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NC-Sen: Burr Leads Marshall by Only 1 Point, Cunningham by 5

by: James L.

Tue May 11, 2010 at 1:30 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (5/8-10, North Carolina voters, 4/8-11 in parens):

Elaine Marshall (D): 42 (37)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (43)
Undecided: 15 (20)

Cal Cunningham (D): 39 (35)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 44 (43)
Undecided: 17 (22)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Interesting numbers out of North Carolina, showing both Democrats getting a boost after the first round of their primary battle. Both Marshall and Cunningham are still severely unknown at this point, underscoring just how much of a meekly-funded campaign the first round of this primary was. 66% have no opinion of Cunningham and 56% regard Marshall with a blank expression.

If the winner of this runoff can quickly marshal together some resources, this could turn out to be a race well worth watching.
James L. :: NC-Sen: Burr Leads Marshall by Only 1 Point, Cunningham by 5
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NC-Sen: Burr Leads Marshall by Only 1 Point, Cunningham by 5 | 69 comments
A case where a primary battle is helpful?
Perhaps where both candidates are less well known, primary battles can only help name recognition?

In both cases, the polling suggests that the number of voters who would vote for Marshall or Cunningham over Burr is approximately double their favorability scores.

Yeah, I think that's right, and it's true in PA-Sen, too......
Rasmussen has NC-Sen tightening and also Sestak now in a dead heat with Toomey in PA-Sen, and of course PPP shows NC-Sen a dead heat.  I think that's the result of unknown candidates finally getting on the air statewide for the first time.

I hope and think it's NOT a "bounce" that will fade.  After all, these nominations are not yet decided, no one is running a victory lap having united the party.

But Sestak and Marshall, who I think will be our nominees in these races, will need to find a way to stay in the news for awhile after they win their respective nominations.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Perhaps the bounce is not yet solid
Just trying to explain the discrepancy between "I'll vote for that candidate" and "I have a favorable opinion of that candidate".

To me, it suggests that both Marshall and Cunningham have made a good first impression -

If that first impression sticks, I think we should see it in growing favorability ratings for both candidates.

As they move to the runoff, they'll have additional chances to make an impression on the electorate. So perhaps the fact that there will be a runoff is also a good thing.

But that's just all conjecture (though I think it's logically solid).

[ Parent ]
Yes, but that's the key...
How quickly they can marshall resources. Neither Marshall or Cunningham has been a stellar fundraiser, and they've both been benifiting from the primary contest.

I know, a lot of people are going to cite the same talking point: Marshall is in better shape than Kay Hagen at this stage in the cycle. I continue to remain skeptical. Burr will have a great deal more resources, North Carolina is still a relatively conservative state (that barely voted for Obama), and even if the economy improves I still think the Republicans will have the wind at their backs.

In general, I'm more pessimistic about these races in areas where Obama either lost or barely won, while I'm more optimistic about the races in places where he won handily, such as Nevada and Illinois.

And of course, I hope to be proven wrong on this assesment regarding North Carolina.  

I think NC-Sen is an anomaly worthy of more hope than you think......
Burr has had weak job approvals and strangely and consistently weak general election trial heat numbers the entire cycle.  He never really improved as the environment got better for his party.  Now he's having his worst numbers ever, even in Rasmussen which finally has him sub-50 and up only 8 on Marshall after showing Burr up by blowout margins in all previous polling (an anomaly contradicted by other pollsters).

Burr has been a weird case study, one I can't figure out.  I read after Dole lost that Burr was different, he was attentive to the state and didn't remain distant like Dole.  And like Dole, he's not otherwise disliked by people, he's no bomb-thrower, he doesn't have a "fireable offense" as Chuck Todd might put it.

And yet he's polled horribly, always well below 50 in PPP's polls and I think also by the right-wing Civitas.  And he's not led a named Democrat by more than 10 or so, either.

Given that the national environment hasn't registered in Burr's favor thus far, and I think it's getting better for us in a lot of places, this could be a real upset this November.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yes, but it feels like Marshall hasn't polled that well either
For a woman who has been elected to statewide office since the 1990's.

I think that's the crucial factor for me - not that Burr isnt weak, but his opponents don't look that strong. I'm very disappointed in Cunningham as I was excited about him before he entered the race, but his fundraising has been very disappointing.

I think this race, more than some of the others we mentioned, is going to be dependent on the national environment. I agree with what DC says below that it's definitely getting better for the Dems, but I think it nees to be a lot better for us to win this race, despite the current polls.

I should add I fully expect Marshall to be leading Burr in at least one or two polls after the primaries are over.  

[ Parent ]
I think you have to discount Marshall's statewide elected status because...
...North Carolina has a lot more elected statewide officials than most states.  In fact there are a DOZEN, including the 2 U.S. Senators, the Governor, and 9 more who comprise the "Council of State."  And 9 of the 12 are Democrats (Burr and the Commissioners of Labor and Agriculture are the 3 Repubs), so on the Democratic side there's not a lot of oxygen for a Secretary of State.  I lived in the state during my law school years, and was active in Democratic politics in those years, and trust me, it's hard to get oxygen in some of these statewide races.  I was there in 1992 when the state elected a black man statewide for the first time, Ralph Campbell, a Democrat, for state Auditor.  It should've been a big deal for a Southern state to elect a black man statewide, but Campbell got buried under the Presidential election, a U.S. Senate race, the Governor's race, the Lieutenant Governor's race...and so on.  I don't know how much of the state's black population even knew they were voting for a black man on that line on the ballot in November 1992.

On top of that, a Secretary of State rarely makes news in any state, North Carolina included.  Marshall got slightly more name recognition in 1996 than a candidate for that office normally gets simply because she was the Democrat who beat Republican nominee Richard Petty--yes, the former NASCAR star.  But that kind of "name recognition" is fleeting, as Marshall was just "the other guy."

So don't make too much of Marshall's low numbers.  Even after 4 terms, a lot of voters only vaguely recognize her name.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Fair enough
Thanks for the insight
[ Parent ]
Aha!
Someone actually has a good reason that makes sense for why Marshall seems to have such low name recognition.

Anyone know what the average number of elected statewide offices is per state? Some states seem to have a ton of them (TX & OK), and some states have some odd positions, too (Arizona elects a state Mines Inspector, TX has railroad commissioners).

But others don't have many (Alaska, for example)...and the states I know offhand are widely variable:

Kansas & Missouri have 6- Gov, LG, AG, SoS, Treas.  + Insurance Comm. for KS and Auditor for MO

Oklahoma has 11- Gov, LG, AG, Treas., Auditor, School Supe, Labor Comm., Ins. Comm. (<---ALL Democrats, btw), plus three Corporation Commissioners. (their SoS is no longer elected)

California has 8...or 12, depending on how you count - Gov, LG, AG, SoS, Treas., Controller, Ins. Comm., School Supe., plus four seats on the state tax board, the Board of Equalization.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Each BoE district represents 1/4 of the state.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
MN only has four + Two Senators
Gov/Lg on one ticket, AG, SoS, and Auditor.
[ Parent ]
The railroad commission is oddly-named
because it regulates the oil and gas industries. It used to regulate railroads, as the name suggests, but that power was taken away a few years ago.

Virginia has three -- Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General.

States with no downballot statewide electeds: Alaska, Hawaii (not counting the Lt. Governor elected on the same ticket), Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey (same as HI), Tennessee, and West Virginia.

[ Parent ]
I'm guessing that was the first time a black man won a race in NC
since Reconstruction, and probably not the first ever, but I stand to be corrected.

My impression is that this race is Lean-R. Not only spending on ads, direct mail, and GOTV will matter, but so would debates.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
You're probably right on point one, and I agree on point two......
Yes, pretty good bet NC might have had a black man (definitely not a black woman in that era whose chauvenism and racism combined would not have stomached that) elected statewide in the Reconstruction era.  I, too, don't know for a fact, but it's a reasonable guess.

And I don't dispute NC-Sen remains "lean R" and must be called that until we see multiple polls showing a virtual tossup.

But I'm thrilled that's where we are today against a Republican incumbent U.S. Senator in the South.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Women couldn't run for Federal office then
Women didn't have the right to vote in Federal elections until the 19th Amendment was adopted in 1920.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Would these resources
be cunningly marshalled together?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I've called 9-1-1 and reported you to the Bad Pun Cops. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Possibly our best pickup this cycle....
Hi guys, I have long enjoyed this site and wanted to finally join and post.  Jason from NH here.

With that out of the way... Does anyone else think that this could turn out be the best pick up this cycle?  It seems to me that so much attention has been placed on MO and OH that this race seems to be overlooked... and given how weak Burr is, this could be a nice consolation prize for our (probable) losses in ND and DE...  

Anyway, love the site and the discussions on here.

Jason

Looks like we have a shot
of winning and keeping this senate curse alive for another 6 years

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
[ Parent ]
Welcome to SSP!
It is possible, I think it depends on the candidate, and whether fundraising changes significantly after the primary is over.  Like others have mentioned, I am in disbelief how unknown Marshall is for being a statewide official for as long as she has.  
[ Parent ]
I still think NH can give a good chance over other states

Welcome
[ Parent ]
We're seeing better numbers in a LOT of places......
PPP now has NC-Sen a tossup.  Rasmussen says the same on OH-Sen and corrobates tightening in NC-Sen.  Rasmussen has the numbers flipped and Democrats clearly ahead in CT-Gov.  Rasmussen now also has Sestak in a dead heat with Toomey.  And those are just a few examples, there are plenty of others I've seen recently that show a clear trend in our favor in Senate and gubernatorial races.

It's obvious that slowly but surely, voters are starting to calm down and feel just a little bit better.  As long as the economy keeps getting better, and financial reform and any other serious legislative pursuits this spring and summer are accomplished, I think we're going to hold both chambers.  With smaller majorities for sure, and it will be harder to get stuff done in the 112th Congress, but we'll at least have stopped the bleeding be able to savor avoiding 1994.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still nervous, things could still turn against us yet again.  But numbers don't lie, and it's starting to get better.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Despite my skepticism about this particular race...
I in no way disagree with the above analysis
[ Parent ]
I'd put it at forth on our opportunities list.
Behind Ohio, Missouri, and New Hampshire.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'd probably put it third at this point...
Only because I've growing increasingly skeptical of New Hampshire and Paul Hodes. He's actually running behind Marshall's peformance in most of the polls.

On the other hand, Ohio and Missouri, definitely better opportunities. And I do wonder about Kentucky if Conaway can win and Paul is the Republican nominee.  

[ Parent ]
New Hampshire
The lean of the state plus the fact that Hodes has a lot of money (comparatively speaking) and doesn't have a primary to be beat up in and burn his resources makes me confident there.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Significant scandal has been beating
Avoyette lately, see how that changes her polling position. Either way it will likely force her to spend her remaining money to hold off Binnie and his big bankroll, which means despite Hodes poor fundraising he'll be a good million dollars ahead of her heading into the General.

Add to it that New Hampshire, for some unknown reason, is very hard to poll, and there is a lot of white noise from very cruddy local pollsters like UNH, who I simply don't even acknowledge anymore, even when they give a very favorable result to Democrats. The effect is that between these various pollsters, the last 3 cycles they've understated Democrats positions. Benson was expected to beat Lynch in 2004, and in 2006 both Hodes and Shea-Porter significantly outperformed their polling position, especially looking at the races from this point in the year. In fact Shea-Porter, was, in 2006, at this point of the race, an afterthought in the Democratic primary, much less the General Election and Hodes was down by double digits to Bass. The same thing in 08 with Porter at least, she ended up doing a good bit better on Election Day than in polling where she was narrowly ahead, and generally in the mid 40s.  

[ Parent ]
I don't knock the polling, Hodes is down for real......
Polling can have problems, and UNH has more problems than others, I don't question that.  But follow the "totality of polling" rule, and it's clear Hodes is down by a significant margin.

But you're right about great potential for a big change in dynamic.  The primary matters, and the fact it's late, in early September, helps us even more.  Of course, that can work both ways, as winning a primary can also raise a candidate's visibility and favorables, and actually improve her polling against an opposite-party opponent with no primary challenge to keep him in the news.  So Hodes can't just lay low and horde cash until the end, he needs to find ways to stay in the news across the state.

I don't write off NH by any stretch, but I think it's far from our best opportunity right now.  I think NC has quickly risen toward the top of the list.  Sometimes the better opportunities are those more lightly defended by the opposition, and I think that's what's happening here.  You mentioned Carol Shea-Porter, well there's a reason she won in 2006 out of the blue, while people like Chris Shays and Jim Gerlach survived against all odds.  This time, similarly, the Republicans knew all along that Senate races in NH and MO and OH would be tough, and they've been preparing.  But they weren't counting on a tough defense of NC, so it's sneaking up on them.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
One problem I think Hodes has
is that I never see his name anywhere.  Everytime there is a story on this site, it's about Ayotte.  Does the man ever get his name in the papers?  From when Ayotte entered the race, Hodes seems to just be silently fundraising and biding his time.  Ayotte does well because she's the only one whose been in the news, which is now becoming more of a negative for her.

And I obviously am only one person cant possibly read everything there is to read so correct me if Im wrong about Hodes not being in the news much.

[ Parent ]
It could almost be this race in reverse
The primary which has some potential to be competitive, is over on the GOP side and they are sucking up all the air.  And Hodes probably wont in as bad of a post-primary position as Burr will be; Burr's an incumbent and if he's doing this poorly now, it already shows immense weakness for him as an incumbent vs Hodes running for an open seat.

Hodes does already represent half the state, though.

[ Parent ]
You are right I see low support for Hodes

And I think this race can give a good senator for the democratic majority.
[ Parent ]
Problem is, competitive primary with NO body blows landed......
The late primary in September means the Rethugs aren't going all out yet to bludgeon each other.  They're waiting until summer when primary voters are more interested and paying more attention.  So right now Ayotte is getting attention for a competitive primary, without any major negative coverage.  So for her up to now, all attention is good attention.  This investigation of the A.G. office under her watch is still too new and vague for voters to hold it against her......hell, even I don't remember off the top of my head, as I sit here typing, what will be investigated, and I'm a diehard campaign junkie who pays attention to these things.

What Hodes needs is for Binnie to really find something against Ayotte that sticks.  If it works to defeat her in the primary, that's fine for us, we'll take our chances against an unknown rich dude in November.  If it doesn't take her out but damages her, that's good, too.  But if Ayotte keeps getting attention without anyone landing a blow, it's going to take a bigger improvement in the "political environment" than we can reasonably plan for in order for Hodes to get over the hump.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Just checked google news
for instances of Kelly Ayotte and Paul Hodes, and Ayotte has nearly 3x as many news items.
[ Parent ]
At present in terms of Senate arithmetic
I see the field as:

Ohio
Missouri
North Carolina
Kentucky
New Hampshire
Florida (even getting Crist, who would probably caucus with the majority party, would probably be an improvement for us)

On the other side of the leger, North Dakota's a complete writeoff, as is probably Delaware; I'm more and more inclined to put Arkansas in this category too, though I like Halter.

I'm actually fairly optimistic about defensive play in the other states (Nevada, Colorado, Illinois).  Nevada's the most problematic of those, but somehow, between Lowden's increasing derangement and Reid's millions, I can't help but think he'll spend his way to another term.

[ Parent ]
Oh, and I think Indiana's a probable loss too.
Though we've got a strong candidate; if the wind shifts enough and he plays his cards right, he could pull it out.
[ Parent ]
I think NC is a better shot than KY
It's not as Republican, as shown by the 2008 general election results and the composition of its Congressional Delegation.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Agree, and the difference between KY and NC is racial......
The white electorate in North Carolina isn't any less conservative than in Kentucky.  The 2008 exit poll results were virtually the same, Obama losing KY whites 63-36, and NC whites 64-35.  But the nonwhite electorate in North Carolina (28%) was almost twice as big as in Kentucky (15%), and that was the difference.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Well worth investing in
Money would be better spent here than on FL, NH, or KY. Not too mention the cash being thrown away trying to prop up/primary Lincoln.
A lot more bang for your buck in NH

[ Parent ]
I think this one is a better pickup opportunity
Burr is a weak incumbent. And Hodes has gained no ground on his GOP opponents.  
[ Parent ]
Has Hodes campaigned though?
This is still pretty much the raise money phase of the campaign while the summer is parade season, while campaign season starts after Labor Day.

He should start advertising himself a bit earlier so Ayotte doesnt define him; and then since he'll be ahead of the game, attack Ayotte right away upon leaving the primary, especially over this house investigation thing.  

[ Parent ]
See Steve Poizner
General polls are close to useless now.

If Hodes is non-toxic on September 1 with a mediocre amount of money, we should win.

This is especially true as Ayotte's stock is not going up.  The danger with previously not very well known people is they have unlimited growth potential, but Ayotte no longer has that.  She has her little scandal thingee, and so now is just as much damaged goods as any politician.

This far out any poll within 8 points or so just basically is a tossup.

[ Parent ]
Let's not jump to any premature conclusions about NH
As others have pointed out, the race may be changing there. And there haven't been any debates yet, as the Republicans haven't yet chosen their candidate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
A lot more bang for your buck in NH

[ Parent ]
I just feel like tossing this out there
but, this seat is cursed!!  
It is!
But then again, maybe they just really hate their Senators in North Carolina. Since 1968, only one person has been re-elected to the US Senate from North Carolina: Jesse Helms.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
That's what I started thinking too!
1. Burr is back to neck and neck against unknowns
2. PPP was pretty solid in NC 2008 IIRC.  
The curse is still in play!
[ Parent ]
Richard Nixon
cast a voodoo hex on Sam Ervine's chair.
[ Parent ]
NC is tough on incumbents, period
Look at how Perdue's numbers tanked right out of the gate.  

I too was disappointed in Cunningham's fundraising, but I think a lot of NC money is holding out for a nominee first.  That would make sense after all, why commit now and possibly waste the contribution?  What kind of 'payback' could Marshall or Cunnigham exact from someone holding out support?  Nothing that I can see.  

Once a nominee is choosen, i forsee a good fundraising quarter to follow, especially if it is Cunningham, since the DSCC is behind him.

As to whether NH or NC is a better target, I say it is pretty close, but I give the edge to NC.  NH is overdue for a pendelum swing back toward the GOP.  Plus, Hodes should be in much stronger shape, but he isn't.  I put NC third, (slightly) ahead of NH.  MO and OH being basically tied for 1-2.        

Political wire pointed out that the dems. are running better then
Kagen did at this point against Dole. Course there are different circumstances but that seemed like a small point for optimism. If we pick off NC, OH, NH, KY and MO then we might end up breaking even in the Senate.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
I still think we have a better shot at <i>gaining</i> seats than we're given credit for.
Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are prime opportunities.  Who knows what the fuck is happening in Florida but Meek definitely gives us a seat and Crist may.  Kentucky is still a possiblity.  Iowa is getting competitive.  Arizona will be if Hayworth wins (Eat that cat fud, suckers!).  

The only seat I'd see with any certainty is lost is North Dakota.  Add Arkansas to the list if Blanche wins the primary.  It's very possible that we could make a comeback in Indiana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Illinois, and Delaware.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
This is the smartest comment I've read here in a long time...
Let's be more optimistic people!

We're running competitive House and Senate races for the third straight cycle.

Do agree, though. ND is lost. DE may be a goner as well. Castle's age may play a factor, there, however.

We're running credible candidates in GA, NC and FL and we're gonna hold CO, NV, IN, and PA in addition to gaining OH, and MO.

I don't see why so many have been so bleak here for so long.

[ Parent ]
Why would someone vote against Castle based purely on his age?
Frankly, I hope no-one would be motivated by ageist prejudice. I guess some people are, but do you really think that's likely to be electorally significant? I don't.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Obviously not
But it makes a difference to how much and how hard he campaigns.
[ Parent ]
Might or might not
Age doesn't by itself make people unfit or tired. And it also might not matter much, anyway.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Agreed!
Not that Im too optimistic about this, but I dont think all is lost.  
[ Parent ]
I would honestly rank
Kentucky above New Hampshire, despite the latter being more favourable terrain for the Democratic Party generally.  The Republicans are poised to nominate Paul, who I think will prove very unsuited to the general election when it really gets going.
[ Parent ]
I think New Hampshire over Kentucky

And despite this poll, over North Carolina too.
[ Parent ]
Remember, this is a state that elected Bunning
I think you're quite wrong. Of course, we shall eventually see.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but they only barely elected Bunning.

[ Parent ]
Right, who is possibly clinically insane
QED.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Don't forget your bread and butter in GA
Michael Thurmond is a top tier candidate against a republican who has luke warm enthusiasm at best.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
He may be top-tier, but I'd like to see some decent polling
before considering that seat any closer than Likely-R.

Do you know if the candidates have agreed to debates?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Trust me, I didn't forget.
:p

But I agree with Pan's sentiments.  Until the race actually materializes, I'm not going to include it among Iowa, North Carolina, etc.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I forget
Who was the last incumbent to be re-elected in this seat?  I know this is the cursed seat, but this is probably the best shot its had of a re-lection in a long time.  And the Dem is still in it!

Crazy history in this seat.

The legendary Sam Ervin,
who held it from 1955 to 1975.  After that, it's been nothing but one-termers (and even some who die within the space of a term).
[ Parent ]
35 years
without a re-election win, that is astonishing.
[ Parent ]
There are a lot of mitigating circumstances
In 1974, Ervin retires and is replaced by Robert Morgan, a moderate-conservative Democrat.

1980:  Morgan is closely associated with Jimmy Carter.  Morgan loses a squeaker in a strong Republican year.

1986:  East commits suicide.  Broyhill is appointed as Senator.  Broyhill loses to a popular former Governor named Terry Sanford.

1992:  Sanford has a lot of health issues that were carefully exploited by the Republicans.  Lauch Faircloth, who was a Democrat until 1990, defeats Sanford in a relatively close election.

1998:  Lauch Faircloth proves to the NC electorate that he is at least as conservative as Jesse Helms.  Faircloth was a gaffe machine, and the comparison with John Edwards only made it worse.  Edwards was relatively young and campaigned as a moderate Democrat, while Faircloth tried to tie himself closer to Helms.  Edwards wins.

2004:  Edwards has his eyes on the White House and doesn't run for reelection.  The Dems nominate a weak retread (Erskine Bowles).  Although Bowles was leading the polls for most of the year, George W. Bush had coattails that pushed Richard Burr across the finish line.

I don't necessarily believe that this seat is "cursed".  If anything, this seat pretty much sums up NC in a nutshell.  While the Democrats have a strong advantage in voter registration, the Republicans have a slight advantage due to the fact that the electorate has been, in the past, somewhat moderate-conservative.  2008 was the first sign that the electorate had shifted somewhat away from the conservative side.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
this seat reminds me of the Indy Gov seat in '08
and the KY Senate seat this year.  A younger, more attractive and less well-known (and disliked) candidate - Schellinger, Cunningham, and Conway is running against a better known and generally more disliked Democrat (Long-Thompson, Marshall, and Mongiardo).

It is hard for the lesser known democrat to win the primary but it is impossible for the better known democrat to win the general.  These races are going to be hard to win and even if we get our best candidates, we'll have a hard time winning, but I will have a lot more fun watching this fall if we put our best feet forward.

NC-Sen: Burr Leads Marshall by Only 1 Point, Cunningham by 5 | 69 comments

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