Conway, Conway!

Really hoping he pulls it off. Then I think we'd have a shot at this.  

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by: Populista @ Wed May 12, 2010 at 22:16:51 PM UTC

The odd ideology cross-tabs noticed last time in the Democratic Primary seem to be gone.

Conservatives are 37-32 Mongiardo, a big change from 34-20 Conway in SurveyUSA's last poll.

Moderates are 44-42 Mongiardo.  Last time he led 40-32.

Liberals are 42-35 Conway.  Last time they were 42-37 Mongiardo.  

It appears that as more voters pay attention they are aligning more with the candidate who fits them ideologically.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Wed May 12, 2010 at 22:22:21 PM UTC

Hmm, alignments are interesting

Not really sure I trust this poll.  As was previosuly pointed out, it seems like voters have in large part changed their minds (Cons for Mongiardo and Libs for COnway) or they've changed how they identify themselves, both of which seem weird at this point in time.  

If I trusted just the toplines, it seems like late deciders are favoring Conway.  But I just don't really think I trust the change from other polling.  

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by: rdw72777 @ Wed May 12, 2010 at 22:27:35 PM UTC

My thought is that as voters found out more about the candidates they changed their alignment a bit

A few weeks ago, when few voters were paying attention, liberals may have been inclined to support Mongiardo since they had the most invested in beating Bunning in 2004.  Conservatives may have been for Conway since, as AG, he projected a law and order image.  Now that the primary's almost here and voters are tuning in the candidates' ideologies are better known.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Wed May 12, 2010 at 22:32:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I

can tell you that on the advertising front I keep seeing Mongiardo running adds blasting Cap and Trade and HCR, which helps him with most moderates to conservatives but hurts him with most liberals. That could have something to do with it. Or libs could just finally begin realizing that Dr. Dan is really conservative and Conway moderately liberal.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Wed May 12, 2010 at 22:39:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

for those concerned about the crosstabs

read ANY surveyusa poll and the cross tabs are completely off base.  yet they're usually very accurate.  there are polls with Brownback getting 35-60 percent of Hispanics, the youth vote, 20-40% of AA yet only having 53 approval.  when it comes to surveyusa, it's best to ignore the cross tabs and focus on the approval and end results.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Wed May 12, 2010 at 23:07:59 PM UTC

That probably...

has to do with the much larger margins of error for the subgroups.  Less people, bigger margins of error, and greater chance something is way off.

But put them all together as a whole, and you have a decent enough sample for just a 3% margin of error, so the toplines can be pretty accurate.  So it makes perfect statistical sense, even when it sounds so bizarre.  :-)

BTW, are you related to former Los Angeles City Controller Rick Tuttle?

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by: BruinKid @ Thu May 13, 2010 at 00:19:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

LOL at how many times that question has come up.

I think he said that the Tuttle came from former Vermont Republican Senate candidate Fred Tuttle.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Thu May 13, 2010 at 02:54:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wonder what'll happen to Grayson after this.

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by: SC @ Wed May 12, 2010 at 23:16:29 PM UTC

Serve

Serve out his term as SoS for now. He could run for Governor, but he has NO chance of beating Farmer in the primary. He seems like a good fit for LG. Or perhaps a future Congressional run. I think he lives in Rogers's district and he isn't young. I don't think he's done with politics yet.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Wed May 12, 2010 at 23:32:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]