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NH-Gov: Lynch Up Double Digits But Under 50

by: Crisitunity

Fri Apr 23, 2010 at 1:10 PM EDT


PPP (4/17-18, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines) (primary numbers):

John Lynch (D-inc): 47
John Stephen (R): 36
Undecided: 18

John Lynch (D-inc): 47
Jack Kimball (R): 35
Undecided: 18

John Lynch (D-inc): 47
Karen Testerman (R): 29
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±2.6%)

John Stephen (R): 29
Karen Testerman (R): 15
Jack Kimball (R): 10
Undecided: 46
(MoE: ±3.9%)

As PPP's thorough visit to New Hampshire comes to a close, it looks like John Lynch, New Hampshire's three-term Democratic incumbent Governor going for a barely-precedented fourth term, is going to have a tougher race than was initially expected. Of course, that's all relative: the broadly popular Lynch has gotten accustomed to winning by huge margins (70-28 in 2008, 74-26 in 2006), and most pundits expected nothing different this year, so the fact that he's under 50 and looks like he'll have to put some effort in campaigning certainly amounts to "tougher."

I'd have chalked that up to the late entry to the race by John Stephen, a better candidate than was expected, to the extent that he's a former state Health and Human Services secretary and the guy who narrowly lost the 2008 GOP primary in NH-01 to Jeb Bradley. But Lynch fares pretty much identically against random businessman Jack Kimball, suggesting that declines in the Democratic brand in New Hampshire are rubbing off even on the redoubtable Lynch.
Crisitunity :: NH-Gov: Lynch Up Double Digits But Under 50
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NH-Gov: Lynch Up Double Digits But Under 50 | 24 comments
Jeez....
and Lynch used to be the only governor with 70% favorables not named Beebe or Hoeven.

In any other state, I wouldn't be too concerned, but this is New Hampshire. It's a lot more susceptible to political winds than most states, more blindly obsessed with tradition than pretty much all of them, and seems to delight in confounding conventional wisdom and delivering political upsets to whichever party takes it more for granted. Very few people counted on Carol Shea-Porter to beat Jeb Bradley in 2006 or on Lynch himself to beat Craig Benson in 2004. Nobody bet on statewide Dems picking up 70 seats to regain the state legislature for the first time in a century (even if the general court is so large that pretty much every field, stream, woodchuck hole, or guy living in a shack in the woods has their own state representative).

As far as I'm concerned, if Lynch keeps polling under 50 and Stephen wins the primary and starts running a decent campaign, we've got a real race on our hands. Our entire ballot could be a wash in NH this year if Dems keep taking the state for granted as much as the GOP did in the last decade. (I doubt CSP will lose because she does grassroots campaigning beautifully, but the Senate seat is looking farther away on a daily basis, and we've pretty much lost NH-02, at least until 2012 when they remember why they booted Bass in the first place and our likeliest candidate isn't named Swett.)

Not trying to spread doom and panic (I'm pretty bullish about a lot of other races, especially in the House), but I grew up in the state across the river from New Hampshire and I know their voting patterns a bit too well. Lynch better start working his ass off.  

Only in NH
Oct. 2004- Gov. Benson (R), Sens. Gregg (R) and Sununu (R), Reps. Bradley (R) and Bass (R), R's control both chambers of state legislature.

Nov. 2008- Gov. Lynch (D), Sens. Gregg (R) and Shaheen (D), Reps. Shea-Porter (D) and Hodes (D), D's control both chambers of state legislature.

Barely 4 years later, Gregg is the only red left in a sea of blue. By November 2010, there's a slight chance that Shaheen will be the only blue in a sea of red. i doubt that happens, but if it does, Democrats shouldn't worry too much, since the state is liable to swing right back a few years down the road. There's just no predicting that Granite state.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
the only reliable thing about new hampshire
is that their granite is inferior in both quality and quantity to vermont's

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
NH-02 is far from lost
Certainly a problem but if Lynch is in trouble under 50% so is Bass.
[ Parent ]
Bass isn't an incumbent
He is an ex-Congressman but it has been a few years since he has been in office.  
[ Parent ]
Semi
[ Parent ]
What is it with PPP
Finding such low favorables for everybody? Even Rasmussen has Lynch at 59% job approval.
I think PPP is making opposition with some polls
They are in a line worse than much blue dogs. They hate the Health Care Reform. They like not Obama, and like Romney. They are becoming obsessed telling NC-Sen race is competitive, but for the others all is bad.

If this is the level what PPP gives to J Lynch, I have reasons for doubt about the results for all other races. I think that mean Carol Shea-Porter looks so well for reelection in her close race, and the senate seat can be seat for fight hard until the last day.

This poll seems kidding us. If J Lynch wins only by 11% against no-name republicans, what would be against mid-level republicans like C Bass, and against high level republicans like J Sununu?

[ Parent ]
This is so ridiculous.
What is up with this conspiracy theory about PPP? Rasmussen I can understand especially since Scott Rasmussen does have that kind of background. But PPP? Come on. Dean Debnam has given thousands of dollars to Democratic candidates and Tom Jensen works for the ****ing Sierra Club.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yeah I agree
     I trust PPP out of probably all the polsters out there. They were very accurate during the 2008 election and they nailed the New Jersey and Massachusetts results. You know we can't just bash polls because we don't like the results.  
[ Parent ]
Absolutely
My point above was just about their low approval numbers. Their toplines are very accurate.
[ Parent ]
About PPP
Just I'm making a chart of rating for all senate + governor + house + statewide offices, and one of the elements what I take in consideration the last poll.

I take the four last (as maximum) polls for every race, excluding only all Rasmussen polls, for calculate the expected value of difference for the key numbers from the four (as maximum) polls. That make me see what are the no-Rasmussen polls more divergent and far of the expected value for every race.

This are the results. This are the worst no-Rasmussen polls for dems:

1.- NH-Gov: +11%D Key value .. +28.50%D Expected value .. - 17.50%D Difference .. by PPP
2.- IL-Gov: - 10%D Key value .. +5.75%D Expected value .. - 15.75%D Difference .. by PPP
3.- AR-Sen: - 23%D Key value .. - 10.50%D Expected value .. - 12.50%D Difference .. by PPP
4.- AL-Gov: - 13%D Key value .. - 1.50%D Expected value .. - 11.50%D Difference .. by PPP
5.- IL-Sen: - 12%D Key value .. - 1.50%D Expected value .. - 10.50%D Difference .. by Magellan Data and MS (R)
6.- PA-Gov: - 24%D Key value .. - 13.75%D Expected value .. - 10.25%D Difference .. by Muhlenberg College (R?)
7.- WI-Gov: - 16%D Key value .. - 6.25%D Expected value .. - 9.75%D Difference .. by St Norbert College (R?)

For the case of AL-Gov race, I can understand better the difference, because the previous polls are from months before, but for the other races the differences are not logical.

I see some PPP polls what are worse for democrats by large than the polls from Susquehanna, We Ask America or Survey USA. I would not tell that without numerical support. I know not the reasons what move PPP but I see not R2K, Greenberg or Quinnipiac polls in the list. I see only the numbers.

[ Parent ]
And for you can understand better I explain you the operation for IL-Gov.

For IL-Gov race the last four no-Rasmussen polls are these:

4/24-26/09 by PPP
2/4-7/10 by Victory Research
2/22-24/10 by R2K
4/1-5/10 by PPP

The key values for these polls are:

+7% for Quinn (D) by PPP
+11% for Quinn (D) by Victory Research
+15% for Quinn (D) by R2K
- 10% for Quinn (D) by PPP (athipical value)

The expected value for these four polls is:

+5.75% for Quinn (D) over Brady (R)

Difference between the athipical value from last PPP poll:

- 15.75% unfavorable for Quinn (D)

----------------------------------------------------------

If we see the last four no-Rasmussen for IL-Gov, the athipical value is the last PPP poll. Why? Quinn really lost 25% over Brady in less than 40 days since the R2K poll?

This PPP poll only agree with the last Rasmussen polls:

- 10% unfavorable for Quinn (D) the 3/8/10
- 7% unfavorable for Quinn (D) the 4/5/10

[ Parent ]
ok
they have a house effect, that's great. Where does this mean they have an agenda?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I will not compare PPP with Rasmussen
I directly exclude Rasmussen because their numbers distort all the overview.

But I have the same evidence about a Rasmussen agenda than about a PPP agenda. In both cases, I only talk looking to the numbers what they make public and looking to their comments, what I read habitually (well, now I read not Rasmussen).

Without Rasmussen numbers the four worst polls for dems in last time for all federal and statewide races comes from PPP. This is an evidence what mean PPP is not generous with dems. Sometimes PPP is making good the numbers of pure republican pollsters like Susquehanna, We Ask America (see PA-12), and others.

And from their comments is not difficult see PPP hate especially the Health Care Reform, and like not Obama. The words are differents when they talk about NC-Sen race than about many other races. And I see worse words about Obama than about Romney. I think they are making opposition with their numbers and with their comments.

That is what I see. Is that an agenda? Maybe, or maybe not.

[ Parent ]
House effect
does not mean bias. and PPP's numbers are nowhere near as ridiculous as Rasmussen's in some races. and I have no clue what you're talking about with their comments somehow revealing their secret hatred for HCR/Obama.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I think I was one of first in denounce the Rasmussen numbers as totally biased in SSP, with Spiderdem and someone more

Hoosierdem tell what Rasmussen is a PINO (Pollster only in name). I agree. I'm not telling the same about PPP, because Rasmussen and PPP are differents, but that mean not some numbers from PPP become especially hard for democrats some times. And in the other extreme, in the extreme of the best polls for dems they are not polls from PPP. I can write easily the equivalent box, is very short, and no-one pollster more have two athipical results including the best and the worst results for dems. Only PPP, what has four athipical polls.

I think this is not only a House effect. Im talking about polls with more than a 15% of difference with the other no-Rasmussen polls for the same race, including the polls of republican pollsters. Taking in consideration the last four no-Rasmussen poll as maximum:

For NH-Gov race the minimum difference between the athipical poll from PPP and the other no-Rasmussen pollsters (R2K) is a 35%.

For IL-Gov race, the minimum difference between the athipical poll from PPP and the other no-Rasmussen pollsters (other previous poll from PPP) is a 17%.

For AR-Sen race, the minimum difference between the athipical poll from PPP and the other no-Rasmussen pollsters (R2K) is a 15%.

About the comments the best is what you read the blog of Public Policy Polling. Sure you will see this details what I explain you.

[ Parent ]
I do not have the time
to go through PPP's entire blog archive to search for this supposed trashing of Obama and HCR, nor do I really need to since if you consider Jensen and Debnam's personal background it is obvious that they are Democrats. Your evidence seems to be limited to "well they have better numbers for Republicans" but that's not enough. It's just unfair to slander a pollster on the basis of flimsy evidence. (For that matter, though I think something is up with Rasmussen, I do not think that they are deliberately tweaking the numbers.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Many
liberals oppose HCR, see FireDogLake for proof. I don't know if Jensen or Debnam do or not. I'm not trying to take sides in this by any means. I'm just pointing that out, that's all.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Debnam
if you look at the list of candidates he has donated to, they're mostly (or all? can't remember) in NC. Now I admit to knowing nothing about NC politics but NC being NC, I doubt any of those politicians are Dennis Kucinich. nor does Tom Jensen write anything that suggests he is that far out, even on his personal blog.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
My Own NH Theory
As politics got nationalized and polarized, and as the national GOP was pushing hawkish foreign policy and emphasizing the concerns of cultural conservatism, the Republican brand took a big hit in NH. That stuff, regardless of what the Union-Leader thinks, doesn't sell well in the Granite State at all. Throw in a guy like Craig Benson as Governor and you've got a recipe for big Dem gains.

However, New Hampshirites still really hate taxes and are still conditioned to respond favorably to claims that government is the problem rather than the solution.  It's not a message that works all that well for a party that controls the levers of power, especially in their case because they were so clearly talking the talk without walking the walk. But for a party out of power....different story.

To the extent that an election cycle centers on the active role of government in helping level playing fields and lessen the role of profit-seeking entities, this isn't a state or an electorate that's likely to be of much help to us. I think this is why we're seeing some lost ground here.

It may not be this way forever, though...Vermont had a similar political makeup to New Hampshire once upon a time.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

Except Vermont became a destination
for many rich liberals to move to so they could live in artist and organic food enclaves. Vermont reminds me a lot more of far western Mass than most of New Hampshire.  
[ Parent ]
Sorta like
the northern coast of California (basically CA-01), a destination for eco-conscious San Francisco liberals to experience a more open setting, thanks to them went from strong Republican in the mid-20th century to swing in the 90s to strong Democratic now, so the region has more in common with western WA and OR than with the counties just to it's east, with many organic, artsy, pot-growing areas.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
burlington is called
"The west coast of new england" they actually used tax payer $ for that.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
NH-Gov: Lynch Up Double Digits But Under 50 | 24 comments

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