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SSP Daily Digest: 3/26 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Fri Mar 26, 2010 at 2:49 PM EDT


CA-Sen: Republican Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is still lagging in the single digits in polling, but prominent conservatives keep coming to his aid. He just got the endorsement of libertarian-minded Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake, and also of the Tea Party Express (the corporate wing of the teabaggers' movement).

DE-Sen: "Repeal!" of HCR has become the rallying cry for almost every Republican candidate for federal office lately, but Rep. Mike Castle has stood out from the crowd with his reluctance, saying repeal is not "realistic." Now that's turning into an issue in his GOP primary, where his far-right opponent, marketing consultant and occasional Fox News contributor Christine O'Donnell, is accusing him of "breaking faith" with Delaware voters by not supporting it. A few other of the more sensible GOPers running in blue states, like Rob Simmons and Tom Campbell, are also keeping repeal at arms-length.

FL-Sen: Good news for Charlie Crist, I suppose: Mason-Dixon has polled the GOP primary, and they find that he's losing to Marco Rubio by a mere 11 points (much less than a number of other pollsters, ranging from Rasmussen to R2K, have found): 48-37. Crist leads Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek 50-26, while Rubio leads Meek 44-29, although half of respondents didn't know who Meek was. Meanwhile, you might have forgotten (as I often did) that ex-New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith was, as far as he was concerned, in the GOP primary as well. Well, not anymore: Smith shuttered his campaign today, citing (big surprise) fundraising problems.

WA-Sen: If there's one group that should be getting behind Dino Rossi's possible Senate candidacy, it's the Washington Association of Realtors. Not only are they a usually conservative-leaning organization with close ties to the builders' lobby, but also Rossi is one of them: his day job is real estate salesperson. So, hot on the heels of yesterday's R2K poll, here's another problem Rossi needs to seriously contemplate: WAR just endorsed Patty Murray.

CA-Gov: Remember Pete Wilson? The former Governor is largely responsible for turning the California Republican Party's name into mud, among Latinos, in the 1990s with his support for anti-immigrant Proposition 187 -- a decision that may have had short-term benefits but has turned into a long-term disaster as the state's demographics change. The California Accountability Project is shining the spotlight back on Wilson in his new job: campaign chair for Meg Whitman.

MI-Gov: Um, no. Just no. Mop-topped attorney Geoffrey Fieger is best known for his defense of Jack Kevorkian, but he also somehow wound up with the 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nomination and went on to lose to John Engler by a 62-38 margin after a slew of bone-headed remarks. Fieger now says he's considering another run at the Democratic nomination.

NY-Gov (pdf): Marist has a new poll of the New York gubernatorial race, finding that party-switching Suffolk Co. Executive Steven Levy is in for a rude reception from the GOP. He's losing the primary to ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, 53-21. Andrew Cuomo dispatches either one, 61-30 against Lazio or 65-26 against Levy. Meanwhile, the saga of David Paterson (with a 16/80 job rating according to Marist) keeps getting sadder/weirder/yuckier, with a NYT article today about his attempts to secure an endorsement from the woman involved in a domestic dispute with one of his top aides.

TN-Gov: The GOP side in the gubernatorial race shrank today, with the withdrawal of Shelby County DA Bill Gibbons from the race. He had the advantage of being the only western Tennessee candidate in the primary, but he never got very far on the fundraising front. Meanwhile, among what's left of the Democratic field, beer baron Mike McWherter just got an endorsement from Memphis's new mayor, A.C. Wharton. McWherter's only remaining Dem opponent is former state House majority leader Kim McMillan.

AR-03, PA-07: Mike Huckabee offered up two different endorsements, one right on his home turf. He endorsed former state Rep. Doug Matayo in the open seat race to succeed John Boozman in the dark-red 3rd. The other place seems kind of odd: endorsing ostensibly moderate Pat Meehan in the Dem-leaning, heavily Catholic, decidedly non-Southern-fried PA-07.

HI-01: The final candidate list for the May 22 all-mail special election in the 1st is out. The only three candidates of consequence are, as expected, Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case for the Dems, and Charles Djou for the GOP. With the winner-takes-all nature, minor candidates may weigh heavily on the outcome, but there's a pretty even split with three extra no-name Democrats and four extra GOPers, as well as four independents.

KS-03: Stephene Moore, the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore, backed off slightly from reports yesterday that she was entering the race to succeed him. She said that she was going to continue thinking about it and would have a formal statement soon. Chris Cillizza has sources, though, who say it's a done deal.

IL-LG: It sounds like Pat Quinn has settled on something of an outsider (albeit one with a famous family name) for his Lt. Governor running mate: Sheila Simon, the daughter of former Sen. (and former LG) Paul Simon. She's a law professor at Southern Illinois Univ., whose only political experience seems to be losing a race for Carbondale mayor. State Sen. Susan Garrett appears to have been bypassed over not supporting Quinn's income tax plan, which Simon supports. Meanwhile, supporters of African-American Rep. Art Turner are warning of depressed black turnout in November if Quinn doesn't opt for Turner instead.

RNC: A decision from the trial-level U.S. District Court in Washington DC was a fundraising setback for the RNC, which wanted to be able to raise unlimited soft money from corporations and individuals but didn't receive the green light to do so.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/26 (Afternoon Edition)
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HI-GOV - Good Rasmussen numbers.
I posted this in the now somewhat stale a.m. edition moments ago, so I'll repost it here.

Abercrombie 54, Aiona 31
Hannemann 50, Aiona 29

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


Are you sure that is Rasmussen?
Seriously, may well mean the special election won't be too much of a problem either.

[ Parent ]
I thought the same thing.
I love the guy when he's got good results for Democrats.  What a great pollster!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I don't trust him period
But as I keep saying his numbers are still useful if you allow every time for the house effect Nate has talked about.

[ Parent ]
So that means that Aiona has -2% support in reality
I do think that the GOP has a chance in this race, though. Aiona seems like a solid candidate and this isn't a good year to be running with two decades of Washington experience under your belt.

[ Parent ]
No
It means Abercrombie probably leads by more than 23 and Hannemann by more than 21. In reality. And I think it is the perfect year to be running as a Hawaii Democrat with Obama in the White House.

[ Parent ]
I've been telling yall for awhile now
Aiona has zero chance of being the next governor.  Abercrombie will beat Hannemann and then wipe the floor with Aiona.  The only pundits who actually think Aiona has a chance are those who aren't paying much attention.

[ Parent ]
What do you make of the special
And Cook moving it to tossup?

[ Parent ]
PA-07
If i am correct - Meehan runs unopposed. So - whom could Huckaby support? Democratic candidates? Unlikely.

It's another thing - WHY he decided to pay attention to race here. But why not - it's very well publicized race, and, probably, will be very close to the end. So - not so bad choice))))


WOW
Sheila Simon? She taught my sister, I remember sitting in on one of her classes before. I can't believe Quinn picked her, I didn't even know she was in the running. My sister volunteered for her campaign as well. I thought he would go with Art Turner, but this is a pleasant surprise.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Maybe trying to give geographical balance to the ticket
Both Brady and his 27-year-old wingnut running mate are from downstate.

Quinn's from Chicago.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Balancing the Ticket
Yeah pretty much everything I've read on this for the last couple months made it clear that Quinn would like the nominee to be a woman who is not from Chicago. I suppose it's somewhat surprising though that he picked someone with so little political experience given that that would've been an easy way to differentiate the Democratic nominee from Jason Plummer.  

[ Parent ]
It's Not Up To Quinn
     ChistUnity's article makes it sound like the decision is up to Gov. Quinn. It's not. The vacancy is filled by the Democratic State Central Committee, which is obviously made up of party regulars, and they won't be especially inclined to do the bidding of Quinn, who has always been an outsider reformer. When Speaker Madigan has something to say on the subject, we'll know who the candidate is going to be.

[ Parent ]
Geoff Fieger?
  I thought he was best known for being the brother of the late singer/guitarist of the pop group the Knack, Doug Fieger. Either way he is not a strong candidate for MI-Gov...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

Both Wrong
He's best known for being Jack Kevorkian's attorney while Mr. Kevorkian was driving around in his VW van doing his "thing."

[ Parent ]
Sorry, I obviously didn't remember what I read
Reading comprehension, anyone? I swear I got a 680 on the SAT Verbal.

[ Parent ]
Rossi and RNC
1. Rossi seems to be stuck with some not so good choices.  Either run and risk losing to Patty Murray and his third statewide race; or maybe take on Gregoire a third time or maybe wait until Gregoire doesn't run for re-election but have to battle the Republican attorney general for the nomination.

2. So the SCOTUS lifts the ban of corporate spending in elections (a corporation already has run an ad in an election here in Texas within the last week), but apparently that isn't enough.  So the RNC sues to make sure corporations can give even more unlimited money.

The thing about that lifting of the corporate ban is funny.  The court rules last year in Caperton v. Massey that judges might be influenced by political donations (the donations in the case were from corporations), but rather than limit it the court goes ahead and lifts the ban on corporate spending.


smith must hate the cold
that's the only (quasi) logical explanation for running for senate in florida when there's an open seat in his home state, where they didn't have a go to R candidate in the span of time after sununu said no, but ayotte hadn't said yes yet.  Yes he wasn't that popular in his state, but it can't be worse than his status in florida.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Only in florida could it be goo news
To be down by only 11 points.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Either MD are onto something new
Or they are confirming my doubts about their credibility. There rep just isn't justified IMO.

[ Parent ]
The only justification
Cook gave on the free side of the paywall was that Djou started running biographical ads, and they were appealing to Charlie Cook.  What else could possibly matter?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Oh Geoffrey Fieger...
I didn't want you to be Gov in '98 (though I still would've taken you over Engler, I guess).  I still don't want you to be Gov in 2010.  So please just go back to running those irritating ads on the local Detroit stations that I sometimes see when I'm home on break and stay out of politics.

On the other hand, if you can draw votes from Andy Dillon and only Andy Dillon, then go for it.  Just don't actually win the nomination.  I know this won't be good for you, but it would make me happy.

28, Male, MI-09 (home), MD-07 (school)


John McCain on guyswithiphones.com
http://guyswithiphones.com/pos...

the site is extremely nsfw and is actually a site for gay guys to cruise hot guys who take pictures of themselves in a mirror with an iPhone.  Some pictures are just of their face and how someone looks that day on down to XXX bj's and anal sex.

And you can click the link, McCain isnt naked in the picture (thank god).  But it is DEFINITELY him!  What the hell is he doing on a site that could be classified as porn?


I think this has to be the most random thing
I've ever seen on SSP.

But there's no way I'm clicking the link now while at work.


[ Parent ]
Im going to email it to the Hayworth campaign
Not hard to tie this into an ad saying "John McCain appears on gay porn website"

The man can barely even work his email, what is he doing???!!!


[ Parent ]
Probably
Someone grabbed that pic from his Twitter feed and sent it in to GuysWithiPhones. That's where it was originally posted.

And just fyi--that site is extremely NSFW. I forgot how raunchy it is, when I clicked the link (hooray for complete internet freedom at work!) but even the ads have dicks in them.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
McCain is in the ads too?


[ Parent ]
Ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
nt

33, living in Germany  

[ Parent ]
Ha
Nice one. But for the record, I meant the other kind of dicks, the NSFW kind.  :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
So, someone took a photo of him
and posted it there. So what?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
well he's clearly taking the picture himself
but as someone above said, he couldve taken that pic for a number of reasons and someone else posted it on the site.

I'll still go with its funny and still good legit fodder!  "John McCain appeared on a gay porn website."   The ad writes itself.


[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
That's how what's-his-face from the Wizards of Waverly Place came out.

...either way I'm sure this isn't legit. :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
NOM! LOL!


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
So let's think about this
The "popular" governor of Hawaii is getting 25% and Cook has HI-1 ranked as toss-up.  If it's a 3 way contest and dems are in equal footing that's Dem1 30%, Dem2 30% and GOP 25%.

Anyone else see Cook's new rating slew today and is convinced he's now just convinced to sell his own lemonade?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Quote
"...health care's passage won't erase the yawning partisan enthusiasm gap creating so many GOP pickup opportunities."

Cough.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...
 


[ Parent ]
Okay so b/c
So due to Lingle losing to somebody who is popular and has been there since the 60s and b/c Dems are likely to win the governor's race in the fall the Hawaii special election will not be competitive? The Democratic field is pretty divided so I think Djou stands a chance if he can get around 30%. I think it looks more like a Lean Dem race than a tossup, but I don't think calling it such is a ridiculous rating.
In regards to the comment above, kos is pointing to a bounce immediately after health care has passed, let me see the numbers from a non-kos, non-ras pollster in 3 weeks to a month and then I will actually begin to think that the dynamics have changed at the Dems won't get taken to the woodshed in the fall.  

[ Parent ]
Also by taken to the wood shed
I mean 25+ seat in the House and 5+ seats in the Senate switch over to the Republicans.  

[ Parent ]
Who said it won't be competitive?
Even the gubernatorial race will probably tighten. But 30% means Djou loses.

Now, you are correct it may not last but there is still significant movement there and I don't think it should be dismissed. Also a bit of a misnomer that Dems have to close the enthusiasm gap completely.

And I'd call your woodshed scenario an average midterm result and I would take it right now if offered.


[ Parent ]
30% baseline for Djou means, yes he loses
but it is close, and it is why I said I thought the race was more of a lean D. Also it was more a response to "Anyone else see Cook's new rating slew today and is convinced he's now just convinced to sell his own lemonade?"
And if losing a senate of 5 senate seats and 25 House seats is the average midterm expectation than I think taking it to the woodshed is appropriate. That is getting your butt kicked.  

[ Parent ]
Whatever you call it
It is average for a midterm and I imagine most in the GOP would be disappointed with that result.

[ Parent ]
Case and Hanabusa
The problem is the Dems have two big name candidates who could split the vote allowing Djou to sneak through. If anything it will probably play out like CA-10 did (Garamendi 26%, Harmer 21%, DeSaulnier 18%).

[ Parent ]
Problem with that:
Dems had a third major candidate in CA-10 (Buchanan).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
That really didn't matter
If Buchanan had dropped out Harmer would not have benefited from it. He would've dropped to third. The point is, it's hard to see the GOP candidate winning. Both districts are D+11.  

[ Parent ]
Sorry
I thought you were citing CA-10 as an example of a close call where the Republican got close to a plurality, not the opposite.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Both D+11
But since it is Obama's home turf we should probably allow for the 2008 vote a little more. 65-33 versus 70-28. In other words 10 points more Dem.

[ Parent ]
New mayor of Memphis?
Does that mean that Willie Herenton lost the special election? I kind of stopped paying attention to that race a while ago because I figured Steve Cohen would smush him like a bug. Herenton might be slightly less crazy than Nikki Tinker, but that's like saying that hurricanes are slightly less destructive than asteroids.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


AC Wharton is the new Memphis Mayor
Herenton didn't run in the special election

[ Parent ]
Really?
I thought he resigned and then ran in the special election created by his resignation.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
He probably dropped out to spend more time campaigning for the race that he originally resigned to have more time to campaign for... NT


[ Parent ]
Yes, that's the *logical* thing to do
but Herenton is crazy.

In fact Wikipedia confirms that he did run in the special election created by his resignation, but it doesn't have anything about the results--I assume he lost since he's not mayor.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Wikipedia's incorrect
http://www.wmctv.com/Global/st...

I'd fix it now but Wikipedia's a pain to edit on iPhones.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Wikipedia, *wrong*? wtf.
It still confirms that Herenton is bonkers though.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Fieger showed what an ex-factor the Detroit vote is...

...and how it just enjoys confounding the conventional wisdom and polling on election day.  If I remember correctly there was some gambling ballot initiative that spiked the Detroit vote way out of proportion bringing out people who other wise wouldn't have voted and producing a turnout model way different than any polling anticipated.

The real shame was, even though admittedly Engler was favored against anyone, Larry Owen in my opinion was a great candidate as opposed to Fieger who was a disaster every Democrat had to run away from in absolute terror.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...



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