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IN-Sen, IN-08: Sources Say Ellsworth Will Run for Senate, Van Haaften for House

by: James L.

Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 11:42 AM EST


From the Evansville Courier & Press:

U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth will run for Senate, and state Rep. Trent Van Haaften will seek his seat in Congress, multiple Democratic sources said Thursday morning. [...]

The Indiana Democratic Party's 32-member central committee will determine Bayh's replacement. Anthony Long, the party's 8th Congressional District chairman, said he expected a Ellsworth's decision this morning. No official announcement has been made.

Meanwhile, Butch Morgan, the 2nd District chairman who also helms the St. Joseph's County Democratic Party, said bumping Ellsworth and Van Haaften up is the scenario he envisions.

Other Democratic sources close to Ellsworth and Van Haaften would not speak on the record, but confirmed that the two are working out the logistics of the situation now.

Howey Politics Indiana, the crew that broke the story about Dan Coats' re-entry into the political arena, is also reporting the same thing -- with an announcement by Ellsworth apparently set to come down sometime later today.

There's no question that Ellsworth out-classes his Republican opposition in this race. Dan Coats has been proven to be a pretty flawed candidate -- one of the very few GOP candidates that the DSCC has actually been able to land serious and solid hits against all cycle. It remains to be seen, however, whether those flaws will prove to be fatal in a year like this.

As for Van Haaften, he seems to be one of the more solid choices short of Evansville Mayor Jon Weinzapfel, who has already turned this race down. His bio is available here.

UPDATE: Rasmussen is quick to show up on the scene with a bucket of cold water:

IN-Sen (2/16-17, likely voters):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 32
Dan Coats (R): 46
Some other: 7
Not sure: 15

Brad Ellsworth (D): 27
John Hostettler (R): 46
Some other: 7
Not sure: 19

Brad Ellsworth (D): 30
Marlin Stutzman (R): 40
Some other: 9
Not sure: 21

Baron Hill (D): 32
Dan Coats (R): 48
Some other: 6
Not sure: 14

Baron Hill (D): 31
John Hostettler (R): 49
Some other: 5
Not sure: 15

Baron Hill (D): 33
Marlin Stutzman (R): 41
Some other: 7
Not sure: 19
(MoE: ±4.5%)

LATER UPDATE: In what's probably a sign of increasing coalescence around Ellsworth, state Senate minority leader Vi Simpson, who'd been mentioned somewhere around #4 on the totem pole of potential replacements (behind Ellsworth, Baron Hill, and Jonathan Weinzapfel), has pulled her name from consideration.

RaceTracker Wiki: IN-Sen | IN-08
James L. :: IN-Sen, IN-08: Sources Say Ellsworth Will Run for Senate, Van Haaften for House
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IN-Sen, IN-08: Sources Say Ellsworth Will Run for Senate, Van Haaften for House | 158 comments
IN
Um, did anyone see the Rasmussen poll of IN-SEN.  Ellsworth gets destroyed by any of the 3 Republicans.  Rasmussen is either going to be very right this time around or very wrong.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Yes, the Post should be updated
with the new Rasmussen Numbers.

AND I'm not surprised about those Numbers.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

This Seats is gone for the Dems.

[ Parent ]
You still going with you BS still
Maybe some more retirements will creep you up to make you happier ugh.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
IN
I mean come on, Obama at 44% Approval but Mitch Daniels at 70%???

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
I know dosen't make sense right...
And there was another poll taken that showed Obama with 55 percent, that makes more sense that the rating Scotty Ras gave him

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I'd
expect Indiana to be hit hard by the economic crisis. It is in the middle of the rust belt first of all! But how the hell does Mitch Daniels have a 70% approval rating?!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Wrong on Economy
The rust belt economic situation has been a problem sit long before the recent economic downturn! No way does this recent downturn compare to us northern mid-westerners to the 4-5 years before the recent downturn. Mid-westerners aren't down on Obama at a higher rate than elsewhere due to the economy.  
[ Parent ]
Yes, your freaking KOS Poll
Obama will never ever be over 50 % Approval in Indiana again. IN was a fluke for him in 2008 as well as NC.
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't write either off for good
but I'm pretty sure he wouldn't win either state THIS YEAR.  
[ Parent ]
Yes that pesky Markos
Damn that socalist for coming out with polls that aren't tilted like your golden boy Rasmussen. Actually his approval rating in IN is 55 and as for his win in NC and IN being a fluke, got any proof or are you talking out of your ass like always. He campaigned very hard to win those two states. They wrren't handed to him.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Ok...
You do realize that demographically speaking, Indiana is not much different from Ohio and Missouri. Hell, Indiana's always been more Republican than it should be given the demographics of the state.

As for North Carolina, that state has been moving left for a long time now, and will probably continue to do so (NC shares more in common with Virginia than it does with any of its southern neighbors).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I cant wait to see how Idaho shakes out in two decades
Lots and lots of urban growth in the Boise area and not nearly enough rural population to hold down the margins that will be coming from out of there in a few decades.
[ Parent ]
Kos pays for Research2000 to do polls
Are you accusing that respected polling organization of dishonesty?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
He is Pan, yes
Because Kos, a liberal PAYS R2k to do the polls, he thinks there's a liberal conspiracy in this. Kos just pays, R2k does the polling. Plus as you say in VT-Gov, Kos isn't the only client R2k has.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
If that is in fact the accusation
I'd like evidence for it from the accuser.

Moreover, as a daily reader of DailyKos, I will affirm that when the opinion polls he pays for come out very badly for the Democrats, he discloses them just as readily as the good results. No skewing is taking place in reporting.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Exactly Pan
Kos just pays to do polls on races other polling companies don't do. Whatever it shows the Dem up by 10 or down by 20 he discloses every poll, no BS, no hiding your right about that. That's another reason why I like Kos. I like his work, I like to polling he does, I like his no nonsense critiques and I like that he's honest, dosen't skew and dosen't hold back when it comes to his opinions whatever it's when he's on tv, his site or the column he writes for the Hill not sure if your framiliar with his work on that Pan.

It's like what Jerome Armstrong said, he's the blogfather.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Outta curiosity, where did he poll 55%?
What poll was that? The Kos poll measures "favorability" not approval (which are different things) and has him in the upper 40s. Are you referring to Gallup? Their state polls were a little useless, IMO - they were averages through all of 2009, meaning they were all skewed by his honeymoon period and told nothing about his position today.

These Rasmussen numbers seem a little silly to me - part of his spamming favorable poll numbers to drive the narrative. But his approval rating - 44% - seems reasonable in this climate.  

[ Parent ]
Yes so out of place
When he has 40% approval in states he won handily, we expect him to be very popular in a normally red state that he barely won?  
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
Since regardless people still like him and not a President that not want to be around like Bush was. So yeah it's not so out of place. And there states wherehe's got approvals in the low 40's and there states where his numbers are decent like VT for example where it's 65 percent. And with Ellsworth being a moderate, they can't tie him to the President if they wanted to so wrong there.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Look
I'm not gonna put rose tinted glasses on these poll numbers. It's great for you, and sucks for us. And these polls give merit to the reason why CQ and Charlie Cook changed the rating on this race to Lean Republican. It's only February and a lot can change. Hopefully Ellsworth can keep this race close. Especially since Dan Coats has given us so much ammo to shoot at him.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
IN
I Actually think 44% for Obama in Indiana right now is pretty good.  What was shocking to me was that Daniels was at 70%.  It makes no sense.  Indiana has been hit hard, why are they not blaming their Governor like every other state?  

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
Budget
In other states, budget crises are what is hurting governors. IIRC, Indiana was one of only two states last year that had a budget surplus, the other being ND.  
[ Parent ]
Yikes!
Talk about Kentucky de ja vu all over again. Though I'm sure once Ellsworth starts campaigning and airing ads, his poll numbers should start to rise. If you can find a silver lining here, Coats or any of the GOPer's isn't above 50%. Though I expected Obama to have a 54% disapproval rating down here.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Hill adn Ellsworth have the exact same numbers
translation: They are unknown Dem at the moment. Give them 2 months and the hole should close by a great deal.

Ellsworth has this one.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
This seat is not gone for the Dems
I'm not going to state my feelings one way or the other about Ras.  They are a pollster, and a pollster that is associated with the Republicans.

First off, only 1/9th of the state knows Ellsworth!  He hasn't run for a statewide office before, so most people that are voting for the Republicans is because they might think Ellsworth is a bleeding heart liberal.  That's hardly the case.  People know Coats, and they don't like him.  Hostettler has better name recognition from the 12 years he was in congress and the fact that he's been in the race for some time.  He's not going to be electable once everyone knows how bizzare he is.

Before you and your other "the sky is falling" comrades try to create a panic, let's wait until we have (a) some trendlines and (b) other pollsters test this race.  

I think Ellsworth will win.  Once Indiana realizes that he's not a liberal, but instead a moderate-conservative, they will realize that he's a credible candidate.  The tell-tale sign is that no Republican is over the 50% threshold.  The Republican primary will be bloody and will as a result drive their negatives up.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I think Ellsworth can win
I make no prediction to who will win at this time. But largely agree with your analysis.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
I expected that the first few polls will have Ellsworth behind.  Bayh's bizarre departure has left many feeling cheated.  Once his departure wears off, plus a nasty Republican primary fight, and Ellsworth introducing himself to the electorate, we will see the trendlines going his way.  

Obama's approval rating in Indiana would be hard to figure out.  I imagine a lot of his approval and disapproval is somewhat soft.  People are seeing some improvements, but it's not fast enough or it isn't to the degree they believe it should be.  I imagine that his Indiana approval/disaproval is around 48/48.  Probably 1/3 of both numbers is soft and could be swayed in a moments notice.  Bayh's departure may be a reason why his approval rating was 40%.   I don't know.  If that is the case, it will bounce back up.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Agree, except I WILL comment on Rasmussen......
I don't buy Hostettler over Ellsworth by 46-27 for one second, that's bullshit on its face.  Ellsworth crushed Hostettler when Hostettler was the incumbent by a stunning 62-38 just 4 years ago in the House seat Ellsworth picked up.  And Hostettler never raises any money, never even as an incumbent Congressman, and enters this race completely unknown statewide.  So no way he's sitting at 46% already statewide, with a 19-point lead over an incumbent anti-abortion southern Indiana (read:  conservative district) Congressman.

I can believe Coats over Ellsworth 46-32 in a trial heat poll out of the gate like this.  Coats held this very U.S. Senate seat just 12 years ago, and a lot of midterm voters this November will remember having voted for him in 1992.

But Coats' 46-32 margin over Ellsworth makes the Hostettler-Ellsworth 46-27 margin even less credible.  I understand Coats' vulnerabilities, but he was never scandal-plagued or otherwise hated by the Indiana public.  And I bet had Bayh not run for the seat in 1998 and Coats ran for reelection, Coats would have won easily given what then was a very thin Democratic bench in the state behind Bayh.  All that being the case, no way does Hostettler at the outset outperform Coats.

Ultimately I feel pretty good about Ellsworth's chances.  Yes it's a bad environment, but if anyone can pull it out for us in Indiana, it's Ellsworth.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It's Rasmussen Tek
Of course he's going to make it good for the GOP that's what he does and that's why for the most part we take his polls with a grain of salt, come back when it's PPP.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Goodness me
I read that and expected to see Blumenthal numbers. Then actually looked and see the unknown Ellsworth within striking distance with the Repubs well below 50 percent. I said I would wait for candidates and polls before rating it. Since this is Rasmussen I say tossup.
[ Parent ]
The campaign just started
Ellsworth has eight months to campaign and raise his name recognition. I wouldn't put too much credibility into a poll done at this point in time. Marco Rubio, for instance, went from having 3 points in the polls to leading Florida's former political colossus Charlie Crist in less than that amount of time.
[ Parent ]
Great comparison
I also believe that a nasty primary fight will happen, and as a result Hostettler will win the race.  Coats has too many ghosts in his closet.  

Once Ellsworth proves that he's not a Democrat in the mold of the National Party, but instead is a Democrat in the mold of a moderate-conservative Indiana candidate, he will be fine.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I wish Hostettler were the GOP nominee, but he won't be......
Hostettler was notorious in Congress for refusing to raise any money.  And because of that he was always targeted by Dems, even though he was a conservative in a conservative district.

He's going to have the same problem as a Senate candidate, refusing to hit the phones or glad-hand or do anything else to seek out lobbyist or other rich people's money.

And without money, he's toast against Coats statewide.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
you might be right
I forgot about Hostettler's funding issues.  

I'm still not convinced that Coats will win.  Maybe one of the other GOP names will come into play.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Like who Sultzman?
Not a chance. In the GOP primary it will come down to two weak candidates: Coats and Hostettler. I was reading up on Hostettler in wikipedia. Very dangerous man.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Funny thing, though, he voted AGAINST the Iraq War......
That's right, John Hostetler was one of the few Rethug Congresscritters to vote "no" on the war.  And he bragged about it in a 2006 campaign ad, when the war had become so unpopular that his vote was an asset.

Doesn't make up for his being otherwise crazy, but at least he's one eye-popping vote shy of lockstep wingnut lemming.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
He
voted no on the war because he is sooo conservative. Yes I know it sounds stupid but he voted against it because he is so far right, it was not a sensible vote whatsoever. It is kind of like when Dennis Kucinich voted against HCR because it wasn't progressive enough.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly
I bet if Bush and Hostettler were still in office and Bush asked Congress to vote on a resolution to bomb Iran or Pakistan, Hostettler would be there right with him.

You know he didn't even endorse a Republican for President in '08 not even Ron Paul. He endorsed Constitution Candidate Chuck Baldwin.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Yeah but I think he voted againist it
For other reasons and one of them not being the right thing to do. wingers like Ron Paul and Jimmy Duncan voted againist it as well.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Sultzman came to mind
I've read on another blog that Sultzman was an up and coming star.  I read up on him and was not impressed.  I could see this primary become something like the Texas Governors GOP primary where someone comes up and challenges Kay Bailey for 2nd.

I don't know.  Both Coats and Hostettler are weak.  A promising young candidate could be the answer, but you are probably right.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I meant Stutzman
long day at the office

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Look
at the Senate race in Ohio right now, Brunner still has a fair shot of winning the nomination even though she only has 60K COH. She is doing this because progressives LOVE her and care less about her money woes.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Do
you really think the tea partiers care about the quality of the candidates in terms of political skill? Hell no! Look at David Hoffman and Bob Dold. Also there have been a total of 3 tea parties in my county in the last 6 months, so it is a big force in the state. These people just care about whether or not a candidate is a "true" conservative. There is a small chance that they will back that no one state senator instead, but in my view there is close to no chance Coats gets the nomination.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
INRepublican, that's a real good comparison
Comparing this with FL-Sen. When Rubio first got into the race he was polling low and NO ONE thought he had a chance, neither did I. Guess what happened. Rubio engaged into a bloody primary with Crist, dragged Crist down and everyday is looking like he'll win the primaty and succeed Mel Martinez/George LeMeiux in the Senate. I can see the same here between Coats and Hostettler only difference Ellsworth can beat these guys while Kendrick Meek dosen't stand a chance, never did even if Crist crushed Rubio.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I looked at the numbers...
...and I knew before I scrolled down thow took the poll.  Is that bad?  Hopefully we can have some independent numbers from somewhere else to give us a better indicator of the landscape.

As for Rasmussen itself Nate had a good explanation of this awhile back.  They are using a different skew of how they project turnout than other pollsters. From the numbers they've been giving us hopefully they are making a bad guess.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
It's going to be a hard slog
but when you think about it, it's not a terrible option for him. The Republicans are very likely to pair him with Pete Visclosky next year, so he might not even have a seat to run in for long.

On the issues, he's even worse than Bayh--if that's possible. The best I can say is that he'll be better than Coats.  

Cillizza quotes Anka
"Democrats are going to lose Bayh's Senate seat and will probably lose the seat of the House member that runs for it," said a senior House Democratic aide granted anonymity to speak candidly. "The focus on what's best for the Senate is making Members ask whether the White House cares about a Democratic majority in the House."

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

BS then, BS now.

Agreed
Oh and love the quote by the aide who didn't have the balls to reveal who he really is lol.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Van Haaften sounds okay
Former prosecutor, leadership in the IN House. Also, leafing through his legislative record, he introduced a resolution urging congress to pass the climate security act, which could be an indication of his voting record; probably a Blue Dog, but maybe a potential vote on key issues like cap/trade (more like Baron Hill than Ellsworth?). He does support was sounds like a concealed carry gun law, and he also supported a strengthening of local ethics/lobbying law.
I checked him out too
I'd agree with that analysis...he's fairly Blue Dog-esque, but probably at least a smidge to the left of Ellsworth. And he seems like a pretty strong candidate--if he can win, I would definitely be happy with that result. And with Ellsworth running statewide, I have a feeling he'll have some solid coattails for Van Haaften in his district.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Those Ras numbers smell of bullshit to me
I don't buy for a second that Hostettler, of all people, has anywhere near a 20-point lead over anyone in Indiana.

If more polling confirms this, then fine, but right now, this borders on the ridiculous.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

So Ellsworth trails the guy....
... he beat by 22 points in 2006 (in a Republican leaning district) by 19 points now? Ok. I am not usually one to bash to Rasmussan but this result is a little hard for me to believe.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
I can...
It's Rasmussen, he always release polls like this to prop up the GOP. I don't believe for a second Ellsworth trails Host by 19 points. I'll wait for more polling to come out.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Smelly BS at that
How is Ellsworth so far back against Hostettler, the guy he beat just three years ago by 20 points in a more-conservative-than-Indiana-generally district?

The fact that Ellsworth does WORST against Hostettler, when they've got to have the highest level of overlap between voters who know both, leads me to believe that something very weird is going on...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Completely name rec
Stutzman 40
Ellsworth 36
Hostettler 31
Hill 26
Coats 19

Those are the "Not sure" numbers for the impressions question. Clearly, Ellsworth is far stronger than Hill. Hostettler is a terrible campaigner and Coats has the least to grow from 46 percent. Gonna be tough but doable. Lets just not whine when Brad takes some uncomfortable positions.

[ Parent ]
What are you getting at here
That this poll is basically what were thinking of, a poll basically based on name rec.

Believe me, I won't whine when Brad takes some uncomfortable positions, I expect him to do so.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Pretty much
Plus the lean of the state and the environment.
[ Parent ]
That's what I thought
But I think as the campaigns goes full force that will change as Ellsworth pretty much announced he in today and he a strong candidate and a good campaigner and despite the fact he'll face weak opposition, it certainly helps.

But some advice to Brad: Don't make any gaffes regaring the Colts or take a month off from campaigning. You'll get Coakleyed doing that lol.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
So...
Democrats are poised to get their best possible candidate to replace Evan Bayh in the form of Brad Ellsworth and are lining up a highly credible successor for Ellsworth's House seat... and this is bad news?

Jeez, the lengths that the MSM will go to in order to advance the "DEMZ ARE DOOOOMED!!!" narrative never ceases to amaze me.

Look, Bayh's retirement was bad news for Democrats, plain and simple. But as James noted, the timing of the announcement really could not have been more advantageous. Both Coats and Hostettler are deeply flawed candidates, whereas Ellsworth has a proven - and recent - track record as an outstanding campaigner. Right now, the Republicans' leads in the polls (especially Coats's) are probably more a function of name recognition over anything else, and I would be very surprised indeed if we didn't see them tightening as the campaign actually got under way. In this sense Indiana is shaping up similarly to Delaware: in both cases, the GOP is (in all probability) running elder statesmen-types with a history of winning office at the state level but without having had competitive races in a long, long time, while the Dems' are running younger, feisty upstarts with potentially perfect statewide profiles, yet who are hindered dually by low name recognition and a generally negative national environment for their party.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

Agree, except....
Coates is a much weaker candidate than Castle, although he's running in a much more Republican state.  
[ Parent ]
Not to mention
Hostettler is criticialy insane.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, there's also that

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen poll...
More of a function of name recognition and Coates and Hostettler being seen as generic Republican. Unlike yesterday's results showing Ron Wyden under 50 (which I flat out don't believe, I think Rasmussen got a bad result), I believe these results, but I would also argue that it's way too early to poll (or to panic) about this race. I don't think you'll really get an idea of where this race is headed until September.  
I'm not panicing at all
We got nine months, a strong Dem that runs good campaigns and a group of weak GOPers. I'm fine right now.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I don't
I don't buy for a second that someone like Hostettler, a guy who lost his bellwether (for the state) district by 20 points, has a 19-point lead over anyone, regardless of how bad (for the Republicans) the 2006 cycle was and how good (for Republicans) the 2010 cycle is.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
The link
Is for CA-Sen.
Yup
When I heard that Ellsworth had an internal poll in the field this morning, I just KNEW that Rasmussen would come out with a Republican-leaning result in an attempt to dissuade him from running, just like they've done with Chris Coons in Delaware, Charlie Melancon in Louisiana, et al.  They've been doing it all cycle.  On the other side meanwhile, they give great results to Mike Castle, Tommy Thompson, Dino Rossi, Mark Kirk, etc in the hopes of getting them to jump in.  

This fantasy world that Rasmussen is living in, with their ridiculous likely voter screen, isn't going to hold water in November.  Accordingly, they'll probably adjust their horse race numbers in the democratic direction as we come down the stretch in the final month and a half of the campaign.  

I just hate how they are trying to influence the narrative and try to get certain candidates to run/not run because of the R or D by their name.  It's bull.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

The real BS is
Democrats taking it as gospel.
[ Parent ]
Yep
And there polls are far from the gospel.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
To be fair, no poll this far out should be taken as gospel
Rasmussen have a Repub bias, but you could argue Research 2000 has a Dem bias (and unlike Rasmussen, you can argue Research 2000 has been contradicted by election results, particularly with VA Gov last year).

Bottom line, Rasmussen has every right to poll this far out, but we here have the right to ridicule or ignore this poll result, whether (like me) you think any poll taken this far in advance should be pretty much discarded or (like many people on this site) you just hate Rasmussen.  

[ Parent ]
Er
Not discarding it at all. Just stating that he has a clear lean to the right. Best example being his Calfornia numbers. If the Field Poll says Boxer up double digits then she is up double digits not barely ahead. I agree Research 2000 leans to the Dems.
[ Parent ]
I do think R2K has a slight Dem bias
But the difference between them and Scotty Ras is Scotty Ras tries to prop his polls up to make the GOP look good. You don't really see that with PPP or R2k.

But to be fair, your right no poll this far out should be taken as gospel. Ellsworth hasn't began to campaign yet, Hostettler and Coats will more likely engage in a nasty primary that will bloody up the winner and you got to remember ALL polls should be taken with a grain of salt. I may be only 22 but only thing i've learned so far is that polls are only a snapshot in time and change reguarly. One day a poll can have you up by five then the next have you down by 15. They change and fluxate as peoples minds change and as the campaign goes on. But I don't have to tell the seasoned members here who are old enough to be my dad and who's been following politics since Carter. That wasn't a knock it just shows how long you been around.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Yup
When I heard that Ellsworth had an internal poll in the field this morning, I just KNEW that Rasmussen would come out with a Republican-leaning result in an attempt to dissuade him from running, just like they've done with Chris Coons in Delaware, Charlie Melancon in Louisiana, et al.  They've been doing it all cycle.  On the other side meanwhile, they give great results to Mike Castle, Tommy Thompson, Dino Rossi, Mark Kirk, etc in the hopes of getting them to jump in.  

This fantasy world that Rasmussen is living in, with their ridiculous likely voter screen, isn't going to hold water in November.  Accordingly, they'll probably adjust their horse race numbers in the democratic direction as we come down the stretch in the final month and a half of the campaign.  

I just hate how they are trying to influence the narrative and try to get certain candidates to run/not run because of the R or D by their name.  It's bull.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Does anybody really believe
He didn't poll Bayh again when the Coats news broke? Me neither.
[ Parent ]
He did poll Bayh
When it looks like Bayh was still running. But it wasn't with Coats, it was during the short time Mike Pence was thinking of a run. He polled Bayh and Pence.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
But why didn't he go straight back and do another with Coats? Not like he worries about doing too many. And in every other case he is so quick to jump in whenever there is talk of even the possibility of a new Republican entry. Not that it matters but it is suspicious.
[ Parent ]
I am with you
It is very suspicious that he released this poll so quickly, but he never got around to releasing the Bayh/Coats numbers.
[ Parent ]
I was waiting this from Rasmussen the next step for they can be Florida

Well, Democratic Party is having big troubles with the recruitment for senate. Without the frontrunners Democratic Party has hard work for keep the seats.

Someone of they should reconsider...

Question about your comment
When you bring up recruitment problems in the Senate you meaning as a whole or the state you brought up: FL. Because elsewhere the Dems got alot of good candidates running.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
The 8th
Repubs are stuck with Larry Bucshon then? Anybody know much about him? I see he has only raised $100k so far.
According to politics1.com
There are various GOPers running that seat.

Larry Bucshon (R) - Cardiologist & Navy Veteran
Billy Mahoney (R) - Disc Jockey & Tea Party Activist
Kristi Risk (R) - Community Activist, Sunday School Teacher & Homemaker
John Snyder Jr. (R) - Businessman & Ex-US Deputy Under Secretary of Commerce
Dan Stockton (R) - Auto Worker
Steve Westell (R) - State Conservation Officer & Tea Party Activist


22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
So who is the frontrunner?
Snyder has an attractive resume.
[ Parent ]
Can't tell you
I think it be Snyder as well because of his resume as well, of course money talks in politics and have no idea how much he has raised so far.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
This looks too much like generic R Vs Generic D
considering both the anti-incumbent climate, specifically towards the dems, it's not surprising, nor insurmountable.  Ellsworth is a good candidate, but he will have to run a GREAT campaign against either a washington insider (coats) or a lazy loon (hostettler).  This will be the first competitive open senate race in years and a great view of where indiana stands on the poly spectrum.  was Obama's win the same as reagan winning mass, or is Indiana really becoming a swing state?  we shall see.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
I'd love to see these numbers again after
3 months of Coats and Hostettler spending millions against each other.  
Good point
They are both going to go at it, esepcially now that running against someone more beatable than Bayh is the prize.  Andy I guarentee you that no one wins an Indiana Republican primary by running to the center -- they are going to out-crazy each other, and Ellsworth should have a solid claim to the center in the general.
[ Parent ]
Hostettler won't have any money to spend......
He never raises any money.  That was his fatal flaw as a Congressman, and why he was always targeted by Dems even though he was a conservative in a conservative district.

Unless he goes against his entire history as a candidate, he's going to resist dialing for dollars and will be a non-factor in the "primary."

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I really want Hostettler to get the nod, particularly if Ellsworth is going to be our candidate, but I don't see any real way for him to be competitive with Coats. He could've taken out Stutzman, I think, but the tactics that kept him alive in the 8th (aggressive outreach to local church groups, religious conservatives, etc.) aren't going to work as well in a statewide primary.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I
Talked to a friend of my dad's today and we happen to discuss this race. Well he is a true independent, who always votes for the candidate not party. For instance he voted Bush twice but Obama last time, He always votes third party when its Hill Vs. Sodrel because he hates them both, and well I always go to him, because he is a good place to see how independents feel. He said he would probably vote Coats simply because he is experienced and what not, later today I emailed him and article that explained Coats recent controversies and I asked him what he planned to do now. He told me Coats can go back to North Carolina. Right now people no NOTHING about any of these people, but give them time and they will, and don't write off Indiana just yet, us Hoosiers are pretty dam smart and will elect Ellsworth.

Now there have been many who have stated that Obama's victory in Indiana was a fluke. Well let me tell you something, I made probably over 10 hours worth of calls, and I went door to door, and I worked very hard with my local GOTV effort. I saw Obama at a rally once in the general election, and saw Biden twice. I received pro Obama flyers, and saw many Obama television ads. Now in 2004 guess how many calls I made? None! Guess how many times I went door to door? None! Guess how many times I saw Kerry or Edwards? None! I don't remember seeing any adds either. The exact same can be said in 2000 with Al Gore. Barack Obama was the first democrat to win Indiana since LBJ because he was probably one of the first to actual contest it since LBJ. People always write us of as republican and walk away, well Obama was different, and it was NO fluke that he won.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Believe me Hoosier
Outside of a couple of people here, no one (including me) is writing of IN-Sen. I know since the campaign is nine months away Ellsworth is a strong Dem and campaigner has plenty of time to introduce himself to the rest of the state and while that goes going watch the nasty primary in which political blood will be spilled.

I never thought Obama's win in IN was a fluke because I know how hard him, Alexrod, Plouffe and his supporters worked to win that state, same goes with the CD in NE.

Oh BTW, I like your dad just because of what he said about Coats lol.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
but I have heard a lot of people on this thread say things to that effect, and I just wanted to clear the air. BTW it was a friend of my dad, not my dad.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I do think they only contested it
Because the polls shockingly showed it close after the primary. He can thank Hillary for that.
[ Parent ]
True
I think everyone thought Hillary was going to win it by a cakewalk but only won it by two points, heck there a small part of the night where we thought Obama was going to win it. Guess you got to give Hillary credit on that and credit for strghenthing him up for the GE againist McCain and Tina Fey...I mean Sarah Palin. My mistake lol.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
well
there was a Selzer poll in summer of 2007 showing generic dem leading generic rep, those numbers never really budged throughout the entire campaign.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Couple said it was a fluke, but not many
But yeah, glad you cleared the air on thst. BTW sorry I read it wrong thought it was your dad, not your dad's friend. My mistake.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Agreed, Indiana was an overlooked state by Dems for a long time
In hindsight, Obama's win should not have been that shocking. Demographically and culturally, Indiana really isn't all that different from Ohio. Ohio is generally a slightly Republican-leaning, moderately-conservative state that is nevertheless a swing state. There really was no reason Indiana shouldn't have been seen the same way before 2008.

Even between LBJ's '64 win and Obama's '08 win, a number of factors should have made clear that Indiana was gettable for Dems. Except for the 1980s, the state Democratic Party has generally been quite strong. The state has routinely sent plenty of Democrats - even fairly liberal ones - to Congress. And even Indiana's leading Republicans tend to be fairly moderate. Dick Lugar and Mitch Daniels are the textbook Indiana Republicans, not people like Jim DeMint. And Indiana even had a long history as a presidential swing state, right up through the 1940s.

All those factors should have clued Democrats in that Indiana was winnable, at least under the right conditions. Yet aside from a late play by Bill Clinton in '96, they never really tried. I think both Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter could have credibly contested the state, for example. Obama was just the first to do so in a long time.  

[ Parent ]
Very True
Espically how it's no different from OH and the type of GOPers it sends to Congress, textbook conservatives and not radicals and maybe Obama's win will send a message to Dems running for Prez in the future that IN can be a contEsted state if you campaign and work hard in it to win it.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
to those who say that it was a fluke that Obama won North Carolina and Indiana are insulting the campaign machine that brought him into the White House into the first place. He didn't win those states just because he was riding a wave like Reagan winning Massachusetts and Hawaii in 1984 were. He worked hard to win North Carolina and Indiana.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Another factor in '08,
a good chunk of NW Indiana is in the Chicago media area.
(I wish I knew what % of IN's population that covers).
I think a bunch of Illinois's enthusiasm for their native son leaking over next door into Indiana contributed.
[ Parent ]
I think a decent part
Their area along with the areas of Indy, South Bend and Evansville population wise make up the most on IN. Yeah the enthuaism of the Chi media market area in IN helped but it also helped that Obama unlike Gore and Kerry actually contested the state by campaigning there, running ads, having people GOTV there etc. that certainly helped him winning IN as well.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Methinks
Our spammy troll from the other night got banned, just returned, got rumbled and banned again. Good riddance Mr Coats.
Same here
I tried to reply to a comment of his would it wouldn't let me then went to the my coments section and looked up the comments I wrote to him and they got erased. Guess James and David were watching and laid the hammer down qick and fast. Can't believe that moron thought I was a troll, nerve of the guy. 2 to 1 you could be right, it may of been Anka.

Thanks James and David

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
The troll comment aimed at you was rich
And a dead giveaway. But we should move on.
[ Parent ]
Real rich, yes
But yes let's move on. The troll is dead and ain't coming back.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Feel good about IN-Sen and IN-8
I think this about the best scenario we could have hoped for in retaining these seats for the party. I feel fairly confident at this point we have very solid odds at retaining both these seats at this point if these are the candidates.

Democrat: TN-8
After reading all the comments here
I'm wondering if there could be a scenario where the primary campaign between Coats and Hostettler becomes so toxic and they damage each other so much, that a third candidate (e.g. possibly Stutzman) flying under the mudslinging might win.

(I'm assuming there are no runoffs so that a plurality wins.)

Hostettler seems to be nutty enough that he'll have no restrains on his campaigning. Yes he needs money, but I'm assuming he'll have all the enthusiasm of the teabaggers, being the anti-Coats.
And have we heard from the CfG yet? With a suddenly open seat, they may be suddenly interested...

Hey anything's possible in the GOP primary
But Sultzman is so unknown that he'll be a non-figure in the race. As for the CfG they haven't made any statements regarding IN-Sen but would not be suprised if they send some love over to Hostettler as I doubt they give anything to Coats.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Ellsworth...who cares
So our best hope is one conservaDEM getting replaced by an even more conservaDEM.  Almost rather have "over the hill" Coats win and retire in 6 years when the  a progressive might have a chance.  If Ellsworth wins we are stuck with a Lieberman lite for 18-24 years. Why do we want more Lincolns, Nelsons and Bayhs?  Baron Hill looks much better.
Sigh
I knew this was coming. Baron Hill polls worse and is better known. More important to actually try and hold the seat. Worry about him later.
[ Parent ]
Been there, done that
Sick of being told to hold my nose and vote for the "electable" choice...and promised that once elected we get votes our way.  We had 60 seats and DINO's in the mold of Ellsworth are the reason the base is turned off...
[ Parent ]
GOP control?
Let me guess...they already have control with 41 seats?
[ Parent ]
U got it...
The Republicans managed to pass pretty much whatever they wanted with 51-55 seats for years and are more effective with 40-41 than we with 59-60.  Thank you Evan Bayh, Blanche Lincoln, Max Baucas, Mary Landrieu, Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman...we need more like you...go Ellsworth!
[ Parent ]
I get that it is a nonsensical argument
That Bush never had to compromise is a myth.
[ Parent ]
Conspiracy
if you don't mind me saying it is best just to drop it. These FDL, open left types can't be reasoned with, believe me it is an endless debate.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
No problem
You are correct.
[ Parent ]
Tough, because it is the truth
There are states that elect Boxer's, Feingold's and Sander's and there are states that simply don't and IN is one of them. Hate to break it to but it's the truth and if it wasn't for the DINO'S we would have a majority.

Now i'm offically done. There's no reason to go on because me and you will go on and on and I don't have all night to debate you, let's agree to disagree and move on like everyone else has.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
In
this cycle I will take Ellsworth. I would much rather have Hill as a Senator, but Ellsworth is probably the best shot we have. Hill comes with a lot of baggage, and isn't even that popular in his own district, which I happen to live in. Also I hate to be rude but that is the stupidest bit of FDL type thing I have ever heard. If Coats win he will likely serve two terms, and if you think we will elect a liberal in the state of Indiana then you are dead wrong. The only progressive we have is Andre Carson, and there is no chance in hell he would ever win statewide. I would be happy to have Ellsworth as my Senator.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Why bother then?
I would rather have 51 progressives in the Senate than a 59-60 seat majaority with 10-12 conservaDEMS.  Do I think a Barbara Boxer could win Indiana?...prob no.  But Obama, a progressive, won IN and Hill won his "red" district in a landslide versus the former GOP congressman.  Ellsworth is extremely conservative...more so than Bayh (who has become a pain himself). So now, a closed insider process will choose a nominee (prob Ellsworthless).  No vote by the party faithfull who might like a choice in the matter.  Will these folks be there for Ellsworth like they were for Obama?  doubt it.  He is a dem Scozzafava...picked by party insiders in an undemocratic process and out of step with the base.
[ Parent ]
I
am not going to do this crap. I know I will not be able to able to reason with you. Lets just agree to disagree.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Oh Jesus
I'm saying this once then you and all of us are ending it because I will not stay in the middle of the night debateing this with you. IN is a state where they only elect moderates, people like Andre Carson don't stand a chance statewide. Ellsworth fits the bill and he's the best electoraly because of his strongness of a campaigner and mod voting record. Yeah Obama won it but he had to work his tail off just to win by a couple of pointa. These folks will be there for Ellsworth because he's the type of guy who can win statewide espically againist weak compitition like Coats and Hostettler and as much as you want to deny it, it's because of the Ben Nelson's and Mary Landrieu's of America that we got control of the Senate because every state dosen't elect Baebara Boxer's and Russ Feingold's, hate to break it to you. But as much as you hate DINO's those in some states are the only ones that can win statewide but aince you don't seem to understand electoral politics you can't grasp.

As for Ellsworth being picked by the party, who cares. It's how they do it there ano only you is really complaining about it. Sorry but your way off and dead wrong on this

I'm done with this, let's just agree to disagree and move on because I don't got all night to debate this with you. You want to debate and complain about this, going to FDL and OpenLeft is best suited.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Hill's baggage
What is it? I get the larger point you're making about Ellsworth being a better candidate for the Senate, but I'm asking about the side issue.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
During
the god awful month which is August Hill was holding a HCR town hall. Hill yelled down a college student who was taping him at the event, he shouted loudly "This is my town hall and I make the rules!", he was referring to a policy that he has where you can't film him unless you are a member of the press (don't ask me). Well of course this made it on youtube where it got a HUGE number of clicks. That is going to make a really bad negative add. I should point out that I know for a fact that the student was a conservative activist, and can prove it, although she claims she was just doing a school assignment. Hill is known for having a close relationship with Obama, and voted for the stimulus, HCR, and honestly worst of all (in political terms only) cap and trade. Also he has never been that well liked in his own district, he has only stayed so long because people just slightly hate Sodrel worse.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Could i get your on the ground perspective
about why Hill isn't well liked?
[ Parent ]
IDK
I just get that feeling from people in the district, a lot of people think he is a career politician and he always runs a really negative campaign.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Jeez, here we go
Sorry to break it to you, but those types of Dems are the only ones that get elected in IN, you saw the "polling" down by Rasmussen. Hill polls worse than Ellsworth and Ellsworth been hin shorter than Hill. As much as I like a good liberal like Andre Carson to win, it will never happen. The faster you get that the better. Sorry but this isn't a state where progressives win statwide. I rather have a Dem that's votes with us 50 percent of the time than zero which will be the percentage Coats will vote with us.

As for Coats, if he wins, he'll be in longer than just one term i'll tell you that. Sorry but your dead wrong

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
A "ConservaDem" is not always a bad thing
I'm not a fan of litmus testing our candidates on how they will vote on a given piece of legislation.  A "ConservaDem" will still vote with us on the majority of our legislation while the Dan Coats of the world won't vote with us any of the time.  

We can't make the "good" the enemy of the perfect.  Ellsworth is a good Democrat, and he will help us pass progressive legislation.  Sure, he may want to compromise on certain issues, but that's what the Democratic party is about.  We are a big tent party.  We should tolerate liberals, progressives, moderates and conservatives in our caucus.  We need to support them and help them with our cause:  to do what is best for our nation.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
To those who would advance the cause of an Ellsworth candidacy
He looks great on paper, sure, but could someone ease my concern that this cannot become another Melancon vs Vitter; a popular congressman in a conservative state finding it very, very difficult to dislodge even an opponent who is damaged goods? There are, of course, significant differences between Coats and Vitter, chief of which is that Vitter is an incumbent and his improprieties happened in the ancient past in that special warped timeline that is American politics, but I have a nagging feeling that even Ellsworth's many personal qualities will be unable to surmount the state's natural lean, no matter Obama's stunning victory two whole years ago.
n/t
And this isn't to any way belittle the campaign Melancon's running or to douse any hope that he might beat Vitter, but he's got a huge headwind with him now.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
There are, of course, significant differences between Coats and Vitter, chief of which is that Vitter is an incumbent

Which is why I find the comparison inapt.

Coats, currently, is a lobbyist. Ellsworth is a member of Congress. And if there's any profession that's more hated than members of Congress right now, it's lobbyists. Plus, Ellsworth has proven he can win big, repeatedly, in a Republican-leaning district.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
And some other differences.
Obama is still liked in Indiana, with 55% approval in the state, making it unlikely bedfellows with states like New York, California, and Massachusetts, plus it is trending our way. Obama is about as popular as the flu in Louisiana, which is trending away from us. I feel much better about Ellsworth's prospects than Melancon's.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I just hope it's not misplaced optimism
It's just that I remember back in August when there was a great deal of expectation that Melancon would at LEAST push Vitter close - it looks anything but right now, and absolutely nobody is even talking about LA as a takeover opportunity right now.  
[ Parent ]
What else do you suggest?
Are you saying you are in give up now camp?
[ Parent ]
Sounds like it
There's was no great sense of optimism here with LA-Sen as there is with IN-Sen because LA is a state that is trending away from us fast. It was great that we landed a credible to challenge Vitter but in no way no one thought Melancon's a shoo-in to beat Vitter...No one regardless of Vitter's skeltons that don't seem to hamper his campaign, that's why no one has much hope for that seat

IN-Sen is different because the GOPers vying for the nom got problems that are beyond what Vitter did. Coats is a guy who hasn't won a race since '92 and hasn't held office since '98, a majoy lobbyist and a guy before this race was living in NC. The other being an insane ex-Congressman who once brought a loaded gun on a plane. Plus IN is a state where Obama and Dems are stilln liked and got a guy running who's got a record that can appeal to statewide voters and can prove he can win as he represented a R+8 district and is a good campaigner. All this is the reason why LA-Sen and IN-Sen can't be compared.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
Far from it
I'd love it, just love it if someone like Brad Ellsworth managed to eke out a victory in Indiana come November, it's just that as an R+7 state there are significant inbuilt Republican advantages that even someone like Ellsworth (assuming he's all he's made out to be and that he even gets in the race, both of which remain to be determined - he only took office in 2007, after all) would have a hard time surmounting in the best of years, let alone in the climate he's going to face this year. Still, hoping for the best, and perhaps you could write this off to misplaced pessimism, but I could unfortunately foresee a non-entity like Coats being swept in essentially by default.
[ Parent ]
but I could unfortunately foresee a non-entity like Coats being swept in essentially by default.
Not in anti-DC year and Coats is the most DC candidate in there having been a lobbyist for years and before getting into the race didn't even live in IN but NC. Yeah there's a built-in GOP advantage that's why liberals like Andre Carson have no chance of winning statewide. Ellsworth has. Despite only been in Congress since 2007 he wasn't a nobody, he was the Sheriff of one of the most populated counties in IN, Vanderburgh. That's nothing to pass over. He has a moderate record that can appease statrwide moderate IN voters and can prove he can win in tough districts for Dems to win and is a good campaigner. That mixed in the fact that his GOP opposition is made up of a guy who's last election he won was in 1992 and hasn't held office since 1998. Has been a lobbyist for years and left the left for NC only to rent a placy in Indy to run for Senate while his other GOP opponent is a complete loon who for 12 years could never get entrenched in his  R+8 district, despite the Legislature making it more GOPish for him, lost to Ellsworth by 19 points in '06 and brought a loaded gun onto the plane.

Believe me, your wrong, Ellsworth can keep this for us because of al this. This is misplaced pessmisism. You wsnt to write off a seat write off ND and say hello to Senator John Hoeven.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
And some other differences.
Obama is still liked in Indiana, with 55% approval in the state, making it unlikely bedfellows with states like New York, California, and Massachusetts, plus it is trending our way. Obama is about as popular as the flu in Louisiana, which is trending away from us. I feel much better about Ellsworth's prospects than Melancon's.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I'm skeptical of the 55% figure
But to compare Indiana to Louisiana in 2010 is like comparing either to Oklahoma in 1994.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
PlusNot sure of 55 percent but regsrdless Obama is liked in thr Stste and a Dem like Ellsworth can win in IN espically againist a ex-senator who's a lobbyist and carperbagger and a ex-congressman who's insane. And because the guys got a good record that can appeal to statewide voters and is a strong campaigner

Obama as the other poster pointed out is hated in LA and will always be no matter what, smage goes with the rest of the party. Melancon's run was more of a sucide move because no matter what he be gone due to redistricting, might as well try and go out in style thus the Senate run. There's reason for optimism in IN-Sen, there's reasons for pessimism in LA-Sen. And your right Conspiracy, to compare Indiana to Louisiana in 2010 is like comparing either to Oklahoma in 1994 and that's justv rediclous trying to compare the two.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
IN and LA electorates are very different
I would contend that the IN electorate prefers fairly moderate conservatives compared to the electorate LA, or any other southern state for that matter. Thus, the "ideological divide" to be bridged by a Democrat in IN is much narrower in terms of reaching out to, and winning over, the margin of conservative voters needed for victory.

Democrat: TN-8
[ Parent ]
Open seat versus incumbency
That makes a difference too. May I also dare say Hoosiers are in general more racially tolerant on balance? That probably matters with regard to presidential approval and the relative headwind.
[ Parent ]
What are you getting at here Conspiracy
Elaborate, if you please.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Obama aproval lower in LA
Partly because of race. Dems will find it easier running in states where the president is more popular.
[ Parent ]
I thought that's what you were getting at
I agree with that statement. Swine Flu in LA is more uber popular than Obama and that will never change. In Indiana your right Obama's popularity is alright there and that will make it a bit easier for Ellsworth to win statewide. That and because of the other things I named above.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I can agree with that statements
Take a look at some of the GOPers that IN elected statewide and the ones LA has elected statewide. IN has elected textbook conservatives like Lugar while LA elects radicals like Vitter and Jindal.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Lugar
I actually like the guy. He doesn't use his position on the foreign relations committee to go on the Sunday talk shows and trash Obama on foreign policy like Susan Collins does with national security. He even said that it was unfair and not warranted that Dick Cheney and the other Republicans were trashing Obama on foreign policy 24/7. He's from the old breed of Republicans that consisted of John Warner, Lincoln Chafee, and Chuck Hagel.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I think him and Obama have a good working relationship
I remember when Obama was a Senator him and Lugar went over to Iraq together to tour the country and meet with the military. Lugar is the type of Republican like the three you named and Bob Inglis that I actually like and respect because none are radicals like DeMint and Vitter and these guys actually want to get things done, there respectful guys and yeah Lugar dosen't go on the sunday morning shows bashing the foreign policy of the President just because Obama is a Dem, he's a fair guy I agree. while people like DeMint are the guys that make the GOP the party of no. Of course like you said these types of GOPers are a old AND dying breed.  

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Dick Lugar is my favorite Republican
He is actually quite conservative but he always gives the sense you can work with him in good faith.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
He dosen't seem to have the ability to blow off Dems but to work with them and not feel dirty about if you know what I mean. Can't say the same for GOPers like DeMint, Vitter and Inhofe.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Has anyone polled Mellencamp?
Seems like the buzz for John Cougar is gaining steam, ref http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
Twitter is abuzz with the rumor and three separate Facebook groups have been set up, with the largest boasting about 2,000 members.

Yeah, I know, it's just Twitter and Facebook and still seems like a pipe dream, but these same channels are keeping Palin relevant to the discussion.

But this seems to be the right kind of year for a non-politican.

Nevertheless, Ellsworth does seem like a good fit.

I haven't seen it
But all the talk about the Cougar, i'm tempted to see some numbers, just for fun you know. If Kos ever polls this race I like to see him poll Mellencamp as well as polling the likely choice Ellsworth just to see the numbers.

But yeah Ellsworth does seems like a good fit as well.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen, IN-08: Sources Say Ellsworth Will Run for Senate, Van Haaften for House | 158 comments

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