Google Ads


Site Stats

Arkansas primary analysis

by: ARDem

Thu May 20, 2010 at 2:19 AM EDT


Now that the dust has settled and I've had time to reflect, I wanted to post a quick analysis of what happened in Arkansas last night, from a progressive Arkie's perspective.  Keep in mind, this is only meant to be an analysis of last night, and of nothing that's to come.  I don't think it's a perfect analysis, but it is my take.
ARDem :: Arkansas primary analysis
First, let's start with the biggie, the AR-Sen race.

Dem primary-Obviously, it was a big night for Halter supporters like myself.  Bill cleaned up in places I never imagined-dominating southwest Arkansas and picking up counties in Lincoln's home turf-Cross, St. Francis, Greene, Poinsett, etc.  What was odd was the fact that Lincoln won a few places where Halter was thought to be running strong in, namely Pulaski County, where Halter is from.  There's an interesting explanation for this, and I wouldn't have thought of it myself if one of my associates on Blue Arkansas hadn't pointed it out.  Halter is running an anti-establishment campaign.  You don't get more establishment in Arkansas Democratic politics than Pulaski County.  There has been a charge put out there that Halter drew in "GOP good ol' boys".  It's true that Halter did do better in rural, more conservative areas (which should put the electability suggestion Lincoln is trying to peddle to rest).  However, I don't think these count as Republican voters per se.  They are socially conservative, but they don't necessarily think government doesn't work.  They just think it's not working for them.  Halter's populist message, I think, is resonating.

GOPer primary-With all the excitement on the Dem side, John Boozman was able to quietly walk to victory.  Gilbert Baker's campaign flamed out as he got more desperate for attention, becoming incredibly ridiculous.  (Go to youtube and type in "sexy Arkansas cheerleader politician".)  The real drama, if there was any, was waiting to see if Jim Holt pulled into a runoff.  If that had happened, Boozman could have been the next Trey Grayson.  Sadly, it wasn't to be.

AR-01:

Dems-former state senator Tim Wooldridge and Berry CoS Chad Causey have advanced to the runoff.  We at Blue Arkansas were backing State Representative David Cook, a more progressive, populist style candidate, but he ended up placing third, the cash advantage being the problem.  Wooldridge made it to this runoff by virtue of his name recognition from his Lt. Gov race against Halter.  Causey by his connections to Berry.

GOP-Rick Crawford easily beat my old high school classmate Princella Smith.  How many Republicans in Arkansas do you think really were enthusiastic about voting for a black woman?

AR-02:

Dems-State senator Joyce Elliott (a progressive hero in the state) surged to an incredibly high total in the initial primary that no one had expected.  State house speaker Robbie Wills won everywhere outside Pulaski County, but not by impressive margins.  High African American and progressive turnout was responsible for the Elliott surge.

GOP-Tim Griffin easily raised/spent far more money than his opponent, who did have some significan endorsements from folks like Mike Huckabee, the cash advantage carrying him over.

AR-03:

GOP primary-Weird dynamics in this one.  Steve Womack (Rogers mayor) has been labeled as a RINO in the primary.  Keep in mind, this is a man who's so nutty on immigration George Bush said he was an extremist.  Cecile Bledsoe managed to inch past Gunner Delay to challenge Womack in the runoff.

Statewide offices:

Two statewide office races were particularly noteworthy, the Secretary of State race and the Land Commissioner's race.  In both races, young, more progressive minded candidate running on ideas (Pulaski county clerk Pat O'Brien and businessman L.J. Bryant respectively) both surged to face establishment candidates in the Dem runoff (current Land Comm. Mark Wilcox in the SoS race and state rep. Monty Davenport in the Land Commissioner's race).  This is a big deal, as these offices are usually where Arkansas sends old politicians to retire, as in the case of our former Land Commissioner, current Sec. of State, and future Auditor Charlie Daniels.  The fact that more issues oriented progressive policy wonks did so well last night is a huge deal for the state.

State legislature-Nothing dramatic on the state legislative front, except for maybe two things.  The large black turnout in Pulaski county lead to the defeat of state representative Richard Carroll, the former Green turned Democrat, at the hands of state senator Tracy Steele.  The saddest blow was this-Jay Barth, a great progressive running to be the first openly gay man elected to the state senate, was defeated after his opponent Linda Poindexter Chesterfield, ran an ad raising his sexual orientation and accusing him of racism for questioning her missed votes as a state rep.  (Chesterfield is black and said that doing so amounted to playing to the stereotype of blacks as lazy.)  For me, that was the lowest moment of the night.  However, there was one good moment as Fayetteville sent a true progressive to the legislature, Greg Leding.

Tags: , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Thanks for the analysis
Do you have any feeling of how things will shake out in runoffs and general elections?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


I do, but...
I'm scared that if I share them I'll jinx it!

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
You're no fun! :-P n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Lol!
I'll put it this way, with all the work we progressive activists have been putting into Arkansas at the moment, I'm feeling pretty good.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
God,
Democrats really need to recruit Sue Madison to run for Boozeman's seat. If it's Bledsoe she could possibly make it a race.  

[ Parent ]
A little late for that this time around.
But it's an idea we might put into the works down the line.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
I'd like to at least see her run statewide in 2012
for whatever is available then.

How is Martha Shoffner doing these days?


[ Parent ]
Shoffner's doing good.
She's proving to be a competent State Treasurer, having fixed a lot of the problems Gus Wingfield left us.  She keeps her head down mostly, but I like that she uses her office to promote the work of local artists and has made the office very accessible.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Obviously,
Progressives will support Causey in runoff. It will be close, IMHO - Wooldridge got 11% more then Causey in primary and better known, but, probably. most of those voting for Cook, Bryles and other candidates are closer to Causey then Wooldridge (of course - if they will bother ro vote in runoff at all)

But i still think Wills a better general election candidate then Elliott. As i wrote in another comment - she is, mostly, 1-county candidate. Pulaski will vote for ANY democratic candidate in November (it even voted for Obama), but other countise will vote for Wills in mich greater numbers then Elliott, who, by virtue being very liberal and black at the same time, may lose so much that even Pulaski will not save her.. And Wills, while more centrist then Elliott, isn't Wooldridge... This ine will be close too, IMHO

What about AR-03? Who is (at least slightly) more "sane" - Bledsoe or Womack? Democrats will not win here, so the question is quite valid IMHO...


House races
In AR-03, it's really hard to tell.  Womack is really hard anti-immigrant, but Bledsoe threw a hissy fit when she found out gay couples were being counted in the census.  George Bush said Womack was an extemist when he met him, and Mike Huckabee said Bledsoe was "a Shiite"!

In AR-01, there is a vigorous effort to stop Tim Wooldridge.  Cook supporters, like me, tend to be more liberal.  Can't say about Bryles' and the others' backers.  But I think the Cook voters are going to turn out on Chad Causey's side.  I know I will.  Wooldridge is just plain awful.

I want to say this about AR-02.  We at Blue Arkansas endorsed Joyce Elliott.  If Robbie Wills is the nominee, we will support him as well.  We didn't take that endorsement lightly-there was a field of five fine candidates to pick from after all, and we weighed the concerns about Senator Elliott's electability carefully.  (I even asked her about it point blank in our video interview.)  However, we decided that getting behind someone based on the color of their skin, whatever the rationale behind it, was something we felt was wrong on so many levels.  With her record and her views, we thought Senator Elliott was the best person to represent the district, and while we realize she has a tough road ahead, we're going to be with her every step of the way.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com


[ Parent ]
You know I thought Halter lost Pulaski
because of Obama and all the Lincoln endorsements he put out which would have helped Lincoln win those voters over.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think that was part of it, especially with African Americans.
But you don't get any more establishment in the Dem party here than in Pulaski county.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Do you know who won each congressional district?
I'm trying to eyeball it, and I would guess that Halter won AR-01 and AR-04, while Lincoln won AR-02 and AR-03.

Calculating the results
which is easy to do because no counties are chopped, it looks like Halter won only AR-04.

AR-01: Lincoln 45-42-13 (not really surprised; she represented this district in the House)
AR-02: Lincoln 48-41-11
AR-03: Lincoln 47-43-10
AR-04: Halter 44-40-16

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
There were some surprises there.
I was surprised at Lincoln's strength in AR-03 and, as said earlier, Pulaski county in AR-02.  Halter cleaned up everywhere else in that district.  I was really surprised how Halter cleaned up in the western part of Mike Ross's district, and the strength he showed in AR-01.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Well
I am not too surprised that she did well in AR-03, Wal-Mart country. They probably like her stances on HCR, EFCA, etc.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Didn't Wal-Mart come out in favor of HCR?
[ Parent ]
And, I think in AR-02
while Pulaski is Halter's home county, I think former governor Bill Clinton has far better name recognition there, so maybe that's why Lincoln cleaned up there.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
County results.
Lincoln won her native county (Phillips) 52-41 and the county Wal-Mart is headquartered in (Benton) with over 58%.

Halter won Bill Clinton's native county (Hempstead) 52-34.

According to Wikipedia, Lincoln lives in Little Rock, too, which may help explain her victory there.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


Lincoln doesn't live in Little Rock.
She lives in 2 million dollar mansion in Arlington Virginia.  Her "residency" in Helena is a condo that stays empty.

http://bluearkansasblog.com/?p...

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com


[ Parent ]
That's what Wikipedia says.
Born in Helena and has a residence in Little Rock.  I'll defer to you, though.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Have
you seen Scotty's numbers yet? I can't believe them.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox