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NY-29: Massa Will Resign on Monday

by: James L.

Fri Mar 05, 2010 at 3:41 PM EST


From Hotline OnCall:

Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY) will resign Monday at 5pm, a source close to the embattled incumbent tells Hotline OnCall.

Massa has been pressured by House Dems to step aside amid an ethics controversy that caused him to announce earlier this week he would not run for a second term.

So when will the special election be? Check out N.Y. Pub. Off. Law § 42 ¶ 3:

[U]pon the occurrence of a vacancy in any elective office which cannot be filled by appointment for a period extending to or beyond  the next  general  election  at  which  a person may be elected thereto, the governor may in his discretion make proclamation of a  special  election to  fill  such  office,  specifying  the district or county in which the election is to be held, and the day thereof, which  shall  be  not  less than thirty nor more than forty days from the date of the proclamation.

In short: it'll be David Paterson's call. (Or Richard Ravitch's -- who knows who will be the Governor of New York on Monday.)

UPDATE: Reid Wilson has some more details on possible Democratic candidates for the seat:

On the Dem side, Massa's pick appears to be Hornell Mayor Shawn Hogan (D), but he has yet to decide on a bid. Assemb. David Koon (D), though, told county chairs he'll run. And several other legislators are also taking a look at the contest.
James L. :: NY-29: Massa Will Resign on Monday
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NY-29: Massa Will Resign on Monday | 61 comments
NY
Seat is gone.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Probably
Unless of course New York Republicans manage to screw this one up again.

Either way, losing the seat is probably better for us long-term just because it will make it much easier to protect our other incumbents upstate.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
NY
I think scandal plus no bench plus strong republican bench equals lost seat.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
As I said, it's probably a lost seat
But New York Republicans have screwed up a couple of times already and lost two seats that should have been relatively easy pick-up opportunities for them. It's not unreasonable to think that the Republicans screw this one up too.

And like I said, the loss is probably best for us long term, so I'm somewhat hoping to lose the seat now just to stop us from trying to make a dummymander later.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
NY
Koon and Hogan both seem decent, so I suppose a long shot is possible, I just won't hold my breath.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
I don't think its a lost cause yet.
Lets consider the fact that the NY GOP blew two special elections already, they very well could again. And the GOP bench doesn't seem to be that much stronger than Dems, if the current and speculative GOP candidates are any indication.

I will say that the GOP has their best chance of a special election pick up here, and that with this winnable race, I strongly suspect the national GOP organizations will ignore the HI-01 and PA-12, based on the fact that both seats are much more strongly inclined for the Dems.  

[ Parent ]
They will
I have no doubt that the NY GOP will manage to fuck this up again.  
[ Parent ]
The battle of the pessimists!
I see!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
ok
I'm sick of it.  This is the most annoying person on this site.  The vast majority of this person's comments I've seen are an unsubstantiated "Dems are going to lose X seat.". Isn't there a point where the mods should step in once and for all.  It's diminishing my enjoyment of the site and I suspect I'm not alone.  Please for the love of God make this repetetive shit stop!!!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
especially since
He seems to get these obtuse commenst at the top of every thread like this.

Tek, we can just assume you think the seat is lost, ok?

[ Parent ]
NY
Does it help if I think we will easily retain the Hawaii Seat and Murthas seat?

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
not if you
Keep up your obtuse comments.  You know what you're doing.  Noone minds that you have that opinion.  Its that you just say it over and over with no analysis.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
No, it won't help
If you really want to help, keep your pessimistic "the sky is falling" opinions to yourself.  I mean come on, you were doing so well and all of a sudden you started your gloom and doom crap again.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
But this particular seat
is, most likely, really gone nevertheless))) The only way for Democrats to win it i see - if Republicans will suddenly sour on their present favorite candidate Reed (yes, he is not a good fundriser, but, in general - a solid enough candidate), a lot of new Republican candidates suddenly emerge with active participation of external to the district organizations (CfG and others), and then - who knows, who will be Republican nominee. If the Republicans will learn something from NY-23 debacle and join forces around one candidate (presumably - Reed) - i see little chances for Democrats in this district now.
[ Parent ]
the difference between you and tek
Is that you backed up your opinion with analysis instead of writing, "the seat is gone" with no analysis, which tek has done about a hundred times for a hundred different seats.  Noone has a problem with pessimism until it becomes repetitive and inane, with no analytical support.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
In that respect
Tekzilla suffers from the JSmith problem. But officially, that's a call for the people who run this site.

OTOH, smoltchanov is in the mainstream of those of us who just want to analyze. While he comes to different conclusions than a majority of us, the way he discusses is in the mainstream of this site (IMO).  

[ Parent ]
Boy who cried wolf?

[ Parent ]
i agree
Tek offers no analysis...just "the sky is falling" commentary.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Agreed!
Here is just another thread where I was ready to dive into a thread with a ton of comments only to see half of them if not more (I havent finished scrolling) will be responses that say, "No you're wrong shut up" or to some degree.

I dont see why people who contribute to the blog but lead topics astray are banned while someone who does nothing but disrupt threads is not.

I suppose it's all pertinent to the blog and isn't off-topic, which was the crime of the other ones, but eh, just as annoying.  If not more so because it's purposeful annoyance.

[ Parent ]
THIS.

[ Parent ]
Cuomo
Maybe not. Cuomo is popular upstate. If he and Gillibrand run well up state if could help the Democratic candidate in this region.
[ Parent ]
Pelosi wanted this to help with Healthcare vote.
Massa was a no vote on Obamacare. With Deal waiting to resign she needed 217 votes to get it passes which they didnt have. With Massa out the magic number is back to 216.

Having Massa resign is like picking up a vote for Obamacare.

It also makes me think their is more to the sexual harresment charge than they let on and they want him out the door and out of the news ASAP!

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Almost
With Massa and no Deal (which was the political reality earlier this week), the calculus was 216 votes needed with a "no" vote missing and Massa who could possibly be switched.

With Massa and Deal, the calculus was 217 votes with an added "no" vote and a vote that could possibly be switched.

With Deal and no Massa, the calculus is back to 216 votes, but without the possibility of a "no" vote that can be switched back.

So Massa resigning lowers the threshold that Pelosi needs, but it also reduces the pool of prospective "no" voters to switch.

On a broader level, with Hoyer's involvement, it could potentially contribute to the negative political environment against Congressional Democrats and scare those "no" votes deeper into their holes.

[ Parent ]
These closeted queens need to stop harassing their staff
and go on manhunt like everyone else.
What exactly did he do?

We don't know.

[ Parent ]
See, this statement here
This is what makes me slap my forehead, laugh, and go "oh man, we're idiots!"

Go Team Fail!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Massa resigns at the first hint of impropriety
While Charlie Rangel racks up Ethics Committee investigations like gold stars.

This is frankly ridiculous. At least it makes the healthcare vote easier.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Rangel has been in Congress so long
that he probably thinks he owns the seat. Massa just got there. Their psychology is different.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Funny, James
Who knows who will be running New York on Monday?
Bring Back Spitzer
There, I said it.  Its time to stop acting like he was a bad governor.  He was a great AG and as governor just screwed up his own life.  Not his fault Patterson is the worst governor ever.

If Cuomo is too much of a pansy to announce, I want Spitzer in.  Let Pataki and Giuliani try to make a comeback...

I think we're remembering Spitzer
in a weird idealized version.  He had his own problems regardless of the sex thing.  He had bad relationships with the legislature and things were not going so smoothly.

Better than Patterson?  Yes.  Great gov.?  I'm not so sure.  (I know you said great AG, and there I agree.)

[ Parent ]
Popularity isn't the best way to measure how good a Gov is, but Spitzer's was low pre-scandal
In February of 2008 his approval rating according to SurveyUSA was 35%, disapproval 58%.  They had his disapproval at >50% since October: http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
This ad could make you sick to be a NY Dem......
I found this old Massa ad on Youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

As a New Yorker it really makes me sick to see this is who we worked so hard to get.



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[ Parent ]
The tag line should be....
The tag line should be "Together we are going to bang hookers and sexually harrass male staffers."

Watching it now really makes me sick. To see it with the words "trust, respect and integrity" written all over the ad is really just to much.

Things like this can really turn you off to politics.


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[ Parent ]
3 Comments
We really don't know the full story, so I created comments to the Congressman for the three possibilities. They are if he truly has cancer and the scandal is just BS, one for if the scandal is true and he has no cancer and one for if the scandal is true and he has cancer.

*Congressman I have dealt with family members with cancer and know your pain. Thank you for your service, and please keep fighting like you never fought before.

*Massa why would you screw us like this? Do you have any common sense? You dream and dream of being a Congressman and you manage to royally fuck it up. Thanks for nothing!

*I wish you well with your fight, and I hope you make a full recovery. However this doesn't make up for your actions and you will have to live with the personal and political consequences of them.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Alright
let's hope the Repubs can pull a hat trick at royally messing up upstate NY special elections. :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
although
the one thing that bothers me is that this seat is more Republican than NY-20 and NY-23, meaning the Republicans will have to mess it up even worse than the last two.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
One way might be
The fact the chairs will have to pick the most right-wing candidate that steps up in order to avoid them running as a Conservative.
[ Parent ]
Not so Fast
Dont't count the seat lost yet, John Randy Kuhl has hinted his interest in reclaiming his old seat, and would be supremely capable of losing to a Democrat,in light of his own personal baggage.  
From Politico:
[ Parent ]
Kuhl only barely lost in 2008
I imagine he'd probably still be able to win, unless the Democrats come up with a rock star candidate.
[ Parent ]
Crap. So what happens now?
I take it that the county parties pow-wow and select their respective nominees, in the same manner as the other two special elections we had in Upstate NY this past year. Am I correct?

Male, 23, DC-At Large
Also
IF his (albeit vague) version of things is accurate, it really doesn't sound all that horrendous. It certainly doesn't seem in any way comparable with the Foley scandal, though details have yet to emerge so we should probably reserve judgment.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/201...

My guess is that it was truly a combination of the ethics investigation, the cancer, and the overall sucky political environment that led to this decision.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

Last point
Does Paterson (or Ravitch) even need to call a special election at all? I didn't read any specific stipulation to that end in the law.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
Goodbye Eric
Eric Massa is a strange man. I once wrote to him expressing my disappointment about his opposition to cap and trade. He responded personally (points for that). But instead of justifying his position in his own words, he quoted another opponent and then attacked the bill's sponsor, Henry Waxman, my former Representative and a man I respect. I'm not sure how an attack on Waxman was supposed to persuade me that Massa's opposition to cap and trade (like his opposition to health care reform later on) was principled.

In my letter I mentioned that I had contributed a small amount to his campaign through Act Blue. I hoped that would establish a bond and assure him I was in his corner. He responded: "The statement that you contributed to my campaign implies that somehow I owe you something."

So honestly, even without knowing how he treated his staff member, I'm already happy to say "goodbye Eric." I want to add, of course, that I hope he resolves his health issues and lives a long and useful life.

Wow
Do you still have that letter? Can you scan it in?
[ Parent ]
I agree with him
Just because you donate to someone doesn't mean they owe you anything. Isn't that a big part of what is wrong with politics? People donating to candidates, hoping to get something out of it.
I don't think you were saying that you tell him he owes you, but just saying that he's not wrong saying he doesn't owe donors anything.  
[ Parent ]
Rephrased
sounds like you said:

"I'm your friend"

to which Massa replied:

"So?"

[ Parent ]
Isn't there more to this?
Generally speaking, if there's an ethics controversy, the person doesn't run for re-election.

Resigning is kinda...strangely fast.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Could be the cancer
It might be hard for him to fight cancer and a semi major ethics controversy. Stress and cancer don't mix very well. I really can't blame him, during a time like this he should just focus on his health.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
29th
Monroe County (Rochester & suburbs) Executive Maggie Brooks is making noise about running for the seat, but she was very much counting on having until November to put her operation together, especially because she lives out of district.  If Brooks can get the nomination, the seat is definitely gone.  The Rochester suburbs which elected Massa love Maggie, and she'd swamp us in Ontario county where we'd also need to run up the score.  I think it's a challenge for her to get nominated, but I bet you the NRCC starts to lean heavily on folks to hand it to her.

David Koon is a great guy.  His daughter was abducted and killed many years ago, and he got into politics as a result.  He began by representing fairly Republican eastern suburbs of Rochester, but the area has trended a bit more Democratic in recent years.  His son got elected East Rochester mayor at a very young age a few years ago, and it was just a disaster.  It kind of hurt the luster of the Koon name.  I'm not positive that he lives in the district, his house might be up in the 25th.  However, throughout the southern tier, his name ID is near zero.  It would be difficult for him to get elected in such a truncated election calendar.  He might do pretty well in Ontario County.  But overall, Koon is a terrifically smart, attractive candidate.  He just may not fit the district.

I don't know Shawn Hogan, but the setup of the district makes me think that our best shot is with a southern tier Democrat like him.  Someone who is generally known in the lower counties and who can rile up the Rochester suburbs quickly with TV and radio ads.

It's going to be tough, but I'll tell you this- our best shot to keep the seat is if Randy Kuhl is the nominee.  He's already got a negative definition in the district's population centers, will motivate a lot of suburbanites to vote, etc.  A number of counties in the 29th were in his state senate district, and I'd bet he has the loyalty of a lot of the county chairs who will select the nominee.

Also, just the opinion of one local- Eric Massa was a strange, strange dude.  I know he set many a progressive heart aflutter with his foot stomping, but up here he just acted real abrasive and always seemed headed on some kind of crash course.  He wasn't the best politician and whatever his progressive intentions, he voted like a Republican on the big bills.  Don't get me wrong, I'm sad to lose the seat, but either way we won't be in the position of protecting the seat of someone who is IMO not worth it.

Brooks
I can't see her running. 7 of 8 county chairs in the district endorsed Reed yesterday. The only one the didn't is in her county, Monroe. Plus, she endorsed Reed already. I don't see her going back on it, but maybe so.  
[ Parent ]
We're Gonna Need A New Map-Drawing Contest
Throw out those old redistrcting maps from a six weeks back and make up some new ones. It's not entirely a bad thing since it seems like we were drawing things that had the potential to be dummymanders anyway.

This part of upstate seems to be where the population loss or at least population non-gain seems to be most concentrated.

This is all another way of saying that this seat seems like an obvious candidate for elimination in 2012 no matter who wins since they'd likely have the least seniority in the delegation, sort of like the currently vacant PA-12.  


36, M, Democrat, MD-03

yep

I talked to Massa a bit back when he ran the first time.  (He posted on dKos.)  A lot of the district is apparently really pitiful and miserable- the young people have been leaving for years, economically its all in the crapper, so many of the people who remain are relatively old, not well off, and full of anger at government and their situation.

My guess is it gets carved up.  

[ Parent ]
Is this a record?
   Has there ever been a congressman who left voluntarily after serving less than 14 months?!  Massa must be setting some kind of record.

24, Male, GA-05
Nah
Bill Janklow has him beat on that one.
[ Parent ]
What an asshole!
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

So the Democrats are so desperate for a one-vote shift on healthcare that they engineered a story that cost them at least a negative news cycle.  OK Eric.  

That said, the comment that Massa allegedly made sounds like bad locker room humor.  It does not necessarily suggest to me that he's (a) gay or (b) actually coming on to the male staffer.  I guess I would have had to have been there and know Massa better to divine his intention.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Agree
sounds like a joke gone wrong imho, not worthy of the scorn heaped upon him. If this is true he was pushed aside it is quite underhanded manipulation.  
[ Parent ]
What's shocking is..
What's shocking is he is claiming the Dem leadership threaten to throw him under a bus and would offer him no protection and let the stories leak that he is Gay and hit on male staffers unless he voted the way they told him to vote.

Either this guy is a loon or the Dem leadership is really playing for keeps on this.

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[ Parent ]
History suggests loon
The Dem leadership don't have the cajones for that kind of hardball.
[ Parent ]
NY-29: Massa Will Resign on Monday | 61 comments

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