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SSP Daily Digest: 5/11 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue May 11, 2010 at 8:06 AM EDT


  • KY-Sen: Wendell Ford, the Democrat who held this seat before retiring Sen. Jim Bunning, endorsed AG Jack Conway. Conway is running a TV ad touting the endorsement, but no word (sigh) on the size of the buy. Meanwhile, Rand Paul is sticking both thumbs in the eye of the Kentucky GOP establishment: He says he's not sure if he'll support Mitch McConnell as Republican Senate leader. Given that McConnell has done everything in his power to flush Paul down the toilet, this isn't so shocking, but it is extra-juicy.

  • NY-Sen-B, NY-14: The Working Families Party endorsed both Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Rep. Carolyn Maloney. NY-14 wannabe Reshma Saujani whinged about the "establishment endorsing the incumbent," which is pretty rich, given that she herself signed a letter last summer asking Maloney not to challenge Gillibrand. Not too surprising, though, given that Saujani claimed last week she hasn't "issue-tested or poll-tested" - even though she conducted a $50,000 focus group earlier this Spring.

  • MI-Gov, MI-12: Troy businessman David Kniffen's gubernatorial signature drive fell short, so he's decided instead to run against Rep. Sandy Levin in this D+12 district.

  • CA-36: Blue America PAC has thrown down a $13K independent expenditure on behalf of Marcy Winograd, who is challenging Dem Rep. Jane Harman in the primary.

  • FL-22: After attacking Marco Rubio for going ever-so-slightly wobbly on Arizona's new immigration law, Allen West has now turned his fire on Jeb Bush. Even if this guy somehow wins, he's going to have a hard time staying on anyone's good side.

  • HI-01: Another one of those polls with too many significant digits: An outfit I hadn't previously heard of, Aloha Vote (which is a subsidiary of a Mass. consulting shop called Merriman River Group), has Charles Djou at "39.5", with Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case at "25.5" apiece. Half of the sample had already voted, and among that group, Djou was at 45%.

  • IA-01: Some Dude Mike LaCoste is dropping out of the GOP primary less than a month before election day. A couple of Republicans remain in the race against Rep. Bruce Braley, but really, the GOP has wound up with stems and seeds here.

  • NC-08: Three Republicans who failed to make the runoff in the race to challenge Rep. Larry Kissell - Hal Jordan, Lou Huddleston, and Darrell Day - all endorsed rival Harold Johnson today, over crackpot freakazoid Tim D'Annunzio. What's more, Johnson is in DC today and tomorrow to meet with NRCC chief Pete Sessions and other key GOP honchos. Dems just have to hope that D'Annunzio, who's already plowed a million of his own into his campaign, keeps spending like an RNC official at a bondage club.

  • NY-01: A nice score for Rep. Tim Bishop: Bill Clinton is doing a $1000-a-head fundraiser for him in NYC on June 2nd.

  • NY-13: Though he's repeatedly denied his interest, GOP ex-Rep. Vito Fossella - best known for a drunken driving arrest and fathering a child with a woman other than his wife - is supposedly interested in making a comeback attempt. In other words, he's got perfect Republican values. Fossella would have to make a decision by next month, when nominating petitions must be circulated.

  • PA-12: Crikey - another quarter mil on paid media from the NRCC on this race. You can see the new TV ad, which hits Pelosi, here.

  • WI-07: It looks like Dems are quickly rallying around state Sen. Julie Lassa to fill retiring Rep. Dave Obey's considerable shoes. Lassa has held office since 1998, first as a state representative, then as a state senator since 2003. She would not have to give up her current office to run for Obey's seat. Meanwhile, Wausau attorney Christine Bremer says she won't run, while state Rep. Donna Siedel sounds like she's still considering it (albeit tepidly).
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    SSP Daily Digest: 5/11 (Morning Edition) | 65 comments
    WI-07 Anybody BUT Lassa
    Julie Lassa teamed up with the Republicans to bury the Jacki Rickert Medical Marijuana Act in the State Senate's Health Committee this spring. I'm actively seeking to recruit a candidate to take her on in the Primary.

    (The Committee's 4-3 Democrats. The Chair, Jon Erpenbach was our Senate sponsor. He decided not to call an official vote he was sure to lose without Lassa's support, after offering her the opportunity to amend the bill to her liking.)

    Wouldn't that make Lassa more electible?
    What's the polling w/r/t medical pot in rural WI?
    [ Parent ]
    75%, not recent, for the District.
    Dave Obey has been quite outspoken in support, and was responsible for a provision in last December's budget lifting a 1998 ban on the District of Columbia implementing its medical marijuana ballot initiative.

    The 7th was my best Congressional District running against Herb Kohl in the 2006 US Senate primary, with my best 3 counties. Save Lassa, every other Democratic legislator representing the district showed at least tepid support for the Jacki Rickert Medical Marijuana Act.  

    [ Parent ]
    Cool, I'd love to read a link
    It's good to hear that rural Midwest areas can be progressive too.

    How are Lassa's positions on other issues?

    [ Parent ]
    Polling links
    http://norml.org/index.cfm?Gro...

    Wisconsin
    70 percent of respondents supported "allowing seriously ill or terminally ill patients to use marijuana for medical purposes if supported by their physician."
    POLL: Scott Rasmussen Public Opinion Poll
    DATE: October 2002
    Sample size: 1000

    80 percent of respondents supported the Wisconsin state legislature "passing a law to allow seriously ill or terminally ill patients to use marijuana for medical purposes if supported by their physician."
    POLL: Chamberlain Research
    DATE: February 2002
    Sample Size: 600

    The 75% in the District came from the Chamberlain poll, I was privy to the internals back when, but can't find a link online.  

    [ Parent ]
    "Midwest'
    While IN the midwest, the District's culturally, demographically, and economically more akin to the Mountain West, minus Mormons.

    Timber's the largest industry, with the only smokestacks at the paper mills. Very few African Americans, the largest ethnic minorities are Native Americans (who've been voting in large numbers this dacade) and Hmong.

    When a State Constitution Amendment clarifying an individual right to Keep and Bear Arms was on the 1998 ballot, County majorities ranged from 68% to 92%. (This could hurt Lassa too, while not an out and out gungrabber, she's probably the weakest on firearms rights of the prospective candidates who've drawn mention in recent days.)

    [ Parent ]
    Lassa's positions are just fine on other issues
    I'm glad that she opposed the flawed "medical marijuana" bill.  It is an oxymoron, and would be a mess and a joke.  Full legalization, which I would support, or nothing.  

    She is a typical Democrat on every other issue and will be a good replacement for Obey.  I would hope to see other candidates get in the race as well, but I can't think of any that would be as impressive as Lassa.  

    [ Parent ]
    I'm guessing you don't have a medical condition
    which would have been covered under the bill.

    Do you have specific criticisms of the implementation, or simply oppose any medical bill?

    My top choices for the House seat, both of whom have made clear they're not in the game, Assembly reps Gary Sherman and Ann Hraychuck. At this point, I'm hoping to drag Frank Boyle out of retirement.

    [ Parent ]
    is that seat in danger?
    are you in the district? just curios(that would be a bad loss in my view)
    [ Parent ]
    Even before Obey had passed
    on running for re-election, there was an independent declared for the seat on a "legalize' platform, so voters pissed at Lassa for her stance will have an alternative. (I'm not impressed with Ken Driesen, won't be backing him, but if Lassa's the nominee, he'll still be a factor.)

    [ Parent ]
    Good!
    It's about time people get more active about supporting candidates who support reforming our Marijuana Laws. I really believe this could be a blockbuster game changing wedge issue down the road. I think if the CA ballot prop passes it will be a game changer for making this a real issue in politics. And it will be no longer possible for pols like Lassa to just knee jerk opposition to it.

    The analogy I would make is Marriage Equality. 15 years ago people who support it where on the fringe. Today it is almost extremist to oppose it. I think the same thing can happen with marijuana reform.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    And there are a lot more people who smoke pot
    Than there who are LGBT as well.  538 once had an interesting article on marijuana laws and how number of people admitting to smoking pot in the past week/month/year etc. had been going up each generation since the rise of the conservative movement in the 80's, which put a giant dip in the in between today's college agers and those who were in the hippy generation.
    [ Parent ]
    More
    The rural North Woods isn't so much conservative as libertarian. Nearly all of the 2004 ballots split between Feingold and Bush were cast in the 7th. Russ' votes against the PATRIOT ACT and Assault Weapons Ban worked synergistically.
    [ Parent ]
    I'm curious

    I'm curious about Julie Lassa's ancestries. Do you know something?

    They are some strong state senators from WI-07. I think the logical candidate can be R Decker. And I think he must run. His senate district is much more addapted to the WI-07 borders. R Jauch's district is more addapted too than J Lassa's district.

    I give less importance to open a state senate seat, because I think this is a race for win. With the right candidate I think local democrats have high chance of win this race. And this is enough important for run with the best.

    [ Parent ]
    I support legal medical weed, too
    But the issue is about # 6,843 on my list of priorities.

    Lassa seems like an excellent candidate.

    [ Parent ]
    The only other poll I recall from the
    Merriman River Group was one giving Scott Brown a 10-point lead in the MA-SEN special election about a week before the election.  Maybe a Republican lean.  Maybe not.  I assume HI-01 is gone, at least for 6 months.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    HI
    Hawaii loves their incumbents, If we lose this now, It is gone for a while.

    29/D/Male/NY-01
    [ Parent ]
    Oversimplified
    Incumbents are great when they deliver.  In the fall, with 1 Dem on the ballot vs 1 Repub, the Dem will win.  Akaka an Inyoue will support the Dem and will carry them to a win.

    Unless of course Lingle runs in November, then she could win maybe.  6 month incumbency means nothing.   Very silly argument.

    [ Parent ]
    A D+11 district is gone Tek?
    Really?  I would've expected no less from you.  

    Case and Hanabusa are going to combine for at least 60-65% of the vote in this election, and Djou is going to pick up 10-15% of that in November how?

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Two sets of history
    The only Democratic seat in the country with a D+10 or higher Cook PVI held by Republicans is Joe Cao's seat in New Orleans.  That took a spectacular set of circumstances and will likely revert after one cycle.

    Otoh, most seats in special elections do not flip.  Those that do flip have tended to stay flipped.  The only exception of late to that rule was LA-6 where Don Cazyayoux won the special but got a third party opponent in November.  The last one I found that immediately flipped back was CA-11 where Republican William Royer lost to Tom Lantos in 1980 after winning a special in 1979.  Ancient history, almost.

    Jill Long did not last very long.  Stephanie Herseth looks almost safe in a slightly worse district.

    I'd go with the national trend over the limited special data with fewer than 20 special flips in over 30 years.

    [ Parent ]
    What about NM-3?
    Bill Richardson was the member there and then he was appointed to a cabinet position, Bill Redmond won it for the Republicans and preceded to lose the next general to Udall.  
    [ Parent ]
    And HI-01.

    Democrats lost HI-01 in 1986 just after the same troubles until 1990.

    Obviously for dems can lose a D+11 is needed a lot of own mistakes, but we have the miskates here.

    The last time dems lost HI-01 for four years, and recover the district when the republican incumbent run for senate.

    [ Parent ]
    Possibly due to a very acrimonious primary
    If Case lost the primary he might refuse to endorse Hanabusa or vice versa. I wouldn't rule it out considering there is almost no love lost between the two of them. Either way, if the Dems don't regain the seat this November, they will get it in 2012 due to Obama's coattails. Anybody know how redistricting in Hawaii works?  
    [ Parent ]
    What About 1986?
    The special election then seems the most like the situation now, and that was a messy set of elections with turnover.

    And I also think it's hard to compare a D+D+R race to a D+R race.

    [ Parent ]
    With the Dem bench in HI
    I just don't see it. The HI Dem bench is too deep. Djou benefiting from a perfect storm of a jungle primary, a dysfunctional Dem party, and a lousy economy and he's still struggling to top 40%. He would also have to deal with Obama's coattails in 2012. Patsy Mink was twenty years ago.
    [ Parent ]
    Speaking of the Democratic bench
    What are the chances that some other candidate runs and wins the primaries for the full term? I don't know much about Hawaii politics, but perhaps voters may be sick of the current acrimony and prefer a different candidate.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Eh Hawaii has two loves
    Democrats and Incumbents. Even though GWB was the Incumbent president it still came around for Kerry (by a much closer 54-45) but even the 1st district gave Kerry 53% I have a lot of trouble believing a Republican could entrench themselves there. And if he somehow did survive in 2010 he's have to go on the ballot again in 2012 when Obama will be at the top of the ticket and he's bound to get around 70% of the vote in the CD. But really Republicans aren't good at winning triditionally democratic districts so i'm not worried.  

    CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
    [ Parent ]
    Yes, just like Louisiana
    where Congressman Cazayoux is now in the middle of his first full term.
    [ Parent ]
    "It is gone for a while"... yeah, till January.
    Sheesh.
    [ Parent ]
    Paul will fold
    Of course he'll support McConnell.  If the Repubs make gains in the Senate this Novemebr (a certainty really) then McConnell will not be seriously challenged.  Paul will of course fall into line/fold like a lawn chair/insert your own euphemisms here lol.
    disagree
    if he is anything like his pops, he won't be backing down(hell, he might run for repub leader himself)
    [ Parent ]
    Much easier
    ...to be a renegade in the house than in the Senate.  Also easier to do it when only representing a sliver of people in a house seat than a whole state where you share Senator role with the Minority leader.

    Maybe he abstains.  But I bet he supports just about everything McConnell supports after that.  Court appointments, trying to overturn healthcare, tax cuts, etc.  

    [ Parent ]
    WI-07
    State Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker will not run for Obey's seat:

    http://www.wausaudailyherald.c...

    Same for State Senator Pat Kreitlow, and he's endorsing Lassa:

    http://wispolitics.com/index.I...


    Both have tough seats to hold
    They're up for re-election, and are two of the four or five top GOP targets.  
    [ Parent ]
    Special Elections Today in Georgia
    Voters today are voting to fill the vacant seats in GA-09, State Senate Districts 42 and 49, and State House District 12.  Republicans hold all of these but SD-42.  I would be absolutely shocked to see any of these seats flip.  In fact, we're not contesting SD-49 (although there is a Libertarian running) and they're not contesting SD-42 (although there is a Libertarian and an independent running).

    Of special note is SD-42, where Jimmy Carter's grandson is running.  Either Democrat in that race sounds fine.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    CARTER
    is amy carter still in the state lege? do you know? also; jimmy was from SW GA, is that the same senate district that jimmy represented when he was a state senator?(or is it metro ATL?)
    [ Parent ]
    Yes and No
    Amy Carter is still in the State House.

    SS42 is a typical liberal metro Atlanta seat. It contains parts of DeKalb County.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm pretty sure that's a different Amy Carter.
    But the State Rep. Amy Carter is still there and unopposed this year.

    SD-42 is in Metro Atlanta (West-Central Dekalb County) and includes the DeKalb County portions of Atlanta, along with Decatur, and the Emory University campus (I think).  It's like 80% Democratic and heavily Jewish.  

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    i am sorry
    i think you might be right about this being two different amy's; my bad(it is funny though because i think the amy that still is in the state lege is from valdosta((though it is south GA, it is conceivable that it would be the same amy from the white house);sorry
    [ Parent ]
    Beau Biden
    Anyone have any updates on Beau Biden.  Heard he's in the hospital but news outlets haven't said why.  Speculation is neurological but I don't know of any such past history with him.  
    WENDELL FORD
    hope he helps out conway; i think conway can take out rand paul BUT i am just not sold on mongiardo; that seat will be tough for ANY democrat to win in this cycle
    Again with the caps lock, man?
    I mean, really?

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
    [ Parent ]
    Dude
    Stop it!  You seem to be a good contributor, but capital letters are like crack to you.  

    It's a big pet peeve for the mods here...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    LOL, maybe there's a 10-step program for caps-lock addicts somewhere...

    [ Parent ]
    Dude...
    stop with the caps lock.  You've already been warned by the mods.

    And I'd still like an explanation as to why you think general election matchups don't matter in the PA-Sen race.

    [ Parent ]
    You need to stop the Caps Lock
    It's equivalent to shouting. This is your last warning.
    [ Parent ]
    4 Repubs will still be on ballot in IA-01 primary
    Two have dropped out since filing for the seat, but their names will stay on the June 8 ballot. I don't suppose that will matter much, because Ben Lange seems headed to win the primary and lose big to Bruce Braley.
    Amazing how quickly Braley became entrenched
    Although he's a good rep - still, this was Jim Nussle's old district.  
    [ Parent ]
    Has this ever happened?
    Here in Georgia, State Representative Jay Shaw (D) announced he would not seek re-election after he was named to the state transportation board.  His son Jason entered the race very soon after.  However, Jason Shaw is running as a Republican!

    It's not unheard of for a politican to be succeeded by a family member.  See, for example, Doris Matsui and Jean Carnahan replacing their husbands or Duncan Hunter, Jr. replacing his father.  But has there ever been a case before where the succeeding relative was from the other party?


    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    Yup, Walter Jones, Jr (NC-03)
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W...

    An executive with his family's business supply company, Jones was elected as a Democrat to the North Carolina House of Representatives in 1983 and served for five terms, until 1992. He was known in the North Carolina House for his advocacy of campaign finance reform and lobbying reform.[2] Shortly after his father died, Jones unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for his father's seat in the 103rd United States Congress of 1992 (losing to Eva Clayton in a primary runoff).

    He switched parties and won in the 3rd District in the 1994 Republican takeover of Congress, defeating incumbent Democrat Martin Lancaster.

    Jones, Sr. served as a D until '92. (I used to live in NC-03.)

    [ Parent ]
    But there was a gap there.
    Jason Shaw is running immediately after.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
    [ Parent ]
    Your chronology (or Wiki's) is a little off
    Jones Sr. retired in '92 for health reasons. Eva Clayton beat Jones Jr. in the June runoff to replace him--in a radically redrawn district. Jones Sr. died in September. In November, Clayton won both a full term in the new district and a simultaneous special election to replace Jones Sr. in the old district.
    [ Parent ]
    3 poll will show Sestak ahead of Specter
    Snarlin' Arlen's attacks are backfiring as people begin to realize Specter is out only for Specter. Franklin & Marshall College will release a poll tomorrow showing the similar results of a 5 point lead for Sestak against Specter. It is past time to retire Arlen Specter. Obama backed the wrong candidate.  
    I think Sestak winning is good for the Democrats chances...
    of holding this seat, and I do respect Sestak more than Specter in many ways. But I can also see why the White House and the Penn Dem establishment backed Specter so hard. Can anyone imagine another big party switch like this in the near term?

    If Crist loses in the fall, I bet you never see a single Republican back another important legislative priority the rest of Obama's presidency.  

    [ Parent ]
    Easy
    They wanted Specter's vote on things.  So they threw their weight behind him.  They wanted get Specter's votes on Court appointments, Health Care, Unemployment extensions, etc. and hopefully mroe to come.

    They also have perfect cover if Specter loses.  If Specter endorses Sestak right away, Obama can do the same and if Obama campaigns for Sestak, I think he wins by a ton.

    If Specter doesn't endorse Sestak right away, the White House can call Specter a turncoat/antagonist who isn't loyal to his party (Democrat) and they can endorse Sestak and have lost no real capital.  It won't be ahrd for the turncoat/antagonist label to stick lol.

    To me they did what they had to with little risk.  Some will say it was dumb to back Specter, but what did the Penn Democrats and the White House lose by doing so?  To me, nothing :-)

    [ Parent ]
    Great analysis!

    [ Parent ]
    I could imagine Snowe turning I
    and caucusing with the Democrats. She might have an easier path to reelection that way, and Maine has one of the best records in the country of electing Independents to high positions, such as Governor. If things get really extreme, I could even imagine the same thing happening with Collins, but she is more conservative than Snowe.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Obama for Specter
    It will be interesting to see that F&M poll. I would mention that the Muhlenberg tracker has Sestak`s lead back down to 4 points. Probably meaningless, but may shows his momentum is slowing.

    More importantly, I think this ad has the possibility to be a very effective counter to Sestak's 'strong ally' ad. Specter may just succeed at convincing people that his (Specter's) self-interest is aligned with the interests of Pennsylvanians, not antithetical to it. Should be an exciting week!

    [ Parent ]
    that ad is nearly identical to the one Arlen ran in 2004 with Bush
    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    And I think Sestak anticipated it.  His ad showing Bush praising him with similar lauding and linking Specter to Bush counters the Specter ad nicely.  

    I live in Philly, the heart of Democrats in PA, and I must say there isn't a lot of buzz about either Sestak or Specter here.  I get phone robo-calls every day from Anthony Williams (Gov), Ingargiola (I think he's runnign for state Sen) and a few others, but nothing yet from Specter or Sestak.

    And the main focus in PA on the news seems more and more on the governors race.  But maybe I'm just catching select clips/blurbs.  Just something I've noticed in the last week or so.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama already got what he wanted
    From Specter. He is just following through. I doubt he really cares who wins the seat in November so long as it isn't Toomey.
    [ Parent ]
    CA-36
    I've lost a lot of respect for Winograd after the stunt she and her supporters pulled at our state convention a few weeks ago, staging that floor fight and acting all around like whiny sore losers.  The feeling I got after talking to several Bruin Democrats who were there was that while before that, they may have been neutral or even cheering on Marcy, after that display, they were completely turned off by the spectacle.

    Given the adage that one's supporters do reflect upon the candidate, I just don't think Winograd's that serious of a candidate.  Not to say she doesn't have the money or the chance to win, but gawd, the sore loser smell coming from them was overpowering.  The actual delegates from CA-36 voted overwhelmingly to endorse Harman over Winograd; it wasn't even close.  Harman easily got the 60% she needed for the official state party endorsement.  (And the complaints I've seen that those delegates were hand-picked by Harman is bullshit.  About 2/3s of the delegates are elected by regular ol' Democrats living there; had Winograd tried persuading them, no way Harman gets a whopping 86% of the vote.)

    So then Winograd challenges it anyway, to force the ENTIRE state delegation to vote on CA-36 (i.e., to open it up to people who know much less about the district), and she STILL lost by a wide margin, and then complained the vote was stolen from her, or that it wasn't counted properly, and any other conspiracy designed to keep her down.  The challenge reminded me of Norm Coleman suing to keep Franken out of the Senate seat, all the way to the state Supreme Court.

    And yes, I expect I'll be attacked for daring to speak ill of Winograd or her supporters.

    I think the real question
    is whether Winograd, herself, is, in your opinion, better on the issues. That is, unless you actually consider her incompetent. And if you do, why? I would not let some obnoxious supporters confuse the issue. That's a Democratic district, so the primary determines the winner of the election.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    I think I've posted before about how I'm a little concered about Ron Klein's reelection chances
    The silver lining seems to be that if Allen West does win, he'll be so amazingly Bill Sali-like that everyone in the district will probably hate him within two years.

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    IA-Gov GOP primary
    Long-shot candidate Rod Roberts is up on tv in a few cities. Terry Branstad has been advertising in all the major Iowa markets for more than a month. Bob Vander Plaats hasn't run any tv or radio ads yet that I am aware of.

    The primary is on June 8, but early voting has already begun.

    SSP Daily Digest: 5/11 (Morning Edition) | 65 comments

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