Good news!

Now Conway needs to spend some major cash to take the lead from Mongiardo.  

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by: fitchfan28 @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 17:51:21 PM UTC

the poll was over Derby Day

I find this comment from the related thread to be quite cogent http://www.swingstateproject.c...

In essence, if the commenter is correct, this PPP poll way undercounted Louisville, which also happens to be Conway's base.

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by: tietack @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 17:54:03 PM UTC

Do you think Conway got some positive publicity from the Derby?

Considering he and his father had a horse which competed in the race?

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by: fitchfan28 @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 17:57:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't follow the ponies

so I don't know the answer to that question.

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by: tietack @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 18:31:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meh..

Probably a little bit, but I don't think it will affect the race too much though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 20:56:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've learned to be skeptical of arguments like this......

This sounds a lot like "Democrats get undercounted on weekends because young people are out partying," or so many other hypotheses that get conjured up.

Really, it's enormously speculative to say the Derby suppresses Democratic response rates.  How many of the citizenry are really there, really?  And the race is daytime, correct, so evening calls should be unaffected?  Does the black community have the same interest in horse racing generally, or at least the Derby in particular, as the white community (we still have a significantly socially segregated society, you know)?

Really, if you read analyses and links on places like Pollster.com, you find there's never any empirical support for these types of propositions, they're purely speculative.  And for me, even intuitive support is lacking......everyone has lives, everyone has a reason to be out and about on a beautiful Saturday, and no reason to think Democrats in particular aren't home to answer the phone.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 19:06:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Check the update

If the internal Conway poll is at all credible (and sure, that's a BIG if,)

Then it makes sense that the difference in the results is because of the Derby on May 1.

The PPP poll was taken over May 1-2 - which shows M over C 36-27.

The Berenson (sp) group poll was taken over May 2-4, showing C over M 32-28.

That's an 8 point difference in the Conway rating based on an essentially one day difference in polling timeframe.

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by: tietack @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 19:13:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What "makes sense" is not the Derby, but methodological differences...

...and mere statistical noise, which also can't be ruled out.

Most of the time, the difference in results between two different polls of the same race taken at roughly the same time is simply differences in polling methodology, not extraneous events in life skewing the sample.

It's established empirically that methodlogical differences explain different results.

It's never been established that life events skew results.

Regarding PPP in particular, do we even know that PPP polls during the day, when the Derby would have taken place?  I'm pretty sure Rasmussen polls only in the evenings, even on weekends.  It might be that all pollsters do only evening calls.  I've gotten telephone survey calls, political and otherwise, a bunch of times over the years, and they've always been in the evenings.

I bet even if you called people on Christmas Eve or the evening of the Superbowl, it wouldn't skew the results.  A pollster will get a lot more no-answers and hang-ups those nights, and will have to make a lot more calls to compensate and reach the desired sample size, but I bet the results aren't otherwise skewed in any direction.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 22:34:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just throwing this out there

PPP's notorious NY-23 poll was taken on Halloween.
Not the worst thing about that poll by far.
Just food for thought.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Thu May 06, 2010 at 00:40:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That really proves my point, Halloween is a TOTAL NON-issue......

I remember the strained argument from back then that "moms are out trick-or-treating with their kids, dads are at home handing out candy and can answer the phone."  I think it was coupled with "young voters who favor Democrats are out partying!"

Again, these were purely notional arguments with no empirical support, and frankly to me not even intuitive support.

Not everyone does something for Halloween...more people than you think do nothing.  Not every family has the mom out with the kids and the dad at home.  Most houses DO NOT HAVE a trick-or-treating-age kid.  When you consider that a poll surveys a random sample of homes containing voting-age adults, it's awful hard to argue that these little Halloween-night twists amount to anything statistically significant.

There were soooooo many problems with the NY-23 polling that the Halloween argument just doesn't hold any water.

As of late I've decided the lesson I take away from NY-23 is the same lesson from the NH-Dem Presidential primary:  late-breaking developments make an election completely unpredictable, even for the best polling methodology.  All the NH-Dem primary polling showed a huge Obama bounce after Iowa, but it never showed up on primary night, with a result that instead matched what polling said BEFORE the Iowa Caucuses.  Similarly, Scozzafava dropping out threw everything out of whack, making the outcome impossible to predict.  It might have been that the 3-way polling beforehand also was off anyway, but at least private Democratic polling whose numbers were never released (but reported by Chris Cilliza on his "The Fix" WaPo blog) showed Owens with momentum and beating back Hoffman the last week before DeDe dropped out, and that momentum seemed confirmed in the election, even if never revealed by PPP or Siena.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu May 06, 2010 at 00:55:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think there's sufficient proof either way

It sounds like an excellent topic for a Ph.D. thesis.

However, the comparison of the PPP and Beneneson polls, one day apart, at least appears to be a good comparison, with Derby day being the only variable.

And different methodologies should not matter --IF-- both methodologies are sound. (For me, that is the unknown with both polls, as I have not studied the methodologies of either.) Statistics should take care of the rest.

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by: tietack @ Thu May 06, 2010 at 14:26:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

I live in Southern Indiana and I can tell you that while everyone doesn't go to the Derby most everyone watches it. Most people go to a Derby Day Party or a sports bar. I don't know if the black community has the same interest, but it seems like they would though. I don't know if it would affect the poll, but the Derby is definitely a huge deal around here. I mean we have a month long festival called Pegasus just leading up to it. When people think of Louisville, they immediately think of the Derby. So I wouldn't be surprised if it affected the poll.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 20:54:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The funny thing is

Partisans on BOTH sides of the aisle have got to be frustrated by Kentuckians' primary preferences.  Grayson is clearly the better candidate on the republican side, and Conway the better candidate for the democrats.  Yet the other candidate has been winning almost wire to wire in this contest.  

Again, the only way in which we pick up KY is if Conway faces Paul.  If Grayson wins the GOP primary, or if Mongiardo wins the DEM primary, it's all but in the bag for Team Red.  I suppose maybe, maybe Grayson runs a poor campaign and Conway could beat him, but in this environment that's pretty unlikely.  Mongiardo is a non-starter among base democrats, who won't turn out for him in big numbers.  Judging how these primaries are going so far, with progressive, state-centered/outsiderish democrats outperforming their poll numbers (primaries like NC-8, NC-11, OH-Sen), I don't doubt that Conway could win this one.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 18:59:17 PM UTC

We have extra reason to gripe.

Not only is Conway better electorally, but he's a better Democrat.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 19:46:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Let us hope...

his internal polling is more accurate than PPP's polling.

Gawd, who are all the Kentucky Democrats who still support Mongiardo?  Oh... yeah... the same ones who voted for McCain, probably.  (Given registration numbers, a LOT of KY Dems had to have done that.)

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by: BruinKid @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 21:31:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I can't emphasize enough

that I will be totally ignoring this race if Dr. Dan wins the primary.  

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by: andgarden @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 19:32:41 PM UTC

I think we are all

very familiar with your position by now.

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by: James L. @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 19:47:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry

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by: andgarden @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 19:55:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Time to look at the big picture

I'm not totally convinced that Paul will win the GOP nomination.  The primary is fastly approaching, but a lot can happen in a short period of time.  That being said, I hope Paul squeaks it out because the Dems will have a better chance of winning.

On the Democratic side, Conway or Dr. Dan could win the nomination.  I'd prefer Conway because (a) he's more electable and (b) I prefer his politics.

If its a Paul v. Dr. Dan race, I will hope like hell that Dr. Dan wins.  Although I'm not a fan of Dr. Dan, he's a heck of a lot better than a crazy-whack like Paul.  I'd give Paul a slight advantage.

If it's Paul v. Conway, I think we'll see Paul have a modest lead at first, and then Conway will pick up steam and win this race.  From what I've observed from Paul, he's not a good fit for KY.  

If Grayson wins the Republican primary, I think he'll be a favorite against Dr. Dan and Conway.  I'd say it would be likely retention against Mongiardo and lean retention against Conway.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 19:59:37 PM UTC

Derby and more

First, to the uninitiated, YES Derby would effect evening calls. It happens at 6 30 and most people are at parties in this city. Imagine polling New Orleans during Mardi Gras.

Now what I found interesting in this poll is that Ron Paul gets only 6% in 2012 Pres primary while his son is winning over Trey Grayson.

This could indicate on both sides anti-establishment sentiment ... something that won't be helped by Mitch McConnell's endorsement of TG or the connection between Dem Reps Yarmuth & Chandler and Jack. The fact that creepy Dr. Dan seems to be hated by the Democratic establishment could be serving him well. The problem is he's hated because he's a creep, not because he's an "outsider."

I wouldn't count Dr. Dan out in the gernal vs. RP, but that's only because of RP & his campaign.  

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by: demkowski @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 21:18:09 PM UTC

Other post-Derby poll confirms Mongiardo's lead

Daniel Mongiardo 39
Jack Conway 32

http://bluegrasspolitics.blogi...

And Paul is way ahead.

This race just isn't going the way I figured it would.  

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by: demkowski @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 22:39:37 PM UTC

This is a great pickup opportunity

and the source of some of the strangest negativity out there.  

Both Dem candidates can beat Paul, especially the more people learn about Paul.  Both Dems are statewide officials.  There negatives and weirdnesses are basically played out.  To be kind, Paul has the potential to say or do something outrageous every day between now and the election.

Like most everybody here, I prefer Conway, but Mongiardo should be able to handle Paul too.

This one is like found money, and should remind everybody that having a decent candidate in every race is important because Team Red is very capable of screwing the pooch.

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by: tommypaine @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 22:46:43 PM UTC

This is a second-tier pickup opportunity, at best

in my opinion. Why? Because Democrats haven't managed to win under more favorable environments. It seems to me that Jim Bunning is crazier than Paul, to the extent that he not only holds far-out opinions but - with the caveat that I'm not a psychologist and have never examined him - seems literally mentally ill.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu May 06, 2010 at 01:45:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I tend to agree

Paul may or may not be a crazy-whack, but Jim Bunning is a lunatic.  

I think our best chances to pick up senate seats at this time(First tier) will be OH, MO, and NH.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu May 06, 2010 at 13:22:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree on that

And NC may be the #4 target.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri May 07, 2010 at 07:38:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope so

I'm discouraged with the NC-Sen race.  The excitement within the Democratic base just doesn't exist this year.

2 years ago, one of the biggest hammering points on the Dole-Hagan contest was about Dole herself.  The common sentiment was that she's not a true North Carolinian but instead a Washington insider.  Dole didn't travel to NC much to talk to her constituents.  The youth factor also played in this contest.  Liddy aged a tremendous amount in 6 years.

In contrast, Burr doesn't have these problems.  He's fairly active within NC.  He doesn't look like an old curmudgeon either.  Marshall is a good candidate, but I don't see her energizing the troops to victory.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Fri May 07, 2010 at 13:19:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So the rocking chair ad won't work?

I was hoping for an encore. Burr isn't well known. What kind of activity has he been doing in NC?

To clarify, I do think NC-Sen is a 2nd-tier race, but probably the top of the 2nd-tier races.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri May 07, 2010 at 15:27:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's helped out the Eastern part of NC a lot

The navy wanted to build an outdoor landing field in rural Eastern NC for military training.  The area has a lot of wildlife that would be disturbed, not to mention the distractions that surrounding areas would have to incur (my inlaws live in the county of this proposal).  To Burr's credit he met with the people in the Eastern part of NC, listened to their issues, and decided to not support this action.  Liddy Dole wouldn't come down.  This was huge because Burr is from the western half of NC, and historically there has been significant power struggles between the Eastern and Western half of NC.  The landing field was never created as a result.

Although I disagree with Burr on almost all issues, he has shown that he will listen to his constituents.  Liddy Dole never did.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Fri May 07, 2010 at 17:12:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Conway needs to go all in

He has more money than Dr. Dan, and is far more electable.  KY voters, please make the right choice in a few weeks.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 23:11:42 PM UTC

Funny

I have seen zero commercials for Conway but five or so for Dr. Dan, which was all about his opposition to cap and trade. I live in the Louisville market so Conway may not feel like he needs to advertise here since he is guaranteed a win here, but in all reality I think he should be trying to get Louisville out to vote in greater numbers. The reason Dr. Dan will probably win this is simply because much of the primary electorate are conservative old school types that vote Republican in Presidential runs. Also many feel that Dr. Dan came close in 2004 and should be given a second shot. I really hope Conway will win the primary, but honestly it would be surprising if he did.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Thu May 06, 2010 at 02:10:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I never give in out of state primaries that haven't garnered national attention but..

I threw some coin at Conway a few weeks ago. His victory is the difference between able to chalk up another competitive seat and writing one off.

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by: nrimmer @ Thu May 06, 2010 at 03:19:37 AM UTC

Are

you seeing the same results I am? Dr. Dan is within 4 points of beating Paul. I can honestly say that Paul is not the right fit for Kentucky. He really isn't. Honestly I know I will not be popular for saying it, but I would still root for a Dr. Dan victory if he won the primary. He actually does kind of fit Kentucky well when you think about it. A conservative Democrat for a conservative state. Plus you have to remember he is close with Obama ever since their 04' runs. He even did a commercial for Obama, with them appearing side by side. So in the Senate I could see their personal relationship actually influencing his voting. I think for the most part he would be an Obama ally. I still think Conway would be more electable and better all around, but I won't root for a Dr. Dan loss in November.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Thu May 06, 2010 at 10:55:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]