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SSP Daily Digest: 4/30 (Morning Edition)

by: James L.

Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 8:03 AM EDT


  • NH-Everything: UNH is out with their latest Granite State poll, and the results aren't particularly appetizing. Kelly Ayotte leads Paul Hodes by 47-31 in the Senate race, and even Bill Binnie and Ovide Lamontagne claim razor-thin leads, too. In the 1st CD, Carol Shea-Porter trails Frank Guinta by 42-38, Rich Ashooh by 39-36, and Sean Mahoney by 40-37. In the 2nd, ex-Rep. Charlie Bass leads Katrina Swett by 44-27, and is ahead of Ann McLane Kuster by 42-30.

  • FL-Sen: Perhaps sensing this race was just too boring, billionaire real estate investor Jeff Greene is throwing his hat into the Democratic Senate primary against Kendrick Meek.

  • CA-Gov: Steve Poizner is going after Meg Whitman hard over her past tenure on the board of Goldman Sachs in a new ad. I like this primary!

  • CO-Gov: Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper reported raising $1.1 million in the first quarter, even though he didn't enter the race until halfway through January. His opponent, Republican ex-Rep. Scott McInnis, raised only $550K. (D)

  • OH-15: Republican retread Steve Stivers thinks he's hit upon a new winning issue: He wants to repeal the 17th Amendment. That's, uh, the one which requires senators to be directly elected by the people, rather than appointed by state legislatures. Weirdly, he claims it's a "states rights" issue, which I guess makes sense, if by "states" you mean a bunch of elected elites. Maybe we can have an appointed president, too? What a freak. (D)

  • OH-18: Bad blood already brewing? '08 Republican nominee and ex-state Agriculture Director Fred Dailey, who's facing against state Sen. Bob Gibbs (and a dozen other teabaggers) in the primary to settle the rights to take on Zack Space, is crying foul over the state GOP's favoritism of Gibbs. Dailey claims that someone from the state party contacted his campaign website operator to ask that his site be "taken down", and that the party is steering prospective staffers to other races.

  • WV-01: State Sen. Mike Oliverio, waging a primary challenge against Dem Rep. Allan Mollohan, won't commit to voting for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House if he wins. Dick Morris (yeah, whu?) wanted him to commit to voting against her, so I guess this is a hopeful sign...? Meanwhile, the Republican primary is just as lively, with two candidates heavily investing in their own campaigns. (D)
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    James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/30 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 4/30 (Morning Edition) | 25 comments
    WV-1
    I remain very curious about just who exactly is donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to Mike Oliverio to compete in a Democratic primary. Though I do find it very amusing that after being feted in all of the Nutting/Ogden Media papers, and going to events like this one, that Dick Morris would say Oliverio can't win in November - while Oliverio is in the audience.
    Well, if they want a Republican to represent them
    since it's blatantly obvious that Olverio would switch parties the second Republicans gain control of the House. He's only a Democrat because you have to be one to get anywhere politically in WV.
    [ Parent ]
    If that's true, how did Capito/Moore get anywhere in WV?
    They are prominent WV Republicans who've had some degree of success.
    [ Parent ]
    She's Unique Though
    WV is like a lot of places - it's a lot easier to get elected to office when your daddy was a veteran Congressman and a three-term governor.
    [ Parent ]
    And so how did Arch get on so well ?
    he was a WV R Gov, and ran close to Jay Rockefeller a couple of times.
    [ Parent ]
    Arch beat Jay in '72

    [ Parent ]
    Ugh
    It's frustrating when already not-so-progressive Dems face primary challenges from super-duper-muper conservative Dems. In any case, there's only been one Dem who hasn't voted for his party leader as Speaker this entire decade (Gene Taylor, and he did it once), so this isn't something parties typically worry about.

    What does "whu" stand for again?

    OH-15
    This is without a doubt, one of the most critical house races in the entire country.  Mary Kilroy has been a down the line, positive liberal voice for a city that has been growing into a new-era bastion of liberalism (Columbus).  This hack that's running against her, Stivers, is a bass-ackward politician from the rural reaches of the district that has a knack for legislating morality down people's throats and screwing cities, towns, and virtually any area that is a little bit built up.  

    This isn't a case of possibly losing a blue dog and getting it replaced with an independent conservative type.  In OH-15, either we keep one of the more reliable votes in the House, or we subject ourselves to an absolute whacko.  If I was the DCCC, this district would be right at the top of my spending list.  Swing districts like this in swing states like Ohio are the districts that we absolutely, positively cannot afford to lose in November.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    this race makes me really nervous
    barely winning with a plurality in a Democratic year in a district that is slightly more Democratic than the nation as a whole makes me a bit uneasy, especially if OSU turnout is low.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    This race may be a nail biter
    I had this race swinging slightly towards Stivers, but this repealing of the 17th ammendment is beyond assinine.  I doubt he will get any additional support from his constituents from remarks like these.

    This race is a pure tossup.  

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    I got an email
    from Mary Kilroy's campaign today, they are running a big petition across the state against Stivers's wanting to take away the right to elect senators.  I signed it, and with it I am sending the following to Stivers's office:

    Dear Mr. Stivers,

    My name is StephenCLE (didn't actually write that, LOL).  I have been an Ohio resident my whole life, and I reside in the greater Cleveland area.  I have relatives that live in OH-15, and I have many personal ties to the city of Columbus and it's surrounding area.  Us Ohioans are generally down to earth types that work hard, don't complain, and take great respect and responsibility in our personal rights, freedoms, and liberties.  The single biggest right that we have as Americans is the right to vote, a right that many of our servicemen and women have fought for and sacrificed their lives for.  As an American, I have deep respect for their defense of freedom.

    Which is why I am absolutely horrified that you are in favor of taking away our right to directly elect our members of the United States Senate, a right that was properly enacted by the 17th amendment.  Regardless of where you or I stand politically, such a restriction of liberty in the name of elitism and political gain would be disastrous for both the state of Ohio and the nation.  It is the insinuation that somehow people like myself, your typical, hard-working Ohioan, are not good enough or politically astute enough to properly elect Ohio's senators, that deeply offends me.

    Mr. Stivers, I sincerely hope that, should you win election to Congress in November, that you will not lose of the reason that you were elected, and that is to be a proper representative of the people of Ohio's 15th district.  Support of taking away their right to elect Ohio's senators would not only be a massively unpopular position, but one that would undermine the constitutional rights of the very people you represent.  That is not the kind of representation the people of this nation want or deserve.  

    What do you all think?

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Latest IL-Sen Ras Poll
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Kirk is up 46-38 in this poll.  The last Ras poll had Kirk up 41-38 in early April.

    I'm not a fan of Ras, but the regression of this race looks somewhat accurate.  Alexi has some problems regarding his family's bank.  I think a 5% drop as a result is expected.  However, I think this race is tighter than this poll indicates.  Kirk is probably ahead, but by an amount that is within the margin of error.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    Id really like to see a poll with Madigan
    Id really not like to the chance on Alexi anymore.  WIth that bank baggage, I just dont see it happening.  Or if so, by a nail-biting margin and if Madigan is still polling better then him, then he should be forced out.

    The bank thing, sorry man, that's politics.  Im sure the IL Dem party will do you a solid down the road for taking one for the team.  Where does he love in Chicago?  Tell me Lipinski's district, that'd be too perfect.

    [ Parent ]
    according to IL board of elections site
    he lives a few blocks north of Water Tower Place...I'm pretty sure that's IL-07 (Danny Davis). And if he seemed like a threat to Lipinski I'm sure redistricting would fix that in a jiffy. so we'll have to look elsewhere...

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    My math for a Meek senate victory...
    Ok I'm at work right now and was bored out of my mind, so I started crunching numbers for the 3-way race in Florida. Here is my very unprofessional number crunching results!

      Based off of CNN exit polling from 2008 (the last statewide race featuring an AA), 2006 (last Crist statewide race and mid-term election), and 2004 (the last GOP hispanic candidate).

    First the polling from those races:

    Exit polling in Florida for 2004:

            Total voters: 7,548,066

               AA voters: 981,249/12%

            Latin voters: 1,132,210/15%

          White Voters: 5,359,127/71%

    Exit polling in Florida for 2006:

            Total voters: 4,638,717

               AA voters: 603,033/14%

            Latin voters: 695808/11%

          White Voters: 3,293,489/72%

    Exit polling in Florida for 2008:

            Total voters: 8,327,698

               AA voters: 1,082,601/13%

            Latin voters: 1,249,155/14%

          White Voters: 5,912,666/71%

      As you can see the numbers hover around the same percentage rates. For my numbers I just used the lowest in all instances just to not give any biased feeling towards any one race. Here is what I have come up with as to the percent range and winner of the 2010 Senate race:

    Kendrick Meek = 45%

    Marco Rubio = 29%

    Charlie Crist = 23%

      The way I came up with these numbers; was using all three election years for all three times one of the three candidates/or races were in the election that year. Meaning in 2008, Barack Obama was the AA on the ballot in FL so I used the exit polling on AA of 2008 for that number; and so on for the rest, Crist in 2006 and Martinez in 2004. Completely unscientific but I think its a true representation of how these folks will vote. Now will Meek get 45% of the vote, probably not. I attribute the difference to it being an anti-DC attitude as well as anti-democrat.

      But I do feel this will come to getting out the base instead of independents. I didn't include them in these numbers, because there was no race where a major candidate of one party left to go to the independent side. So there was no basis of recent times. Plus, independents are not much of a voting block here in Florida, and I don't think will make much of a difference in this race.

      Please feel free to ask questions and help or add to my analysis. Thanks!

     

    I think the best case scenario for Meek is something like...
    Dem - 35%
    GOP - 35%
    Indie - 30%

    Crist - 20/25/25 = 25%
    Meek - 77/3/35 = 39%
    Rubio - 3/82/35 = 36%

    And the worst case scenario...

    GOP - 40%
    Dem - 32%
    Indie - 28%

    Crist - 25/35/35 = 31%
    Meek - 0/62/30 = 28%
    Rubio - 75/3/35 = 41%

    And the most likely scenario...

    GOP - 37%
    Dem - 33%
    Indie - 30%

    Crist - 20/30/30 = 27%
    Meek - 3/67/30 = 32%
    Rubio - 77/3/40 = 41%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    What are you basing these numbers one?
    Just curious how you came to these numbers?
    [ Parent ]
    Just a tweaking of the '08 CNN exit polling, with potential party turn-outs
    On a related note, I never knew McCain peeled off 12% of Dems in the '08 race. I imagine that puts Meek's ceiling at about 85% max there.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Jim Davis got 85% of the dem vote in 2006..
    So even if Meek gets that, Crist would be splitting it with Rubio. So I don't see that being a problem. Plus if you look at the last primary poll don't for this year Rubio is only getting 60%, I don't see him getting much more than that in the general with Crist. I'm actually a little surprised people are not being more optimistic towards Meeks chances.
    [ Parent ]
    FL
    Won't Democrats have a 800-900K Voter registration advantage by the time Election Day rolls around?  Is "best case" really equal turnout?

    How is Rubio polling amongst Hispanics?

    29/D/Male/NY-01

    [ Parent ]
    Id think Crist would do better with Indys

    [ Parent ]
    The African American vote percentage was lower in '08 than in '06?
    Seems counter-intuitive.  
    [ Parent ]
    CNN exit polls
    Based off the CNN exit polls, yes. I thought it was strange too, but non the less thats what it stated.
    [ Parent ]
    well, actually...
    Well the AA voters were more than in 2008 than in 2006, but so was the total amount of voters statewide. Thats what makes up the difference.  
    [ Parent ]
    Posted this late into the previous Digest:
    We're going to find out if Republicans would really vote against Christ himself if he were a Democrat:

    http://www.swingstateproject.c...

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    SSP Daily Digest: 4/30 (Morning Edition) | 25 comments

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