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SSP Daily Digest: 4/29 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 3:28 PM EDT


CA-Sen: Huckabee hearts Chuck DeVore. The once and perhaps future presidential contender endorsed the conservative Assemblyman, who's buried deep in third place in the GOP Senate primary but still flying the right-wing flag with pride.

UT-Sen: Bob Bennett finally reeled in the endorsement that'll help him salvage his career at the state convention... Karl Rove! OK, I'm being a little facetious, but Utah is dark-red enough that Rove might actually still be more asset than liability here.

WA-Sen: The DSCC sent opposition researchers to Washington to comb-over Dino Rossi's business dealings in a Dan Coats-style pre-emptive attack, and already unearthed an interesting nugget: $20,000 in back taxes on an investment property owned by an investment group in which Rossi is a partner. Also, I'd speculated last week that minor candidate (and Rossi friend) Chris Widener's dropout may foreshadow a Rossi entry. Not so, Widener is now saying: he has no insight into Rossi's plans, and his departure had nothing to do with Rossi one way or the other. Widener felt that Don Benton and Paul Akers were coalescing as front-runners in a non-Rossi field, leaving Widener not much of a shot even with Rossi out.

CT-04: Things got whittled down in the GOP field in the 4th, to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Jim Himes. Former state Sen. Rob Russo, a former aide to and ally of ex-Rep. Chris Shays, dropped out and threw his support to his former colleague, the somewhat more conservative state Sen. Dan Debicella. Russo seemed squeezed by the late entry of moneybags Thomas Herrmann.

GA-08: The 8th was one of the GOP's biggest recruiting failures in a year that saw them round up a remarkably full dance card; it's an R+10 district where Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall has never won by a crushing margin, but they were left with only an assortment of non-self-funding businessmen and local cranks. That may change, though, as reports suggest state Rep. Austin Scott, who's had little luck breaking out of the low single-digits in the GOP gubernatorial primary field, may be willing to try his hand in the 8th instead. (Scott had also been urged to get into the Lt. Governor primary against Casey Cagle.) It still seems an uphill fight for Scott (especially getting in the fundraising game so late), but definitely an upgrade for the GOP; Scott will have to finalize his decision soon, as Friday is the filing deadline.

KS-03: One more Republican decided to get into the field in the open seat race in the 3rd, where there's a gaping hole where presumed front-runner state Sen. Nick Jordan used to be (after his surprising dropout). Lawyer and ice rink owner Jean Ann Uvodich launched her candidacy today.

MI-01: Connie Saltonstall, who got NARAL and NOW endorsements in the primary in the 1st back when Bart Stupak was still planning to run, is saying if she doesn't win the primary she won't back a general election candidate who isn't pro-choice. That seems to limit her choices: of the three state legislators who piled into the Dem field after Stupak's retirement, only one (Matt Gillard) is pro-choice; Gary McDowell and Joel Sheltrown are pro-life. EMILY's List is still pondering whether to get behind Saltonstall, polling the race to see if she's a viable candidate.

NJ-03: Rep. John Adler has turned out to have a more conservative voting record (characterized by his anti-HCR vote) than pretty much anyone expected, given his track record in the state legislature. Adler's standing among the Democratic base will get put the test with a primary challenge, it turns out: Barry Bendar, the chair of the local Democratic committee in Lacey Township (in Ocean County), will run against Adler. Bendar says he'll still support Adler in the general in the very likely event he doesn't win the primary.

Michigan: At the Michigan Liberal blog, they're taking a look at the prospects in the state Senate and House in November... and they're using a variation on Swing State Project's own House Vulnerability Index as the metric for making predictions. Democrats look likely to lose a few seats in the House (where they have a decent-sized majority) but the Senate (where they're a few flips away from the majority) looks like it could be anyone's game at this point.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/29 (Afternoon Edition)
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I'm disappointed in Adler.
He was my State Senator before he joined the House, but hey, he ain't my congressman (mine is Andrews).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


And that makes you happy?
n/t

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
I turned around my PA absentee ballot today
Hardest vote I've made in a while. But at the end of the day, it was Specter.  

In your place, I'm pretty sure I would have done the same thing
And I'm pretty sure it would have been a hard decision for me as well!

[ Parent ]
I gotta applaud you
I think Specter is the best bet, if only because he's a proven campaigner and at this point he's shown he's pretty willing to be a party player so long as he gets to keep his power. The people that say he'll instantly go Joe Lieberman are not only speculating, but I feel they are not making good analysis here. For one, I trust the Democratic party leadership; the national leaders would not have utterly embraced Specter if they weren't confident in his new allegiance.

Two, such people don't realize how terrible it would look if the Democratic party didn't embrace Specter. They don't realize there are still millions of moderate to liberal Republicans in the Northeast who tend to vote Democratic now in Presidential elections but haven't been solidly brought into the party and are feeling the squeeze from conservatives. There are lot of these still in PA, and with SW PA going redder and redder they are a crucial part of the future Democratic coalition. Specter would be an excellent figure in helping pull these long time backers within into supporting more progressive politics and the Democratic party reliably.

Three, Specter is the proven campaigner. Time and again he has shown his ability to overcome a bad lean, which this year is actually in the Republicans favor instead of against them. He's a masterful negative campaigner and fundraiser and by the time he's through with Toomey he'll have him painted as a right-wing ideologue to the right of Santorum, ineffective, inconsistent, and not in line with the state's views, all the while presenting himself as the principled moderate who was rejected by the Republican party. He'll sweep Toomey in Philly area, and that alone is almost enough to carry the state when you factor in Pittsburgh proper and areas like Scranton and Erie.

Four, Specter's also a proven commodity, there's limited dirty laundry there or it would have been discovered by now. Sestak has problems with the way he's treated his staffers that could turn into a bigger issue down the road if more on his verbally abusive tendencies is revealed during the campaign.


[ Parent ]
Specter also only has one term in him
I say let him serve until 2016. After that progressives can nominate their man or woman of choice (and that person will probably be better than Sestak), and he/she will win in a presidential year.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Even though Specter initially said he wouldn't be a loyal Democrat,
the fact is that he has been.
So if he wins the general election, I'd be willing to, take a deep breath, and not be upset if he's given some chairmanship back in January. He's done his "probationary" period.

[ Parent ]
Give him Lieberman's chairmanship
I fantasize about taking away Lieberman's chairmanship and giving it to Specter.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
His actions up to primary day mean nothing
What matters is after the primary, win or lose.

[ Parent ]
not my business
but if you would indulge me; why not sestak? just curious

[ Parent ]
What would have convinced me to vote for Sestak?
I came up with a few reasons:

1) the possibility that Specter wouldn't "stay bought" (unlikely, I decided), 2) the possibility that Specter wouldn't serve out his term (a bit macabre), and 3) That Sestak would be more likely to defeat Toomey (That's what Sestak needed to demonstrate to me this year, and he didn't).

I might also have been swayed by Specter's history of helping to ruin the Federal bench. But I'm confident that he'll remain our SOB now, which is really what matters at the end of the day.  


[ Parent ]
FAIR ENOUGH
thanks for the info; i am still pulling for sestak BUT i have been much more impressed by arlen's campaign than sestak's

[ Parent ]
I'll take either one
Arlen will most likely stay within the framework of our party if reelected.  However, the dude is old and has had some serious health issues.  Sestak, however, is 58 years old and can probably stay in our mix for a couple of terms.  

When Arlen made the switch, I decided almost immediately that I would pull for him in the primary.  Arlen is a SOB, but he was a major pain in the ass for the GOP the last few years, and that puts a smile on my face.  So far, he's been fairly tame as a Democrat.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
and they also forget with Specter
its the opposite situation as with Lieberman. Lieberman got primaried from the left and it drove him to the right, Specter got primaried from the right and it's going to drive him securely to the left in order to give those rightists a big FU.

[ Parent ]
and who was your choice for Gov.?
And why? (if you care to tell)

33, living in Germany  

[ Parent ]
Joe Hoeffel
That one was easier. I know him.  

[ Parent ]
A new NV Sen poll
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

Reid is down 45-41 to Lowden, and yes, this is Research2000/Daily Kos poll, but the regression is very positive.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


I think it's good news because
Reid really hasn't even taken the gloves off and started spending his millions of dollars to bury Lowden in an avalanche of negative ads while touting his clout and ability to get things done for the state. The GOP is frankly going to need someone more competent than Lowden to beat Reid, Reid is a savvy campaigner who has been in this situation before.

[ Parent ]
chicken news: Even Tarkanian is now mocking Lowden over her HCR "plan".
Sue Lowden's Republican Rival Attacks Chickens For Checkups
So even though that R2K poll at the moment shows Lowden to be stronger than Tarkanian against Reid, I'm hoping she makes it through her primary.
She and her campaign (and their not-so-terrific damage control) have shown themselves to be real amateur hour with a lot of opportunity for more gaffes through November.

[ Parent ]
Crist Press Conference
http://www.wsvn.com/video/ch2/ 5:30 EST.
BTW, the NRSC has taken Crist off its website.

Here, Democrats shall joyfully hold hands with Republicans
and paint Charlie Crist as a naked opportunist!

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
I hope to God!
I would just LOVE to see him come in a distant third!!

[ Parent ]
My sense is that Crist will collapse
Meek has money and institutional support. He isn't Alan Schlesinger.

[ Parent ]
Agree
And it is in Repubs nature to coalesce around Rubio far more than Dems did around Lamont.

[ Parent ]
Crist has teachers and is the Governor of FL
I think he'll end up in third place, but there isn't going to be a collapse like Scozzafava.

[ Parent ]
does this mean we'll finally get a front-page
post about Crist's switch?

[ Parent ]
Pathetic
Teachers with signs were told to move to the front, everyone else told to hold signs low for cameras. People moving desperately thru crowd trying to get volunteers.  

[ Parent ]
Sooo many lies!
It is painful! Everything seems so faked! This is really painful to watch.  

[ Parent ]
GA
Looks like Scott will run for Congress and put another one of our seats into deep trouble.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Smile
Always the sunny optimist huh Tek? I think "potentially competitive" is more like it.

[ Parent ]
I don't understand this comment
What are you talking about?  Scott isn't someone that I'm worrying much about.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Remotely competitive is more like it
And that's if Scott even pulls the trigger but hey i'm not the one who lives in fear and pessmisism so what the hell do I know.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Scott who?
Is that a first or a last name? What district?

[ Parent ]
Austin Scott (R-Tifton)
He has now NO money for this race because you can't transfer from state to federal, he's from the WRONG part of the district to win it, and he has entrenched primary opposition so he might not even make it to face Marshall

[ Parent ]
GA-08
I wouldn't write him off just yet.

There's a rumor that Hicks might drop out, and she's the "establishment" candidate at the moment.

Living in Tifton is not an issue. Sure, to beat Marshall you'll have to close the gap in Macon, but if any Republican could do it, it'd be Scott.

Scott can chip at Marshall's support from Macon's large black community, and also chip at his large swath of rural support.

As far as fundraising, something tells me he will not have too much trouble raising a fair amount of money. With all the rumors swirling over the past few weeks about him dropping out of the Governor's race, he's had plenty of time to start working on fundraising.

I'm for Marshall 100%, he's one of my favorite Democrats.

We're fortunate that the GOP does not realize how valuable Scott is. I believe he is the Republican that can convince many Conservative and even some moderate leaning Democrats to switch parties.

That said, Marshall will win, and he'll do well.


[ Parent ]
Scott almost lost his state house seat last year
Which basically takes in all of Tift county which is worse for Democrats than the 8th and he was the incumbent! Sure he isn't a conspiracy theory nut but that doesn't mean he'll "chip at Marshall's support from Macon's large black community" or win over any other Democrats in the district who think Marshall is plenty conservative as it is.  

[ Parent ]
Almost lost it the election before that.
Tibbetts got 46%+ against him twice.  Incidentally, Tibbetts IS running for that open seat (took him long enough).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
About Time
It's about time, I heard awhile back he wasn't running. Maybe we'll actually pick up this seat.

[ Parent ]
There are some surprisingly good opportunities this year
We might actually dent the Republicans' Senate majority and have some good opportunities in the House (including this one), although we have some defense there, too.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Scott
Scott was one of the few Republicans to go against the old flag. He won a lot of respect from the black community for that.

Marshall should win, and I certainly hope he does, but I don't think Scott is anyone to laugh at.

This is not saying much, but if he can make it out of the Primary, I think the Marshall-Scott race will be the second most competitive Congressional race in our state.


[ Parent ]
In
case you missed it, the SUSA Indiana primary poll came out. I will admit I always thought Coats would lose, but I suppose he will probably pull it through.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


That dosen't shock me
Since he can campaign and fundraise something John Hostettler could never do I mean who think they can win a Senate primary when in one quarter you only raised 27k? Those are pathetic but not suprising numbers Hoosier.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Who cares what Saltonstall does after the primary?
Her endorsement isn't going to matter. Oh...and EMILY's List, she isn't a viable candidate.

Rossi will get destroyed whether GOPers want to believe or not. He's a three time re-tread who was a sore-loser, then a sure-loser and now a rich nobody who thinks he can buy his way into office. Murray is a much better politician then Gregoire. She's done well against a number of Republicans over the years. I just don't buy it.


Her endorsement isn't going to matter. Oh...and EMILY's List, she isn't a viable candidate
Agreed, hey endorsement won't mean squat and as for Emily's list, they haven't really been successful when it comes to endorsing candidates lately.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
MN Gov, Republican convention
Sarah Palin endoresed Tom Emmer.

On Thursday, the day before Minnesota Republicans are slated to vote on their choice for governor, Tom Emmer won powerful backing from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, one of the party's biggest stars.

Palin said Emmer, a leading candidate for governor, is a straight talking, patriotic hockey dad.

http://www.startribune.com/blo...

Both Emmer and chief rival Marty Seifert have pledged to drop out of the race if they do not win their party's nod Friday so whoever gets the convention endorsement will be the Republican candidate (there may be nuisance primary challenger but no serious challenger).  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


KS-Sen: New "Some Dude(tte)" Candidate
Joining newspaper editor Charles Schollenberger and non-entity Patrick Coriolan is Baker University assistant dean Lisa Johnston.

The only interesting thing about her: her web operations may turn out to be top-tier...she's being introduced by buzzworthy 2008 KS State House candidate Sean Tevis, who electrified local Dems by raising $100,000+ for his campaign almost entirely over the web. (The average haul is about $25,000, and though Tevis lost narrowly in his first-ever race, 52-48, he outperformed Obama by like 10 points)

Link: http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q...

A contested primary would almost certainly help Dems, since no one knows who any of these people are.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


Oh--and...
Sean Tevis is indeed running again against double-chinned arch-conservative Speaker Pro-Tem Arlen Siegfreid.

And yes, the Tevis website with the super-fun xkcd-style comics is back:

http://seantevis.com/kansas/30...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
NY-Sen: Cornyn sets sights on ousting Gillibrand
Souder
is very vulnerable according to SUSA.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Christ [no, not "Crist"] is running for Senate
Eric Christ that is.  He's a Democrat running for a State Senate seat here in Georgia (SD-40), which is Northern DeKalb (Dunwoody, Chamblee, Doraville, Tucker) and some of Gwinnett.  It's an open seat being left open by Republican Dan Weber.  And it's very winnable.

I have got to get a "Christ for Senate" bumper sticker.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


Himes
I'm going to predict this right now: Jim Himes will win reelection by 5 points or more. Fairfield County is pretty liberal, and one reason Chris Shays got elected to so many terms is that he was an incumbent. In a district with a pretty strong lean to one party, it's a lot harder for a candidate from the other party to win if they're not an incumbent, and least of all when they're running against an incumbent that has given the district no reason to be angry at him.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  



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