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SSP Daily Digest: 3/9 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Mar 09, 2010 at 8:04 AM EST


  • CA-Sen: Arianna Packard, granddaughter of Hewlett-Packard co-founder David Packard, is slamming Carly Fiorina for "almost destroying" HP. Packard, who had pushed for Fiorina's ouster from the company in 2005, is supporting rival Chuck DeVore in the GOP primary. (P.S. Carlyfornia just officially filed to run.)

  • FL-Sen: Tom Jensen is such a tease:

    We are going to have absolutely brutal numbers out on Charlie Crist tomorrow.

    Here's a little preview: among Republican primary voters 19% would like to see him as Governor a year from now, 14% want him in the Senate, and 56% want him out of elected office.

    If there is any path to his winning office in Florida again - and there may not be - it's as something other than a Republican.

  • NC-Sen: Attorney Ken Lewis scored a pretty good endorsement in his uphill Dem primary against Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham: Rep. Mel Watt (NC-12) has given Lewis his backing. Watt is the second member of Congress to support Lewis; Rep. G. K. Butterfield, another CBC member, had previously endorsed.

  • ND-Sen: Former SoS candidate and businesswoman Kristin Hedger (D) is passing on a run to replace the retiring Byron Dorgan. Still, Dems do have a candidate in state Sen. Tracy Potter.

  • NV-Sen: Huzzah! Harry Reid has officially filed for re-election!

  • AL-05: This is bipartisanship you can believe in, my friends: Dems and conservatives alike, some 400 strong, protested John Boehner and Parker Griffith outside of a closed-door fundraiser the Minority Leader held in Huntsville for the newest, and least-popular, member of his caucus.

  • LA-02: CQ Politics sat down for an interview with state Rep. Juan LaFonta, who is aiming to take down GOP Rep. Joe Cao. (So is fellow state Rep. Cedric Richmond.)

  • PA-06: Doug Pike has proposed a "positive campaign agreement" to Manan Trivedi, his rival for the Dem nomination to take on erstwhile Rep. Jim Gerlach this fall. Trivedi hasn't made a formal decision yet, but his manager said of Pike's offer: "It certainly sounds like someone who's afraid of his own record."

  • SC-05: After Dem Rep. John Spratt's anemic fourth quarter filing prompted renewed speculation that the veteran incumbent may be heading for the exits this year, he's taking some positive steps towards a re-election bid. Spratt's office says that the congressman "intends to run again" and will hold a fundraiser at DNC headquarters this week. (JL)

  • Census: Only one Representative voted against a non-binding resolution to promote participation in the Census last week... did you guess Ron Paul? You guessed right! Memo to U.S. Gov't: Keep your nose out of my gold bullion stash! Be really curious what happens to this fucking weirdo in redistricting. In less wacky Census news, the Census Bureau started sending out advance notification letters to 120 million households today. Research shows that these letters boost response rates.

  • Polling: Jed Lewison has some great visualizations of exactly how stark Rasmussen's "house effect" is.

  • Voting: This is a good bit of news (and shows you why having Dems in charge of Washington still matters, even if they can't seem to get anything done in Congress): The Obama DoJ blocked one of the biggest voting machine makers, Electronic Systems & Software, from purchasing Premier Election Solutions (an arm of Diebold). Had the deal gone forward, ES&S would have controlled 70% of the voting machine market. Hooray for competition!
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    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/9 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 3/9 (Morning Edition) | 60 comments
    Trivedi
    What a microcosm of the state of politics today, and what a dick his his campaign manager is.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    Doug Pike
    Would've just gotten my vote if I lived in PA-6.  What a completely asshole-ish statement by the Trivedi campaign.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    No, Pike's being a douchebag.
    It's a ploy.

    Basically, Pike's only record of having done anything is writing staff editorials for the Philadelphia Inquirer, and I imagine Pike doesn't want anyone trumpeting all of the Republican endorsements and conservative statements to which he's tied over the years.  

    Pike has a bank account; he doesn't have the record of public service and commitment that Manan Trivedi has at a younger age.

    I've been fortunate enough to meet both candidates multiple times.  Trivedi's the better choice, by far.

    [ Parent ]
    Nice.
    Extending an invitation for a positive primary is "being a douchebag."  Dude, you're part of the problem.  People in this country are so wound up in their ideological "teams" that nothing else matters, including civility.  It's why the Republicans can get away with acting like children and still count on a lot of support.

    I don't much give a damn about the choice between Pike or Trivedi.  They both have their good points it seems to me, although I like Pike's warchest a lot better.  But Trivedi ought to be ashamed of his campaign manager, and you ought to give a second thought to what you said in your post.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    If Pike wants to campaign that way, let him.
    He doesn't need to announce that he's doing so, or force anyone else to agree to it.  It's for the voters to decide.

    Really, since there is no legitimate reason why one could question Trivedi's "motivation or qualification to serve" or his "character or family," it's a way for Pike to preemptive defend himself against such questions while ceding nothing.

    Honestly, the best way to cede this district to Gerlach again is to have a low-key, "respectful" primary that doesn't get people excited.  The truth is that contrasts are what excite voters, and Pike's professed magnanimity doesn't help anyone.

    [ Parent ]
    So you're saying that a brusing primary battle helps?
    Honestly, the best way to cede this district to Gerlach again is to have a low-key, "respectful" primary that doesn't get people excited.

    From that quote, it sounds like you're in favor of D primaries which

    -- deplete D campaign coffers
    -- take the focus away from the R opponent
    -- drive up the negatives of D candidates
    -- gives the R opponent campaign material

    [ Parent ]
    I'm in favor of a primary ...
    ... which will demonstrate which of two first-time candidates has the mettle, the smarts and the savvy to win an election.  Moreover, there are no negatives for either candidate which Gerlach himself couldn't find or exploit in a general.  The most important thing right now is to drive up the name recognition of whoever our nominee will be.

    Also, Jim Gerlach won't be signing any pledge.

    [ Parent ]
    And why is that not possible in a "respectful" primary?
    I'm in favor of a primary which will demonstrate which of two first-time candidates has the mettle, the smarts and the savvy to win an election.

    I think in a good competitive primary, especially of first-timers, the candidates would compete to see who can be the best opponent to an R. Both candidates make their points, get their spin to the media, and the candidate with the best general election appeal wins.

    I think it would help us if we had our own version of Reagan's 11th commandment in our primaries.

    [ Parent ]
    But part of the general election appeal ...
    ... requires drawing contrasts against a four-term House incumbent while still gaining votes for yourself.  A primary is a rehearsal for that.

    Again: it's more the "I extend this pledge -- join me" aspect that I find noxious than its actual content.  Let Pike campaign however he wants, and see if it works.

    [ Parent ]
    I do not disagree w/r/t Pike
    I do disagree with the notion that D primaries have to include candidates who attack each other. Drawing contrasts IMO is different.
    [ Parent ]
    Wow you've really got this guy's back.
    "No-one could question Trivedi's motivation or qualification to serve."  He should skip the Democratic primary then and run on the Deity ticket.  Does Trivedi write little notes on his hand like Sarah Palin and God?

    OK, sorry I ever said anything.  You're a brick wall.  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    It's not an attack Pike would make. NT

    [ Parent ]
    His campaign manager raises a good point
    And I'm not sure why you aren't recognizing that Pike is basically trying a political ploy that only an idiot would agree to.

    I don't believe in nuclear campaigns, but some things are open for legitimate criticisms and that applies in Democratic primaries.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

    [ Parent ]
    I recognize
    that it may be, and probably is, a political ploy.  It also worked, as the response from Trivedi is instantly off-putting.  Both uncivil and politically stupid.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    I don't like that Trivedi's campaign manager was wrong on the merits
    Since it is pretty clear, from what I'm gathering, that Pike does have a number of things he'd prefer to hide. I agree that it might not have been politically smart of him (although it's worth pointing out that if you think it's ultimately in your interest to reject the pledge, and I think it is, there aren't that many ways of saying it that don't sound either uncivil or plain ridiculous).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

    [ Parent ]
    Also, as a reminder
    [ Parent ]
    Oh
    the old other side acts like a dick sometimes too, so that excuses my side acting like a dick.  "But Johnny did it too" didn't fly for me in pre-school, and it doesn't fly today either.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    "acts like a dick sometimes too"?
    Try: systematically, deceitfully and unapologetically engaged in corrupt activity on this very site.  And now he wants to preach about honorable campaigning.
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    I have to agree with Adam 100% on this one, for all the reasons stated. I don't want a destructive, apocalyptic primary, but it's naive to think Pike isn't making this offer for selfish reasons.

    I'm also more than a little troubled by the apparent short memories some folks seem to have. Doug Pike's campaign manager engaged in outright lies and deception on this very site, and when confronted, completely stonewalled us. Neither the manager nor Pike himself apologized, even though the question of guilt was certain. It's especially galling seeing as the Daily Kos Orange to Blue page (which I help run) supported Bob Lord last cycle, who Pike's manager also managed.

    I think Trivedi is a better candidate on the merits, but I also think Pike and his manager are disgusting for what they tried to do on this site.

    [ Parent ]
    Really?
    I'm not surprised you think Pike and his manager are disgusting, but you really think Trivedi's campaign manager's statement was right, or even smart politics?

    I was instantly put off by it, and am confident the average voter - who doesn't have your anti-Pike bias -would be too.  Two wrongs don't make a right.  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks DavidNYC
    Thanks for "jarring" my rusty memory.  I remembered there was something shady about Pike, but I couldn't remember what happened.  

    I wouldn't vote for Pike in the primary or the general election (thankfully I live in NC-04).  I wouldn't necessarily vote for Gerlach in the general election if Pike wins the Democratic nod, but there is no way I could support Pike for what he's done on this site in the past.

    In case I forget about what happened, please feel free to remind me.  The older I get, the less I'm able to retain.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    Agree agree agree
    When I first read the Digest this morning, I thought the same thing as Adam and David, that Pike's campaign is offering the peace pipe so they can hide something.

    I remember when Dole's campaign tried to get the Hagan campaign to agree to disavow any outside spending on tv ads.  Was it because she wanted to keep the race local with North Carolina candidates doing the messaging and campaigning, not the DSCC or NRSC, which would certainly cut down heavily on attack ads?  Absofuckinglutely not.  The NRSC was getting steamrolled in fundraising and they didnt want to spend money on what was becoming a bit of a loss cause with Dole.

    No campaign would make an offer like that unless they were the ones who'd benefit most from it.  Like Adam says upthread, if the Pike campaign really believes in no negative campaigning, then they'd be doing it regardless of the other campaigns.

    And what will you all think when he airs an attack ad now since his offer was rejected?  Will it be, well he had to do it so he can win or will you think he's a douche bag for going against what you perceive his convictions to be?  You either end up thinking he sucks or come around to our point and that's that he is doing what he has to do to win, and that's they offered a no-negative campaigning agreement because there is shit on him.

    [ Parent ]
    Sure
    But I do agree with those saying the spokesperson could have worded the statement better.
    [ Parent ]
    eh. it's inside baseball
    Only nerds like us read that sort of thing.
    [ Parent ]
    good grief
    sounds like somebody has an axe to grind.

    Hopefully the majority of Pike and Trivedi supporters aren't this militant otherwise we're going to have OH-Sen redux in PA-6 and I'll have to change my prediction from Dem pickup to Rep hold just because of the impending nastiness of the primary.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    "militant"?
    I'm among the less angry bloggers you'll ever find.  I guess you just have a higher tolerance for treachery w/r/t the netroots than most of us do.
    [ Parent ]
    In defense of my friend StephenCle
    StephenCle has provided a lot of valuable insight on this blog, and he's a guy you can "agree to disagree".  I personally believe that StephenCle is a class act.  StephenCle probably had the same memory as I originally had, and therefore we initially thought you might have an axe to grind.  I know that I was personally wrong.

    I'm sorry for initially thinking the same thing, but you did provide us with valuable evidence that Pike's campaign has a history of shady acts.  For that, I say "Thank You".

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    Census
    Either I'm viewing the wrong piece of legislation, or that WSJ article is wrong...

    http://clerk.house.gov/evs/201...

    NV - 7D, 13R

    Paul was the only nay vote, but Rob Bishop (R-UT) voted Present....

    there's this too
    [ Parent ]
    NY-Sen: Pataki still undecided?
    NY deadline for nominations is VERY late!
    The filing deadline in NY is VERY late. Petitons aren't due until June with state convention usually in late May.

    A big name like Pataki or Rudy could have the GOP nomination for the asking at the Convention if they wanted it.

    There is no reason for someone like Pataki to get in now. The shorter the campaign is the better off he is. Keep things in disarray then ride in as a white knight in the end.

    I wouldn't be suprised to see a big name like Pataki get in to challenge Gillibrand or Cuomo closer to the NYS GOP convention.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks for pointing out that census article.
    My boyfriend and I got the letter yesterday, and he immediately lambasted the goverment for wasting money on the notice letters.  (He's pretty damn conservative.)

    The ironic thing is he's applying to be a census worker today...

    it's funny how
    conservatives and republicans hate big government until it benefits them directly, then it's okay.  Such hypocrisy.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
    [ Parent ]
    The census is a pretty important
    part of U.S. government and redistricting.  And I think most conservatives give it a pass seeing how it is in the constitution.  
    [ Parent ]
    It says there's only 10 questions on the census form this time.
    IIRC in past decades, the form was much longer with lots more questions and more intrusive ones asked.
    [ Parent ]
    OR state Treas
    http://www.blueoregon.com/2010...

    Ted Wheeler, Multnomah Co Chair, appointed through the special election coming Nov 2010. Multnomah Co includes most of Portland.

    He replaces the dearly departed Ben Westlund.

    Today is the deadline for 2010 general election filings. Rick Metsger has already filed.

    Dino Rossi acting coy on whether he'll run against Murray.
    Sounds like Cornyn is making some progres or that at least Rossi likes the attention.

    http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

    NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

    NY-Gov: Cuomo approval sliding amid Paterson scandal
    Didn't they have aq similar slump
    For Schumer which ended up being a blip?
    [ Parent ]
    Ron Paul Facepalm
    Does this moron not know that the US Census is mandated by the Constitution?

    Who are these people that vote for this loser?!

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    Gallup generic ballot
    Registered voters - Dems up 47-44. GOP lead with indies is just 6 points.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/126...

    They suggest the average drop-off with likely voters is about 4 points historically.

    Republicans are more enthusiastic to vote but not by the margins found by Research 2000. Somewhat/very enthusiastic comes out at GOP 67 and Dems 54. This is why HCR must be passed. Do it and with some job creation things won't be so bad come November.

    Another reason why HCR must be passed
    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    I saw that article too
    When I saw Rush's comments, I thought that it could rally our troops.

    If I was Costa Rica, I would strengthen their anti-immigration laws....fast.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    Ha!
    I actually might debate conspiracy's point about HCR being an overall boon for Dems this year (I think the jury is still out), but no one can debate the merits of Rush leaving the country (although come to think of it, that might end up hurting Dems as well by taking away one of their best enemies).  
    [ Parent ]
    Polling is clearer
    Pass a bill and more Dems vote. Everybody against it is voting whatever.
    [ Parent ]
    If anything....
    Passing the bill will increase the overall turnout for the general elections.  Since the other side seems to be highly motivated, I imagine the Dems will prosper more from such passage.  Who the heck knows...Some Dems might actually not vote because the bill is not progressive enough.  But imagine more Dems will be "turned on" than "turned off".

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04
    [ Parent ]
    I'm proposing a new award
    The Susan Bitter Smith Award for candidates who make ridiculously laughable and nasty moves in their attempts to nuke the hell out of their primary opponents.  The award is named after former Arizona State Sen. Susan Bitter Smith, who attempted to destroy the entire multi-candidate Republican field in a 1998 House election by getting two other candidates to go negative on one another, then hilariously claiming she was blameless for setting up the smackdown (see my link above).  The award may be presented at any time to any candidate who merits it.

    I'd like to present the inaugural Susan Bitter Smith Award to Doug Pike, for spending months bashing the hell out of Manan Trivedi using underhanded tactics, then demanding that Trivedi agree to run a clean campaign.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

    Here's a link to the image
    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen IL-Gov
    Ok that's it
    Rasmussen polls are officially worth about as much as Zogby polls, at least this far out from the GE.

    (I also like how he advertises showing Hynes up on Quinn by 6 points...that's a what, 7, 8 point error?)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

    [ Parent ]
    Compare and contrast
    http://www.dailykos.com/statep...

    Somebody is polling the wrong the state.

    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen's poll
    looks like they didn't even poll the entire city of Chicago. I know Brady would never fly with people here. he's nuts.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Hahahaha
    "The new survey finds Brady leading by 17 points among women but just three points among men."

    Absolute bullshit.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    That particular nugget jumped out at me. Maybe they thought his first name was Mike.
    [ Parent ]
    Or maybe
    The ladies thought it was Tom Brady and they just really want a hottie for a Governor?

    Or Scott Rasmussen is full of crap.

    I wonder which one is more likely....

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    This reminds me of what my old science professor used to say.
    In Biology, our professor was trying to explain the scientific method.  He said "I'll give you an example:  if it looks like shit, and it smells like shit, good chance its shit!".

    I don't really believe that's the scientific method, but it was worth a lot of laughs.  So does this poll.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    I don't believe it
    I'm not trying to sound astonished, but I really think this poll is TOATAL BS. The thing is, every almost every Ras poll seems to be BS. Gallup is the most trusted polling source, right? Well Gallup had Obama's approval up yesterday at +6 while Scotty had it at -10! 16 freaking points different! Why doesn't anyone investigate this? I smell something fishy, and am pissed off. I NO LONGER trust Rasmussen!  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    He will claim it is likely voters
    While others are polling registered voters or adults. But the model he seems to be using is really obscene even taking that into account.
    [ Parent ]
    Either Rasmussen is a genius or is way off base.
    It is not only wildly different than other polls but finding margins that just don't smell right.  I can buy Quinn losing.  I don't buy 17 points.

    They are reputable enough I'm not assuming any conspiracy theories.  But I do wonder about the quality of the "likely voter" telephone lists they are using.  I'd be curious if anyone knows how in rough terms they are generating them?  Are they going by the voter roll lists and gathering what phone numbers they can from there?  Or are they using cold call lists (minus those on the do not call registry) and asking questions to screen?  The latter being preferable to the former.

    NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

    [ Parent ]
    I think it is their definition of likely voters
    They are obviously asking determinative questions that remove too many probable Dem voters from their samples.
    [ Parent ]
    SSP Daily Digest: 3/9 (Morning Edition) | 60 comments

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