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SSP Daily Digest: 4/9 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Fri Apr 09, 2010 at 3:05 PM EDT


KY-Sen: AG Jack Conway has a new ad up in the Democratic primary, hitting Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo for $57K in luxury travel on the taxpayer dime. That might get some attention, but a potentially more interesting story is about decidedly non-luxurious accommodations: Mongiardo has been staying with his in-laws while he's on the job in Frankfort. The problem with that? He's still taking his $30K/yr. housing stipend despite not needing to spend it.

AZ-Gov: Maricopa Sheriff Joe Arpaio is getting kind of like the boy who cried wolf, in terms of his constant expressions of interest in running for Governor that never pan out (the 77-year-old Arpaio been doing so for more than a decade). He's back in the news today saying he's looking into the costs of a petition drive, just in case he decides he wants to run this year.

IL-Gov: If your fellow Republican is publicly criticizing you for being too extreme, you're probably doing it wrong. Moderate ex-Gov. Jim Edgar (the last Illinois governor to finish his term without the law hot on his heels, and a Kirk Dillard backer in this year's primary) smacked down state Sen. Bill Brady, saying instead that raising taxes (as Pat Quinn plans to do) is the only way out of the state's budget mess.

MN-Gov: State House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher got a key union endorsement today, from hotel union UNITE HERE. She's lining up the institutional pieces for the DFL endorsement, which will happen later this month.

PA-Gov: Ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel got the endorsement of Planned Parenthood in the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania. (With Hoeffel and state Sen. Anthony Williams the only pro-choice candidates in the field, it probably wasn't a very tough decision.)

HI-01: The DCCC has been hitting Charles Djou for signing the Grover Norquist/Americans for Tax Reform no-tax pledge, although they're doing so in a roundabout way: they're saying Djou signed a pledge "that protects tax breaks for companies that send jobs overseas" (as the pledge requires opposing the end of any deductions or credits). If the message gets some traction in this testing ground, expect to see more of it in November.

MN-06: Aubrey Immelman is back. The college professor who ran against Michele Bachmann in the GOP primary in 2008 will try again in 2010, saying "I am a single-issue candidate. That is to defeat Michele Bachmann." He hasn't said whether he'll run in the GOP primary again, though, or as an indie in the general (where he'd bump up against IP candidate Bob Anderson).

ND-AL: In the wake of strong numbers from Republican opponent state Rep. Rick Berg, Earl Pomeroy released his own numbers today, and they're good too. Pomeroy raised $407K (to Berg's $483K), but Pomeroy's big advantage is in cash on hand; he's sitting on $1.6 million.

NY-20: Scott Murphy also posted good fundraising numbers today, as he gears up to face Republican Chris Gibson, who's only beginning his campaign. Murphy raised $475K last quarter, and has $1.1 million CoH.

OR-05: Here's a race where I didn't even know cat fud was a-flyin'. But if his own poll is to believed, it looks like teabagger Fred Thompson (no, not the former presidential candidate) could steal the nomination from prized NRCC recruit state Rep. Scott Bruun (who's from the moderate suburban wing of the GOP that used to actually be able to win elections in Oregon). Thompson has a poll from GOP pollster John Feliz showing him leading Bruun by 2% (although specific numbers don't seem forthcoming). Either one would have an uphill fight against Rep. Kurt Schrader in the general.

VA-09: One other fundraising highlight from today sees Rep. Rick Boucher girding for a likely battle against GOP state House majority leader Morgan Griffith. Boucher raised $317K for the quarter, not phenomenal although fine for a cheap media district and better than Griffith's $104K (though Griffith's fundraising was condensed into the last few weeks of the cycle, after his announcement). After years of facing nobodies or outright nobody, though, Boucher has built up a huge surplus, and is now sitting on just shy of $2 million CoH.

Vermont: The Green Mountain State is moving up its primary date, in order to comply with national laws intended to make sure that military personnel have time to return their ballots. Gov. Jim Douglas says he won't veto the new law, passed by the legislature, moving the primary from mid-September to August 24.

Teabaggers: A Univ. of Washington study of teabaggers in battleground states has some interesting demographic information, and also some data about underlying attitudes that confirm what some of us have been suspecting: it's largely about racial resentment. People who believe the government "has done too much to support blacks" are 36% more likely to back the teabaggers than those who don't. And of those who approve of the Tea Party movement, only a minority said that they believe blacks to be "hardworking" (35%), "intelligent" (45%), or "trustworthy" (41%). Here's the money quote from the study's author:

"While it's clear that the tea party in one sense is about limited government, it's also clear from the data that people who want limited government don't want certain services for certain kinds of people. Those services include health care,"Parker said.

Polltopia: While some people (like Markos) have been feeling more optimistic as the enthusiasm gap between the parties narrows, PPP's Tom Jensen sees the problem persisting even if it's improving. PPP finds that if the electorate were composed the same as in 2008, they'd have found the Dems in the lead in their recent polls of OH-Sen, PA-Sen, IL-Sen, and WI-Gov. Instead, though, the LV samples pull in a disproportionate number of McCain voters than Obama voters.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/9 (Afternoon Edition)
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Enthusiasm
Even if the economy was hunky dory and everything had gone 100% right for Obama and the Dems anything like a similar turnout to 2008 would still not be happening. Just the way it is. The whole point of getting the base out is to stem guarenteed losses since conservatives are pumped to vote whatever and indies have turned strongly in their direction.

Vermont
Good. This development actually makes Dems more competitive in the governor's race this year. Dubie has the advantage in  this race unless the Dems stop fighting and unite behind a single candidate - he's going to explicitly NOT campaign on issues (on which he's ridiculously conservative for Vermont), and coast on his personal popularity alone. Having the extra month to call his bluff might spell the difference between victory and defeat for Dems, especially if Markowitz is the nominee.

Of course, this being VT, the Dems will probably screw it up somehow (and if they don't, the Progs will), but I'm cautiously optimistic about this.  


Hmmmm, I never realized how similar
MN and VT are.  We always manage to screw it up somehow......  Which is why Im for Rybak officially now, he seems to be the least likely to screw it up.

[ Parent ]
Illinois
That's what's crazy about the gov race in IL - there's all this polling showing that Brady's going to win. But some poll also said that 55% of voters had no opinion of Brady. Though just about everyone knows Gov. Edgar, and apparently Gov. Edgar doesn't care for the guy... I think Brady's in for some trouble (and also kind of highlights how nuts we get about polling when an election is so far out.)

VA-09
Not bad for a couple weeks, but I will be interested to see how much of Griffith's money came from his House of Delegates colleagues.

HI-01 DCCC Poll
Ed Case (D): 32%
Charles Djou (R): 32%
Colleen Hanabusa(D):27%
Undecided: 9%

http://politicalwire.com/archi...


Argh
Djou needs to be attacked on the fat electing him will hurt the president. Too close for endorsements.

[ Parent ]
Basic HI-01 election info
http://hawaii.gov/elections/fa...
Ballots will be mailed approximately 20 days prior to the election. Voted ballots must be
received by the State of Hawaii Office of Elections no later than 6:00 p.m., May 22,
2010 in the return envelopes provided.

So everyone has 3 weeks to change the calculus of this election....

It's Oregon-style rules, so we should know the results (barring recount-level closeness) by that Sunday May 23.


[ Parent ]
How would people feel
About Hanabusa pulling a reverse Abercrombie - dropping out of the special and simply running in the primay. She could even use it as being hard done by to her advantage. Thoughts?

[ Parent ]
She would lose
First, off it would look incredibly weak. Secondly, a special election win would give Ed Case huge momentum going into any primary election. Finally it puts Hannabusa and her supporters into an uncomfortable situation of who do you endorse. Do they all sit out the election and then have Case accuse them of being "bad Democrats" if he loses? If they do rally behind Case then he will undoubtedly use it as ammunition in the primary, "So you were for me as a Congressman before you were against me?" As an aside, Case accusing any other Hawaii politician of backstabbing would be totally laughable, but I doubt the press would call him on it.

So yeah, running only in the primary at this point seems to be a total lose situation.  


[ Parent ]
They would just endorse her again
And, as I said, she could use the fact she did the right thing for the party in contrast to Case's history. I think that is doable.

[ Parent ]
What does Hanabusa do during the special election?
Does she rally behind Case or endorse nobody? Either way, assuming Case wins, I don't see how Hanabusa overcomes Case's momentum from a win. A Congressman Case would then be able to hit up DC donors for fund raising dollars. If Case wins he will be able to out raise Hannabusa, which is less of a big deal b/c he can already outspend her due to his brother's wealth.  

[ Parent ]
Endorses the "Democrat"
Look, stranger things have happened. I'm just throwing ideas out, looking for a solution. And obviously we are both coming from different angles here! :)

[ Parent ]
Lol true
I swear I am using some grand Machiavellian scheme to try to screw the Democratic nominee. I think it would have been, with hindsight being completely 20/20 and, in this case, 15/20, a better idea to stay out of the special and then primary Case. Of course, there was really no way anybody could have seen things getting this bad when the special was announced.
In terms of is dropping out a going for a primary better than the current situation; IMO probably. Unless Hanabusa has a way to simultaneously boost her own poll rating while knocking down her opponents' popularity, she probably loses the special. So yeah, if she is picking her poisons, running a primary against Case after getting out of the special is probably less "lethal" than the alternatives. Who knows, maybe she gains credit for taking away a potential Republican pickup for the good of the party. I doubt it, but stranger things have happened.

[ Parent ]
Hey
I called my scenario right from the get go. I'll have to search for it now!

[ Parent ]
yeah sorry for all of the replies
my bad.

[ Parent ]
Think of this a moment
Imagine Hoffman had dropped out of NY-23 in similar circumstances. Are you telling me a Rep. Scozzafava would have been a cert for the primary?

[ Parent ]
Tru
only Scozzafava couldn't raise any money and was all an around joke of a candidate. Case maybe a, for lack of a better word, d-bag but at least he can raise money and not look like a total fool while running a campaign. That is the difference, I would have been shocked if Dede would have won the special in the absence of Hoffman.  

[ Parent ]
no
Without Hoffman, Dede would have won in a landslide. She would have railed against Obamacare and been fine in a primary.

Don't see why Hanabusa should drop out. She is only a few points behind within the margin of error.

She is not the spoiler. Case is. She is the Hawaian Dem establishment choice. If Djou win Case will get blamed and it will only help her in a Dem primay (Where she has a better chance of beating Case).

Basically droping out would be the worst thing Hanabusa could do if she ever wants to be a member of congress.  

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[ Parent ]
Case will never drop
 - he is a political animal.

[ Parent ]
Id be quite happy about that
I think it'd help her out quite a bit.  And especially if the DCCC promised her not to interfere in the primary, even though its against an incumbent.

[ Parent ]
Are these special elections exempt from the Military Ballot Law?
The Military Ballot Law requires that states must send election ballots to deployed military personnel and civilians at least 45 days  prior to their state's elections.


[ Parent ]
Don't know
but I do know that some states are still working on changing their --future-- primary election dates because of the military ballot law.

So I'd believe that it's not yet being enforced, at least not fully.


[ Parent ]
No wonder the DCCC wants to endorse somebody
even a half way competent Republican can probably pull in 35% of the vote during a special. If the Dems don't unite behind one candidate they are in serious trouble. On the plus side for Democrats, a Djou win means he gets to become the next Bill Redmond.  

[ Parent ]
I really don't see
How endorsing Case would work when they are so closely bunched together like that. It would be different if she was in Daggett territory but this is worse case scenario and then some territory!

[ Parent ]
Maybe it would send an implicit message
of if we don't get behind Case we will lose. In fact, I think that should be the explicit message of the DCCC. I think Hanabusa my have blown it with the whole, "I cut legislative pay, oh wait, no I didn't" messaging.  

[ Parent ]
For an endorsement to work - in a 3-way race this close
The endorsement would have to come from President Obama.

And to soothe ruffled feathers, he'd have to give a job to the person not endorsed. If Obama endorses Case, he'd also have to -- ah -- accept some legislative priority of the two Dans (Sens Inouye and Akaka).


[ Parent ]
5% points down isnt much at all
So agreed, why Case?  They should be pressuring him to drop-out as well, which leads to the question, is there some former-Congressman bias?  A 5% margin isnt endorsement-worthy.

[ Parent ]
5% points down isnt much at all
So agreed, why Case?  They should be pressuring him to drop-out as well, which leads to the question, is there some former-Congressman bias, as a 5% margin isnt endorsement-worthy.  Either one of them dropping out would probably give us the easy win.

[ Parent ]
That fucking Abercrombie!
If we blow this one, I'm sending a check to Hannemann's campaign for Governor.

[ Parent ]
DE-Sen
Pretty reasonable haul for Chris Coons. Particularly when compared to Castle, though granted he has work to do to catch up on CoH.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...



not a very expensive state
Retail politics and cable buys.  There are no in-state tv stations.

[ Parent ]
No advertising on Philadelphia media?
I would think that would be a good idea, and expensive.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
There is
So, it is a pretty expensive state. Thats why Castle wanted to  announce early, in addition to scaring Beau out!

[ Parent ]
it's a waste of money
When you can target in-state only via cable. You're paying for way too many viewers who are out-of-state.

[ Parent ]
I think candidates in New Jersey have a similar problem
having to advertise in Philly and NYC media, despite the waste.

[ Parent ]
And boy, do they ever!
Sitting here in New York City, I've heard so many ads for Gov-NJ, Sen-NJ, and various House races in New Jersey and Connecticut (plus Long Island, Westchester, etc.) - no-one I could vote for. Yet their ads were on New York City-based radio stations like WCBS-AM.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Can someone clear something up about the HI election
Do the top two contenders go against each other or is it that whoever wins the race between Djou Case and and Hanabusa wins the election?  

One election
Winner-take-all.

[ Parent ]
No, whoever wins the most votes wins.


[ Parent ]
than why are two democrats running
and splitting the democratic vote?

Politicians have big egos
Every once in a while, you get someone like Chris Dodd who will take one for the team. But all two often you get this kind of nonsense. Someone really needs to have a talk with Ed Case.

[ Parent ]
An attempts to force Case to drop
were never successful in the past, and, probably, never will. He is a political animal with great ego. But i consider him a better campaigner then Hanabusa, and, being an essrntially centrist, he is better able to expand traditional Democratic base attracting Independents. The left will not desert Democrats for Djou, the center - may do just that.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
though in a state like Hawaii, deserting centrists may not hurt as much as in swing states. Not saying that Dems should abandon the center, but the Democratic/liberal base makes up a greater share of the electorate in Hawaii than in most other states. Hirono lost to Lingle in 2002 not because she was too far left, but because people were tired of Cayetano, plus the primary wasn't exactly great either.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Yes and No
I generally agree with you, but in a close race  even 5% may be decisive. Even in Hawaii (admittedly more liberal, then nation as a whole) "left" can't get majority easily, it usually needs at least some support from the "center"

[ Parent ]
True they do.
But liberals like Inouye and Akaka have had no problem winning.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Sure
They are "institutions" in this state like Robert Byrd in West Virginia. Inouye is almost 50 years in Senate))) It's really interesting what will happen after them - whether there will be some realignment.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
though HI and WV seem to be trending in opposite directions, Obama bounce in HI notwithstanding.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
And still, this is Hawaii
You dont need to be an institution to be elected as a solid liberal in Hawaii.  Like in any state this blue, you just need to run a competent campaign.  And in a three-way, where the vote is getting split conservative-moderate-liberal, and its Hawaii, you really dont need to pick up too many moderates to get to like 37% or something and win.

[ Parent ]
Yes, but it's not too difficult
for a moderate conservative (Djou) to get the same 37% if even hard-right conservative Bush managed that as non-incumbent in 2000. So - all scenarios here are possible. We will see really soon wich one would realize...

[ Parent ]
Well now
That's like asking, why do teabaggers bag.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
VA-02: Republican candidate goes Independent
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

Kenny Golden is pretty much invisible here in Virginia Beach, so I doubt he'll get much more than the typical 1-2% protest vote that independent candidates get. Couldn't hurt Nye, though.


"RIse in Markets shows 'Obamanomics' is working"
Is currently a front page headline on MSNBC.com.  Here is the article, its three pages and is a great read about the economy and lots of praise from economists for Obama but highlighting public opinion is completely contradictory to our economic reality.

The economy created 162k jobs in March, get that number to something reasonable and our fortunes should be much improved by November.  People dont feel employed and that's what is most important.


People don't feel employed
because the official unemployment rate is still 9.7%. The economy needs to improve really palpably to have much positive effect on the November elections.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Agreed.
"Obamanomics" may be working, but that doesn't mean that people aren't still hurting.

[ Parent ]
Things may have bottomed out
But they're a long way from being good.

[ Parent ]
But hopefully not too far from getting to say
Look at GDP growth, job growth, and the stock market, the economy is picking back up and its because of the Democrats.      And it really doesnt take much to get to say "picking back up" or "rebounding", consecutive months of positive numbers is all we need.  We dont need to be anywhere close to where we were before, just got to be improving.

That I think would save PA, CO, maybe NV.  Still could lose DE and AR, along with ND and with our chances at pick-ups would make the Senate a wash.  Probably still lose 15 in the House or something; there's still going to be some rebound from all of our gains, some seats we just wont be able to keep in a year that isnt heavily favored to us.


[ Parent ]
U6 unemployment is up at 16.9%
It is true that the economy is picking back up but there needs to be some real tremendous growth for unemployment to drop below 9%. Just to keep pace with population growth the U.S. needs to add 100,000 new jobs a month.
Also the statement that the economic rebound is due to the actions of the Democrats is, for the most part, false. The federal gov't has very little ability to have a great effect on employment in the grand scheme of things. While the stimulus definitely has had a positive effect on employment, it probably didn't "save the economy." The federal reserve is much more capable of directly influencing economic activity compared to Congress.
The situation that you described for the election is really a best case scenario that, while not outside the realm of the possible, is highly improbable given what has come to pass. It also isn't just me, Nate Silver: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com... and Charlie Cook: http://www.nationaljournal.com... have said similar things recently.  

[ Parent ]
I like Nate alot
But continue to believe this "15-75+" spread he keeps talking about is a real cop-out. I'm sticking to 30 myself. Actually, I'm beginning to think, and I know this is a little out of left field, the Senate is more likely to shift than the House.

[ Parent ]
Yeah I don't believe the 75+ thing
I see a possible nightmare scenario for Dems where the net loss could hit like 55 tops. I think 30-40 is a more realistic prediction though. Does the DCCC's money advantage have anything to do with your bold prediction conspiracy?  

[ Parent ]
Quite a number of factors
But that is certainly one of them. But not really a prediction just yet just a feeling. Just remember where you heard it first!

[ Parent ]
I feel that a month before Nov 2
we all will write a lot of (somewhat similar) diaries with detailed predictions))) It will be reasonable to organize all in such way to make everything readable, interesting and yet - not especially repetitive.

[ Parent ]
About 100,000 jobs per month
We did add 162,000 jobs last month, the largest growth in three years. Without counting the census, we still added about 120,000 jobs. This also came out of nowhere too instead of being the product of a slight upward trend. I think the Democrats just need to focus on how many jobs have been gained which should convince people we are fixing the economy. I also saw this article (I do not have the link) where it talked about all these big companies that were looking for people. It was mostly retail stores.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Yep
I think there is direct correlation between the ad Dems can run in the fall and the number of lost seats in November.

"The employment rate has gone down!" > "The ecomomy is creating a hundred thousand jobs a month!" > "The economy is now creating jobs!" > "The economy is losing fewer jobs!"

Which translates into something like 20 seats > 30 > 40 > 50!


[ Parent ]
- 20 seats > - 30 etc


[ Parent ]

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