Good news

I wonder if Berry regrets his decision for not running for re-election.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 20:38:59 PM UTC

Johnny Key?

Wasn't he "big" in the 70's?

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 20:45:13 PM UTC

All about the money

and with the new ground rules for third party spending, corporations could swamp a field without it being obvious from a candidate's report.

That, and this is not a good year for elected officials and insiders. This post might be looking really badly predicted in 8 months.

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by: RBH @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 20:55:53 PM UTC

Recruitment fail is fair

But sure, unheralded candidates do sometimes win.  

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 21:06:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly what i wanted to say

Especially in a "good year". Crawford, for example, can be not that great, but he seems to be at least decent candidate. In very good year that alone may be enough.

Smith? African-American Republican in district where only about 20% of population (and much less - in Republican primary) is black? I have strong doubts..

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by: smoltchanov @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 06:13:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Money matters, but recruitment is very important...

Saying it's all about money ignores the importance of recruitment and ground game. The Democrats had a strong bench here and were able to recruit very credible candidates while the GOP came up short. Does this mean this seat is a sure bet for retention? Of course not. But it certainly makes the job easier. Add to this the Democratic advantage in party establishment in this district and I think this is a "Leans Retention" seat.

I think the Citizens United decision could have atrocious consequences when it comes to corporations potentially bankrolling candidates, but there's not any evidence to my knowledge that this is currently happening on a large scale or will happen in a district like this.  

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by: NCDem @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 21:11:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Citizens United bigger impact on Senate/President races?

I just get the feeling that corps would rather take a shot at candidates at Senate or Presidential level. It just seems like ads from i.e.'s would stink too much in congressional districts to do anything except backfire. Just a feeling though.  

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by: nrimmer @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 21:23:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think the ads would stink up almost every race

Such an easy way for your opponent to run negative ads against you for being bankrolled by whatever industry.

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by: Andrew @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 22:01:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

there's a chunk of people who

want a Palin clone over someone credible and qualified. And They're going to turn out in numbers.

The signs about turnout from the base are not good at all and I think people are fooling themselves a bit too much.

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by: RBH @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 21:45:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No

People are aware of it and are rightly concerned. Most recognize that passing HCR will go some way to closing the gap.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 22:06:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think

I said anything more optimistic than "may just save our bacon." I might still rate this a Tossup, between it being open and the national environment, certainly nothing better than Lean D.  

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 21:54:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kinda figured this would happen

Arkansas Democrats still have a huge advantage in local races.  Republicans have a much weaker bench.  In time, that will change (possibly starting with their pickup of a US Senate seat), but in the meantime, if something opens up, top-tier Democrats pile in, and the Republicans struggle to find a good candidate.

They couldn't even come up with a decent candidate for Lt. Gov.  Wipe open race, could have picked anyone from around the whole state.  Nothing.

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by: skaje @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 21:34:13 PM UTC

Before we get too overconfident though...

You can find examples in 2006 where the Dems had "recruiting failures" but managed to win the seat because of the national environment.

I still think this might be the year Arkansas gets away from the Dems. But we'll see.  

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by: markhanna @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 21:39:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Aside from CSP, I can't think of one

Loebsack maybe, but he still raised as much money as Leach did.

Rick Crawford is not just a bad candidate, he's a bad candidate with no money. He's raised a whopping $110k with $62k on hand -- and that's over three quarters. The serious Democratic candidates will raise more than that by the end of the month.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 23:52:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Zach Space, maybe?

And Larry Kissell came close that year (but did not win, which might be to your point).  

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by: markhanna @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 23:58:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Charlie Cook

Has changed this seat from a rating of "Lean R" to "Tossup", which I guess is good news for us although still seems a bit excessive. CQ Politics has moved it from "Tossup" to "Leans Democratic". One less race to worry about, I doubt we can lose this seat unless there's a scandal or really nasty primary election.

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by: possumtracker1991 @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 21:54:44 PM UTC

Until we see polling

Tossup is very fair. That is my own personal standard. Unless the PVI is ridiculously high.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 22:07:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

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by: markhanna @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 00:00:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Correct me if I'm wrong

I looks like statewide AR Republicans filed some dude for Gov, and Lt. Gov, a state Rep for SOS, and left Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer and land Commissioner uncontested.  Is this accurate?

Recruitment fail in AR-1

AR-SEN will be it's own mess, but with the statewide field uncontested why do I suddenly feel optimistic in AR-2. already the most democratic district in the state as the powerhouse that is going to propel the other statewides over the top?

*See Gov. Bebe next to Dem candidate in AR-2 in ads over and over, and over again. Especially if it's the Speaker guy.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 22:19:16 PM UTC

Anyone have any insight into why

those Republican state senators declined to run for this seat?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 23:56:17 PM UTC

AR-03

On the other hand, isn't this rather a recruitment failure for us? Sure, Boozman's seat is conservative, but the three others are, too. We have one candidate, the GOP has 7, so is attorney David Whitaker somebody who can take on Cecile Bledsoe, Steve Womack or Kurt Maddox (the only three that have a shot, in my opinion)?

Just taking a look at the state's senate map, I guess that 7 of the 8 Republican senators are from this district (the 8th being Gilbert Baker, who is unfortunately not giving up his seat). We still at least had the option of courting Randy Laverty better than we did, and Sue Madison never ruled out a run.

And another check: maybe I'm just being stupid. 19 of the 28 Rs in the state house are from this district, which would leave us with only about 6.

Any chance of a race here?

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by: ID Panhandle Dem @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 03:48:54 AM UTC

Different kind of conservative

Eastern Arkansas is conservative, but historically Democratic, while the northwestern corner of Arkansas is historically Republican (check out the 1968 presidential maps -- Nixon cleaned up there, while Wallace won in the rest of the state). It also helps that Eastern Arkansas is where much of the state's black population lives, while the Ozarks are overwhelmingly white (although the Hispanic population is growing in the Bentonville area).

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 13:03:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]