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Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 13

by: Crisitunity

Sun Apr 04, 2010 at 2:28 AM EDT


Ever take the week off, and come back to find your inbox full of spam?

AL-Gov (3/29, likely voters):

Artur Davis (D): 33
Bradley Byrne (R): 50
Some other: 9
Not sure: 9

Artur Davis (D): 36
Kay Ivey (R): 43
Some other: 12
Not sure: 8

Artur Davis (D): 35
Tim James (R): 49
Some other: 10
Not sure: 7

Artur Davis (D): 44
Roy Moore (R): 40
Some other: 11
Not sure: 6

Ron Sparks (D): 33
Bradley Byrne (R): 43
Some other: 11
Not sure: 13

Ron Sparks (D): 33
Kay Ivey (R): 39
Some other: 15
Not sure: 13

Ron Sparks (D): 34
Tim James (R): 38
Some other: 13
Not sure: 14

Ron Sparks (D): 40
Roy Moore (R): 35
Some other: 15
Not sure: 10
(MoE: ±4.5%)

AL-Sen (3/29, likely voters):

William Barnes (D): 32
Richard Shelby (R): 59
Some other: 3
Not sure: 6
(MoE: ±4.5%)

AR-Sen (3/30, likely voters, 3/1 in parentheses):

Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (39)
John Boozman (R): 51 (48)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 7 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (40)
Gilbert Baker (R): 51 (45)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 7 (8)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 35 (38)
Kim Hendren (R): 51 (43)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 8 (12)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (41)
Curtis Coleman (R): 48 (43)
Some other: 7 (7)
Not sure: 8 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 35 (38)
Jim Holt (R): 51 (45)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 7 (10)

Bill Halter (D): 34 (33)
John Boozman (R): 48 (55)
Some other: 8 (6)
Not sure: 11 (9)

Bill Halter (D): 36 (37)
Gilbert Baker (R): 44 (43)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 12 (13)

Bill Halter (D): 34 (35)
Kim Hendren (R): 42 (42)
Some other: 10 (7)
Not sure: 13 (15)

Bill Halter (D): 37 (35)
Curtis Coleman (R): 40 (38)
Some other: 10 (9)
Not sure: 13 (18)

Bill Halter (D): 34 (38)
Jim Holt (R): 43 (42)
Some other: 9 (8)
Not sure: 14 (12)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Gov (3/18, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):

Alex Sink (D): 36 (35)
Bill McCollum (R): 47 (48)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 12 (12)
(MoE: ±3%)

FL-Sen (3/18, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):

Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (32)
Charlie Crist (R): 45 (48)
Some other: 11 (11)
Not sure: 10 (9)

Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (31)
Marco Rubio (R): 48 (51)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 11 (11)
(MoE: ±3%)

HI-Gov (3/24, likely voters):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 54
Duke Aiona (R): 31
Some other: 6
Not sure: 9

Mufi Hannemann (D): 50
Duke Aiona (R): 29
Some other: 14
Not sure: 7
(MoE: ±4.5%)

HI-Sen (3/24, likely voters):

Dan Inouye (D): 65
Linda Lingle (R): 25
Some other: 3
Not sure: 6
(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Gov (3/17, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):

Chet Culver (D): 36 (37)
Terry Branstad (R): 52 (53)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 6 (4)

Chet Culver (D): 40 (40)
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 42 (46)
Some other: 8 (7)
Not sure: 11 (7)

Chet Culver (D): 40
Rod Roberts (R): 38
Some other: 10
Not sure: 13
(MoE: ±4.5%)

ID-Gov (3/23, likely voters):

Keith Allred (D): 28
Butch Otter (R): 60
Some other: 3
Not sure: 9
(MoE: ±4.5%)

ID-Sen (3/23, likely voters):

Generic Democrat (D): 28
Mike Crapo (R): 60
Some other: 3
Not sure: 9
(MoE: ±4.5%)

MI-Gov (D) (3/24, likely voters):

Andy Dillon (D): 12
Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 10
Virg Bernero (D): 8
Some other: 17
Not sure: 53
(MoE: ±4%)

MI-Gov (R) (3/24, likely voters):

Peter Hoekstra (R): 27
Rick Snyder (R): 18
Mike Cox (R): 13
Mike Bouchard (R): 6
Some other: 5
Not sure: 32
(MoE: ±4%)

NC-Sen (3/22, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 35 (34)
Richard Burr (R): 51 (50)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 8 (12)

Cal Cunningham (D): 32 (29)
Richard Burr (R): 51 (51)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-AL (3/23-24, likely voters, 2/9-10 in parentheses):

Earl Pomeroy (D): 44 (40)
Rick Berg (R): 51 (46)
Some other: 1 (3)
Not sure: 4 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (3/23-24, likely voters, 2/9-10 in parentheses):

Tracy Potter (D): 25 (17)
John Hoeven (R): 68 (71)
Some other: 2 (4)
Not sure: 5 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NM-Gov (3/24, likely voters):

Diane Denish (D): 51
Susana Martinez (R): 32
Some other: 7
Not sure: 10

Diane Denish (D): 52
Pete Domenici Jr. (R): 35
Some other: 6
Not sure: 6

Diane Denish (D): 45
Allen Weh (R): 35
Some other: 7
Not sure: 13

Diane Denish (D): 52
Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 30
Some other: 6
Not sure: 12

Diane Denish (D): 43
Doug Turner (R): 34
Some other: 7
Not sure: 16
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NY-Gov (3/29, likely voters, 3/1 in parentheses):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 52 (55)
Rick Lazio (R): 29 (30)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 13 (10)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51 (56)
Carl Paladino (R): 28 (27)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 15 (11)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 50
Steve Levy (R): 26
Some other: 7
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Gov (3/30, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):

Ted Strickland (D): 45 (38)
John Kasich (R): 46 (49)
Some other: 2 (6)
Not sure: 7 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Sen (3/30, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 38 (39)
Rob Portman (R): 43 (44)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 14 (12)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38 (37)
Rob Portman (R): 45 (43)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 13 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

RI-Gov (3/25, likely voters, 2/25 in parentheses):

Frank Caprio (D): 28 (27)
John Robitaille (R): 22 (19)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 39 (37)
Not sure: 11 (17)

Patrick Lynch (D): 22 (24)
John Robitaille (R): 26 (22)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 37 (38)
Not sure: 15 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-AL (3/25, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 44 (45)
Chris Nelson (R): 42 (38)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 9 (11)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 46 (49)
Kristi Noem (R): 35 (34)
Some other: 8 (4)
Not sure: 10 (13)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 45 (51)
Blake Curd (R): 33 (33)
Some other: 8 (5)
Not sure: 14 (12)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-Gov (3/25, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):

Scott Heidepriem (D): 32 (32)
Dennis Daugaard (R): 49 (41)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 13 (19)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 37 (34)
Dave Knudson (R): 32 (31)
Some other: 13 (13)
Not sure: 19 (22)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 39 (37)
Gordon Howie (R): 34 (29)
Some other: 9 (12)
Not sure: 17 (22)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

TN-Gov (3/22, likely voters):

Mike McWherter (D): 27
Bill Haslam (R): 45
Some other: 5
Not sure: 23

Mike McWherter (D): 29
Ron Ramsey (R): 43
Some other: 5
Not sure: 23

Mike McWherter (D): 31
Zach Wamp (R): 41
Some other: 7
Not sure: 22

Kim McMillan (D): 26
Bill Haslam (R): 46
Some other: 5
Not sure: 23

Kim McMillan (D): 25
Ron Ramsey (R): 43
Some other: 8
Not sure: 24

Kim McMillan (D): 29
Zach Wamp (R): 42
Some other: 5
Not sure: 25
(MoE: ±4.5%)

WY-Gov (3/25, likely voters):

Mike Massie (D): 25
Matt Mead (R): 43
Some other: 8
Not sure: 24

Mike Massie (D): 23
Ron Micheli (R): 45
Some other: 8
Not sure: 25

Mike Massie (D): 26
Rita Meyer (R): 43
Some other: 7
Not sure: 25

Mike Massie (D): 26
Colin Simpson (R): 41
Some other: 8
Not sure: 25
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Crisitunity :: Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 13
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FL-Sen
Meek improves from last month's numbers against either Rubio or Crist. And if you include a Rasmussen bias correction factor, there's a hope for November.     (FWIW, fivethirtyeight currently gives Meek a 19% chance)

Holy crap
This is unbelievably mammoth. My hat is off to you, sir!

Spamtastic
Who the hell know Ras was this spamy? Jez.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

SD-Gov
Is Heidepriem really in that good shape?  My goodness, we might actually have a race here.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

I consider it change emphasis
It's pretty much how Kulongski had such a tough time in Oregon, and Rossi almost on in 2004; 20 consecutive years of Democratic governance, even though relatively competent left moderates and independents open to a change of pace. The last time a Democrat was elected Governor of South Dakota was 1975, with Richard Kneip.

The state is not as closed to Democrats as it appears, and Heidepriem is charismatic, has been a strong legislative leader, is a good campaigner, and has a good shot at winning over the state, afterall Obama, running significantly to Heidepriem's left and not devoting full resources to the state, got 45%.

The Republican primary is also all over the place, which really benefits the Democrats right now.


[ Parent ]
What are the chances
He doesn't face Daugaard?

[ Parent ]
I'm not to familiar with the Republican Primary
unfortunately, so I can't claim to have a good answer to that question. I'd be interested to hear from some people that do.  

[ Parent ]
As far as i know
(though i am not from the state) Daugaard is a favorite and, probably, most well-known, because his Lt. Governor post. Knudson is more moderate socially (at least - he was as a legislator) and, probably, second well-known. Other have their "local bases" and may heavily influence final result, but i will be somewhat surprised if they win. Howie seems to be closest to tea-bagging crowd.

[ Parent ]
AR-Sen
It really hurts Lincoln that Halter is doing better in the November matchups; the only argument she has is "I have a chance to win, but he doesn't." Now she can't say that.

ND/RI
2 comments...

1. There is no chance in hell that Robataille is polling ahead of Lynch.  No chance at all.  

2. I am really starting to worry about Pomeroy and Herseth-Sandlin.

29/D/Male/NY-01


Well
I agree that this poll overstates Robitaille's support, but one thing to remember is that Chafee attracts more Democrats than Republicans, and Caprio will probably beat Lynch anyway. Chafee will probably grab moderate Republicans, Independents, and open-minded Democrats (ie not the people who just vote Democratic because that's what they always do), while Caprio will take the Democratic base, and Robitaille will take conservatives.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Also
If Chafee wins, I'm going to count it as a Democratic win.  He's running to the left of all the Democratic candidates right now.  Party or no party, a Chafee win is fine for our side.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Democrats should be happy with Chafee.
I'm a Democrat (although I think I'm registered as an Independent right now) and unless something goes really awry he has my vote.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Besides
Caprio is considered fairly conservative, although at least he supports SSM which is extremely important to me as a gay Rhode Islander.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
If I lived in RI
Chafee would have my vote too.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I could be wrong
But didn't Chafee support privatizing social security?

[ Parent ]
yes
but SS is a federal program and as governor Chafee wouldn't do anything to it. Besides, it's unclear whether he truly supported it or whether for once he was just bowing to pressure from the leadership.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
An odd issue to bow to pressure to party leaders
He opposed the Iraq war, bush tax cuts and medicare part D but supports privatization. The dude needs to learn to pick his fights better

[ Parent ]
I don't know man
but none of his positions are really that harmful in the context of governing Atlantis Rhode Island.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
lol
Many conservatives refer to California as "Atlantis" because they believe the San Andreas Fault will make it break away into the ocean (which with a transform fault is actually impossible but good luck convincing them).

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Rhode Island
got flooded by a massive storm last week. I left right before it happened (oh spring break, I miss you already...), but according to my friend, parts of the state actually got evacuated, and there was tons of property damage, and part of I-95 is actually closed.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
About how much do these polls cost?
This is way more polling than they've done in previous cycles- ether polls have gotten cheaper or they've gotten access to a lot more money.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Robopolling can't cost very much
Since all you need is someone to formulate questions, input it into the system, and interpret the data. It's not like you have dozens of people making 5-10 minute calls to voters. PPP doesn't have any apparent problem with polling different states for free every week.

[ Parent ]
PPP doesn't do this many per week though
I haven't counted but I'm guessing they do at least 3 times as many per week.  


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
The biggest cost is the voter file
And, as we've mentioned before on the FP, Rasmussen has been the recent beneficiary of a "major growth capital investment" from private equity firm Noson Lawen.

[ Parent ]

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