fair, beyond the NYT, it sounded as though
    he was a rusty campaigner.

    [ Parent ]
    i really thought folks here were overreacting
    to the NYT blumenthal story, but I had neither the guts or the confidence to challenge our "sky is falling" reaction.

    i had read it in our local paper and i thought, wow, that very selectively presents blumenthal's exaggerations for the last 20 years.  and i'll tell you all politicians have lots of mistakes & exaggerations in 20 yrs of speechmaking - usually trying to ingratiate themselves to an audience as blumenthal was.  he did serve in the military, and may even have been spit upon in the early 70s.

    and president clinton, president bush, vp gore and vp cheney all got elected to relatively high office depsite deferments and mushy answers about their service.


    [ Parent ]
    Nobody should ever feel uncomfortable
    Sharing their opinions here. We are all friends.

    [ Parent ]
    ID-01 was acctually a 51-49 win for Minnick.
    50-45 I think is the margin Sali beat Grant by in 06 when he first ran. But yeah I agree this one isn't so assured for the GOP they just can't seem to get a candidate together.

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

    [ Parent ]
    I'm pulling HARD for Minnick
    He could be a legit candidate for governor and/or senator in the near future. Dems need to keep this guy around. And Idaho is cheap...a little fundraising can go a long way in that state.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    2014
    hopefully he could replace Butch Otter. It's been ages since Idaho had a Democratic governor. Boise is quickly turning blue and techie too, and it suburbs are even starting to shift to the left. Democrats will be competitive in Idaho again in a few decades.  

    [ Parent ]
    How about 2012?
    Think he could have a shot against Risch?

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    I doubt it
    He has a shot against wild extremists (Sali) and idiots (Ward). Not against non-idiots who pass for mainstream conservative Republicans today.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Ive been thinking the same thing
    Hopefully the green tech boom hits Boise good and hard and that that urban center grows so large that it'll completely dominate the state voting power wise and make Idaho a solid blue liberal state.  It's certainly possible.

    [ Parent ]
    We have a LOOOOOOOOONG
    Way to go before that is the case.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Aren't we assuming that the green tech industry
    actually becomes a big jobs producer? There really isn't that much evidence of this taking place in country's that have invested in them.  

    [ Parent ]
    He's no spring chicken
    He's currently 67, and if he were to run for Governor in 2014, he'd be 72 by election day. I'd be surprised if he had higher ambitions than the House.

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks, you're right, I got a case of temporary dyslexia & mixed up elections! (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    If you had told me a year ago
    That Bobby Bright and Walt Minnick were looking like at least 50/50 shots for re-election, and their Republican opponents were third-tier candidates, I would not have believed you.

    [ Parent ]
    Why would their constituents fire them
    When they vote the way they want? Scary Pelosi is a tough sell IMO.

    [ Parent ]
    "Scary Pelosi" is a tough sell EVERYWHERE. Republicans never learned from US...
    ...in 1996.  Our party ran against Scary Gingrich and got nothing more than the blue seats we were due to win back anyway after the 1994 anomaly.

    Voters don't care about particular political personalities EXCEPT for:  (1) the candidates themselves; and (2) the President of the United States.  And the President is a VERY DISTANT 2nd and often a complete non-factor to non-base voters.

    The NRCC has been completely stupid and incompetent, as if it's been run by teabagging morons for 3 cycles in a row.  NRCC staff regularly make TONS of Michale Steele-level communications gaffes that don't get more attention only because NRCC staff are never on TV.  The stupid hit against John Spratt is only the latest of many examples.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    ROTFL
    http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...

    This makes yesterday's Kentucky poll look reasonable.


    Wow. Just... Wow.
    Well, at least it shows Halter doing better than Lincoln!

    *eyeroll


    [ Parent ]
    My my,
    was that poll of just AR-03? Then it might make sense, lol.

    That does make a 25 point Paul lead look reasonable. I'd like to see R2000 and SUSA jump into the fray to correct the off-balanced Rasmussen and see how Paul's last few days, where he's obliterated all momentum he had coming off the primary win, have hurt him.  


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah i think the 538
    article about sampling conservative Democrats definitely is in action here.  

    [ Parent ]
    I think this will tighten


    [ Parent ]
    You know I definitely believe that Boozman is ahead by a comfortable margin
    And I think were probably gonna loose this seat. But the margins that Rasmusen has is just beyond ridiculous. So there both doing worse then Obama did? right. Especially, the number with Lincoln, she's an incumbant senator. I have a tough time believing that she's going to get under 30%.

    [ Parent ]
    Wat


    party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

    [ Parent ]
    BS
    So to everyone who was talking about Ras starting to get back to normal, what do you think now? Ras is not to be trusted. I don't care the poll, I will never trust them. I do believe Boozman is probably ahead by a lot and will likely win but Scotty is just WAY over the top.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Research 2000 polls CA for Kos
    Meg Whitman (R) 46 (52)
    Steve Poizner (R) 36 (19)
    Undecided 18 (29)

    Jerry Brown (D) 46 (45)
    Meg Whitman (R) 42 (41)
    Undecided 18 (29)

    Jerry Brown (D) 47 (48)
    Steve Poizner (R) 37 (33)
    Undecided 16 (19)

    Tom Campbell (R) 37 (33)
    Carly Fiorina (R) 22 (24)
    Chuck DeVore (R) 14 (7)
    Undecided 27 (36)

    Barbara Boxer (D) 47 (47)
    Tom Campbell (R) 40 (43)
    Undecided 13 (10)

    Barbara Boxer (D) 48 (49)
    Carly Fiorina (R) 39 (40)

    Barbara Boxer (D) 47 (49)
    Chuck DeVore (R) 38 (39)

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...


    Senate portion is interesting
    Most recent polls have shown Fiorina with late momentum, but R2K actually has Campbell widening his lead. Also, I can't believe that DeVore polls as well as Fiorina.

    I'm undecided as to who would have a better shot at beating Brown--Whitman, with her money, or Poizner, who comes off as less annoying and has actually voted for the past 28 years?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    His favorables are under water
    I think Brown beats either comfortably.

    [ Parent ]
    When push comes to shove, I still think Campbell's stronger than Fiorina
    If Campbell's the GOP nominee, the teabaggers will stay home and conservative turnout will be anemic. Yes, he'll chip 15% of Dems away from Boxer and probably edge her out with Indies, but that still only brings him into the mid-40s overall.

    With Fiorina, conservatives will GOTV, she too will probably edge Boxer out with Indies, and I could even see 10-13% of Dems voting for her. That basically brings her into a tie with Boxer.

    And, I still believe Boxer beats DeVore by 18-20%.  

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    (I mean, Fiorina's stronger than Campbell)


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    She has too much baggage
    Like being fired from HP for incompetence (makes for a good ad)

    [ Parent ]
    Possibly.
    But I think such an ad would be more effective if she had run for Governor. (If she can't competently run a business and was fired because of that, what makes her think she could competently run a state?) (At least Whitman wasn't fired.)

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    California and Pennslyvania are fools gold for Republicans.
    Other then the recall of Governor Davis the Republicans haven't won a statewide federal or governors race in either since 2000.  

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

    True I forgot about Specter I keep forgetting he was a
    GOPer back in the day.  

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

    [ Parent ]
    And Ahnold in 06
    n/t

    [ Parent ]
    NJ was probably the fools' gold-iest state
    until last year.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I voted Poizner for Insurance Commish in 2006
    Poizner's competitor in that race was the chair-swapping Cruz Bustamante. So I guess I really had no choice!

    Poizner is twisting himself in knots to win the primary. Whitman will beat him.

    That's the only time (2006) I've voted for a Republican.

    This time around, though, I may vote Whitman for gov, Cooley for AG (if the Repubs are smart enough to nominate him) and Maldanado for Lt Gv.

    If Fiorina gets nominated, I may take a second look at her but she's a little too right of center for my tastes.

    She's against the important Financial Reforms, like the creation of a Consumer Protection Agency.

    If Campbell gets nominated, I'll take a second look at him, too, but he's too fiscally conservative, again, for my tastes.

    I wish Boxer was being primaried--her personal demeanor with Inhofe ("elections matter") and the army general ("call me 'Senator,' not ma'am") is lacking of late.


    [ Parent ]
    PA statewide
    The Republicans won the AG's race in 2004 and 2008.  In addition, they have won the majority of the statewide judicial races in the same time frame.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    More Rasmussen
    Brewer 52, Goddard 39 http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    You know, maybe this is just the Republican in me, but I believe this one much more than I do the Paul and Boozman polls. The immigration bill has been very popular in Arizona, and Brewer is trying to make the election a referendum on the bill. The other Republican candidates have much smaller leads.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    I would buy that.
    Whatever the national consequences for the GOP (and this sort of immigration thing is a major net-loser for them in the long-term), it's beneficial in Arizona right now.

    [ Parent ]
    How about the GOP-Sen Numbers?
    McCain 52, Hayworth 40 http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    McCain is still holding relatively strong, though Ras is quick to point out that an incumbent with close to 50% is not a good thing.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


    [ Parent ]
    I think McCain has stopped the bleeding,
    though at the cost of whatever remained of his soul.

    [ Parent ]
    I dunno
    That AZ Primary is fairly late, Hayworth has a lot of time, and I hope he wins.  If these last few primaries have told us anything, it is that being an incumbent and/or the establishment choice is not going to be positives where they normaly would.  Specter was an incumbent with establishment support, and look where he is now.  I suspect McCain will be the GOP's Specter in AZ.  I cannot wait, because unlike in PA, having the incumbent lose actually increases the challengers chances.

    I really wanna see a senator Rodney Glassman.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    It worked
    for Pete Wilson in 1994.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Short term pain
    Long term gain.

    [ Parent ]
    Deep in the weeds - OR Superintendent of Public Instruction
    might still go to a runoff - between an incompetent incumbent and a anti-evolutionist.

    http://www.blueoregon.com/2010...

    It's a two person race between Susan Castillo, the Incumbent, and Ron Maurer, who per the Portland Mercury:

    http://www.portlandmercury.com...

    a man who doesn't "support evolution" and who thinks sex education should be "community driven." That's just ridiculous, guys. Ridiculous!

    Even though it's a 2-person race, there were 2k+ write-in votes. Castillo currently has 50.09%, http://egov.sos.state.or.us/di...

    which is about 600 votes above the 50%+1 threshold.

    with 17k votes to be counted per the Blue Oregon link, which Kari Chislom of Blue Oregon suggests are mostly from commuters who dropped off their ballots in the wrong county, aka suburban voters.

    Maurer was boosted by an endorsement from Willamette Week, per http://wweek.com/editorial/362... which suggests that Castillo is somewhat incompetent.

    If there's a runoff, it'll be held on the normal Nov election day.


    Fundraising
    The NRCC outraised the DCCC in April.

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

    But a big chunk of that was from GOP members.

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

    Meanwhile, the DNC took in $3.6m more than the NRC for the month.

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...


    Even more Bachmann goodness
    http://minnesotaindependent.co...

    Michele Bachmann and her husband have so far accepted $53,709 in state tax payer funds so that they can get free money to help run the Christian mental health clinic her husband opened.

    Good ole typical Republican politician.


    ID 01
    About half the Puerto Ricans refer to the island as a country, or pais.  Others refer to it as a state.  It's technically a commonwealth, but there is no convenient translation to that in Spanish.  Estado libre asociado (freely associated state) is used, but not exactly spot on accurate either.  Territory is probably most symantically correct, or colony, which isn't PC.

    "Whatever the hell it is" is a pretty good description.



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