Conway

I have to say I had assumed Conway would not only be more competitive, but would be the clear favorite. Didn't he have much of the Dem establishment behind him? What happened here?

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by: LeftistAddiction @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 17:37:33 PM UTC

I ditto LeftistAddiction's sentiments and query Kentucky SSPers...

...why is Mongiardo consistently ahead?

Conway is an elected Attorney General, which in most states is the next-most high profile statewide elected position behind Governor and the U.S. Senate seats.  Lieutenant Governor can be equally high-profile is separately elected, but in Kentucky L.G. is NOT separately elected.

So why does Mongiardo have an edge?  Is there really that much more name recognition left over from 2004?  That's unusual, a state legislator who loses a statewide bid and then gets to be L.G. 5 years later as a hand-picked running mate shouldn't have a clear edge over an elected Attorney General.

What gives?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 18:26:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's going to be Paul vs. Mongiardo

At this point that's how I see it. We should start talking about the general election, because at this point it looks like Paul can hang onto this seat, but there's months down the road for Mongiardo to make up lost ground and to recapture some of the support he rankled up in 2004.

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by: Techno Byte @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 18:06:34 PM UTC

This is a long strecth between polls

I think I will wait to judge whether Conway is sinking too bad considering the last PPP poll was in December. I'd like to see some more polling on this race as the primary comes to a close.

I am surprised also that Conway would not have received a bit of a bump in the polls considering one of his horses was featured in the Kentucky Derby.

I really hope Conway wins this one. He's the exact profile of my kind of Democrat. I spotted him as an up and comer when he won the AG race in 2007 (little did I know he ran for previous office) and I really would like to see him be our nominee for this race.  

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by: fitchfan28 @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 18:08:06 PM UTC

I can't understand

how it's not obvious to Democrats in KY that Conway is a stronger candidate than Mongiardo.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 18:12:23 PM UTC

Looking at the crosstabs

The problem here is the same problem Conway has been having, in that despite their ideological differences Mongiardo still has a narrow lead with liberals.

Until Conway gets voters thinking that this is more than a choice between one conservative Bluegrass Democrat and another, he's not getting anywhere.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

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by: Bob Bobson @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 18:20:13 PM UTC

And Mongiardo brags about being conservative!......

One of the TV ads I saw online by Mongiardo has him bragging as he looks into the camara that he's pro-gun, pro-life, and something to the effect of opposing gay marriage (he uses some such coded terminology as "traditional marriage" or something similar).  And I'm pretty sure that was a 30-second TV buy, not a web ad for media circulation.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 18:28:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I put this in the other thread but,

the point remains the same.  If Daniel Mongiardo wins the democratic primary, this race is OVER.  Solid R.  The liberal/progressive base in the state cannot stand Mongiardo, and they'll sit out the general, allowing Paul an easy victory.  I understand that Kentucky is a conservative, red state, and that at times you have to be a bit of a maverick in order to get elected as a democrat there.  However, by opposing every piece of major democratic legislation that comes down the pike, and acting like a horse's ass in general throughout the campaign is no way to endear yourself to your base, or perhaps more importantly, independents.  

Daniel Mongiardo is unelectable.  The general election polls always bear that out.  If I were the DSCC, I'd be pushing all in behind Conway right now, and then if Mongiardo won I'd pull out of KY entirely, focusing resources on more important states, like Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, etc.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 18:50:24 PM UTC

Agree

I hate to use Rasmussen fo anything but the disparity is clear. Mongiardo is simply unelectable.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 18:58:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I tend to agree with this

If Mongiardo couldn't win against the unpopular Bunning in '04, there's no way he can win in such an anti-Dem environment. I wouldn't put it quite at Solid GOP, given Paul is a flawed candidate himself, but Likely GOP surely isn't a stretch.

Now, if Conway can somehow pull a victory, I think we could have more of a Lean GOP race on our hands.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 19:11:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The '04 comparison is unfair

I agree Conway looks to be a far stronger bet than Mongiardo, but 2004 has nothing to do with it: It was a presidential year in a red state, a GOP-friendly year, no one expected the race to be competitive in early October and Mongiardo was expected to be a sacrificial lamb - yet he ended up being much closer than many much-heralded Dems who were running in top-tier campaigns (AK, SC, NC... Dems also lost SD/FL). Mongiardo's 2004 performance is nothing to hit him for.

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by: LeftistAddiction @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 19:55:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Completely agree...

Mongiardo didn't surge until the last couple weeks in a difficult cycle. Had he had two more weeks, he would have beaten Bunning.  

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by: greg91020 @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 20:01:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If the liberal/progressive base can't stand Mongiardo

then why are opinion polls showing that they favor him over Conway? Is this a case of assumptions vs. reality?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 01:35:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Too bad Conway's horse didn't win the Derby

I bet all that publicity would have been enough to make voters warm and fuzzy about him.

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by: tommypaine @ Tue May 04, 2010 at 22:05:30 PM UTC

A little insight from the bluegrass

First, this poll's bottom line numbers seem unusual... JC was gaining momentum as he became more known, then suddenly, backwards? I haven't looked at the crosstabs, but I would suspect timing was an issue. This poll was taken MAY 1st. What else happened May 1st? The KY Derby. If you don't know, that is a holiday in Louisville, KY and for most Louisvillians worldwide. The day after is used for recovery. Since JC's base is Louisville liberals, I would suspect most of them didn't answer the phone on Sat.

Now, I, too am surprised Jack hasn't pulled away by now. DM is a terrible candidate who only surged to near victory based on the "original Macaca moment" where Bunning said he looked like Sadaam's son. Still, he wasn't able to finish the deal.

There may be some anti-Louisville bias going on in this race also, since the state pretty much hates all things Louisville (except for the cash we generate) and Jack is very Louisville.

Finally, conservative DINOs are a large voting block. Many ALWAYS vote GOP in Fed. elections. The reason they are registered Dems has to do with tradition and our farked up constitution.  

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by: demkowski @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 16:06:52 PM UTC

A poll in KY on Derby Day, ahhhhh

Your explanation makes sense. Unfortunately, that's a hit on the credibility of PPP - but is something that should be confirmed (or not) by some other reputable poll.

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by: tietack @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 16:29:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP problem?

I'm not sure a national outfit like PPP would even think to consider a local holiday like Derby. I don't blame them, just see reason their poll might be off.

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by: demkowski @ Wed May 05, 2010 at 20:47:38 PM UTC