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IN-Sen: In a Highly Competitive Race, Hostettler Outshines Coats

by: DavidNYC

Wed Mar 03, 2010 at 10:09 PM EST


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/22-24, likely voters, no trendlines):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 36
Dan Coats (R): 37
Undecided: 27

Brad Ellsworth (D): 34
John Hostettler (R): 40
Undecided: 26

Baron Hill (D): 37
Dan Coats (R): 37
Undecided: 26

Baron Hill (D): 36
John Hostettler (R): 42
Undecided: 22

Jim Schellinger (D): 34
Dan Coats (R): 39
Undecided: 27

Jim Schellinger (D): 33
John Hostettler (R): 44
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±4%)

This poll went into the field before Indiana Democrats coalesced around Rep. Brad Ellsworth - and before Rep. Baron Hill took himself out of the running. Architect and 2008 Dem gubernatorial candidate Jim Schellinger also won't be our nominee, but the inclusion of his name lets us see how a non-DC name fares. And the bottom line is that it's competitive all around.

Perhaps even more interesting, though, is that lunatic John Hostettler, who was teabagging before they even invented tea, performs better than creaky beltway creature and North Carolina resident Dan Coats. While the CW says we should always be rooting for teabaggers in GOP primaries, Coats' abysmal resume has me questioning that assumption. Hoss really is nucking futs, though, and as a notoriously feckless fundraiser, he probably can't raise nearly as much money as Coats can. I'm torn - I want them both to win!

(Additional discussion in hoosierdem's diary.)

DavidNYC :: IN-Sen: In a Highly Competitive Race, Hostettler Outshines Coats
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Hostettler
There is NO WAY he wins. I'm telling you. We hate him! Conservatives hate the man with a passion. His only base is the Paulists, and they aren't even nuts about him! If Coats is not the nominee, Stutzman will be.  

We'll do a primary poll some time soon
And see if you are right!

[ Parent ]
I think I am
When even Red State can't find anything nice to say against someone running against the big, bad 'establishment', he seems to have a problem.

[ Parent ]
Stutzman
I think people are forgetting that he's even in the race now that Hostettler and Coats have gotten in. I'd laugh if he beat them both, until I realized that he's almost a better candidate.

Either Host or Coats will lose by double digits to Ellsworth anyway, assuming he doesn't Coakley up. When only 1/4 of the state knows who you are and you're already running even with the likely Republican nominee, there's nowhere to go but up.  


[ Parent ]
I'd root for Hostettler to win
Coats's numbers aside, he'll just be a more disciplined candidate and a better fundraiser. I mean really, you don't lose a district like his by 20 points unless you're really bad.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


Bayh's timing
turned out to be absolutely perfect from a Dem. partisan perspective.
The Indiana GOP is stuck with two flawed candidates.
And the Indiana Democratic party have rallied around their man with almost no hard feelings.
All we had was that 24 hour scare when it seemed possible that the nutty cafe owner lady might have successfully got her signatures.

Now Bayh can do us all one more last favor, and help his fellow Dems with some of his massive campaign war chest.


I'm torn
But I'm going with hoping for Coats to win. I think being a lobbyist for banks and forign governments is going to be more damaging than just being crazy.

But I like Ellsworth's chances against either one.  


Hill
For all those that said the only way to win is with conservaDEM Ellsworth, it is interesting to see Hill running the same or better than Ellsworth...I think in November we will see that drinking the "Ellsworth is the only way to win" kool-aid was a mistake.  He is too conservative, never run statewide, hasn't run an election in a tough political environment and doesn't excite the base (unlike Hill).

While I like Baron HIll
It's the first time I've heard the idea that a

blue dog

could excite the Democratic base.... Doesn't Hill like have  a blue dog leadership position?

And he has a lifetime progressive punch score of 73.4 (ranks 234 of 432 members), ref http://www.progressivepunch.or...  


[ Parent ]
Hill
He is the best choice out of the current lot and has been with the base on most of the tough votes.  Is he Anthony Weiner or Tammy Baldwin?  No.  But he has run statewide before, is liked by the unions and the shoe-leather people in Ohio and has both lost and won some tough races.  Ellsworth is all fluff and very rightwing.

[ Parent ]
Ellsworth has a better progressive punch score than Hill
I cited Hill's score. I suggest you look up Ellsworth's score.

If Ellsworth has an undeserved image problem with the base, that's probably to his advantage in Indiana.


[ Parent ]
It's Indiana
The Democratic base there likes Bayh, so that's not a problem. But nationally, Hill (who supported healthcare, although he was wobbly on SCHIP earlier) would get more small donations than Ellsworth and he'd probably go down better in the few liberal and union bastions in the state.

[ Parent ]
Hostettler's conservative base gives him a floor of 40% here
No surprise that he's outperforming Coats, who no one seems to give a shit about. I think the fmr. Senator is gonna have a real problem getting out of a GOP primary here alive. I dunno how many rank-and-file types he can count on to win the nod, especially when there's so little enthusiasm for his candidacy. Assuming Coats continues to implode and Hostettler does score the nomination, I suspect we'll be seeing something like...

Republican - 45%
Democrat - 35%
Independent - 20%

Ellsworth - 15/95/60 = 52%
Hostettler - 85/5/40 = 48%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Hill
Ellsworth is the nominee so the arguement is pointless, but running a pro-Stupak amendment, anti-choice, anti-embryonoc stem cell research, anti-cap and trade, anti-stimulus...etc etc...is no way to get the folks you need to bust their tails for you (like they did for Obama). so why is he running as a Democrat?  i'm confused

Well,
If he's a DINO then he blabbers about those conservative credentials.

If he's a real Democrat, he talks jobs, jobs, and more jobs, and some economy too.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Also, Ellsworth is a sheriff.
Steals the Law & Order thunder there.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
In the current congress
Hill's progressive punch score on "critical votes" is like about 35%. You're saying that would excite the base?!

In this case, I say go with the fresher face.


[ Parent ]
How much does the liberal base matter in this election?
That's an important question. I don't assume that much of the Democratic base in IN isn't centrist. Hoosiers and other knowledgeable folks, please weigh in with your thoughts.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Look
Its Indiana, not California, we won't get an Al Franken in there, especially in a cycle that could hurt us dems badly.  I'm not too worried about his bluedogged-ness.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
I think Ellsworth will be maddening for liberals
But he'll be a damn sight better than Hostettler or Coats.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
He's running as a democrat
because he is a Democrat.

Hope that clears that up.


[ Parent ]
Hill
is my Congressman, and a great one. However he comes with much more baggage than Ellsworth. Also the last progressive Senator we had got beat in 1981 by Dan freaking Quayle. I know many pro-Stupak amendment, anti-choice, anti-embryonic stem cell research, anti-cap and trade, anti-stimulus democrats in Indiana. I'm not one of them, but they make a big percent of the electorate, and you get used to voting for them. Indiana isn't going to elect a Barbra Boxer or Al Franken; sorry it isn't going to happen. Neither Ellsworth or Hill are not going to drive out the base, John Hostettler is!

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Typo
Take out not between are and going. Sorry

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Agreed.
The only Dem congressmen who would get a smaller share of the vote than Hill if he ran would be Visclosky or Carson. Also, Hill has already lost statewide once (to Coats, no less), though it was long enough ago that most probably won't remember.

I'm okay with Ellsworth given his stance on economic issues and the fact that he'll probably hold the seat for the Dems for decades once he's in. The only downside is if Lugar retires in 2012, we've already got our best statewide nominee in the other seat. Bayh will probably use his $15 mil to clear the race for Governor, so I wouldn't be surprised if come 2013 we're represented by Ellsworth and Pence.

As long as we've got one guy who sometimes stands up for Not Big Business (even if he's a closet fundie), that's better than none in my book.


[ Parent ]
I feel good about this race...
I don't want to count my chickens 8 months before an election, but I think we've easily got a better than 50/50 shot to hold this seat. Coats and Hostettler are too damaged to win against a figure like Ellsworth. I know he's worse than Bayh on a number of social issues (his vote against stem cell research gives me major pause), but I can't help but feel good about where we stand in this race.  

He is worse on social issues,
which is why we might get a lot of moderate GOP crossover, especially if Hostettler is the nominee. He's also much better on a lot of economic issues than Bayh given his blue-collar populist background. (I mean, for God's sake, the guy worked in the paint department of Sears to help pay for college. That's the sort of story he should really be playing up.)

Bayh is a pretend conservadem populist. Ellsworth is almost the real thing. I just hope he doesn't take it too far and join the Family or something after he's elected.  


[ Parent ]
Hostettler doing better doesn't surprise me..
...given the truly awful Coats rollout.  He also seems like the type of cardboard establishment candidate tailor made for someone like Hostettler to upset in a Republican primary.

Coats 2010 reminds me of Mondale 2002.  An idea way past it's prime.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


I don't care if Hos or Coats win the primary
Ellsworth will catch on fire in Indiana and will win the general election.  He might not win the race with Bayh's previous margin of victory, but he will still win.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


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