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SSP Daily Digest: 2/18

by: Crisitunity

Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 3:06 PM EST


AZ-Sen: John McCain's various Republican establishment friends keep showing up in droves to give him a boost in his primary fight against J.D. Hayworth. Today, it was the turn for former Tennessee senator and brief presidential primary rival Fred Thompson, who awoke from his slumbers long enough to give McCain the thumbs-up.

KS-Sen: Wow, things are actually happening in Kansas. Not that it seems likely that Democrats are going to be in a position to make either the governor's or senate races there competitive, but at least they're filling the holes with credible candidates. In the wake of state Sen. Tom Holland getting into the gubernatorial race for the Dems, now Kansas City-based state Sen. David Haley is making noises about running for Senate. He'll make a final decision within the month. Former newspaper publisher Charles Schollenberger is already a candidate, but Haley sounds like an upgrade.

ND-Sen: Kristin Hedger, a 29-year-old businesswoman in North Dakota who lost the most recent Secretary of State race, is floating her name for the Democratic nod in the Senate race. She says she'll defer to former AG Heidi Heitkamp if she gets in, but is interested in the race if not. State Sen. Tracy Potter is already in the race for the Dems. (And yes, it sounds like she's aware about needing to be 30 to be a Senator; she'll be 30 by swearing-in day.)

NV-Sen (pdf): The legacy media keeps treating the GOP primary in Nevada like a two-way fight between Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, but I'm going to keep maintaining that former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle is the real one to watch here (seeing as how Lowden gets tarred with the "RINO" label and is especially loathed by the Paulist set). A straw poll conducted during the Clark County Republican Party Central Committee meeting several weeks ago supports that idea, as Angle finished first, with 49 votes out of a total of 202. Tarkanian and Lowden were still, of course, right in the thick of things, at 48 and 46 respectively. In a bit of a surprise, Some Dude named Bill Parson was a solid 4th with 24 votes. (Parson seems to be working the hardcore teabagger angle. And check out the flattop - shades of Bob Conley all around.) Another potential wrinkle for the GOP: Sen. Jim DeMint, self-appointed kingmaker on the extreme right, while speaking at CPAC, wouldn't rule out supporting third-party Tea Party candidates where the GOP fails to nominate "strong" candidates - and he explicitly mentioned one state: Nevada. Recall that the Tea Party just sprang into existence as an official 3rd party in Nevada, and already have a candidate lined up (Jon Ashjian).

NY-Sen-B: I'm still chuckling over Mort Zuckerman's trial balloons regarding the New York Senate race... but then, I was also chuckling about Harold Ford Jr. at first too. The super-wealthy publisher Zuckerman has gotten some encouragement from state party chair Ed Cox to look into running. Still, Cox is also encouraging other entrants (like Orange County Executive Edward Diana) as well, even while a number of county-level party chieftains have started lining up behind port commissioner Bruce Blakeman.

OH-Sen: The DSCC is starting to play offense against ex-Rep. Rob Portman, hitting the former Bush budget director, ardent free trader, and all-around consummate insider with a playful new website: "Mr. Portman's Neighborhood," conveniently located at the corner of K Street and Wall Street. (Which, seeing as how we spent an inordinate amount of time here thinking about redistricting, only served to remind us of this 2006 article from The Onion.)

UT-Sen: Even though Club for Growth hasn't settled on which primary opponent to Bob Bennett they want to back, it seems like Dick Armey's FreedomWorks has made up their minds. They'll be backing Mike Lee, who despite his conservative legal establishment pedigree (son of former Solicitor General Rex Lee, and former clerk to Samuel Alito) has been reaching out to the tea party platoons.

HI-Gov: Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann is operating in a kind of legal limbo for now, and his gubernatorial primary rival, Rep. Neil Abercrombie, is crying foul. Hannemann has opened a campaign account (which has $2 million in it) and, as such, is listed as running for governor with the state's Campaign Spending Commission, and he's actively campaigning around the state. However, despite the state's resign-to-run law, he's staying in his current position as mayor, as he doesn't have to resign until he actually files to run with the state's Office of Elections.

NY-Gov: This is the weirdest endorsement I've ever read (although, where Ed Koch and David Paterson are concerned, I wouldn't expect anything else); in fact it may be more of a diss than an endorsement. At any rate, I'll just let Koch speak for himself: "I am for him, in effect, out of sympathy for his being in a Kakfa-esque situation.' You can't do this to people, use rumors to destroy them...But I'm not really for him."

PA-Gov: As he's been hinting for a few weeks now, Scranton mayor Chris Doherty finally ended his long-shot Democratic gubernatorial bid, plagued by weak fundraising. He's still looking to move on from his mayoral gig, though, and instead he's going to run for the state Senate seat being vacated by long-time Dem Robert Mellow. (He'd also apparently considered the Lt. Governor slot, but that option seemed closed after the state party endorsed former Philadelphia controller Jonathan Saidel by a wide margin.) Meanwhile, Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato seems to moving closer to something approaching frontrunner status with another big labor endorsement, this time from the United Steelworkers.

DE-AL: Republicans had apparently been pinning hopes on wealthy businessman Anthony Wedo in order to help them retain Delaware's at-large seat, vacated by Rep. Mike Castle and soon to be occupied by Democratic ex-LG John Carney. Wedo won't be running, though, leaving another (and apparently less wealthy, which would explain the NRCC's seeming indifference to him) businessman, Fred Cullis, as the only GOP face in the race.

PA-12: Here's a surprise: state Sen. John Wozniak, a longtime Johnstown ally of Rep. John Murtha and always at the top of the list when successors were discussed, has decided not to run in the special election to replace Murtha. I wonder if that gives some credence to this article from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (not Pittsburgh's "real" paper, but rather the local mouthpiece for the right-wing Mellon/Scaife crowd), which made some provocative allegations: that both parties were basically prepared to write this depopulated district off, in preparation for its dismantling during the 2012 redistricting process. Rumors are that the GOP wouldn't launch a top-tier effort and that Murtha's widow, Joyce, would hold the seat for the three years until its elimination (and, according to the article, "Democratic leaders" say she's emerged as the leading contender) - so for a key Murtha ally like Wozniak to stand down suggests there's some truth to this. Notwithstanding this seeming master plan, though, former GOP state treasurer Barbara Hafer and Ryan Bucchanieri remain in the hunt for the Dems.

CA-LG: I'm surprised that San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom would want to give up being executive of a major city in exchange for a do-nothing job with a fancy title, but maybe he sees that as a better stepping stone to becoming Governor someday (although he should ask John Garamendi how that ever worked out). Bolstered by polling giving him a big edge in the LG race, he's filing a ballot statement to run and is in the process of reassembling a campaign team.

Polltopia: Nate Silver weighs in on the great Firedoglake/SurveyUSA debate of '10 (with what's hopefully the last word on the matter), saying that he doesn't see anything "untoward" going on here, although methodological choices seem to add up to some pro-GOP house effects.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/18
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Wow, Arizona
This better be one hell of a race if you guys can find stories about it almost every single day now.

JD Hayworth
It's because JD Hayworth brings the crazy and McCain is WALNUTS!

And everyone likes good news for John McCain...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
PA-12
I don't care if it is gonna get axed. The GOP would be crazy not to go all out for a headline grabbing pickup.

Here's one I think we're gonna win
. . .subject to polling that says otherwise.

Strange that no one's given it a workup yet.


[ Parent ]
Well
I thought it was crazy when so many tea baggers where rooting for Hoffman in Ny 23, I didn't question it though, I just sat back and happily watched them do there thing.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
their major candidates are backing away
Like Irey, who's looking at a future State Senate run instead.  Meanwhile, looks like fmr Lt Gov Mark Singel will also seek the Dem nod -- though it's unclear whether he or Hafer (or anyone else) will back out of the general primary if not anointed for the simultaneous special.

[ Parent ]
If Sharron Angle can barely win a straw poll, she ain't winning in a Republican primary


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Kansas Sen!
Hooray, although we technically have a warm body in the Senate race, state Sen. Haley would definitely be an upgrade.

That said, if Haley wants to run for higher office, why not try for the easier race in KS-03 rather than be the statewide sacrificial lamb (which he would be unless Tiahrt pulls an upset and even then it'd be a very uphill battle)?

Unless Haley knows that we have a candidate emerging soon... (fingers crossed)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


David Haley
Haley isn't even taken seriously in WyCo.  He can't win in KS-03, KS-Sen, or anywhere else.  He makes some of our looniest look sane.  I remember him showing up at coordinated campaign offices asking for people to carry his bags and offering 5 bucks.  His only real claim to fame is that literary great Alex Haley is his uncle.  He underperformed "Generic D" democrat Bonnie Sharp in 2006.  The more people hear him, the less likely they vote for him.  We better hope it isn't Haley

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
Uh oh.
Oh crap. I remember this guy now. I just saw state Sen. Some Dude and was like, well, he can't be that bad, right? Yeah this is not good. I withdraw my previous comments.

Um....at least there'll be a primary with Schollenberger? Oy....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Do I know you from the campaign?
shoot me an e-mail if you were involved with the KDP, D-Mo, or the coordinated campaign
jeffesparza@gmail.com

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
For the record
No, everyone, for the official SSP record, I am not now, nor have I ever been, any type of employee of a political party, nor of any political candidate. I kinda technically work for the MSM.  Booooo, hisssss!!!  

However, I would like to point out that Overland Park Mayor Carl Gerlach has never declared that he's a Republican...and he's already a self-identified moderate = RINO = OMG = Democrat = holds the seat 4eva. So says....

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Seriously, y'all, probably stronger than Marinovich or Reardon, for reals. OP had 170,000+ citizens who elected Gerlach handily to a second term in April 2009.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Before anyone gets too excited about the Jim DeMint Nevada story...
This was the final graph in the Roll Call story:

"I don't have any plans in being involved with any third party. ... I have no interest in a third party," he said. DeMint said he would back GOP nominees for the Senate irrespective of if he had endorsed them in their primaries.  


Not totally sure that Haley is much of an upgrade
he lost by huge margins for Secretary of State on 2002 and 2006 and is as close as you can get to a frequent candidate for a guy holding office.

That, and this is a bad year for people who hold office and are seeking to move on up. Illinois' primary seems to be a validation of that.

Neither Dem has a shot in Kansas, but Haley is not automatically better.


Yeah
I still have KS Governor as likely republican and the Senate as Safe republican.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Louisiana Man Declares Run for President in 2012
And no, its not Bobby Jindal
http://www.ireport.com/docs/DO...

I
have to say that I have no idea what the people who left the following replying were talking about.

you sound good to me could be worse than the elitiest obama harvard grad and his collegues that go on a killing spree if they dont get there way =

How superior are they!! i use to thing obama was a disgrace to Harvard but after the killing spree ! he falls right into the Harvard Elitiest!!!

WTF is that person talking about?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


[ Parent ]
If I understand your question
They're talking about Amy Bishop, the unhinged UA Huntsville biology professor who shot and killed several members of her department last week. Bishop's PhD was from Harvard.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02...


[ Parent ]
Oh
wow. Now the teabaggers believe that Harvard allows people to get their Masters in the art of Murder. I guess the University of Texas hands out degrees the art of crashing planes into Federal Buildings now then.

Sorry to be a little off hinged with the comment, I just had to respond to that.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
LOL read this fox news study
that finds college makes you liberal.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


[ Parent ]
Cook Political Report makes major update
I don't think anybody has posted this yet:

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

http://www.cookpolitical.com/c...

The Cook Political Report changed the ratings for 25 races, all of them in the GOP's favor. It looks like they mainly upgraded Republican incumbents who some thought would have tough races in 2010, like Erik Paulsen and Don Young.

They also moved Delaware to Likely Republican. I know a lot of SSPers thought that Solid was excessive, and I tend to agree.


NY-4: Columnist may challenge Carolyn McCarthy for Dem nod
He's thinking of running as a GOPer


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Don't support Carrie Bradshaw, she's in bed with real estate developer John James Preston.
Oh, wait, the Jewish Star.

[ Parent ]
Lol.
(Wait, Big had a middle name?)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Scotty
strikes again

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Thompson leads by 5

Feingold is under 50% against third tier republicans.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Gees
Thompson is like Dianne Feinstein here in California. There's all this buzz that Thompson will run for the senate but he keeps swatting down that idea like Feinstein with the whole governor thing.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
47/52 approval ratings for Obama in Wisconsin?
Yeah right (unless Obama's national approval is in the low 40s, I doubt it).

I'm really getting tired of Rasmussen...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Don't count out Wall
He's not exactly third-tier. He already raised 250k quickly and he's a self funder with TV ads already. However, I don't see him being that close to Feingold yet. But, I think that PPP poll from November had Feingold below 50 against Wall and Westlake. Let me go check.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, PPP had similar #'s
Feingold also holds solid leads against a couple of
minor Republican candidates- 47-32 over Dave Westlake and 48-34 over Terrence Wall.

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

[ Parent ]
Sorry I
just assumed, because I have never heard of him. I wonder if Feingold will ever have an easy election, he always seems to have a tough fight. 2004 wasn't so bad, but you'd think he would be a bit more liked.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
FL-05: Ginny Brown-Waite to make "Major Announcement"
Per CQ:
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

Another Florida retirement?

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.


Maybe
she will run for Senate. It would be a step up from Meek.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
She's
a Republican. Who endorsed Marco Rubio to boot.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I am stupid
I was thinking of Debbie Wasserman Schultz.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Any bench there?
Unless we have a really popular state legislator, sheriff, or something I don't see us having much of a shot there.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I
doubt we get the seat, but I like to see some republican retirements to counter the democratic ones.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
That's good but
We know if 100 Republicans and 1 Democrat announced their retirements tomorrow the narrative would still be "Democrats fleeing the sinking ship.". Remember how pundits said how Dodd's retirement was a body blow to the Democratic majority?  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I noticed that, no doubt
Very evident of the MSM's suck job at actually reporting the truth at times.

[ Parent ]
really hope it's retirement
From last July:  "Last week Democrats released a health care bill which essentially said to America's seniors: drop dead," said Waite.

[ Parent ]
I think
that's even crazier than Tom Coburn's comment on the senate floor: "I have a message for you seniors, your gonna die sooner."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
CA-GOV: Jerry Brown scares Democrats after delivering rambling speech
http://www.sfbg.com/politics/2...

As a once and future Californian this really unnerves me.  Brown's clearly the best person running for Governor but if he turns in more awful performances like this we may be sentenced to four more years of disaster.  Let's hope he doesn't further copy the campaign performance of another certain state attorney general...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Reads like a warning
Be prepared next time.

[ Parent ]
We had some warnings about Coakley we didn't follow
Her statement in the primary that she has foreign policy experience because she's visited her sister overseas for instance.  

To be fair Brown is much more battle tested than her.  Still though, he needs to fix this kind of thing quickly.  I don't know how polished Meg Whitman or Poizner will be, but this is just bad.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Brown
should hire a speech writer. He sorta sounds like me, he know what he wants to say, but he can't put it into words or beats around the bush because he doesn't know those two words that zooms straight to the point. He should stay away from stump speeches for a while.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I think any candidate for major office should have a speech writter
Obama's as good as they come when it comes to writting his own stuff and as he proved to the House GOP he's great off script, but he has some good writters behind him too.  

Frankly, no candidate should be improvising his/ her major speeches, or using just rough notes.  And even if s/he is a great writter there's a million other important things to compete with their time.  I'd hope anyone running for House or above would have a speech writter.        

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Warning meaning
He wasn't prepared for this particular appearance. So he needs to prepare better next time.

[ Parent ]
Well
that's better than Meg "let my money do the talking" Whitman constantly dodging debates and all of that wonderful stuff.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Better to be silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt
Debate dodging is obviously worse than this ethically but politically I don't think so, especially relatively early in the race.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Good ole Gov. Moonbeam.
But seriously how much of Brown being the "strongest" candidate is pure name recognition? He's been so over the place over the years I have really no idea who he is or what he stands for.  Will the voters?

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Sabato's Crystal Ball
"All in all, the Crystal Ball projects that Republicans would gain 27 seats if the election were held today."

http://www.centerforpolitics.o...

That was me snatching Larry's hand away.


Hayworth on McCain
"If you want to see how politicians undergo campaign-year conversions, you've got my friend," Hayworth said before pausing. "I hate using that term, because he uses it all the time -- you have my senior senator, John McCain," Hayworth said.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...


SurveyUSA polls CA/OR/WA/KS...
http://www.surveyusa.com/50Sta...

The relevant numbers for this cycle...

Barbara Boxer - 47/43 (not great, but she can win with this)
Patty Murray - 43/50 (very troubling)
Ron Wyden - 50/37 (perhaps Rasmussen's 49% isn't too far-fetched after all)

Note that Wyden actually enjoys rather curious, albeit kinda lukewarm, bipartisan support, with 36/69/42 approval among GOP/Dem/Indies. Boxer is very unpopular among Indies (31/60), but a 24% approval among Republicans makes up for some of that bleeding. Murray's internals by party are almost identical to Boxer's, but they have Dems projected to make up 10% less of the electorate in WA than in CA.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Hmm
My AP US History teacher from last year told me you could put money on some "famous three term senators from both parties" unexpecting lose in November. Could Patty Murray be one of those?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Wyden will be fine
Odd numbers for Murray. What would cause her to be less popular than Cantwell? I always thought it was the other way around. Still, don't see he losing unless Rossi changes his mind or Reichert jumps in.

[ Parent ]
I think we found our candidate here
I think the party realized neither of them will be jumping in, so they found Paul Akers,a self-funder. He is already on TV with an ad. If those numbers are accurate, we could have a race here.  

[ Parent ]
I thought Benton was the frontrunner?


[ Parent ]
We don't really know
There have been no primary polls. If Rossi or Reichert don't get in, it will likely be between them two. If Benton turns out to be a strong fundraiser, he may be. But if he is weak with fundraising, it will be Akers.

[ Parent ]
I've always thought that Murray was lightweight
compared to Cantwell. Maria has had a higher (and IMO more positive) profile in different fights such as HCR and civil rights.

[ Parent ]
For
someone who holds a leadership position in the Dem senate caucus, you would think Murray would be a little more visible. I guess she's more of a behind the scenes person than a smile at the camera person like Chuck Schumer. Hopefully Schumer will make a play for majority leader next year.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Murray is in leadership
That might be why her ratings are going down.

[ Parent ]
Note that Murray and Cantwall are basically equally-popular among Dems
Cantwell gets the leg-up because she's more popular among Indies and Republicans.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
There's little politics on air in Hawaii
Just spent a week in Maui - so it's not like I'd need to see anything there about HI-01. Charles Djou was making a few noises about some legislation in the local paper, and there was some local fundraiser for Mufi Hannemann (for Gov), but that's it.

But it's not like I spent a lot of time in Maui monitoring local news media... ;)



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