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PA-Sen, PA-Gov: R2K Gives Sestak 2-Point Edge

by: Crisitunity

Fri May 14, 2010 at 7:25 PM EDT


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/10-12, likely voters, 3/8-10 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 45 (32)
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 43 (51)
Undecided: 12 (17)
(MoE: ±5%)

Joe Sestak (D): 40 (39)
Pat Toomey (R): 45 (42)
Undecided: 15 (19)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 41 (47)
Pat Toomey (R): 49 (41)
Undecided: 10 (12)
(MoE: ±4%)

Research 2000 is the most recent pollster to find a small edge for Joe Sestak over Arlen Specter in the May 18 Democratic Senate primary, and also to find Sestak overperforming Specter versus Toomey in the general election. They also find Sestak with by far the most upside of any of the three candidates: Specter's favorables are at 45/44 with 11% no opinion, Toomey's are 45/40 with 15% no opinion, and Sestak's are 39/26 with 35% no opinion.

Muhlenberg College for Allentown Morning Call (pdf) (5/10-13, likely voters, 5/9-12 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (44)
Joe Sestak (D): 43 (44)
Undecided: 12 (12)

Dan Onorato (D): 39 (39)
Anthony Williams (D): 14 (14)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 11 (11)
Jack Wagner (D): 11 (9)
Undecided: 25 (27)
(MoE: ±5%)

Muhlenberg finds things going the other direction, with a move from a tie in its daily tracker to a 2-point lead for Specter. They also find almost no movement in the gubernatorial primary, with Dan Onorato still in a dominant position.
Crisitunity :: PA-Sen, PA-Gov: R2K Gives Sestak 2-Point Edge
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PA-Sen, PA-Gov: R2K Gives Sestak 2-Point Edge | 18 comments
Sestak is up by 2 points, yet 31%(!) of Democratic primary voters
have no opinion (fav/unfav) of him.
A lot of anti-Arlen voting in the primary going on here. Voters just picking that other Dem choice even though they have no opinion him.
I cannot wait for tuesday
Ir's really unfortunate that my last final is on wednesday, because much of the time I would have devoted to studying for it will be going to watching live blogs.  

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Cram all weekend and Monday
Good luck!
[ Parent ]
I am jealous
I'm not done with finals until the middle of june!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Count your blessings, having finals any other week than this one would be so much better
Between the primaries Tuesday, all the polling leading up to it, and the last "episode" of Lost happening on Tuesday, finals for me could not come at a worse time.

To top it all off, my love of Super Smash Bros. has been rekindled out of the blue, which has pretty much turned my procrastination dial up to 11.

:'(

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Except
the Tuesday of my finals week is the primary for CA, NV, ME, MT, IA, NJ, SC, VA, both Dakotas, and the Arkansas runoff. FML :(

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I had finals the week of candidate qualifying.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
The last episode of Lost is on Sunday May 23
And my prediction: the new protector of the island will be

Hurley!

[ Parent ]
if it's okay with the mods
I say we continue this on an open thread, b/c clearly the protector will be... Locke, resurrected and ready to go!

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I agree about open thread
started one in there.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
the last episode of lost is on sunday the 23rd!
check online to be sure. No Lost fan should miss the last episode.  they better explain what widmores up to though.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Ah
Now see, I differentiate between episode and the finale for some reason.  I don't know why, I think it's my room mate whi did that initially.

This warrents more open thread type talk, so I started a comment in there

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Heh.
I took my last exam when I passed the PA Bar in July 1997.

Tuesday's going to be a fun night.  In addition to the top three here (incl. PA-12) (and AR-SEN and KY-SEN), we've got primaries in PA-3 (R), 4 (R), 6 (D), -8 (R) and others to watch.

[ Parent ]
I am Switching to Sestak
 Because poll after poll has showed Specter having a poorer chance of beating Toomey than Sestak. Originally, I disliked both of the candidates so I was supporting whoever had a better chance of beating Toomey. At first, that was Specter but now that has changed. Also, I have heard from people that Specter is a masterful negative campaigner. That may have been true but if he were so good at negative campaigning, he would not be losing his ground so much.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Philly suburbs
The suburbs will be the interesting flashpoint in this race, as usual for PA.  It's the one place where the party establishment isn't working for Specter.  Of course, all the party people in Sestak's district are supporting him, but my mother is on the committee in Montgomery County and she's been saying some very encouraging things.  Basically, Sestak had the votes to garner the county party's endorsement, but they didn't want to go against the state party, so they opted not to endorse anyone.  The sample ballots that they distribute at the polls will list both candidates names and the committee people are allowed to distribute literature for whomever they want.  Supposedly, most of them will be getting material from Sestak.  Sestak signs are everywhere out there, from what I saw last weekend.

Of course, the Philly suburbs were always Specter's base when he was a Republican, and those are the very Republicans who've been switching parties in droves through the 06 and 08 waves.  This could come down to a battle of long-time Democrats v. converted Republicans out there.  Not sure if there's enough former Republicans to turn this one, but if Sestak can perform as well as I think he will in the suburbs, it could carry him to the win.

Other Places
Sestak is also picking up votes in places that used to not matter, but in this race are swinging for him. I live in Elk County, but go to school in Cambria County (Both Dem-Leaning, but usually toss-ups. Both went for Obama by 2%). These areas used to be heavy for Specter, but now it seems are leaning towards Sestak. Dems in these areas were never sold on Specter.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
Elk County, for reals?
I spent a week in St Marys once for a case.  Love the eternal tap.
[ Parent ]
Yep
I'm from Kersey, right outside of St. Marys. That's what we're primarily known for, Straub Brewery. Hey, I'm not complaining.  

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
PA-Sen, PA-Gov: R2K Gives Sestak 2-Point Edge | 18 comments

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