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AL-Gov: All Republicans Lead Davis and Sparks

by: James L.

Wed Mar 31, 2010 at 5:57 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (3/27-29, Alabama voters, no trend lines):

Artur Davis (D): 32
Bradley Byrne (R): 48

Ron Sparks (D): 30
Bradley Byrne (R): 43

Artur Davis (D): 33
Tim James (R): 42

Ron Sparks (D): 33
Tim James (R): 38

Artur Davis (D): 37
Roy Moore (R): 43

Ron Sparks (D): 37
Roy Moore (R): 42
(MoE: ±2.5%)

Also included in the poll was state Treasurer Kay Ivey, who announced today that she'll be switching races to the less-crowded Lt. Governor's race. Ivey leads Davis by 44-33 and Sparks by 39-33.

In every permutation of this race tested by PPP, a greater share of Democrats are undecided compared to Republicans -- especially in the match-ups against Byrne, where twice as many Democrats are undecided. Even if most of those voters come home, Democrats will need some lucky breaks in order to win here... breaks such as a Roy Moore primary win, for instance.
James L. :: AL-Gov: All Republicans Lead Davis and Sparks
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AL-Gov: All Republicans Lead Davis and Sparks | 23 comments
For what its worth most of those undecided Democrats probably aren't Dixiecrats
According to the 2008 exit polls Obama won Democrats 85%-14%, not too much lower than the 89%-10% win nationally.  So anyone worried that most of the undecided Democrats in the poll are just Dixiecrats should be a little relieved.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Shock, horror, amazed
The Black Democrat does worse in every case. Davis is an idiot. Sparks may make a race of it.
I think Davis's biggest problem isn't his race
It's the fact that he's really turning off progressives in the state with his race to the right and Birmingham politicians rarely play well statewide.
[ Parent ]
Clearly a problem though
But yes, I think the numbers released yesterday support that. Disapproval with Black Dems was very interesting.
[ Parent ]
What was Davis' thinking?
"First black governor of Alabama" my butt. Charles Barkley would have done better.
[ Parent ]
Even Gnarls Barkley would have done better
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Barkley
did teach us science at the end of the Clerks animated series.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
The key takeaway
If Roy Moore is the GOP nominee, the Democrat has a chance.  If anyone else is the GOP nominee, the Democrat has no chance.

While it's not looking likely that Moore will win his primary, he does have a legitimate shot.  So the question is: Blue Dog positions and superior campaign skills versus statewide name recognition and support for the base.  Which one gives us the better shot against Moore?  And should we pick Sparks either way on the grounds that it's unlikely Moore will be the GOP nominee, so we shouldn't worry about who's more electable?

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

Not no chance
I wouldn't say the Dems have no chance unless Moore is the nominee...slim to none, perhaps, but the election is still pretty far away and most of these folks (Moore excepted) are pretty unknown statewide.

I think Sparks has a shot no matter whom he faces. The only way Davis wins is if Moore is the Republican and starts shooting off his crazy nutjob mouth nonstop. Barring that, the best Davis does is Corker/Ford numbers--respectable, but still a solid loss.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Nothing would please me more
than seeing Davis handed his sorry ass with a 20 pt loss in Nov! Frankly the guy is a douche and the fact that he'd put his fairy tale personal political ambition over the over 450K black Alabamans who have zero economic clout in a state where the white-dominated GOP establishment woudln't give a flying fuck about their socio-economic well being, makes him the worst shyster to have come out of there. I mean, he is literally the only Federal official able to deliver for black Alabama and the fact that in this hard recession he throws them the middle finger on life and death matters is disgusting! He can go to hell....

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
Couldn't happen to a nicer guy
After he gets his butt kicked, maybe Harold Ford can get him a job with Merrill Lynch.
[ Parent ]
Words right out of my mouth.
   But it would make me even happier if he lost the primary at the hands of Black Democrats.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Congressional races
So there are 3 competitive congressional races in Alabama in 2010, too. Of those, it would be better if Sparks were the nominee for the person in AL-05 (Sparks' base is here) and Bobby Bright. For Segall in AL-03, it would better if Davis were the nominee.

Why? Bright and AL-05 (which are both roughly 17% black) need white voters voting for Team Blue, while AL-03 needs big turnout by black voters (about 30% black nowadays). Now, despite Davis' seeming unpopularity with black voters, they will probably turn out a lot better if he's at the top of the ticket than if it's Sparks. But Sparks will almost certainly be able to get more white crossover votes (and frankly, he'd do just as well or better at holding the base, including black voters).

I honestly think Davis could take Bright and the AL-05 nominee down with him as the racist nutjobs turn out in force to stop the possibility of a black governor. Why oh why didn't Davis run for AG?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Wow
those numbers blow! At the beginning of this cycle I had this one at a tossup. I suppose the national climate and Alabama's conservative lean will be extremely hard to overcome. I am still torn about who to support in the primary. I really don't like Davis or Sparks. Davis was a real jerk (nice word for it!) on HCR, and Sparks was a real jerk (again too nice!) on the Griffith Congressional seat. I could see many progressives not showing up for Davis, but I could see many more AA not showing up for Sparks. I think it would be really historic to see an AA Governor, yet I would like it to be someone besides Artur Davis.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Sparks on Griffith Congressional seat
What did he say?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
He
seriously considered running against Griffith, and then said he never thought of it. He acted like a real moron if you ask me.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Meh
"Politician briefly considers different career stepping stone" is not exactly a news flash or an impeachable offense. Not a great moment in his campaign, mind you, but not nearly as important as voting against your President's signature piece of legislation that your constituents overwhelmingly want because you're pandering to white voters outside your district.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Literally true
Oh this is precious. I was looking up Bradley Byrne, and found this gem. Bradley, buddy, I don't think "literally" means what you think it means. Well, actually, I believe you do know what it means, but that you're cynically backpedaling a perfectly reasonable response to a loaded question for political gain.

Bradley Byrne (R) said he believes that "every word is true" in the Bible and that his position was misrepresented in a recent Mobile Press-Register article when he stated "there are parts of the Bible that are meant to be literally true and parts that are not."

The newspaper stands by its original story.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

There could be some politically problematic positions in the Good Book ... unless you're really into stoning bankers and adulterers and stuff ... which, come to think of it, might play well in Alabama this year. Have at it, buddy.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Although in fairness
In fairness, it might be tough to explain the concept of metaphors to the Republican primary electorate in Alabama.

And in fairness to the Republican primary electorate in Alabama, even they seem to realize that Roy "10 Commandments" Moore might not be the best choice for Governor (ie--he has better R favorability and name recognition than his primary poll numbers would suggest.)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
In short Democrats have chances
against Moore and James, but not against Byrne. And Sparks generally polls somewhat better then Davis (may be - because Davis is Black, may be - by other reasons. You need details (poll results by race and counties) for precise answer). Byrne, despite his "Bible ramark", seems to me as more "normal conservative" then Moore and James (am i correct?). If so - nothing especially surprising: Alabama is a conservative state, so conservative (but not overt extremist) will be favored here in conceivable future.
Oh absolutely
That's the crazy thing: Byrne is known as the moderate in the race. My point was just that even he is hardcore pandering to the extreme right.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Well, he needs to win a primary, doesn't he?
And Republican primary in Alabama is very "hardcore dominated"))))
[ Parent ]
And my point
Yup. And my point is that doing so won't help him in the general. God bless Republican primaries.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
AL-Gov: All Republicans Lead Davis and Sparks | 23 comments

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