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SSP Daily Digest: 4/28 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Apr 28, 2010 at 8:01 AM EDT


  • AR-Sen: The odious U.S. Chamber of Commerce is running ads on behalf of Blanche Lincoln, though they are refusing to say how much they are spending on their buy. As Salon says, with friends like these....
  • FL-Sen: Reid Wilson does some counting and finds that Arlen Specter has given back a rather amazing $1 million this election cycle, following his party switch. (Part of this was fueled by an aggressive campaign by the Club for Growth, which won FEC permission to contact Specter's donors and push them to ask for refunds.) If Charlie Crist bails on the GOP, there's no telling how much it might cost him financially, but the Specter precedent suggests it could be a hell of a lot.
  • IL-Sen: Even Mark Kirk is smart enough to skip an IL GOP fundraiser headlined by Sarah Palin.
  • IN-Sen: With the GOP primary just days away, Dan Coats has floated himself a $200K lifeline. I wonder if it will be enough.
  • NV-Sen: Fuck it - Sue Lowden knows that when you're at the bottom of a 2,000-foot deep mineshaft, you should keep fucking digging until you've reached China. That's why she is still advocating the barter system. While this prolonged episode of inspired insanity is not helping her win any elections, it is helping her become one of the most awesome candidates of 2010. Meanwhile, GOP primary opponent Danny Tarkanian is shish-kebobbing Lowden for her "poultry-based healthcare plan."
  • OH-Sen: Quinnipiac should have a poll out of the Dem senate primary this morning.
  • PA-Sen: Michael J. Fox has cut an ad for Arlen Specter, citing his support for medical research. Fox had previously done an ad for Specter in 2004 as well.
  • FL-Gov: Mocking gun ownership? And pissing law enforcement off in the process? It sounds like a deranged GOP fantasy of something they think Dems would love to do, but in fact, the Republican Party of Florida is the guilty party here. They put out a shitty web video mocking CFO Alex Sink, who authorized the purchase of "advanced weaponry" for law enforcement officers who operate out of her agency. The state PBA blistered AG Bill McCollum (who posted the video on his website) for this offense, noting with irony that he's the state's chief law enforcement officer.
  • GA-Gov: Ex-Rep. Nathan Deal has come out in favor of Arizona's draconian new immigration law, apparently the first Republican gubernatorial candidate in Georgia to do so. While Deal trails badly in the polls and isn't very likely to win the GOP nod, in my opinion, he might succeed in driving the Republican field to the right on this issue.
  • NY-Gov: Steve Levy, the Dem-turned-Republican who is hoping to get buzz-sawed by Andrew Cuomo in the fall, is apparently "likely" to get the endorsement of the Queens Republican Party. In order to get a spot on the GOP ballot line, he needs the support of 51% of the state's county-level parties (which are weighted by size), because he's still a registered Democrat. He claims to be at around 45%, but it's not clear if Queens is already included in that tally. If Levy pulls it off, this will be an extraordinary humiliation for Rick Lazio, a man I thought was incapable of being humiliated further.
  • FL-16: Shut up and go away.
  • ID-01: Some Very Wacky Dude dropped out of the GOP primary the other day. On his way out, Michael Chadwick attacked another candidate, Vaughn Ward, for representing "powerful special interest groups in New York City and Washington, D.C." He also called Ward a "protégé and surrogate of the military-industrial-intelligence establishment" who will "vote to build up and sustain the Permanent War Machine." I hadn't realized this, but another Republican, Allan Salzberg, also bailed last week.
  • MI-01: Is it crowded in here, or is it just me? State Rep. Matt Gillard, a Democrat, is the latest to enter the race. He joins two other state Reps, Joel Sheltrown and Gary McDowell, as well as Connie Saltonstall, in the Dem primary field.
  • NY-14: Reshma Saujani may want to re-think her pro-bankster platform as she attempts to unseat Rep. Carolyn Maloney: A new Marist poll shows that even Manhattanites consider Wall Street to be "more of the problem" rather than "more of the solution" by a 49-31 margin.
  • NY-15: As Liz Benjamin observes, Assembly Adam Clayton Powell IV hasn't gotten a whole lot of establishment backing in his attempt to unseat Rep. Charlie Rangel, but a few of his colleagues on the Assembly are hosting a fundraiser for him. Seems pretty minor to me, though.
  • NY-29: Republicans are citing a case from the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals in their attempt to force Gov. David Paterson to hold a special election to fill Eric Massa's seat. The 6th Cir. ruled (PDF) that Art. I, § 2, ¶ 4 of the Constitution required then-Gov. Bob Taft of Ohio to hold a special election to fill Jim Traficant's seat after he was expelled from Congress. However, there's an old New York State Court of Appeals case, People v. Voorhis, 119 N.E. 106 (1918), which held otherwise - and if this goes before the federal courts in NY, the Second Circuit may very well rule differently from the Sixth.
  • Calendar: Be sure to bookmark SSP's handy list of key primary & special elections in the very merry month of May.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/28 (Morning Edition)
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    MI-1
    Out of our bench here, who do you think would get the most traction?  From what I'm seeing, only McDowell is the only one of all of them who seems to be a Yooper.  

    Q is out
    Fisher up 17 points.

    Sounds good to me
    Nothing against Brunner, but I think Fisher gives us the best chance of winning in the GE.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    They must have encountered Brunner campaign supporters
    like we've encountered here. Nothing has turned me off to Brunner more.

    [ Parent ]
    That doesn't really bother me
    The Brunner campaign supporters are okay with me (special emphasis on StephenCle who is a classy guy).  What bothers me with Brunner is a lack of funds.  To win this race, Brunner would have to raise some funds, and so far that has not happened.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    StephenCLE is a notable exception
    In addition, I think he's a valued member of the community, in part because he also participates in the general discussion.

    I'm still annoyed at the last guy, modernsquire, I think. Quite a resemblance to the Mondogorno supporters...


    [ Parent ]
    And that Rock n Roller dude.


    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    FL-16
    If I was a Republican, I'd strongly urge Mahoney to run.  Nothing good could possibly happen if Mahoney was to enter the race.  Many negatives are attached to Mahoney and he would only hurt the Democrats in the long term.  

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    UK-PM Gordon Brown Gaffe
    http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com...

    With his ruling Labour Party trailing in third place in the polls ahead of the May 6 election, Brown was caught on tape describing a grandmother as "bigoted" Wednesday after she confronted him on the economy and immigration during an election campaign walkabout in Rochdale, northern England.

    The grandmother in question was a Labour supporter.

    Per http://www.ukpollingreport.co.... their poll of polls was something like 34/28/30 (Conservative/Labour/Liberal Democrat).


    Been in her house for over half an hour
    [ Parent ]
    Just about to post this
    I wonder if this could go down as the biggest gaffe in world history.  Potential!

    [ Parent ]
    Major league asshole!


    [ Parent ]
    The broadcast apology was almost as bad
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_...

    Most of Brown's face is hidden by microphones. At about 30s - 1m 20s on into the excerpt, his head is fully in his hands.

    While this was on a radio program, he should have known there were cameras as well.

    IMO, Brown looks overwhelmed.


    [ Parent ]
    Maybe he was right?
    "You can't say anything about the immigrants, because of whatnot. But all these Eastern Europeans what are coming in, where are they flocking from?" she said.

    http://euobserver.com/9/29963

    What she said... kinda was bigoted, I think, maybe.

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah that was the one thing
    None of the news reports I saw mentioned....did she say anything that was really bigoted? Because he probably didn't just make that up out of nowhere. And if she did say something bigoted, and he called her on it, at least privately, well, it might actually make me like the guy a bit more on balance.

    But considering the brouhaha, I guess that's beside the point.

    And whomever is his media advisor is awful. Leaving the mic on is such an amateur gaffe.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    In '08, if then Senator Obama said that
    about a voter in western PA, that would have been good news for John McCain. I think that kind of gaffe would have swung at least PA/OH/IN back to the Rs.

    Duffy is a core voter in the UK Labour coalition. Voters like her are still swing voters here in the USA.

    Barring another gaffe in the 3rd debate, I suspect the only question now is whether Labour can stay above 200 seats, and perhaps whether the Liberal Democrats can come close to their seat total.

    I suggest that Brown's gaffe is functionally similar to Sarah Palin's "real americans" gaffe.

    Whether or not Duffy is actually bigoted is not relevant to the outcome. It is politics.


    [ Parent ]
    It certainly would have been GOOD NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN
    but 11 pts' worth? Jack Murtha called his constituents racists and while his margin was smaller than usual he still cruised.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Point well taken w/r/t Murtha
    I had forgotten about his comment about his constituents.

    [ Parent ]
    Don't know hoe much of a difference it makes
    But in the UK, at least you technically have a local face you're voting for, as opposed to directly for Gordon Brown, so maybe that will make it a bit easier for  those kind of voters to keep on going Labour?  

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

    [ Parent ]
    Technically
    But unlike the US, in practice the individual MPs don't have the same sort of autonomy that US members of congress do (and I think there is a large recognition of that fact within the UK).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    GA-HD-34: The woman who beat Palin to run for the Georgia House as a Democrat
    Golick is an insurance whore and I'd like to see him go.  I'm holding out an decision on Blackburn until I know what she stands for.  We've gotten a few people who rant about America's so-called Christian founding and panderers to the teabaggers running as Democrats, so I'm going to play it safe.

    http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    Sue Lowden = Bill Sali, Martha Coakley and other political nimrods
    Lowden is delusional and must think she's invincible. This chicken-stuff is exactly what you would expect from someone who is not a very good politician and just happens by fate to have an opponent who is deeply unpopular. She thinks she can win no matter what she says. Stupid.

    Does anyone else think that Lowden is under the impression that if she keeps this up long enough people will stop making fun of her?


    The odd thing is that
    w/ her cushion in the GOP primary she could have easily said, "Look I said something stupid, it was a bad idea, lets move on," and still won. Now she is just digging her grave.  

    [ Parent ]
    any word on the ground about the rep primary for senate in IN?
    there haven't been any polls and with the primary next tuesday I wonder who's leading.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    I second the motion for answers, and why does DavidNYC suggest...
    ...that Coats is in trouble?  I read this site daily and don't remember seeing anything here or elsewhere suggesting Coats is in real trouble in the primary.

    I would love it if he lost to Hostetler, because Ellsworth could then bury Hostetler under an avalanche of ads.

    But I suspect if Coats loses, it would be to Stutzman.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    There
    was an internal poll. I think (not 100% sure though) it was commissioned by Coats as well. It has Coats with a three point lead over Hoss. Most tea party folks hate Coats with a passion. I know some who won't show up if Coats gets it. It is never a good idea to judge a race on one poll, but I still think the primary is a tossup. No but I do have to say shame on every pollster, for not polling this race.

    http://www.hoosieradvocate.com...

    P.S. Read the comments on the link. That should give you a good estimate of what I was talking about.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    [ Parent ]
    SUSA poll out tomorrow
    Supposedly, according to Erick Erickson (yeah, not the most unbiased source)
    Coats has soft support, but leads
    Undecideds are breaking towards Stutzman, which is odd, considering there was no previous poll to show who was undecided!

    [ Parent ]
    Can't you find that information
    by asking people when they made up their minds, and breaking down the data like that?  Is it necessary to have a previous poll to see where undecideds are breaking?

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

    [ Parent ]
    In Rasmussen's alternative Georgia
    Deal actually polls the best.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...


    Cat fud
    If I weren't an Atheist, I'd pray for a Deal-Oxendine runoff.  That would be insanely fun.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    In American Goddard beats Brewer
    In Rasmussen Russia, Brewer beats Goddard!

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Once again the difference between Ras and the rest is put on clear display.  PPP had Goddard up 3, Ras has Brewer up 8.  Their approval ratings gap are even bigger:  PPP has Brewer at 33%-46%, while Ras has her at 56%-42%.  

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    That survey blows me away
    The only way I can figure that Brewer could be doing better as a result of this racial profiling act being passed is that Arizona has a strong "States Rights" mentality similar to those in the Deep South.  

    I wouldn't bank too much on this survey.  I'd like to see how her numbers fluctuate with other polsters in the next few months.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04


    [ Parent ]
    Crist to run as Independent
    http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz...


    "Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

    Damn it.


    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    A good thing IMO
    A few reasons

    - I think Meeks has a better chance in a 3 way race.

    - A Crist victory would be better than a Rubio win.

    - It will drive the Teabaggers nuts.

    - I like  the idea of a candidate in between the two extremes. Hell if I lived in Florida I might vote for him.

    "Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


    [ Parent ]
    Correct on all 3 points, and we WANT a 3-way!!!......
    We're better off in a 3-way, period.  I've always believed Crist ultimately would draw more Republican votes than Democrats, because it's Republicans who've been in the habit for voting for him, and Democrats against him.  Even in 2006 the Democratic gubernatorial nominee (Jim Davis?) got something like 44%, which is good enough that he had to have cleaned up with Democrats.

    So I have to believe Crist only helps us, even if he ends up tanking and finishing 3rd which I think is ultimately likely.

    If Meek needs only 40% to win, he'll have a real shot at victory.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I do not recall a single poll showing Meek winning a three-way race.
    One on one against Rubio, however, Meek has been competitive.  And most three-way polls I remember show Rubio winning.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Yup
    That is what every poll I can remember showing.  We should root for him sticking it out in the primary.  But this is a lot more exciting anyway.  It has potential to really fluctuate.

    [ Parent ]
    While it has always been close three-way
    the key point is it will be utter carnage between Rubio and Crist for six months.  Meek could win simply by not looking like an asswipe like the other two certainy will.

    Also, if Meek collapses, Crist wins, which is also okay.

    Bottom line, Rubio's chances of winning just got to be less.


    [ Parent ]
    Oh certainly!
    Just come straight up the middle and win it just barely.  We've seen this happen in plenty of three-way races.  And especially considering the tea-baggers will have bad blood about Crist, it could be bad.  ::Grabs popcorn::  

    [ Parent ]

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