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SSP Daily Digest: 5/5 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Wed May 05, 2010 at 4:48 PM EDT


FL-Sen: With drillin' and spillin' suddenly on everyone's minds these days, the Florida legislature's Dems are trying to force newly-minted independent Charlie Crist's hand on the drilling issue. They plan to ask Crist to call a special session to take up a constitutional amendment on banning drilling close to Florida's shoreline. With Crist having taken pretty much every possible position on drilling already, who knows what he'll do... obviously, he's flexible. Meanwhile, with Crist out of the GOP picture, Jeb Bush is now free to publicly out himself as the Marco Rubio supporter that anyone with a pulse has known he's been along.

KS-Sen: Although it's a little late in the game, the Dems actually landed a bona fide state legislator to run for Senate (one of their biggest recruiting gaps this cycle). State Sen. David Haley of Kansas City, who'd been rumored to be interested many months ago, now says he'll take the plunge, giving the Dems at least something of an upgrade from retired newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger. Haley hasn't fared well in his last couple attempts at a promotion, though; he lost both the 2002 and 2006 SoS races. Meanwhile, over on the GOP side, Rep. Todd Tiahrt has settled into an underdog position against Rep. Jerry Moran, but he's trying to rally the social conservative grassroots. Religious right leader James Dobson (last seen pulling a weird switcheroo in the Kentucky GOP primary) cut a radio ad on Tiahrt's behalf.

NY-Sen-B: Could the GOP manage to coax one more second-tier contender into the Republican field to go against Kirsten Gillibrand? Orange County Executive Ed Diana is reportedly "gearing up" to challenge Gillibrand, although he hasn't made a final decision. Diana would have at least one leg up over David Malpass, Bruce Blakeman, and Joe DioGuardi: he'd be the only one to currently hold elective office (although Orange County, in the Hudson Valley, makes up less than 2% of New York's population).

PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Today's daily hit from the Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracker: Arlen Specter has a slightly bigger lead over Joe Sestak, at 48-40. Dan Onorato is at 34 in the governor's primary, followed by Joe Hoeffel at 11, Anthony Williams at 9, and Jack Wagner at 8.

WI-Sen: As was generally expected, Oshkosh businessman Ron Johnson seems to be ready to launch his Senate bid on the Republican side, with an official announcement in the foreseeable future. Johnson apparently is on good terms with the teabagger community, unlike other GOP candidates Dick Leinenkugel (a veteran of the Jim Doyle administration and thus an impure collaborationist) and Terrence Wall.

AL-Gov: Here's a smackdown for Rep. Artur Davis: the United Mine Workers, which had previously done a joint endorsement of Davis and Ron Sparks, pulled its Davis endorsement and will endorse Sparks solely. (Sparks also got the UAW's endorsement last week.) Davis did manage to score one other endorsement, though, from equal pay activist Lilly Ledbetter (whose namesake bill is one of the few pieces of marquee Democratic legislation that Davis actually voted for this cycle).

FL-Gov: Rick Scott, the former health insurance exec and professional anti-HCR astroturfer who just got into the GOP gubernatorial primary, is bringing a whole lot of his own money with him. AG and presumptive nominee Bill McCollum may need to start looking back over his shoulder: Scott has either bought or reserved $4.7 million in airtime for the coming months. That's about as much money as McCollum has raised since entering the race.

NY-Gov: The RGA left Steve Levy hanging, in a big way. Levy had (laughably) claimed last week that the RGA had promised him $8 to $10 million for his gubernatorial run as an incentive to get into the race and save the GOP from the specter of Rick Lazio. RGA chair Haley Barbour (not publicly, through back channels) said, um, no: the RGA is neutral in the primary, and will spend in that race only if it looks close down the home stretch. With state chair Ed Cox having put his credibility on the line to bring in ex-Dem Levy (who's sucking in both GOP primary and general election polls), the NYT is reporting that's created something of a "war" within the state party, to the extent that Michael Steele had to head to New York for a recent emergency intervention with Cox. When Michael Steele is suddenly the voice of reason, you know you're doing it wrong.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/5 (Afternoon Edition)
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Hanbusa to drop out?!?!
http://www.honoluluadvertiser....
HOW do Democrats ALWAYS manage to solve these issues??

Well, its not just the Dems
I point you to NY-23.  However, the GOP didn't resolve anything since Dede supported the Democratic candidate.

Djou still has a chance.  Hanbusa might not back Case enthusiastically.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Hanabusa
and who knows. even if she does drop out, two things to keep in mind:
1) many votes have already been cast.
2) the perception that Hanabusa was forced out won't sit well with many of her supporters.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yeah
A large majority were expected to be mailed within 3 days from Saturday, so yesterday most should have been mailed back. Plus, even if she does drop out, Case has already been attacked by her. Her supporters may be upset enough with the Dem establishment pushing her out that they think Djou for a few months is better than Case for a few years. Also, with Djou huge money advantage over Case, he can go negative and dominate the airwaves with positive and negative ads.

[ Parent ]
If Hanbusa drops out,
I think this is good for Democrats because it ensures they win this special and stops the media from spinning this race as Democrats in crisis

[ Parent ]
Frankly, good news if true


[ Parent ]
I hope
if Hanabusa drops out, she is appropriately rewarded by President Obama.

(Proviso - Since ballots are already mailed out, there is no certainty about the effect. If Djou does win in those circumstances in a "2-way," it'll be more difficult to call HI-01 a fluke.)

It makes it possible for Ds to win both HI-01 and PA-12, denying Rs any sort of motivational / fundraising edge that they may have gotten by winning both seats.

PA-12 is still dicey too. But if we hold one or both seats, I think the economic recovery can take hold in the minds of the voters - and we have a chance to hold losses in the House to 20-25 seats.

And I won't end up sounding like Tek in a month.


[ Parent ]
I
think she would be a good LG, which could in fact be her stepping stone up to the Senate a few years down the road. Does the nominee pick the running mate, or is there a separate primary for LG?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Or
She could stay in the Senate. Akaka might have promised her he'd retire and keep the primary field clear for her in 2012.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be surprised
to see the same thing happen late in the Florida race if Crist is tied with Rubio and Meek is far behind. Crist makes a backroom gurantee to work with Dems, and Meek moves to support him and gets a juicy federal appointment.  

[ Parent ]
She's not dropping out
She just announced it.

[ Parent ]
In other Hawaii news, it's worth noting Gov. Lingle's approval rating have dropped
http://www.honoluluadvertiser....

Her rating is now 40%-53%.  Not impossible to recover but it makes a future Senate campaign for her less likely.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Her term isn't over
That also isn't really that abysmal, she could definitely comeback from that, especially since that is her lowest rating ever.  

[ Parent ]
I
very well could be wrong but I swear I remember seeing a poll having it at 38 a bit ago. I tried looking it up and couldn't find it, so maybe I'm thinking of something else. Obviously not a big deal anyway. As for her popularity I doubt she will be able to gain back support from the Democrats, which have been essential to her electoral success, and would be needed for a future Senate run. I mean she would not have been elected and re-elected Governor without a lot of Democratic support, and she seems to have burnt all of her bridges with Democrats if you ask me.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Why do you doubt she could gain back Democratic support?
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Granted
that I'm not from Hawaii, but from what I can tell the teacher thing has really pissed them off royaly.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I'm sorry; I forget what happened
Is she yet another governor trying to break the teachers' union, essentially?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure she is another governor
with a giant budget deficit and few other options.  

[ Parent ]
There are always other options.
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Is Ron Sparks....
...Growing his mustache back or is that just an older picture? Dammit--it's an older picture. I totally got my hopes up.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Just got polled by Rasmussen!
They asked about the Indiana Senate race (they didn't poll the Libertarian candidate, even though they have one now), Obama, plus a bunch of somewhat loaded questions about repealing health care, Arizona's immigration law, the energy bill, and whether it's good to be the "party of No."  (Stupidest question: "One political party is often referred to as the Party of No.  Which party is often referred to as the Party of No?")  All the loaded stuff came after the electoral questions, though.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

Brunner
Had this to say about the election:

I congratulate Lt. Gov. Fisher, our nominee for the U.S. Senate, and I join all Democrats in Ohio in looking forward to a vigorous campaign in the fall.

http://www.jenniferbrunner.com...

Not an endorsement, but it could be worse. I think Brunner supporters will line up behind Fisher the same way Fisher supporters would have lined up behind Brunner.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Hey Sarah,
How's that drill-baby-drill thing workin' out for ya?

UK-PM predictions - 5/6 Election
Two sources -
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/b...
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

In Nate's words, the projection models have led to an interesting "Nerdfight" with at least four rounds.

I'll guess

Conservative: 299
Labour      : 220
LibDem      : 101

(If I get frustrated with the chapter I'm trying to write, I might do a diary on this tomorrow...)



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