GA-09: Lone Dem withdraws from special and general elections.

http://daltondailycitizen.com/...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 12:19:57 PM UTC

'Nother Georgia update

I don't recall seeing SSP update on GA-07.  2008 Democratic nominee Doug Heckman is in: http://www.onlineathens.com/st...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 12:22:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Quinnipiac FL

Rubio (R) v. Crist (R) = Rubio 56-33
Rubio (R) v. Meek (D) = Rubio 42-38
Rubio (R) v. Crist (I) v. Meek (D) = Crist 32-Rubio 30-Meek 24

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 12:32:08 PM UTC

Meek's numbers among Dems are kinda pathetic when Crist is in the mix

That said, I could see a Meek/Rubio race potentially being Lean GOP. Which, is better than the Solid-to-Likely projection I've been sticking with as of late.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 13:15:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting Numbers

A few months of heightening the contradictions could change those numbers a lot. In what direction who knows....

Crist is not a Democrat, is not a liberal or a progressive, and only qualifies as a moderate when compared to the loud teabag circus currently running the GOP around in circles.

Florida is tough in that it's a relatively conservative state with a liberal Democratic primary electorate, sort of the mirror image of Washington or Oregon where you've got a more liberal than average general electorate but GOP primaries that turn into wingnut one-upsmanship.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 15:40:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meek would consolidate Dems in a 3-way, and Crist would crash......

I share what's become a common view that 3-way trial heats right now don't show where Crist would really be on election day, because once he announces as an indy he starts to crash and burn.  Meek will consolidate Dems, Rubio will consolidate Rethugs, and Crist on election day probably winds up, shockingly for a sitting Governor who was his state party's leader, in Alan Schlesinger (CT-Sen 2006 for those of you with too short a memory) territory.  The only question would be whether Crist as a 3rd wheel hurts Rubio more or hurts Meek more.  I think the answer is Crist hurts Rubio more, because his most personally loyal base consists of Republicans, while Democrats don't have a history of supporting him--it was not that big a blowout in 2006 FL-Gov, after all.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 17:53:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Crist just vetoed a noxious Republican-sponsored

education bill.  Will be an interesting few weeks to see if Charlie indeed switches to Indy pefore 4/30.  This suggests he might.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

---

by: spiderdem @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 16:23:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wish he'd run as indy, but I bet he drops out, hurting Meek & us......

No one is suggesting Crist will simply hang it up.  And maybe there's something to that, because if he was contemplating any such thing out loud with anyone in his political circles, the media would have gotten ahold of it by now.

But yet I can't help but think if he really starts to seriously second-guess staying in the GOP primary, and sits down and considers his options, he's more likely to simply drop out than run as an indy.  I have to think he and his people recognize he'd have at least a tough a slog as a 3rd wheel as he's having against Rubio, that cobbling together a plurality that outnumbers both major parties' base vote is not something he's any more likely to pull off than beating Rubio in the primary.  And early polling on the 3-way that shows Crist competitive isn't necessarily any more reliable than the early polling that showed Crist destroying Rubio in the primary......this, too, I would think Crist or someone close to him would be savvy enough to recognize.

That's why I fear Crist will simply drop out and endorse Rubio, or maybe not endorse at all, but either way it hurts Meek and hands the seat to Rubio.  I really think we need Crist to hammer Rubio with every possible debilitating attack this spring and summer, basically as a way of doing some of Meek's dirty work for him so that Meek can focus more resources on self-defining.  Meek's fundraising is barely adequate for a race this tough in a state this big, so he needs the help.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 17:59:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meek's fundraising is decent enough

and hell, a Meek vs Rubio race this early will make Rubio run to the center earlier in the campaign season.  Crist does extremely well against Meek in match-ups but Rubio vs Meek, if you ignore Rasmussen, polls extremely competitively.  I wonder if that's because Rubio is being seen as a tea-bagger and a hard-righty.  If that's the case, he'll have to move to the center in a visible way, which would earn him the anger of the tea-baggers.

This is one race I really dont want to predict on anything on.  I could see Meek whomping Rubio and painting him as an out of touch tea-bagger.  Wait til we see the picket signs at rallies with Meek's name on them and some sort of racial remark.  Voters aren't too happy with the Democrats right now but they still dont still dislike extremism more.  (Which is why I think Ellsworth will be fine.)

---

by: Andrew @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 19:10:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A Meek win by even one vote would be a sizeable upset......

It's an anti-Democratic year, Rubio is charismatic and has learned the ropes of high-profile campaigning after a rocky start, and Meek is black (yes that still matters and is requires him to work harder, even after Florida and America elected a black President).  And while Meek's fundraising can be called "decent," it's no more than that.  I read one reasonable analysis that said he needs to spend probably around $16 million, about 4 times more than he's banked so far, and what he's banked has come while he's had a clear field on the Democratic side (his rivals past and present for the nomination have had zero oxygen and don't count).

The one thing I am confident about is that we won't see Meek winning by, say, 10 points in November, not even if the economy and job growth move forward faster than most observers seem to think they will.  If Meek wins, it will be by a razor's edge.

Rubio could beat him by 10, but not the other way around.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 20:14:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fundraising numbers

Deadline is today, of course. Here are some early-morning filers:

DE-AL:

John Carney (D) - $253k raised, $675k on hand

HI-01:

Charles Djou (R) - $298k raised, $492k on hand

IN-08:

Trent VanHaaften (D) - $166k raised, $146k on hand

IN-09:

Mike Sodrel (R) - $177k raised, $110k on hand

MA-10:

William Keating (D) - $123k raised, $121k on hand

MD-01:

Andy Harris (R) - $315k raised, $704k on hand

MI-01:

Connie Saltonstall (D) - $105k raised + $15k loan, $120k on hand

NJ-09 (yeah, seriously):

John Aslanian (R) - $3k + $250k loan, $208k on hand

NM-01:

Martin Heinrich (D) - $300k raised, $1.04m on hand

NY-04:

Frank Scaturro (R) - $99k raised, $184k on hand

NY-18:

Paul Stuart Wasserman (R) - $73k raised + $181k loans, $230k on hand

NY-20:

Chris Gibson (R) - $108k raised, $92k on hand

NY-25:

Ann Buerkle (R) - $102k raised + $15k loans, $102k on hand

OH-12:

Pat Tiberi (R) - $368k raised, $1.5m on hand

PA-10:

Chris Carney (D) - $235k raised, $665k on hand

SC-05:

John Spratt (D) - $207k raised, $824k on hand

SD-AL:

Chris Nelson (R) - $34k raised, $44k on hand (I generally ignore challengers that raise less than six figures a quarter, but this is the guy Scott has tied with Herseth-Sandlin!)

UT-02:

Morgan Philpot (R) - $15k raised, $7k on hand (and this is supposed to be the frontrunner to take on Jim Matheson.)

VA-02:

Scott Rigell (R) - $408k raised, $620k on hand

VA-10:

Jeff Barnett (D) - $127k raised, $95k on hand

WA-03:

Denny Heck (D) - $204k raised + $150k loan, $532k on hand

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 12:34:19 PM UTC

KS-4

Raj Goyle raised over $300K and has about $814K CoH

22, male, VA-10

---

by: Bharat @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 16:01:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Goyle is a machine

Seriously, he could to outraise all of his opponents combined.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

---

by: arealmlc @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 17:10:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MD-1 and VA-2

Those are worrying numbers.

---

by: armand @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 16:03:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MD-01

The thinking around Baltimore is that MD-01 is as good as gone. If memory serves, it's an R+13 district, and this is shaping up to be an anti-incumbent, anti-Democrat midterm cycle, with a well-funded Republican.

It'll suck having that obnoxious oxygen thief Andy Harris in the state's delegation. He'll be good for some laughs I suppose but little else; even by the standards of the minority in Annapolis he's a pretty ineffective legislator.

The good news is that there's a good chance he's a one-termer. For more info on this see any of about a dozen redistricting diaries posted here over the last several months detailing plans, most of which are dedicated in large part to keeping him off Capitol Hill.  


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 16:56:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I will agree that MD-1 is almost definitely going Red

in November. However, I don't think that they will try to get Harris out of Congress. It is possible to have safe Dem incumbents and eliminate Harris but the only way that happens is by violating the VRA. Trying to endanger Harris means putting Dutch, Sarbanes, and, to a lesser degree, Hoyer in swingy territory. I think that MD Dems will play it safe and stick to the 6-2 delegation advantage until 2020.  

---

by: Jfindl1 @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 17:22:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

7-1 : Easy

Making something that naturally trends towards 7-1 is actually pretty easy. I need to go ahead and publish that diary...soon as work lets up a little, I swear...but nonetheless there are other diaries that have covered this too.

Trying to go for 8-0 is when you're either risking a dummymander or drawing something non-VRA compliant.

There are two pieces of MD-01 west of the Bay, both of them more Republican than the Shore is...but it's pretty easy to split them three or four ways, and it's not like those places form any sort of coherent community in the first place, given that the the two of them aren't especially near each other.

Alternatively, you could keep MD-01 the way it is now and go after MD-06 instead, essentially turning it into a situation where half its voters are from MoCo....but it seems better to try for a district where a region's tendency towards wanting one of their own as a representative could be used to your advantage.

(Also, both Harris and Dutch, last time I checked, live in Cockeysville, which is a little awkward.)  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 17:58:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So you are going to gut the R+13 district turning it Democratic while

simultaneously not weakening the 2nd (D+6) and 3rd (D+7)? I don't buy it, not without splitting up the Eastern Shore and/or mixing DC and Baltimore suburbs to level that has not been yet. The legislature will not go for a plan that splits up the Shore or too heavily mixes the 2 separate suburbs. Also this assumes an O'Malley victory for governor, which is likely but not a slam dunk.  

---

by: Jfindl1 @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 18:47:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

You don't need to split the Shore at all. (Though you'd get slightly better results for MD-01 if you removed either all of Cecil County or just the Perryville/Port Deposit/Rising Sun portion of Cecil; Cecil is only marginally part of the Shore, and the northern and western stretches near I-95 and/or US-1 are even more peripheral in their Shore-itude.)

The main trick, as you may have guessed, involved something about all the wasted votes in Montgomery County.

As for mixing the suburbs...that ship has sailed. The 3rd already has both Columbia (Howard) and Odenton/Crofton (Anne Arundel) and while those places might have 410 area codes, both are already much more DC-focused than Baltimore-focused. It's telling that the morning Baltimore traffic reports don't even bother talking about the major roads down there during rush hour; they focus almost entirely on Baltimore-bound traffic from the north and/or east.

If Sarbanes the Younger ever wants statewide office, he's going to need to introduce himself to Montgomery County anyway. (And yes, you can keep Towson, where Sarbanes lives, and Pikesville in the 3rd while doing all this.)

Obviously, this is all predicated on a O'Malley win, as Ehrlich would much prefer to protect his boy Harris.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 20:12:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Howard and Anne Arundel are both Baltimore suburbs

They are both in the Baltimore MSA and are tilt more culturally toward Baltimore than Washington. I don't know where you get the idea that Baltimore stations don't show traffic coming from the South and West, I really don't. I live in the Baltimore Metro, I assume you do as well given your amount of knowledge of it, and I can tell you Baltimore area politicians would hate the idea of mixing in areas of DC into "their territory."

---

by: Jfindl1 @ Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 03:13:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not Anymore

Because MSAs classify entire counties the same way, they miss a lot.

The only Baltimore-centric parts of Howard County are the Ellicott City and Elkridge sections. By the time you get to the middle of Columbia, to say nothing of North Laurel, you're talking about areas where most commuters are going to DC (assuming they're not staying in Columbia), get the Post rather than the Sun, and pay little attention to what happens in B'more. This wasn't necessarily true 20 years ago, but it's the case now.

Anne Arundel is a little more complicated. The northern part nearest Baltimore is definitely in the Baltimore orbit, and the Annapolis area does get its TV from Baltimore more than DC. But the western bulge by Fort Meade I was referring to is DC all the way. The Odenton train station during morning rush hour is telling. On the northbound side towards Baltimore there's barely anyone waiting on the platform and there's plenty of room on the trains; it's a very different story going south to DC.

The dominant theme here is that DC's metro area is growing and casting a bigger shadow, and that Baltimore's isn't.
In terms of reapportionment, the practical upshot is that Baltimore risks losing clout. It obviously hasn't gotten to the point where a whole CD gets moved from one metro to the other, but there's a lot of surplus population in DC suburbia.

Not to mention that these people, as I said, often have statewide office ambitions. In a statewide Democratic primary you're starting off with a huge disadvantage if no one in Montgomery County knows who you are, especially if you're facing a scenario where a possible opponent can lock down Prince George's and Baltimore City.    

Suppose you're a Congresscritter from the B'more area. Would having, say, 100K or 150K MoCo or PG residents really be the worst thing in the world? Assuming you're a Democrat, they're going to default in your direction, much more so than whoever you'd have to add from somewhere else. And that's not enough base for a primary challenge from down there, especially considering how many of those people are transplants with no ties to any existing political cliques; Baltimore-based pols would have an advantage even in an open-seat primary scenario. And an incumbent would already be representing a decent number of DC-oriented people as it is, before you even get to the people who live in Baltimore but commute to DC.

I suppose Baltimore pols might be parochial enough, and that's not a factor to be underestimated, that they'd rather endure a decade of Andy Harris' Special Order orations on C-SPAN, try to screw the Eastern Shore over, or draw a true dummymander. But man, what a missed opportunity that would be.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 13:11:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not Considering

that a former chairman of the Virginia Beach GOP running in the primary dropped out and is now running as a teabagger independent.  

---

by: jwaalk @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 17:23:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't see Kenny Golden as having any significant impact

He hadn't raised any money and he has absolutely no presence here. I'm hard-pressed to name any of the candidates aside from Rigell, Ben Loyola, and Scott Taylor, and I'm an elections junkie that lives in the district.

Also, being chairman of the Virginia Beach Republican Party doesn't seem to mean anything. Chuck Smith was another former chairman, and he dropped out after raising literally hundreds of dollars a quarter. And now he's running in the 3rd against Bobby Scott.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 22:56:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

On VA-02, I figured Nye is a goner anyway......

Nye has a real problem in that, as a freshman with no base of personally loyal voters, he's voted "no" on every high-profile Democratic initiative, going into a midterm in which nothing else is on the ballot so he needs the base to show up just for him.  That's not a position you want to be in, and Nye hasn't played it smart at all.

Perriello actually has a much better shot at reelection because by voting "yes" on the major stuff, the Democratic base is motivated to fight for him and show up and vote.

I will bet everything that whether Perriello wins or loses this November, he outperforms Nye, even though Nye's is a more Democratic-friendly district.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 19:06:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interestingly Enough

Virginia Beach has been Republican-friendly for a long time, whereas Southside Virginia has only (relatively) recently turned away from yellow dog Democrats.

The upshot of this is that the GOP bench in VA-05 much weaker than you'd think it ought to be and a tendency to perhaps help local Democrats win races. (Although Team Blue's guy is from Charlottesville, which is probably a handicap down in the southern part of the district for obvious reasons.)

Not that any of this would be enough to save a weak incumbent in a bad year, but a motivated enough base might be enough.  


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 20:18:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looking closer, it wasn't as strong as you might think

Rigell actually only raised $135k, the other $273k was self-funding. And he spent $288k, so only about $120k of his total receipts for the quarter are left over. He's probably spending heavily to win big in the primary, even though his opposition isn't very strong.

Still not good news in MD-01, though. Kratovil had the benefit of outraising Harris 2-1 in 2008.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 23:00:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Louisiana House votes to return Congressional elections to the jungle primary in 2012

http://www.nola.com/politics/i...

If they wanted to save money, they could, you know, eliminate primary runoffs instead.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 12:41:09 PM UTC

Not a fan of returning to that system

As the article notes it puts Louisiana at a disadvantage since the winners will be decided later.  Though if we'd used in in 2008 we could have won LA-2 and LA-6 (though I'm very glad Jefferson lost in LA-2).  


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

---

by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 14:57:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

and LA-4 too

---

by: smoltchanov @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 15:12:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Shouldn't the title of this diary be

"SSP Daily Digest: 4/15 (Morning Edition)"?

---

by: emilysdad @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 12:45:48 PM UTC

Perhaps someone here wants to think it's a month before Tax Day....

(Coffee party snark....)

---

by: tietack @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 13:35:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WI-Sen "Kanavas may run if Thompson does not"

http://www.wigderson.com/index...

Ted, a retiring State Senator, is 'movement conservative.'

He should change his name first. Announcing that he'd oppose our medical marijuana bill a few months ago , he said it would "send the wrong message to our youth. What message would his yard signs send? That his ancestors were Cannabis farmers? (Kanavas is an archaic spelling.)

---

by: Ben Masel @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 12:45:50 PM UTC

Don Cazayoux

is a great guy, it was a real shame what happened to him.  Hopefully he gets swift confirmation, but that is doubtful.  

---

by: rockymmdreamin @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 13:33:07 PM UTC

Yeah

I agree. It was because of that moronic independent candidate who shall remain nameless. Ick!

---

by: jsrosa @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 14:53:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wanna Be Startin' Somethin?

Don't stop 'til you get enough.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

---

by: Answer Guy @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 15:33:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He thought

 He would win because it would matter to some voters that he was black and not white. If he had beat it, I bet Cazayoux would have won.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

17, CA-06,  

---

by: Alibguy @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 16:24:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Darn right

Don would have won.  MJ was in bed with the repubs on that one.

---

by: rockymmdreamin @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 18:00:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He definetly was

Someone after the '08 election on Kos posted pictures of Michael Jackson meeting with Bill Csssidy (dressed in doctors scrubs) outside of a coffee shop. Yep Don got the screw job.

I'm glad the President nominated him, good for you Don.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

---

by: Daylin Bradley-Byak @ Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 01:11:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I asked this elsewhere, but no-one answered it

Is Don Cazayoux well qualified to be a judge? What's his legal experience?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 07:24:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

From Wikipedia article about him:

"After finishing his studies, Cazayoux practiced law and then became a prosecutor for Pointe Coupee Parish. As an Assistant District Attorney under 18th Judicial District Attorney, Richard "Ricky" Ward, he never lost a jury trial."

So he has some...

---

by: smoltchanov @ Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 08:25:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Now that's what I'm talking about

Obama should be using the US Attorney jobs to reward his friends and punish his enemies, the way other Presidents have done since George Washington's time. Next he needs to sack a couple of enemies in Alabama and Mississippi who were deeply involved in political prosecutions of Siegelman and Minor. Meanwhile this appointment helps to keep a qualified white guy on our bench, to frustrate the Repubs efforts to cast the Democrats as the party of the blacks in Dixie.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 20:05:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CT-Sen

That is pretty worrisome.  Knowing when you actually need to debate an opponent is pretty much Campaign Managing 101.

---

by: Andrew @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 14:00:33 PM UTC

thank goodness it's April

This can be fixed.

---

by: Adam B. @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 14:07:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Some of these things

seem hard to fix, but I hope he gets an intensive intervention...

---

by: James L. @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 17:46:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm worried

Last night I reread the Boston article in which Coakley infamously talked about not shaking hands in the rain.

This article sounds eerily similar - a strong Republican campaign could just blast him with it.

http://mypolitikal.com/

---

by: Inoljt @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 18:13:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree, time is on his side, plus the warning of Coakley......

The Coakley comparison helps in this case if Blumenthal has the sense to admit a problem when it's pointed out to him and then do what it takes to fix it.  It's a looooong time to the election, and the Rethugs still have no clue who their nominee will be.  We just need Blumenthal to get his act together over the spring and summer.

Also, Blumenthal is different from Coakley in the important respect that he's been around a long time and has deeper personal popularity than she did.  Yes he could still squander that with a bad campaign, but he's starting off on better footing than she did.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 19:11:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Still say Coakley's biggest problem

Was not campaigning in December. It allowed Brown to define himself and by the time she woke to the problem it was too late.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 22:21:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree completely, and that supports my point...

...that Blumenthal has time on his side, in that he can easily right the ship.  After all, he's still up by huge margins in all polls, breaking 50 and leading by significant double-digit margins in even the worst of them.  That should remain the case for quite awhile still, so he's got time to fix it all.  Just being told "you're like Coakley!" should be irritating enough to spur action.  Coakley wasn't alone in taking her victory for granted, everyone did that, so no one except the Massachusetts Democratic blogosphere and perhaps a few other ignored voices was trying to wake her up.

Ultimately I agree if Coakley didn't go on vacation, if she ran a basically competent general election campaign, then she wins.  It still would have been too close for comfort because of the anti-Democratic environment, probably mid-to-high single digits, but she would have survived.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

---

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 01:46:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

actually

I think, assuming the motives behind the move are the same reason I like the idea, that debating Alpert was a good idea.  

Alpert doesn't stand much of a chance against Blumnethal in the primary so even if Blumenthal does terrible in any debates he has, he should still win.  

The point behind it would be to get better at it.  If I hadn't had a close race in as long s Blumenthal has, I'd use a no namer primary challenger to my advantage to get the rust off and find out where my campaign is lacking.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

---

by: skywrnchsr509 @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 15:18:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

I'm glad he has a primary opponent, and I'm glad he's debating him. A real competitor sharpens him up, and his team too.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 20:00:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does Bunning's endorsement make a difference?

On the one hand, he is fairly unpopular (which is the reason he's retiring in the first place), but on the other he is still the incumbent GOP Senator. His approval ratings among Republicans might shed some light, but we really want to know what his effect on undecided GOP primary voters is. I'm guessing that they're likely to be lower information vote. What would a low information voter's opinion of Bunning be? Are his troubles that well known?  

---

by: Nichlemn @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 15:29:33 PM UTC

Depends on common knowledge

For those within KY that now fully understand that Bunning is an old curmudgeon, this endorsement will do Rand Paul no good...if anything, it might hurt Paul.  For those who don't understand Bunning's state of mind and take his endorsement seriously, it might help Paul marginally.

This endorsement is probably a wash.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 16:15:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think it matters b/c other factors are so dominant......

Paul has just been crushing Greyson already for quite awhile, and now it's getting late, making Bunning's endorsement largely irrelevant at this stage.  It's not much different from Rudy Giuliani endorsing Rubio over Crist long after everyone else did and Rubio already had taken over the driver's seat.

And the other big factor that overshadows Bunning's endorsement is that Greyson has just run such a terrible campaign.  I think it's really a disastrous mistake for Greyson to try to argue "Rand blames America for 9/11" and similar over-the-top crap.  It just sounds too over-the-top and desperate......becuase it is.  Rand is not quite as nutty as his dad, or oterhwise as nutty as many people seem to think; he's much closer to mainstream conservatism than Ron.  There's stuff in Rand's belief system that can be attacked in a Republican primary, but it ought to be done in a more conventional way, such as attacking Paul's view on military restraint (shared by his dad in that case) as undermining national security and risking more terrorism on U.S. soil.  I think that would sell better.  But at this point I think it might be too late anyway.

I had worried about Conway on our side having the same problems as Greyson, but he seems to be getting traction more recently and has a real chance to beat Mongiardo.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 19:18:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the Rudy endorsement matters more b/c

a lot of Floridians are snowbirds from New York and Rudy is well liked. Bunning had like a 30% approval rating in the last poll I saw, a while ago, and that has probably plummeted w/ the whole blocking unemployment benefits idea.  

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by: Jfindl1 @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 19:37:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well 30% approval statewide means 90% among GOP primary voters......

Those 30%, or even if it were just 20%, all like Bunning just fine.  I'm sure there are plenty of them who recognize much of Kentucky feels differently and, therefore, their party is better off with Bunning having decided to retire.  But that doesn't translate to these primary voters themselves disapproving of Bunning.  They like him just fine, and to the extent some of them are influenced at all by an endorsement, his helps.

That said, as I noted, Bunning is late to the party anyway.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 20:18:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

KS-02

I'm not bullish on his prospects, but teabag-friendly state Sen. Dennis Pyle is primarying Republican Lynn Jenkins from the right.

http://cjonline.com/news/local...

FYI- Dems still don't have a particularly strong candidate, although rural community banker Cheryl Hudspeth is now at least in the race.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 15:35:32 PM UTC

Check out Hudspeth's Facebook if you want to laugh

She reminds me of that short-lived coffee-shop owner candidate in Indiana.  Fail.
That being said, I worked with Galen Weiland in 2008, and even though he was a poor candidate and didn't campaign hardly at all in Atchison (the D-base of the St-Sen-1st), Pyle performed pretty poorly in Doniphan and Brown counties.  These are R-base counties where Republicans go to win primaries.  Low-info voters in Leavenworth, Topeka, and Manhattan don't vote in R-primaries, but will vote R in the general; the r-primary votes are in Doniphan, Brown, Jefferson, and Pittsburg.  Pyle is going to get trounced in these places.
I'm still holding out for a Marti Crow candidacy (D-st house-41st, Leavenworth).  Either her, ex-rep Candi Ruff (40th-Leavenworth-Lansing), or Jerry Henry (63rd-Atchison).  Any of these guys could turn this one into a barn-burner.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

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by: 707stuckinKCMO @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 22:59:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CT - Sen

We got Dodd out and now we have a wiener. Do we?

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by: fai calif @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 17:00:16 PM UTC

The NYT called him

"Coakley in pants." Yikes!

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04...

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by: Jfindl1 @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 17:24:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LA-3: pretty good fundraising by Democrat Ravi Sangisetty

Hotline has a good round up of today's fundraising reports (http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/04/thursday_fundra_2.php). The one that struck out to me was Sangisetty: he raised $215K last quarter and has $375K on hand.

While I wouldn't call it jaw-dropping it's pretty good for a seat most Democrats have written off.  Sangisetty is definitly the underdog but it looks like he may bear some watching.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

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by: Darth Jeff @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 17:31:20 PM UTC

Liberal Blogs Way Too Pessimistic About Our Senate Chances

We're gonna lose Delaware and North Dakota.

We're gonna hold everywhere else and gain Ohio, Kentucky, Florida and New Hampshire.

We stand an outside chance of losing Illinois.

Which would put us back at...60!

Wow, I'm good.

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by: Zeitgeist9000 @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 18:48:26 PM UTC

did you just take a ganja break?

n/t

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by: Jfindl1 @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 18:56:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ed Case in his own words on why he can't be trusted.

Case was asked by the Honolulu Advertiser to state why
people should vote for him.  He called himself a moderate independent Democrat:

Independent because I reject allegiance to or control by any party or person or special interests and believe my only obligation is to all the people.

http://www.honoluluadvertiser....

He rejects allegiance to any party?  This guy could switch parties at the drop of a hat if he thought it would further his political career.  Yet the DCCC can't get enough of him.

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by: DCal @ Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 19:41:38 PM UTC