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GA-07: Linder Will Retire

by: James L.

Sat Feb 27, 2010 at 12:38 PM EST


Another Republican decides that it's quitting time:

Rep. John Linder (R-GA) will retire at the end of this term, according to local media reports, finishing an 18-year career notable for a rough stint as chair of the NRCC.

Linder, who represents a solidly GOP district on the northeastern outskirts of Atlanta, has served in public office since winning a seat in the GA House in '74. After winning his House seat in '92 by narrow 51%-49% margin, he never faced a serious challenge again.

A longtime ally of ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich, Linder took over the NRCC in during the '98 cycle, when Gingrich was speaker. But the public sided with Bill Clinton after the GOP Congress impeached him, and GOPers lost 5 sets. Shortly after the election, Gingrich resgned, and Linder lost the NRCC chairmanship to then-Rep. Tom Davis.

Linder's district, based in rapidly-diversifying Gwinnett County, saw a pretty substantial shift towards the Democrats over the last two Presidential cycles. While Bush cleaned up in this CD, winning the district by 70-30 in 2004, Barack Obama closed that margin to 60-39 four years later. However, those demographic shifts won't be enough to put this open seat in the competitive column this year. We'll have to wait and see what configuration this district will have after the next round of redistricting.

(Hat-tips: Rural Dem and SSP user TheUnknown285, who has long guessed in the comments that Linder was nearing retirement.)

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James L. :: GA-07: Linder Will Retire
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GA-07: Linder Will Retire | 35 comments
Downballot implications
I'm going to repost the comment I made a few minutes ago in the open thread:

We should definitely put some sort of effort into this seat, as well as Balfour's.  We probably won't win either one, but it may set us up for something else later on, either in those seats or in down ballot seats by allowing Democrats to build a resume.  

I wonder how much it also helps us at the state house level.  It looks like State Rep. David Casas (R) is in Balfour's district, so I wonder if he may want to step up, especially considering he had a tough re-election last year and it doesn't look much better for the future considering the part of Gwinnett he's in, which is getting more minority and more Democratic.  

Ditto former State Rep. John Heard (R).  Maybe he declines another run at State Rep. Lee Thompson (D), the guy who beat him.  Lawrenceville is going to be a tough area for a Republican to represent long-term.  Maybe Thompson will go instead for the more Republican State Senate district.



Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Typo in the diary.
Gwinnett has two n's and two t's (first sentence after the blockquote).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Thanks!
Fixed.
[ Parent ]
Redistricting implications?
Metro Atlanta is very likely getting a new seat. With a new R incumbent up for reelection, the Republicans are now more likely to try and play it safe than to grab the new one. But I would expect them to try anyway.  
Here's a comment I wrote a few weeks ago about redistricting Georgia.
I think Georgia could be a huge problem for the Republicans, especially in Metro Atlanta*.  
1. Scott and Lewis' districts look to contract, leaving lots of mostly Democratic voters (and mostly minority voters) free.  

2. GA-07 is shifting out from under Linder.  
2.a. You could continue the current strategy of having GA-04 absorb more of the Democratic parts of Gwinnett County.  
2.b. However, if Johnson is absorbing more of GA-05 and GA-13, then he can't absorb more of the Democratic parts of Gwinnett.
2.c. With GA-10 needing to expand, the ability to add rural areas to GA-07 is more limited.
2.d. Even if you did have rural areas to add, Gwinnett as grown so much, you can't really add a lot.
2.e. You could add exurban areas but you're starting to get into the turf of other Republicans.  
2.e.i. If one of the Republicans from Hall County wins GA-09, then that may take that county off the list.
2.e.ii. Go north into North Fulton, and your dealing with Tom Price.  
2.e.ii.a. Price's district itself is starting to look like a ticking time bomb as the DeKalb portions are already 40% Democratic (and that was against an also-ran) and Sandy Springs went like 45% for Obama.  
2.e.ii.b. You take Republican parts of Price's district away, where are you going to make up the difference?  Drive him further into DeKalb, into the even more Democratic portions?  Into Atlanta?  
2.e.ii.c. Take up more of Cobb County and you risk drawing Gingrey out of his district.  
2.e.ii.d. Going north doesn't work because you'll have to take A LOT of land area and may end up bisecting GA-09.  Again, if the new representative there is from Hall County, then they'll have no where to go, other than to force Broun and the new rep into the same district.  If the new GA-09 is from the western part of the district, you'll have to run him further down the border, taking up lot's of Gingrey's district, risking forcing Gingrey into the same district as either GA-09 or Westermoreland's district.

3. The new district will be mostly or entirely within Metro Atlanta.  The question becomes: where?  
3.a. If Linder and the GA-09 representative are taking up much of the white exurban areas, then you're left with the far more Democratic middle-ring suburbs South of Atlanta.
3.b. Same thing if GA-04 takes on more of Gwinnett: it then can't take on Rockdale County.
3.c. Again, same thing if GA-13 contracts, leaving its Henry areas free.
3.d. If the Middle Georgia districts are having to pick up more area, then the Republicans' ability to weight the South Atlanta suburbs down with white Republican areas becomes more limited as those areas are getting thrown into GA-10, GA-03, etc.

4. At some point down the road, the growth of Kennesaw State University in Gingrey's district is going to cause him trouble, at the very least, reducing the parts of Cobb suitable for Republican districts.

5. Most of the Democratic areas of Metro Atlanta are contiguous (basically) and large.  The ability to crack and pack is limited.

6. How long into the future can even the white suburbs be reliably Republican?  Outside of diversifiction, growth issues (e.g. need for environmental protection) and social moderation (higher education, more contact with gays, weakening of the church as a central focus) are cited as reasons for the suburban shift toward Democrats.  That may not be an issue now, but it will be down the road.

(*I use the Census-defined version of Metro Atlanta, which encompasses 28 counties.)

As I was typing that, I was wondering if it sounded like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
The GOP impeached Clinton after the election
It may be the public sided with Clinton, but the impeachment vote was held anyway in December 1998.


Progressive New Jersey news at Blue Jersey.
Huh?
n/t
[ Parent ]
Nevermind I didn't read the block quote fully
Now I get the context
[ Parent ]
This is the difference with Dems
Republicans getting out at the best possible moment to hold their seat. If only Dennis Moore and others had followed the lead of Darlene Hooley two years ago then this cycle might not look so bad.
That's a little unfair.
There were plenty of Republicans who quit in 2006 and 2008, giving us pick up opportunities (and pickups): Warner, Domenici, Allard, Boehlert, Hyde, Mark Green, Nussle, Mark Kennedy, Regula, Pryce, Pearce, Heather Wilson, Ric Keller.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Maybe
But how many of those left over fear of losing themselves?
[ Parent ]
Does it really matter?
Their leaving harmed their party, regardless of whether they did it out of ambition (unfulfilled, I might add), personal reasons, or electoral fear.  Many of them called it quits knowing that the coming election would be bad for their party already.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Sure it matters
There was talk of Dennis Moore retiring in 2008. If he gone through with it then the chances of holding his seat would have been evens at worst. Baird is in the same boat.
[ Parent ]
Do you think we get anymore House retirements?
As long as we dont get any more retirements in competitive or Lean R districts, we should be able to keep the House, even if only by a couple of seats.  
[ Parent ]
Delahunt maybe
See Advertise Liberally left hand sidebar.
[ Parent ]
There was no reason for either Moore or Baird to retire
They would have held those seats easily.  They should have waited until 2012, where Democrats likely would hold the seats.  
[ Parent ]
That is my point entirely
People retiring now because they are afraid to lose or at least can't be bothered running a harder race than usual thus in all likelihood handing the seat to the GOP. I'm not suggesting they should have retired in 2008 because there was any possibility of them losing. I am suggesting that if they had done so back then it would have been easier to hold their seats without them than it will be this year.
[ Parent ]
That's a BS comment and you know it.
In the '06 and '08 cycles there were a ton a GOPers retiring because of fear of getting booted, why aren't you ripping them as well. Fact of the matter is they all do that because no one wants to get defeated. This shit happens all the time. As for Dennis Moore, he retires next cycle instead of this cycle, who cares? Moore has had one cycle where he won with more that 60 percent of the vote and odds are in '12 we lose hat sear because every year he always got compeition and walked away by the hair of his butt.

As for Hooley, stop bringing her up. She was nothing but a DINO that was hated by alot of Dems and her predcessor Kurt Schroder is alot more liberal than her so there was an improvement in that Salem based district.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
I stand by it
The reason I keep bringing Hooley up is simple - if she had run in 2008 and retired now it would be much more difficult for Schroder to hold the seat. Sure, there were Repubs who hit the showers during the last two cycles for the same reasons but that was then and this is now. I think the point is fair but you are entitled to disagree.
[ Parent ]
Your absolutely entited to stand by yoir opinion
And yes your right I am entitled to disagree, which I will. I just don't like you bringing up Hooley because she was a spineless DINO that's all.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I dont even think you disagree with him, Daylin
Nor others who may have attacked Conspiracy (im not going to hit the back button and check).  All you guys have said is, well that happens all the time so suck it up.  And what Conspiracy is saying is, its stupid that politicians do that.  

Not seeing how someone can disagree with, I wish our Democrats wouldnt retire because they may lose because all they do is make that more likely and also the idea that it would be a lot better for our incumbents who want to retire soon to do so in cycles where we are favored.  Hooley pretty much word for word said, I dont want to do this my whole life and this seems like the best cycle for the Democrats to be able to hold my seat.

And why the hell would Conspiracy criticize the GOP for not helping their party?  Let them screw over their friends in Congress with poorly-timed retirements for all we care.

And I said the same thing quite a while back; it'd be nicer if our Democrats were better team players at times and had chose to retire if they knew they wanted to soon to have done so in 2008 when it was obviously going to be a big Dem year.  Hell, hold-out til 2012, please.

[ Parent ]
Keller didn't retire, Grayson beat him.

[ Parent ]
Linder retirement
While this retirement doesnt look good on paper (due to it being yet another GOP retirement) Linder is actually doing a favor to the GOP by retiring now instead of 2012. As the GOP is much, much likelier, this cycle compared to next, to not only hold this seat but not break a sweat. Due to the political environment, of course.  
Sorry
I should have read the other posts before posting this as a new subject. As this subject is already under discussion. My bad.
[ Parent ]
Why can't we have somebody like Charlie Dent or Bill Young throw it in?
I'd love to hear retirement news in a seat where we have a good chance of a pick up.

It's strange how all these strongly GOP seats with longtime incumbents are opening up when folks like Charlie Cook would have us believe the GOP is on a collision course with regaining the House majority. I'd want to stick around and enjoy the spoils of the victor for a term or two.

The only open GOP seats where we look to have better than even odds of a pick-up are IL-10 (Kirk) and DE-AL (Castle). Even then those seats are vacant because the incumbents moved up to their respective Senate races, making those more important races harder for us to win.

I'm not worried about retaining IL-Sen
I think Alexi will do fine againist Kirk, it's DE-Sen i'm concerned about.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
That's the counter-strategic thing to do
It's strange how all these strongly GOP seats with longtime incumbents are opening up when folks like Charlie Cook would have us believe the GOP is on a collision course with regaining the House majority. I'd want to stick around and enjoy the spoils of the victor for a term or two.

If you believe your party will do well in the elections, it's best to retire now, rather than in another cycle when they may do worse.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
that is true
but if you're looking out for yourself, as most of these people are, you might as well hang around if you have a good shot at ending up a subcommittee chairman on Ways and Means (like Linder would have been).
[ Parent ]
this is an interesting district ...
according to this diary here from a few months back, it's the fastest changing district in the country in terms of racial composition:

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Republicans are said to be recruiting former Atlanta Brave John Smoltz
http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Smoltz would be scarry
[ Parent ]
I met Smoltz once, didn't seem like a politician
From what I've heard he's very private and lives way outside the district in a mansion in a elite country club in Cherokee County (GA-06).
[ Parent ]
Smoltz is out.
http://blogs.ajc.com/political...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
We now have a State Senate pickup opportunity.
State Rep. David Casas (R) is going to run for Balfour's senate seat.  Casas represents are diversifying area that, if memory serves me correctly, was pretty close in its presidential vote (albeit for McCain).  Allen Burns, who incidentally ran against Linder in 2006, held Casas to under 55% in 2008.

http://www.talkgwinnett.net/in...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

State House, I mean


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
GA-07: Linder Will Retire | 35 comments

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